Atlas Factory Shut Down

Well.  I have to confess that with my original post at the start of this thread that I misunderstood the Atlas situation.  I thought that the shutdown was it's annual summer vacation.  Wrong.  Too bad for Atlas. 

I have a good bit of Atlas stuff and will miss their new offerings.  Probably a lot of us are in the same situation.  As we age it is really difficult to place an order that will be delivered who knows when.     That's the way it is.  Great products,I hope that Atlas has the will and desire to continue,especially with their O scale products.  Business is tough. 

Norm 

I made mention earlier about Atlas' supply chain for their track being circumspect.  And then I started thinking about last years Golden Spike Club.  Did any one else receive their car extremely late? Or was I the only member to receive it late.  Now I assume that due to this debacle that 2020 might be a target delivery date for the 2018 membership. I am quickly thinking that a factory shut down is just another clue that was missed in the problem of dealing with China as a supplier. 

Allan Miller posted:

palallin posted:

*sigh*  Yes, of course the Big Corporations' greed is completely responsible for all our woes.  How silly of me to suggest that economic reality has anything to do with it.

Other companies have shown that it is possible to return/retain domestic production with reasonable prices--heck, Lionel is doing some of that themselves.

You can be quite sure that, aside from production of select items such as rolling stock where the tooling is already here (some Lionel product, for example), you will NOT see the manufacturing of major items such as motive power return to the U.S. There may be alternative countries that can handle these things to avoid sticking with China, but I seriously doubt that any of the toy and model train manufacturers, regardless of scale, will return full production to the U.S. As desireable as that might be, it just does not make a whole lot of economic sense these days, especially since, as I understand it, toy train makers today with production in China do not even have full control/ownership over their own tooling.

When the manufacturers moved production to China in the late 1990s, I said to myself, “They’re making a deal here from which there is no return.” Once you go to China, China takes ultimate control of what you bring with you. 

That’s how they have grown to be what they are; western companies gave them everything they had in order to save big on production costs. 

As Pogo said, “We have met the enemy and he is Us.”

In all due respect,  given the source of manufacture for nearly all of our new trains;   tariffs, international politics and trains are about to collide, BIG TIME!!!

Jim Berger posted:

jim pastorius posted:

Hang on to all those old Lionels because when the current China supply dries up those buggers will be after our old stuff.

If it comes down to that, I will likely get out of the hobby before I go back to the old lionels......

If it comes to that, I would go back to HO or N.  I have plenty of good models in those scales.

GG1 4877 posted:

Jim Berger posted:

jim pastorius posted:

Hang on to all those old Lionels because when the current China supply dries up those buggers will be after our old stuff.

If it comes down to that, I will likely get out of the hobby before I go back to the old lionels......

If it comes to that, I would go back to HO or N.  I have plenty of good models in those scales.

And more on the way. Rapido already had my discretionary income locked up for quite a while...and now I'm trying to figure out how to afford a New Haven EP-5. I swear those people at Rapido hate me...

Jeff C

If Atlas WAS shutting down we would have heard by now. Ahhh  the rummer mongers.  

---->NOTHING on their website even suggests anything of the kind!

AlanRail posted:

If Atlas WAS shutting down we would have heard by now. Ahhh  the rummer mongers.  

---->NOTHING on their website even suggests anything of the kind!

No one said Atlas is shutting down. But the fear is that this could hurt Atlas badly, given that Affatech produced so much of its N, HO and O scale products.

It does sound like Atlas has other manufacturing sources, but it will take time and money to transfer tooling, train workers and schedule production at other facilities in China.

As was posted earlier in this thread, Atlas addressed what happened and what it will do in this note:

Atlas has received notification from one of our locomotive and rolling stock suppliers that they have closed their factory. (Please note Atlas track and accessories are NOT affected by this delay.) Atlas is currently working with our network of suppliers to transfer the projects to others for completion. This will cause a delay in some previously ordered products. We apologize for this delay, thank you for your continued support, and will update you with more information as it becomes available. 

Only one of the suppliers is shutting down. They did not write out a list of all their suppliers. 

