Mike Wolf to retire and close MTH

I wish @MTH Mike Wolf well in his retirement and thanks for the many, many items that fill my layout and shelves in my basement and provided me and my family many hours of happiness and entertainment in this hobby.  I do especially hope everyone at MTH has a good transition and/or soft landing to continue, if they so desire, to do what makes them happy.

It would be great if MTH continues in some form or another.  However, IMO the continuation of the whole company as it currently stands (design, technology, production, distribution, servicing, parts, support, etc.) will likely be much more difficult to do going forward.  The world we now live, work and play is so much different than it was back in the 1980's and '90's.  The ever increasing off-shore production challenges specifically but not limited to increased subcontracting, minimum production order quantities, production scheduling, pricing  & currency exchange mitigation, quality control supervision and more recently tariffs create great demands upon those taking on this endeavor who then must sell to a shrinking, but always demanding market base.  To further complicate matters for an employees buyout would be if the new ownership is leveraged through a private equity investment group or PIG.  The PIG likely has no personal interest in "the model train hobby" but rather their investment's EBITDA and how those numbers can benefit their OVERALL portfolio of invested companies.  Private Investment Groups demand much higher return on investment or equity percentages in much shorter time-frames that are unlike this hobby traditionally produces.  Thus making the day to day process for those who work in that toy train company even more challenging because of the restrictions placed upon them, but not just limited to decision autonomy and budget ...does this sound familiar to anyone?  Ask yourself what company (ies) do we know who went from having a strong and enthusiastic owner to one that later became part of a multi-company investment group and what benefits and drawbacks did such a change produce?  Making a profit is sometimes is not enough when ownership believes that their investment money can get higher returns elsewhere or when the parts are worth more than the whole.

FWIW and that won't buy you a cup of coffee nor even a penny candy (which is now a nickel at Wegmans) and maybe it's my personal judgement bias coming through, but I don't see the remaining MTH senior management nor even Mike Reagan being interested in the model train design, manufacturing import and selling business where there is less and less control in the process and an aging and shrinking customer base that seems to have something to complain about 50% of the time combined with steady and plentiful supply of new, near new and used product available on the secondary market.  I think Mike Reagan's move to Trainworx was extremely smart and with great foresight.  Providing layout design, construction, in-house built structures and after warranty train repair service and support to those that want and can afford fills a void that is not addressed by any train importing company and the increasing number of hobbyists that don't have the time, desire or skill to do these needed functions in a fast shrinking retail train hobby shop world.

@Arnold D. Cribari posted:

I never met Mike Wolf, but I hope to do so one day.

It just occurred to me that Mike Wolf is the Joshua Lionel Cowen of our time.

From all I know about Joshua Lionel Cowen, he was a great man.

Arnold

Arnold ,the big difference between the two is that Mike is one of us, a train guy. According to most reports Mr Cowen had no interest in model trains other than selling them. Ether way, I am grateful to both of them, for making our hobby their life’s work.

Brad

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

@pdxtrains posted:

I'm 66 now and have downsized from a 4100 sq ft home to a 1700 sq foot home. I've never had a fixed layout, always temporary because I like to change it up and I really just like toy trains. I can imagine though, that as I age the bride and I may downsize again, and if that happens, most o gauge will have to go, although perhaps I'd be able to keep a few starter sets, including the old postwar engine from my childhood. I can see myself transitioning to n gauge, which I've had before, and can easily be set up on top of the kitchen table, or on a folding 6 foot table. 

I have a Subway set on order, but I also have an N gauge starter set on order. My hobby dollars may begin to be funneled into the latter, although, I am ALWAYS tempted by those Lionchief starter sets, which are just too much fun--when they work :-).

If there actually is a generation behind us modeling o gauge, stand by for a waterfall of opportunities to pick up trains at a bargain when the scenario I mentioned above transpires for thousands of us. Lately I've even been of the mind that I should just give them away to anyone younger who is interested.

Down the line, I don't think there will be much choice for us other than to just give them away.

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

 

Here, Hear.  Could not have said it better.  This will be a “remember,when?” Moment 2 years from now.

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

Well, I didn't know that me being an OGR subscriber was a requirement for saving the hobby but if that's all it takes than I'll sign up today!

But to your comments: I do support my local hobby shop(s), most notably Charles Ro as well as other hobby shops in New England, or at least what's left of them since they do seem to be closing up. I am also a very active buyer on ebay, mostly Lionel postwar at this point.  I have also bought trains over the years for my nephews and nieces. So yes, I do my part and so do a lot of other people. Unfortunately, that won't be enough in the long term.  I will also make it clear that I take no joy in my gloomy but realistic assessment of where the market is.  I do not take joy in the end of MTH either. 

I am happy that that OGR is doing well!  However, I noticed that in your reply while making it clear that OGR is doing well subscriber wise you really didn't dispute my points:

- All emotion aside, there is no business case for a group of investors to invest in keeping a company like MTH whole given current market realities.

- The loss of a major player will put pressure on O gauge Hobby Shops to continue to close. If you have the data, I would find it interesting to know how many active hobby shops do we have now versus lets' say five years ago or ten years ago?  What's the trend?

- I do know from looking on Lionel's website for hobby shops in the New England area that Lionel has several "zombie" Hobby Shops listed that have since closed up.  I'm sure others can make the same claim for their geographical areas.

- There is a glut of O gauge product on the secondary market and that is steadily driving prices down for operator quality stuff. Quality Postwar is crashing on ebay, except for the most rare and mint items. Do you dispute that? My evidence is anecdotal but I closely watch ebay daily and I know enough now that I can find just about anything I want for the price I want to pay for it if I just wait and watch.  The same applies to new MTH and Lionel trains too. 

- Menards: I'm glad they are here!  You mention Menards but I am sure you are not suggesting that they can pick up the slack for MTH in the market are you?

- I have a nice collection of O gauge trains, especially postwar.  When I die, no one in my family is going to want my collection intact. I expect that the vast majority of it will be quickly sold off for prices at a fraction of what I paid for it.  No one has room for it.  I am willing to bet many others have the same fear. 

