"Mostly worried about warranty and reliability at this price point"
You seem aware of the tradeoffs, so whatever seems best to you. I haven't had any reliability problems with Lionel and don't own enough MTH to comment. Warranty issues depend on whether you want a refund or a repaired item if something goes south. MTH is not offering repairs under warranty. Lionel is, if the item is bought new from one of their approved dealers. If you can find a Lionel item you like with a warranty, that would seem to be the choice if this is a priority.