Andrew

It’s a shame as Atlas does have a nice product line and a I own many pieces. With all the consternation about China, I’m curious if any attempt to manufacture in Thailand or Malaysia would ever be considered. Seems to work well for Mattel. 

Has anyone projected what costs might approach to build, let's say, the GP7 loco or one of the Zephyr cars? I hear minimum run of cars is 200?  Start with the molds, motors, wire, etc. What type of make up is there? What does it cost to ship from China? What would the costs run to build them here? Surely someone can give a better guess than just saying 700.00 or 800.00.

Thanks for the info.

Dick

CBQer posted:

Has anyone projected what costs might approach to build, let's say, the GP7 loco or one of the Zephyr cars? I hear minimum run of cars is 200?  Start with the molds, motors, wire, etc. What type of make up is there? What does it cost to ship from China? What would the costs run to build them here? Surely someone can give a better guess than just saying 700.00 or 800.00.

Thanks for the info.

Dick

Although I can't speak to the exact costs of manufacturing, to give you an idea of how cheap international shipping is, I read somewhere it costs less than $2 to ship a flat screen tv from China to the US. That is obviously assuming you have a full 40 foot container of them and split the cost. Shipping is a negligible part of the cost of our models.

I have a hunch that the people who know actual cost figures don't want to say. You would probably be shocked at the actual low price. But there are always a lot of other operating costs and some profit  for everyone involved factored in.

jim pastorius posted:

I have a hunch that the people who know actual cost figures don't want to say. You would probably be shocked at the actual low price. But there are always a lot of other operating costs and some profit  for everyone involved factored in.

I think you could back into the manufacturing cost by using assumed margins along the distribution channel.  I see a very mature market, equipment built to last a lifetime, decreasing demand based on demographics and a very competitive price point with the likes of eBay etc...  The cost to the manufacturers would have to be low enough (probably almost unbelievable) to keep there business viable.  Razor thin margins I expect.  It would be helpful to know production run numbers.  I'm sure they are available somewhere. Then create a moving chart (5 years) and get out the magic 8 ball.  That would be another topic at a later date. 

You need to find somebody to make the product before you can figure out/negotiate costs, shipping, and margins. Don’t put the cart before the horse. If nobody will make your product there is no cost or profits

If the difference in cost to make product in the states vs China is so small, then why are they all made in China. Clearly it's a fairly substantial difference or else nobody would've loved production over there. It's not rocket science. 

Something I like to point out from time to time regarding the high cost of trains these days:  be careful on Ebay. Sometimes you can find really good deals, but other times you can buy a wanted item from one of the dealers advertising on this forum for quite a bit less. Do your homework.

I am especially amazed at the prices some Ebay sellers are asking for new/current production Lionel. I find that dealers often have lower prices than that and frequently much lower. It pays to shop around!

Dave Warburton posted:

Something I like to point out from time to time regarding the high cost of trains these days:  be careful on Ebay. Sometimes you can find really good deals, but other times you can buy a wanted item from one of the dealers advertising on this forum for quite a bit less. Do your homework.

I am especially amazed at the prices some Ebay sellers are asking for new/current production Lionel. I find that dealers often have lower prices than that and frequently much lower. It pays to shop around!

Ebay seems to have shifted long ago from folks selling things to mostly "stores" selling things and the prices reflect this. Yes, many OGR Forum sponsors sell things for less than they are listed for on the "bay" site. Check them out!!

As a commentary on the situation with Atlas et al and outsourced suppliers, an article in today's NY Times by a business professor had a couple of relevant paragraphs (the topic was about Apple Computer and its business model, that is cash flow heavy versus being heavier on the profit side)

"How does one achieve this apotheosis of the asset-light strategy? First, create a supply chain in Asia run by companies willing to invest in low-return projects that create your products." This is very relevant to what the train manufacturers are doing more than likely, they are working with contract factories that likely operate on low margins, hair thin, to produce the product, so the company can maximize profit on each unit and also not have problems with cash flow (part of Apple's strategy is they pay vendors very slowly, like 100 days between delivery and payment, not sure the train manufacturers can get away with this, given how small they are, but they may find vendors based on willingness to accept deferred payment as well, which can cause cash flow problems with suppliers)

"Second, hold those suppliers under your thumb." Apple gets away with what  they do because suppiers know Apple is a giant and will be a big customers, so they get away with negotiating razor thin margins for the suppliers and things like net 100 day payment, size is important. 