Madockawando-

While I suspect most of us share a concern w the future if the hobby I would be careful about putting too much into any one thing w the hobby.Retail stores in general are in trouble and Covid 19 could push many of them over the edge, if people feel the threat of possibly getting sick and realizing they can do most of it online. Hobby shops are dying partially w a decline in hobbies,but most bc of online sales. You know how many of those who moan about the death of hobby shops never shopped at the LHS but bought online to get it as cheap as possible w no sales tax?

Is it troubling no one bought MTH? If Mike had been trying to sell it and no one wanted it,for several years, then yeah it raises questions, but we don't know if he even tried,only he knows that.

Hopefully like Weaver the MTH stuff gets picked up by someone else, rather than one firm doing it.

I also have been around long enough to make me think trains go through ebb and flow. You mentioned the 1970s,that is my era as well and by then it was long since Lionel was the toy of choice,that died by the early 60s or so. If kids were into trains it was HO or N, the baby boomers were busy with families or cars or dating, and it was a lean time, you basically had Lionel MPC and it was a pretty small market and hobby. Kids were off w slot cars, a little later first video games, all kind of things.

It really wasn't until the late 80s that it came back,bc the boomers rediscovered them, both for nostalgia and collecting (and sadly those who thought they would make a fortune),and then Kughn bought lionel, mth came in,etc.

I don't know if the hobby will reach the size it did over the last several decades,but when I go to train shows I see enough non boomers to make me think it will survive, if smaller. Demographically there is a generation larger than the boomers,who could come into play.I have concerns there,generally trains goes along with home ownership and that may be problematic , but numbers suggest even if less percent of the next generation gets into 3 rail there will be a number who do.

I have learned that trying to tie disparate parts into a cohesive story can be difficult,whether it is history or with trains, the death of hobby shops, the end of mth, could be related to the health of the industry,but also could be unrelated to it, or partially,we don't know.

The hobby will suffer a substantial loss if MTH or its successor does not continue to make their beautiful, durable and reasonably-priced O gauge trains. Nonetheless, even if all O gauge production were to cease today, there will remain a vast supply of modern and classic O gauge trains that will come to be appreciated by discerning people in future generations who will recognize their value as collectibles or for their personal model railroad. There will be people (or their children) fascinated by trains or working for railroads who will become interested in model railroading. And the same reasons that led most of the people on this Forum to prefer O gauge/scale trains will still be there to attract a following.

I'm surprised by some people's certainty in predicting exactly what the situation will be years from now, and I strongly agree with Alan Arnold that this Forum and OGR magazine deserve to be supported by every one of us who enjoys and benefits from them.

MELGAR

MELGAR

Amen!

Ed Boyle

OGR could very well require membership for forum access. However your forum activity would drop significantly. End result it becomes less lucrative for sponsors and sponsorship drops. 

I don't subscribe to any train magazines except running extra from MRH. O isn't my only scale and MRH is the most useful to me from that standpoint.  I do however use the forum sponsors here at OGR.

Another option is to have a premium membership for the forum between subscription price and nothing.  Not my company and certainly won't tell you how to run it.

https://ogrforum.com/...3#146142158578315543

Thanks, Alan, for chiming in.  Cool heads are needed now especially from those in the know like you.  Love the magazine, the hobby, and we need need to keep supporting companies that make this hobby great. 

I spent several hours today cutting wood and painting as a base for my hinged lift bridges that are made out of MTH bridges (the Backshop has given great tips over the years).  My world hasn't changed because Mike Wolf is retiring.  In the end, MTH could go away, but I have a lot of their products in my basement and they are alive and well.  O Gauge will live on!

Here here as well. Mike really did something special to the hobby as I sort of stated before. Having read some other things that have come out that there will be something evolving from MTH into whatever it becomes is great to hear. I haven't really bought a lot of MTH as I have said before, but even though I can appreciate what they have produced. Heck, the Madison Passenger cars I bought at last October's York are great and I love them.

People have been predicting the end of model trains for a long time it would seem if you ask some members here on the forum. What do they know? As someone has stated a few times, and maybe a few years ago, Mike was going to retire, just a question of when. Many were hoping that MTH would still exist as such, but that is Mike's, so it has to evolve into something else. I think a few people jokingly said ATH, but said Andy is up in age as well.

While you can say that the world is falling apart, I say to you that this forum, those that support it, those that love the hobby have really shown through this wacky time that it is really not. We missed April York, we missed this train show, we missed that train show, etc., etc. We are still here, we still love this hobby, and by God(hope that doesn't get edited out) we still love our trains.

I myself would love to think that at some point in my life when things are not so stuffy here, that whatever the future holds I will finally get enough space to have a great layout(still working on mom's estate), and be able to have trains running that should be having their glory pulling whatever freight or passenger cars they want. Hopefully this will be in the cards and not take too much more time to get things done. It would be nice, thankfully I am patient.

We shall see what comes, keep your pants on, and hope for the best possible outcome. Mike will have more surprises I am sure, or whomever the successor to what comes after is.

I haven't followed this thread from reply to reply, after it became one theory & conjecture after another. To many pessimistic predictions with a few optimistic rays of hope thrown in here and there. Since I haven't read every reply, word for word, I'm don't qualify to say whether most members thoughts are not based on facts but mostly opinion. Whatever the case, I do have a few questions regarding the fate of our MTH investments, if all of the electronic portion of MTH disappears. If the answer is buried somewhere within the 646 replies please let me know.

Question 1: Hypothetically assuming, if my TIU and or remote died and no replacements were available what options are left for my MTH engines besides conventional operation? I like to run multiple engines on the same track & also double head.  WiFi (I do not own one)? RailKing IR remote control, which I own 2, (lets assume these don't fall into the no longer category)?  

Question 2: Also hypothetically assuming, since I run DCS & Legacy & both systems still work, if any of my MTH engines should fry it's electronics and no replacement parts were available, what options are left for that engine?

I do own approximately 40 MTH engines, and a dozen Legacy engines.

Thanks,

Joe

DCS is spinning off into a new company which will handle all of the hardware and software.  You can see this in the stickied thread specifically about it and on MTH announcement.

@ironman1 posted:

Question 2: Also hypothetically assuming, since I run DCS & Legacy & both systems still work, if any of my MTH engines should fry it's electronics and no replacement parts were available, what options are left for that engine?

I do own approximately 40 MTH engines, and a dozen Legacy engines.

Thanks,

Joe

 

Not to worry, I would refer you to this other thread addressing that issue as well;

https://ogrforum.com/...proto-sound-lives-on

I say that as long as there are real railroads, there will be model railroads, and some of them will be running MTH O gauge trains. There is a significant group of people who are interested in the O gauge trains of 50, 60, 70, and more, years ago. Why won't that be true of people and model trains that have been produced in the past 20 or 30 years? Eventually, people will tire of doing everything "virtually" on their computer and they will decide to do something that is "hands-on."

MELGAR

Thanks for the replies!

@bigkid posted:

Madockawando-

While I suspect most of us share a concern w the future if the hobby I would be careful about putting too much into any one thing w the hobby.Retail stores in general are in trouble and Covid 19 could push many of them over the edge, if people feel the threat of possibly getting sick and realizing they can do most of it online. Hobby shops are dying partially w a decline in hobbies,but most bc of online sales. You know how many of those who moan about the death of hobby shops never shopped at the LHS but bought online to get it as cheap as possible w no sales tax?

Is it troubling no one bought MTH? If Mike had been trying to sell it and no one wanted it,for several years, then yeah it raises questions, but we don't know if he even tried,only he knows that.

Hopefully like Weaver the MTH stuff gets picked up by someone else, rather than one firm doing it.

I also have been around long enough to make me think trains go through ebb and flow. You mentioned the 1970s,that is my era as well and by then it was long since Lionel was the toy of choice,that died by the early 60s or so. If kids were into trains it was HO or N, the baby boomers were busy with families or cars or dating, and it was a lean time, you basically had Lionel MPC and it was a pretty small market and hobby. Kids were off w slot cars, a little later first video games, all kind of things.

It really wasn't until the late 80s that it came back,bc the boomers rediscovered them, both for nostalgia and collecting (and sadly those who thought they would make a fortune),and then Kughn bought lionel, mth came in,etc.

I don't know if the hobby will reach the size it did over the last several decades,but when I go to train shows I see enough non boomers to make me think it will survive, if smaller. Demographically there is a generation larger than the boomers,who could come into play.I have concerns there,generally trains goes along with home ownership and that may be problematic , but numbers suggest even if less percent of the next generation gets into 3 rail there will be a number who do.

I have learned that trying to tie disparate parts into a cohesive story can be difficult,whether it is history or with trains, the death of hobby shops, the end of mth, could be related to the health of the industry,but also could be unrelated to it, or partially,we don't know.

 

 

 

 

Perfect response! 

I wasn't loosing any sleep over this, but I may sleep better tonight. 

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

...With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

...This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

Alan,

Like you, I'm a glass is half full kind of guy, too. But unlike you, I'm from a different generation (Gen X/Y) who is watching O Scale slowly die as a hobby. Just look at how the train shows have evolved in the past 10 years. The demographic has skewed older, TCA and similar organizations struggle to attract new membership, and the attendance continues to wane. Online, we have a burgeoning YouTube community, but it's still infinitesimally small compared to competing hobbies' YouTube communities. 

At a time when someone my age wants to look toward retirement in 25 years with hopes and dreams, I have to swallow a bitter pill knowing that it will not likely involve O Scale railroading as we've known it for the past 30 years. Indeed, the hobby must evolve to stay relevant, and it will. O will survive, but we are at a crossroads for HOW it will evolve. 

If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.

Now, ask the same question of a 20 year old. Most would say they don't know anyone. They don't really know the Lionel name, at least not in the household word sense. The future is not looking good.

Someone my age can't ignore this. We ARE this generation. We have "normal" friends who we try to get into the hobby. The struggle for us to preserve this hobby is real and it's scary. To say that O will survive is whistling in the dark, and I don't have the luxury of looking back on 50 years in the hobby to say, "it's been a good run--I've seen ups and downs, and it'll come back up." Instead, I have to look at where we are, and where we're headed, and it's very sobering.

But here's where my half-full glass personality takes over.

OGR and its reader demographics may present a prescient and important case study for the hobby and the direction in which it needs to evolve to stay relevant in a best-case scenario. I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers prefer print over digital. How does that compare with other magazines like Car & Driver, or ComputerWorld, or even Model Railroader? I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers are over age 50. What do projections look like 5 years from now?

If you were to conduct a survey, I'm willing to bet that this topic--the feared death of O scale as a hobby and its state in 20 years--is top of mind for your subscribers under the age of 40 or 45. I'm also willing to bet that as the subscriber gets older, the less concerned they are about that question. This could prove to be a really interesting story in a future issue, frankly--not just an editorial, but a multi-page feature. It would be informative to the hobbyist as to where we are right now, and where we seem to be headed, and it would (just as, if not more importantly) be informative to the manufacturers and TCA as they build their long-range business plans in the wake of MTH's departure. 

The hobby won't die because of MTH's departure, but its future will suffer if we don't take action. There are certain things that will go away no matter what, and we have to account for those: brick and mortar will become a very small niche of sales. TCA as we know it won't exist. Meets and shows will be a thing of the past. And none of this is thanks to COVID, to be clear.

But, if the hobby pivots, beautiful enhancements can take their place. Online marketplace can spread the hobby to segments and geographies even more than it does today. Fellowship through virtual hobbyist sessions with VR and AR integration will take over where TCA and shows left off.