"Idolizing asset-light strategies, however, can also lead to underinvestment, an excessive reliance on outsourcing and the artificial division of companies to avoid hard assets." This doesn't entirely apply to the train manufacturers, but the fact remains that as others have pointed out, the train companies are asset light, other than designing the trains and other products, they don't have  skin in the game with much in the way of physical facilities, most of what they have here are relatively small capital investment in buildings (headquarters, or with small companies, maybe their house), maybe some wearhouse space, and whatever support  they have. Not criticizing this, given the small size of the train market, likely is the only strategy that would work. 

"The accomplishments of Apple’s model are substantial. But the financial strategy that has worked so well for Apple is a risky one for less capable companies with weaker strategic positions. For them, aping Apple can just as easily result in too much debt on their balance sheets, precarious supply chains and deferred opportunities for investments."  Again, this isn't a direct analogy, but parts of it do apply.A company like Apple, that is so huge in the  market, is not weak strategically, they can do a lot more damage to suppliers then the suppliers can to them, if their suppliers pulled what happens with the train manufacturers, that supplier would find themselves in deep doo doo, but with train manufacturers they don't have easy alternatives. 

Again, this isn't a critique of the train manufacturers, but rather it explains why something like Atlas could happen, I suspect a lot of the vendors they use are small firms willing to operate on very tight margins themselves, and when you have that you end up with what we see in the industry, delays in production, problems with production, and even factories shutting down. The sheer size of an Apple's business allows vendors to operate on razor thin margins, the bulk of the profit makes up for that as well as the regularity of production, it is very different for the relatively small companies that make trains. 

It is an interesting article if anyone is interested

ttps://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/06/opinion/apple-trillion-market-cap.html

Hi The 50 th National O Scale convention had a second run of Atlas cars 2 and 3 rail,  on order when we were blindsided by this factory shutdown, in spite of this Atlas has been very cooperative with us and has agreed to work with our group.   Atlas will be our main sponsor and will be at our convention. Patm42 

This thread very clearly shows why a few people are in the business of manufacturing trains and why most are not.  It is not for the faint of heart.  This is especially true when we want better quality, more variety, lower costs, delivered sooner.  In my nearly 10 years of consulting I have learned a lot about the business side and personally I'm glad it's not necessary to my income.  We constantly complain about the price of a new train, yet fail to remember how much a manufacturer puts out as an initial investment just to bring the project to market with the hope that it will sell out.   

To anyone who thinks this is easy, please start a competing company and show those greedy manufacturers how "it's really done"    

Rather get into the proforma of a model project which involves not only numbers but relationships, I simply wish all the affected manufacturers in all scales the best to get their product back to market.   

BigKid: I regret to tell you, a professor of business, doesn't necessarily mean they know anything about being in business.

1. "How does one achieve this apotheosis of the asset-light strategy? First, create a supply chain in Asia run by companies willing to invest in low-return projects that create your products.

No one in Asia wants to do this unless they are borrowing all the money from their cousin at the Bank, and putting 25% in their pocket, or mailing it to their wife in kids in California.

2. "Second, hold those suppliers under your thumb. 

This is an illusion. They are the supplier and are in total control of your product flow. Contracts in China are in-forcible in the US  (THEY CAN SUE YOU IN THE US FOR BREACH OF CONTRACT) . Contracts in the US are not in-forcible in China (CHINESE COURT WILL NOT HEAR A US BREACH OF CONTRACT OR A JUDGEMENT BY US COURT). Look it up. I had to and it scared the heck out of me.

3. "Idolizing asset-light strategies, however, can also lead to under-investment.  I agree with this statement. That means a small company like mine can delegate design, tooling and production to different companies overseas without having to know how to, or do it ourselves. But put this under one roof overseas and the vendor has you over a barrel, and worse yet, they can reproduce your product and compete against you if they are smart enough.