And new facets of the hobby can emerge. Virtual layout modules can be nested into a physical layout with Augmented Reality. Trains can engage in LAN-party operating sessions where train orders can be used to deliver cargo between two different railroads on two different layouts in two different physical cities. HomeKit, Alexa, and Google Home integration can bring an entirely new voice-control and motion-detected aspect to an operation without the need of a remote, smartphone, or on-track operating sensors. Live runs can be interactive allowing viewers to team up to take control (to the limit that the owner is comfortable) of layout components and rolling stock.

This is exciting stuff to the younger generation, and I dare say to the boomers as well. But what track are we on right now? I don't think it's that one, at least in the next 2 years (which is when it needs to happen, and as an engineer for a certain fruit company, I can assure you it's quite do-able today).

If the hobby does nothing and we continue on the same trajectory in the near term, it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the likely future. I talked about that in a recent post. In a nutshell, in 20 years I think it's safe to say that today's 40 year olds aren't going to see the benefit of spending $1000+ on just an engine. That market will be gone except for a few offerings here and there. The bread and butter of O will be in O Gauge. Menards. LionChief. Licensed brands. Christmas and birthday sales. Seasonal circle layouts with snap-track. That's going to be the hobby.

Compare that with some of what I detailed above, and you can see why guys from my generation and younger are worried. We see what the future CAN be, but it's looking less and less likely, possibly hastened by the MTH departure, and it's painful for us to watch. 

Again, I think it would make a great article.

Just my 2 cents.

Rafi

@TexasSP posted:

OGR could very well require membership for forum access. However your forum activity would drop significantly. End result it becomes less lucrative for sponsors and sponsorship drops. 

I don't subscribe to any train magazines except running extra from MRH. O isn't my only scale and MRH is the most useful to me from that standpoint.  I do however use the forum sponsors here at OGR.

Another option is to have a premium membership for the forum between subscription price and nothing.  Not my company and certainly won't tell you how to run it.

We in fact had a premium membership at one time but it did not have a large enough following so it was phased out.  We have done some calculations about some sort of special membership which would include extras above and beyond the free forum....and according to the calculation/marketing specialists/consultants, even if we lost 60% of our current forum members, OGR would make a larger profit....based on a buck a month type of "club"/"membership".  The current group of sponsors would likely continue to participate on the forum since it would still be comprised of active hobbyists keeping in mind that most of the page views we get per month are coming from folks that are not members of the forum so would not be paying a "membership" fee but could still read and participate with the banner ads.  This has been discussed before and even a couple of poles were taken with the results that folks want us to continue to provide the forum for free and so we have honored their thoughts on doing this.  BUT....everyone in this hobby from the consumer side needs to realize that things which are free now, won't be without financial support.  The big social media companies that provide platforms so that you can discuss trains can afford to provide those platforms BECAUSE they charge for advertising and they also gain from sharing your web search history to target and make money off of you.  

@Rafi posted:

Alan,

Like you, I'm a glass is half full kind of guy, too. But unlike you, I'm from a different generation (Gen X/Y) who is watching O Scale slowly die as a hobby. Just look at how the train shows have evolved in the past 10 years. The demographic has skewed older, TCA and similar organizations struggle to attract new membership, and the attendance continues to wane. Online, we have a burgeoning YouTube community, but it's still infinitesimally small compared to competing hobbies' YouTube communities. 

At a time when someone my age wants to look toward retirement in 25 years with hopes and dreams, I have to swallow a bitter pill knowing that it will not likely involve O Scale railroading as we've known it for the past 30 years. Indeed, the hobby must evolve to stay relevant, and it will. O will survive, but we are at a crossroads for HOW it will evolve. 

If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.

Now, as the same question of a 20 year old. Most would say they don't know anyone. They don't really know the Lionel name, at least not in the household word sense. The future is not looking good.

Someone my age can't ignore this. We ARE this generation. We have "normal" friends who we try to get into the hobby. The struggle for us to preserve this hobby is real and it's scary. To say that O will survive is whistling in the dark, and I don't have the luxury of looking back on 50 years in the hobby to say, "it's been a good run--I've seen ups and downs, and it'll come back up." Instead, I have to look at where we are, and where we're headed, and it's very sobering.

But here's where my half-full glass personality takes over.

OGR and its reader demographics may present a prescient and important case study for the hobby and the direction in which it needs to evolve to stay relevant in a best-case scenario. I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers prefer print over digital. How does that compare with other magazines like Car & Driver, or ComputerWorld, or even Model Railroader? I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers are over age 50. What do projections look like 5 years from now?

If you were to conduct a survey, I'm willing to bet that this topic--the feared death of O scale as a hobby and its state in 20 years--is top of mind for your subscribers under the age of 40 or 45. I'm also willing to bet that as the subscriber gets older, the less concerned they are about that question. This could prove to be a really interesting story in a future issue, frankly--not just an editorial, but a multi-page feature. It would be informative to the hobbyist as to where we are right now, and where we seem to be headed, and it would (just as, if not more importantly) be informative to the manufacturers and TCA as they build their long-range business plans in the wake of MTH's departure. 

The hobby won't die because of MTH's departure, but its future will suffer if we don't take action. There are certain things that will go away no matter what, and we have to account for those: brick and mortar will become a very small niche of sales. TCA as we know it won't exist. Meets and shows will be a thing of the past. And none of this is thanks to COVID, to be clear.

But, if the hobby pivots, beautiful enhancements can take their place. Online marketplace can spread the hobby to segments and geographies even more than it does today. Fellowship through virtual hobbyist sessions with VR and AR integration will take over where TCA and shows left off.

And new facets of the hobby can emerge. Virtual layout modules can be nested into a physical layout with Augmented Reality. Trains can engage in LAN-party operating sessions where train orders can be used to deliver cargo between two different railroads on two different layouts in two different physical cities. HomeKit, Alexa, and Google Home integration can bring an entirely new voice-control and motion-detected aspect to an operation without the need of a remote, smartphone, or on-track operating sensors. Live runs can be interactive allowing viewers to team up to take control (to the limit that the owner is comfortable) of layout components and rolling stock.

This is exciting stuff to the younger generation, and I dare say to the boomers as well. But what track are we on right now? I don't think it's that one, at least in the next 2 years (which is when it needs to happen, and as an engineer for a certain fruit company, I can assure you it's quite do-able today).

If the hobby does nothing and we continue on the same trajectory in the near term, it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the likely future. I talked about that in a recent post. In a nutshell, in 20 years I think it's safe to say that today's 40 year olds aren't going to see the benefit of spending $1000+ on just an engine. That market will be gone except for a few offerings here and there. The bread and butter of O will be in O Gauge. Menards. LionChief. Licensed brands. Christmas and birthday sales. Seasonal circle layouts with snap-track. That's going to be the hobby.

Compare that with some of what I detailed above, and you can see why guys from my generation and younger are worried. We see what the future CAN be, but it's looking less and less likely, possibly hastened by the MTH departure, and it's painful for us to watch. 

Again, I think it would make a great article.

Just my 2 cents.

Rafi

Rafi....contact Allan Miller about your post above....I think if you are willing to do the research and write the article, we are willing to publish it...and we pay upon publication!

Thanks...

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

Rafi....contact Allan Miller about your post above....I think if you are willing to do the research and write the article, we are willing to publish it...and we pay upon publication!

Thanks...

Me and my big mouth! ;-)

In all seriousness, though, thanks for the nod. I'll contact Allan at the start of the week.

Thanks again,

Rafi

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

We in fact had a premium membership at one time but it did not have a large enough following so it was phased out.  We have done some calculations about some sort of special membership which would include extras above and beyond the free forum....and according to the calculation/marketing specialists/consultants, even if we lost 60% of our current forum members, OGR would make a larger profit....based on a buck a month type of "club"/"membership".  The current group of sponsors would likely continue to participate on the forum since it would still be comprised of active hobbyists keeping in mind that most of the page views we get per month are coming from folks that are not members of the forum so would not be paying a "membership" fee but could still read and participate with the banner ads.  This has been discussed before and even a couple of poles were taken with the results that folks want us to continue to provide the forum for free and so we have honored their thoughts on doing this.  BUT....everyone in this hobby from the consumer side needs to realize that things which are free now, won't be without financial support.  The big social media companies that provide platforms so that you can discuss trains can afford to provide those platforms BECAUSE they charge for advertising and they also gain from sharing your web search history to target and make money off of you.  

Alan I'm sure that would ruffle feathers. However I'm the end you guys have a business to run. I don't begrudge anyone doing what's right for them in those terms.  Life's a series of compromises in the end. I count myself blessed regardless. 

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

Excellent commentary. When I first started out subscribing to OGR many moons ago now, it was actually out of a sense of gratitude for their sponsoring this forum which I had come to enjoy. I really wasn’t familiar with the magazine then but took a chance on it. 

I’m glad I did. I thoroughly enjoy every issue and continue to be active on the forum. I recommend that those of you who enjoy this forum but don’t subscribe to OGR consider doing so. The digital subscription is actually quite cheap for what you receive,  although I do prefer the print version in my hand. 

Keep up the good work, Alan.

“If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.”

I am 54. I was young in the 70’s. I grew up with Lionel trains. Rafi, I agree with what you are saying here but will it still be true in 5 or 10 years when all the kids who grew up with Thomas the Tank engine either in HO or O reach an age where they might have a little extra spending money to buy some trains? Hopefully, some of them will pick up the hobby. 

https://ogrforum.com/...1#146142158582490181

Interesting perspective, Rafi.  Good post.  We have Train Fest every year here in Wisconsin (except 2020 of course!)  and I'm always amazed by all the young people getting in my way as a crusty old dude when I want to talk trains with the vendors.  It's a huge turnout with a ton of young people and, as I've observed and mentioned, I also can't help but to marvel at the square footage Menards uses at their stores to promote both Lemax and O Gauge trains for the last quarter of every year.  John Menard is a business guy.  He's showing trains because he sells trains and sees it as a viable market.

What we need to remember about O gauge trains is the simple fact that an AC transformer powers these little toys to go around in a circle.  And when you insulate the outer rail, magical things happen like accessories and RR crossing signals.  It's like a bicycle:  a sprocket and chain propels it with simple human pedaling.  We will be riding bikes forever.   People have been trying to enhance the pencil and pen for centuries.  In the end, what pens/pencils can do in their most basic form for creativity is what endures and ensures their life forever.

To speculate that this simple toy, based on science 101, will disappear, seems absurd to me.  Yes, the $1,000 engine is speculative -- and the future can seem cloudy, err, smoky? (pun intended) -- and that $1,000 engine might die along with the overly ambitious aging train guys like me on this forum.   But all it takes to turn a young person on to trains is to introduce them to the simple mechanical toy train and the the artistry of the scenic O Gauge world comes calling to so many young, creative minds.  Throw in the magic of commercial influences like Thomas the Train or Polar Express and the creative calling is enhanced.

Looking at a box car with die cast sprung trucks and a high quality paint job mattered when I was growing up and still matters today.  The aesthetic is there versus a 100,000 pixel digital image of anything.  Young folks just need to turn off their devices and take a moment to experience it.    Maybe they should start by going to places like the Art Institute of Chicago and see real live paintings or drawings by real historic artists in person.  It can move you unlike anything you can create online. 

What I am about to say is mainly intended to interject some humor into the discussion, but there is also truth in it: "If you build it, they will come." Arnold

@Rafi posted:

Alan,

Like you, I'm a glass is half full kind of guy, too. But unlike you, I'm from a different generation (Gen X/Y) who is watching O Scale slowly die as a hobby. Just look at how the train shows have evolved in the past 10 years. The demographic has skewed older, TCA and similar organizations struggle to attract new membership, and the attendance continues to wane. Online, we have a burgeoning YouTube community, but it's still infinitesimally small compared to competing hobbies' YouTube communities. 