4. In China, if Apple walks, they have ZTE and Wahwei to fill in. Once the gov sends the word, the public will follow and not buy Apple again. They have no power in China. That's why they are bringing production back to the US.

Being in business myself, I rely on my close relationships with our vendors in China and Korea. It's personal. I've known them for many years, and we trust each other. Keep them happy and they will be loyal. Try to squeeze them, you'll be without a supplier faster than you can say, Rumpelstiltskin. 

That's my experience. If I would have known all this when I left my day Job at Blockhead (Lockheed), I would have stayed.

Bi-weekly paychecks, cheap health insurance, a pension plan... What was I thinking? I do love what I do. I love being a project engineer and managing this small business and I love making our customers happy. That's worth it I guess. 

But you have brought so much joy to the world, Scott! 

I was shocked to find all my old Atlas HO track , is now old, all labeled, "Made in USA". Part of it is just how poorly educated us citizens have become. A couple from over seas wanted to open a candle factory, not trains, but a manufacturing business, in I can't quite remember, New Jersey, or Maryland, and had to send the management back for remedial addition and subtraction. Given they were in an area of the U.S.A. with the highest levels of education achievement from their K-12, it says trying to bring it back may be impossible from the poor educations received here unfortunately.

I guess the two Milwaukee Roads items I bought from them over the past twenty years wasn't enough to keep them afloat. Too bad,they made high quality models.

john in western pa posted:

In all due respect,  given the source of manufacture for nearly all of our new trains;   tariffs, international politics and trains are about to collide, BIG TIME!!!

Some good news: At the LCCA convention, Lionel's president, Howard Hitchcock, said that the tariffs currently being talked about would NOT affect our trains. They would target items of major economic significance; toys are significant to us, but not in the global economic scheme.

Dan986 posted:

I guess the two Milwaukee Roads items I bought from them over the past twenty years wasn't enough to keep them afloat. Too bad,they made high quality models.

Again, Atlas isn’t shutting down. The Chinese factory that made a good share of their product closed suddenly, forcing Atlas to scramble to move production elsewhere. Did you read this thread?

Keith L posted:

Some good news: At the LCCA convention, Lionel's president, Howard Hitchcock, said that the tariffs currently being talked about would NOT affect our trains. They would target items of major economic significance; toys are significant to us, but not in the global economic scheme.

Our Administration would be quite the Grinch if we put tariffs on toys. lol. But, who knows …. in our continuing trade war with China?

I read at Reuters that toys, games, and sporting goods imports from China totaled $29 Billion last year. 

So, three months from now, when we're deciding which new tariffs to impose …. will it be office equipment, or will it be Junior's LEGO set? lol. And, what about three months after that, after Christmas?

Anywho, it's a strange world. We're just a bunch of nice folks who like to play with toy choo-choo trains, and we have all this drama of factory closures, tooling possession, etc 

Looking forward to Atlas shipping product.

In the USA, we have turned into (or been turned into) a bunch of "WalMart shoppers"- we want everything cheap.....but a LOT of it. 

I teach middle-school kids "Global Economy" as part of the current version of Junior Achievement.  "JA" WAS (1970's) an organization that a kid joined for a school year. meeting multiple times to run a simulated business and make a product is no more.  Now we get ONE 1/2-day session a year.

As part of that session, I use "Jeans and Mustangs" as a tool.  First I ask all who own at least 4 pairs of jeans to raise their hands- almost every child in a class of 25 or so does (sometimes I have to clarify that "plain" blue jeans and decorated ones are ALL still jeans.)  

I tell them that- in 1967, there were ONLY USA-made jeans, and that Levi Brand cost $18 per pair. They ALL think of Levi's as higher quality than many others, and are amazed at the low $18 1967 price.  Their parents are paying as low as $ 7.50 to as much as $ 25 at WalMart - all made in the far east. 

I then tell them that I only had TWO pair- new for the beginning of the college year, one to wash and one to wear.  In spring- those became by "work jeans" for wearing on the township road crew.  But-today- two pair is not acceptable.

I tell them that in 1967, a base Ford Mustang cost $ 2400, and that today it is roughly 10X that.  Of course, there is NO comparison- it is a far better car- disc brakes, A/C, better fuel economy, galvanized steel, etc. etc.    As well, the Mustang is largely made in the USA, using American materials, and union labor. 