At a time when someone my age wants to look toward retirement in 25 years with hopes and dreams, I have to swallow a bitter pill knowing that it will not likely involve O Scale railroading as we've known it for the past 30 years. Indeed, the hobby must evolve to stay relevant, and it will. O will survive, but we are at a crossroads for HOW it will evolve. 

If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.

Now, ask the same question of a 20 year old. Most would say they don't know anyone. They don't really know the Lionel name, at least not in the household word sense. The future is not looking good.

Someone my age can't ignore this. We ARE this generation. We have "normal" friends who we try to get into the hobby. The struggle for us to preserve this hobby is real and it's scary. To say that O will survive is whistling in the dark, and I don't have the luxury of looking back on 50 years in the hobby to say, "it's been a good run--I've seen ups and downs, and it'll come back up." Instead, I have to look at where we are, and where we're headed, and it's very sobering.

But here's where my half-full glass personality takes over.

OGR and its reader demographics may present a prescient and important case study for the hobby and the direction in which it needs to evolve to stay relevant in a best-case scenario. I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers prefer print over digital. How does that compare with other magazines like Car & Driver, or ComputerWorld, or even Model Railroader? I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers are over age 50. What do projections look like 5 years from now?

If you were to conduct a survey, I'm willing to bet that this topic--the feared death of O scale as a hobby and its state in 20 years--is top of mind for your subscribers under the age of 40 or 45. I'm also willing to bet that as the subscriber gets older, the less concerned they are about that question. This could prove to be a really interesting story in a future issue, frankly--not just an editorial, but a multi-page feature. It would be informative to the hobbyist as to where we are right now, and where we seem to be headed, and it would (just as, if not more importantly) be informative to the manufacturers and TCA as they build their long-range business plans in the wake of MTH's departure. 

The hobby won't die because of MTH's departure, but its future will suffer if we don't take action. There are certain things that will go away no matter what, and we have to account for those: brick and mortar will become a very small niche of sales. TCA as we know it won't exist. Meets and shows will be a thing of the past. And none of this is thanks to COVID, to be clear.

But, if the hobby pivots, beautiful enhancements can take their place. Online marketplace can spread the hobby to segments and geographies even more than it does today. Fellowship through virtual hobbyist sessions with VR and AR integration will take over where TCA and shows left off.

And new facets of the hobby can emerge. Virtual layout modules can be nested into a physical layout with Augmented Reality. Trains can engage in LAN-party operating sessions where train orders can be used to deliver cargo between two different railroads on two different layouts in two different physical cities. HomeKit, Alexa, and Google Home integration can bring an entirely new voice-control and motion-detected aspect to an operation without the need of a remote, smartphone, or on-track operating sensors. Live runs can be interactive allowing viewers to team up to take control (to the limit that the owner is comfortable) of layout components and rolling stock.

This is exciting stuff to the younger generation, and I dare say to the boomers as well. But what track are we on right now? I don't think it's that one, at least in the next 2 years (which is when it needs to happen, and as an engineer for a certain fruit company, I can assure you it's quite do-able today).

If the hobby does nothing and we continue on the same trajectory in the near term, it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the likely future. I talked about that in a recent post. In a nutshell, in 20 years I think it's safe to say that today's 40 year olds aren't going to see the benefit of spending $1000+ on just an engine. That market will be gone except for a few offerings here and there. The bread and butter of O will be in O Gauge. Menards. LionChief. Licensed brands. Christmas and birthday sales. Seasonal circle layouts with snap-track. That's going to be the hobby.

Compare that with some of what I detailed above, and you can see why guys from my generation and younger are worried. We see what the future CAN be, but it's looking less and less likely, possibly hastened by the MTH departure, and it's painful for us to watch. 

Again, I think it would make a great article.

Just my 2 cents.

Rafi

Rafi, I did not understand all of what you said about "virtual layout modules can be nested in a physical layout with Augmented  Reality," VR and AR integration, and LAN-party operating sessions, but I think you are on to something, you are clearly tech savvy (I'm not), and like Mr. Spock would say in Star Trek: "Fascinating." Arnold

Hey Arnold,

My apologies--in the interest of brevity I didn't go into too much detail on those ideas. In a nutshell:

Virtual Modules in a Physical Layout:
Imagine a 4x8 mid-way through scenery construction. Track is laid, perhaps ballasted, and maybe a few buildings and landscaping. Now, imagine holding up your phone or tablet as if you were going to take a picture, but instead of seeing just the layout on your device screen, you see photorealistic buildings nested into your physical scenery, completing your cityscape or Main Street diorama, and you can move and swap different buildings out, changing features, walking around your layout in the real world out to see what works best before you make your purchase. Or, you can test drive the latest Vision Line steamer on your actual track, complete with on-screen Legacy Controls on your layout, completely virtually, standing in front of your 4x8. Or, you're setting up a special occasion temporary layout for the kids or grandkids and you want to take them out of this world. Set up a circle of track and use your phone to transport the train and the track onto an alien planet. You're running the train in the real world, but if you look on the device, the train appears to be running on Mars, or in a jungle, you name it. Imagine kids competing to design the craziest, awesomest landscapes for their train to run through virtually, and then when they're older, they can try making them for real as they get into the hobby.

In short, AR gives someone the opportunity to take objects from the real world and place them in a virtual world. Or, vice versa: take the real world and insert virtual objects into it. If you'd like to see what I'm talking about in action, click here. AR is going to become more and more part of everyday life over the next decade, and it's in our hobby's best interest to get on the bandwagon early and to capitalize.

WAN party operating sessions:
After posting, I realized I made a typo--I should have said WAN party. LAN stands for Local Area Network (ie the Wi-Fi in your home). WAN stands for Wide Area Network (ie connectivity to other devices on the internet).

There are a ton of ways to spin this for model railroads. Here are three off the top of my head.

1). The idea here is pretty simple; it's like a game of Correspondence Chess, except it's not turn-based, and it all happens real-time. Imagine that you're interested in having an operating session, but rather than have your friend over to share your layout, you want to mix it up and combine your layout and his layout. Now, in a utopia, you'd pack up one of the layouts, bring it over to the other house, and bolt it onto the other layout. Short of a modular club, that's not realistic for semi-permanent in-home layouts, obviously. That's where a WAN party comes in. WAN parties and LAN parties are a popular way for video and computer gamers to compete against each other, or to work cooperatively against a common enemy. Imagine you and a friend both fire up your favorite game at each of your homes, connect to each other over the internet, and begin playing as if you were both sitting in front of the TV or computer in the same room. You can talk, you can interact through the game, and you can team up completely virtually. This is the same idea, but for train layouts.

Imagine if your TIU or Legacy system was able to talk to other systems over the internet. And imagine if you could designate parts of your layout to act as "portals" to the other layout. Now, imagine you wanted to have a train order operating session where goods and passengers have to be delivered across railroads. And imagine that all of this could be controlled through your tablet or smartphone.

Let's say you need to get a unit train of grain from your layout's farm over to the flour mill on your friend's layout. You put your consist together on your layout. Both you and your friend's phones and tablets are aware of the consist. You begin moving the train. Your friend can see it virtually on his device. The train gets to the portal track on your layout and ideally heads into a tunnel where, in the real world, it stops. But on your friend's layout it emerges from the tunnel virtually, completely life-like and realistic. and using Augmented Reality, you and he can control it as the virtual train moves through the real layout, until gets to the flour mill to deliver the load. The virtual train is controlled using the same Legacy/DCS/whatever the future brings system controls as a real train. 

2). Virtual control. I'm sure a lot of us have watched live broadcasts of model railroads. Eric Siegel's running one today on YouTube, in fact. Now, if the layout owner so desires, imagine being able to act as a remote dispatcher using your own Legacy remote or TIU Remote, or just by using your phone or tablet. Imagine being able to be one of 5 engineers operating one of 5 trains on that remote layout. Imagine participating in an operating session virtually alongside guys who are there physically. And imagine being able to do it using the same controls you use to operate your own layout. 

3). Fantasy Trains. Let's say Lionel's never going to put out that fallen flag in the unit that you want. Or, you never got that MTH model pre-ordered and so sad, so sorry. What if you could download, or better yet, build your own virtual engine, entire train? I'm sure a lot of us have seen the popular ultra-realistic and detailed train simulators on the market . What if Lionel (or anyone, really) licensed that modeling technology and released a version of Legacy or DCS that could run those trains virtually, using AR, on your layout? You could build your trains from the ground up using the same tools as in the simulator software, and then virtually run them on your actual track using AR.

The concern here is that with MTH gone, one may very reasonably argue that ideas like what I've outlined above are less likely to happen because the element of competition has significantly diminished. At the same time, one would hope that a company like Lionel sees this as a time to double down for a long term future.

All of this is do-able using technology from 2017 (much earlier if you forego AR technology and just use on-screen visuals), and here we are in 2020. These are the sorts of things that would attract the younger crowd, and I suspect seasoned hobbyists would go nuts for it, too. If designed well, it would be turnkey to get going on a home layout. You are spot on when you say, If You Build it, They Will Come. Someone just needs to build it and take the financial risk. The payoff is a whole new generation or two of hobbyists that would otherwise go to another hobby.

Rafi

I have heard concerns about the toy train hobby, particularly O gauge, dying for many years, and the fact is, it has not happened. Whether it does or does not in the future is pure speculation. With the recent decision by MTH, it was predictable that there would be a number of gloom and doom posts, so no surprise there.

I have two points to make this morning. First, our hobby is an expensive one and the reality is that those who have the interest are typically not in a position to make significant investments in it until they reach their 40s or 50s. Many younger adults also do not have the time or the dollars to attend train shows. Their priorities are different. They are getting married, buying a home, raising a family, working long hours in their jobs, making mortgage payments, making tuition payments, etc. For most, it is only when the kids get older, finish their education and move out that they have the time, space and discretionary funds available to build a layout and/or buy trains. That was exactly my case and that of virtually every one of my good friends in the hobby. So the fact that we do not see younger adults prominently supporting the hobby is hardly surprising. It has always been that way.

My second point is that we all have a role in shaping the future of our hobby. We need to do our part to build the base so that new members will continue the hobby when they are in a position financially to do so. It's a kind of succession planning. The more family members and friends we can interest in our hobby, the better the chances are for its survival. Here is my story. I have been interested in trains my entire life and became hooked on O gauge trains when I received my first Lionel train set when I was a small child. That never changed. My wife and I purchased Lionel trains for our three girls and ran them under the Christmas tree each year, and they all loved their trains. Now, our girls are adults who continue to very interested in trains. They are fascinated by my layout, which was built after they were grown up. One of our daughters is married, and has two boys, one of whom is 3 and the other is an infant. We have already purchased a Thomas the Tank train set for the older boy and you can bet his brother will get his own train set in the next year or two. The older boy loves his train set and is completely blown away with my layout. In fact, it is almost impossible to pull him away from it. When they are a little older, they will be able to run my layout and commence to attend train shows. Hopefully, both will be hooked for life. Our plan is similar for our other two daughters, both of whom are engaged, when they are married and have their own children.

Pat

Re Rafi's post above (for sake of space, won't paste it)...

Really appreciate the amount of thought that was put into it.  An article should be written - lots of folks prefer print and it's a way to move the discussion forward.  IMO, too many people and organizations are trying to milk the existing market rather than being open to outside-the-box thinking - NMRA is a prime example - they settled on a strategy of trying to attract newly-retired folks to the train hobby rather than appealing to younger people.  Big mistake, IMO.

Was not very familiar with AR beyond what I've seen on some TV shows, so I clicked on the link (thanks for providing it).  Here are my thoughts as someone who is close to retirement age (which means I'm relatively young in the train world).

While I find AR interesting, and can see a lot of uses for it, it's not how I want to engage in this hobby.  In fact, I can't think of any hobby in which I would want to engage in that manner.  Two critical things are missing in my viewpoint:  1) a physical manifestation of the hobby - I want to pick something up, work on it with my hands, and smell it while it's running, and 2) no in-person interaction - while I like being able to communicate with people all over the planet and see what they're doing, I take a great of pleasure in meeting others and being with them. 

I understand that I may be a dinosaur with some of these viewpoints, but I think that we lose a lot as human beings when everything  becomes virtual. 

Truthfully, much of my pleasure from the model train hobby is the people I meet that are involved in it.  If it were all virtual, it would lose a lot of allure, at least for me.  I love doing the modular shows and seeing the kids, young and old, enjoying the trains, it's a major reason why I will go to all the work of doing modular shows.

@irish rifle posted:

...our hobby is an expensive one and the reality is that those who have the interest are typically not in a position to make significant investments in it until they reach their 40s or 50s. Many younger adults also do not have the time or the dollars to attend train shows. Their priorities are different. They are getting married, buying a home, raising a family, working long hours in their jobs, making mortgage payments, making tuition payments, etc. For most, it is only when the kids get older, finish their education and move out that they have the time, space and discretionary funds available to build a layout and/or buy trains. That was exactly my case and that of virtually every one of my good friends in the hobby. So the fact that we do not see younger adults prominently supporting the hobby is hardly surprising. It has always been that way... 

 

While I agree with much of what is in that post, I think it's important to remember that model trains have not always been a hobby only for wealthier and older folks.  If one goes back to look at train magazines from the 1970s and earlier, the hobby was dominated by (mostly) men in their 20s to 40s - they adopted new technologies and applied them to creating model railroads.  Although one could spend a lot of money, the magazines are full of articles about scratchbuilding and making use of inexpensive and/or scrounged materials - many people of modest means had model railroads.  This seemed to flip sometime in the mid to late 1980s as boomers got wealthier and were able to buy their dreams.  At the same time, younger people weren't exposed to trains on a daily basis, so there were few younger folks to backfill as the core of the hobby aged.  My point is that we shouldn't just accept the idea that the hobby will only appeal to older folks - we need to find ways to engage younger people.

Hey guys, I should have clarified that features like augmented reality (which combines the physical and virtual) are just one of many things that would need to happen in order to attract a younger demographic in the coming years. They are not mutually exclusive to the hobby as we now know it – to the contrary, our hobby is one of the rare hobbies where you can combine facets from modern technology and old-school technology as much or as little as a hobbyist would want.

So while folks from previous generations probably would not care too much about the features that the younger generations would, that’s one of the great things about the flexibility that our hobby offers.

The key here is to figure out a good path forward and our hobby simply has to evolve with new technology to surface as relevant and present decades from now. 

Rafi, I really appreciate forward looking tech savvy individuals such as yourself in the hobby.  I believe people like you will help draw new people into the hobby using tech some of us only dream of.  I for one am looking forward to the day I can buy a program from a company who will sell digital designs of some of the more obscure railroad engines/cars and print them out on a 3d printer at home in any scale and place on a purchased complete or kit chassis or even homebuilt.  I know Shapeways does this, but supplies the printed parts.  I do not know of a central source for designs for a large variety of trains.  Could be a whole new business, download the design, print at home, cleanup, decorate, buy or build chassis and run.

Chris S. 

@Mallard4468 posted:

Re Rafi's post above (for sake of space, won't paste it)...

Really appreciate the amount of thought that was put into it.  An article should be written - lots of folks prefer print and it's a way to move the discussion forward.  IMO, too many people and organizations are trying to milk the existing market rather than being open to outside-the-box thinking - NMRA is a prime example - they settled on a strategy of trying to attract newly-retired folks to the train hobby rather than appealing to younger people.  Big mistake, IMO.

Was not very familiar with AR beyond what I've seen on some TV shows, so I clicked on the link (thanks for providing it).  Here are my thoughts as someone who is close to retirement age (which means I'm relatively young in the train world).

While I find AR interesting, and can see a lot of uses for it, it's not how I want to engage in this hobby.  In fact, I can't think of any hobby in which I would want to engage in that manner.  Two critical things are missing in my viewpoint:  1) a physical manifestation of the hobby - I want to pick something up, work on it with my hands, and smell it while it's running, and 2) no in-person interaction - while I like being able to communicate with people all over the planet and see what they're doing, I take a great of pleasure in meeting others and being with them. 

I understand that I may be a dinosaur with some of these viewpoints, but I think that we lose a lot as human beings when everything  becomes virtual. 

I agree. I am an old timer now, I admit, but the physical part of the hobby is what is attracts me. If you are going to go to AR, why not go the entire way to a completely virtual and CGI world?  

My son is 40 and has been a video gamer his entire life. His generation collects and plays with video games as a marker of their childhood, the way we did with toy trains. What it will be for the next generation after them, I have no idea.

Of all the possible manifestations of virtual reality, sci fi, avatars, war games, interplanetary travel, not to mention historical recreations of every type, the niche for virtual trains seems quite small.

I could definitely see holographic augmented reality in the future. The Houston Museum of Natural Science actually has a very cool system that plays off this. Not quite the same but in the same category. It's a 3D white model where the projections bring it to life.

https://youtu.be/aygpMi1Wk8g

If I wanted to play video games I would. I just don’t see it here with O Gauge trains.  What’s the point?  You either want to physically get involved or you don’t. At what point to we just sit in our easy chair and do everything with glasses on. Seems to defeat the purpose. I guess the older guy in me just would rather use this thing called “imagination “ than to have to augment my train layout. 

Don’t get me wrong I enjoy the video games and the virtual tech but I just don’t see the 2 worlds Of physical trains and VR combined. 

Guys...all of this recent discussion is very interesting....but....the posts are WAY off the topic and purpose of this thread.  How about one of you starting a new thread in the traditional category/forum and talk about the virtual layouts, etc.....  Lets try to keep the focus on the original purpose of this thread.

Thanks...