I for one also admire the fact that my PW Lionel products were high-quality "toys " that still run 65 years later, and were not only "Made in USA" but also made in one of the highest-cost of living areas OF the USA.   Our country COULD do that again... IF we were willing to pay the price.  Our people are just as skilled, although maybe our education system puts too much emphasis on "white collar" careers and too little on skilled trades.

My point:  IF we consumers were willing to buy quality, and pay more for "Made in USA", willing to pay more to have more US workers employed and IF we would be satisfied with "just two pair" (or just two engines?) ---then we could have more USA-made goods. 

It IS all up to us.  It is NOT "management", or "stockholders"-  it is the consumers.

You are so right, we all " vote " with our dollars.

Mike Wyatt posted:

In the USA, we have turned into (or been turned into) a bunch of "WalMart shoppers"- we want everything cheap.....but a LOT of it. 

I teach middle-school kids "Global Economy" as part of the current version of Junior Achievement.  "JA" WAS (1970's) an organization that a kid joined for a school year. meeting multiple times to run a simulated business and make a product is no more.  Now we get ONE 1/2-day session a year.

As part of that session, I use "Jeans and Mustangs" as a tool.  First I ask all who own at least 4 pairs of jeans to raise their hands- almost every child in a class of 25 or so does (sometimes I have to clarify that "plain" blue jeans and decorated ones are ALL still jeans.)  

I tell them that- in 1967, there were ONLY USA-made jeans, and that Levi Brand cost $18 per pair. They ALL think of Levi's as higher quality than many others, and are amazed at the low $18 1967 price.  Their parents are paying as low as $ 7.50 to as much as $ 25 at WalMart - all made in the far east. 

I then tell them that I only had TWO pair- new for the beginning of the college year, one to wash and one to wear.  In spring- those became by "work jeans" for wearing on the township road crew.  But-today- two pair is not acceptable.

I tell them that in 1967, a base Ford Mustang cost $ 2400, and that today it is roughly 10X that.  Of course, there is NO comparison- it is a far better car- disc brakes, A/C, better fuel economy, galvanized steel, etc. etc.    As well, the Mustang is largely made in the USA, using American materials, and union labor. 

I for one also admire the fact that my PW Lionel products were high-quality "toys " that still run 65 years later, and were not only "Made in USA" but also made in one of the highest-cost of living areas OF the USA.   Our country COULD do that again... IF we were willing to pay the price.  Our people are just as skilled, although maybe our education system puts too much emphasis on "white collar" careers and too little on skilled trades.

My point:  IF we consumers were willing to buy quality, and pay more for "Made in USA", willing to pay more to have more US workers employed and IF we would be satisfied with "just two pair" (or just two engines?) ---then we could have more USA-made goods. 

It IS all up to us.  It is NOT "management", or "stockholders"-  it is the consumers.

2nd and Hallelujah and amen to that!  

How many people on this forum think people who buy one or two higher end like Sunset are crazy when you can get 10 MTH which are "just as good 10 feet away".

When I taught JA about 10 years ago it was one hour a week for a semester. 

The situation might not be too bad for the modeler.  Those who like shiny new things (like a new automobile every year) might be disappointed, but this could be an opportunity for people to build kits, buy previously enjoyed models (OK, OK, used), or even revive the mostly forgotten art of scratchbuilding.  If supplies of brand-new O-Scale really do dry up for awhile, I believe we can weather the storm.  Model RR manufacturing has bounced around Asia for decades, starting in Japan, then migrating to Korea and China.  If we cannot stir ourselves to produce domestically, perhaps there is a country (not necessarily Asian) which would like to become a supplier of manufactured model RR goods.  Didn't Atlas originally import from Austria?  While there is no way to spin this as anything but bad news, those of us not commercially invested in the hobby may be just fine in the long run.  

When life hands you lemons, it's time to make lemonade.

Bill Chaplik posted:

The situation might not be too bad for the modeler.  Those who like shiny new things (like a new automobile every year) might be disappointed, but this could be an opportunity for people to build kits, buy previously enjoyed models (OK, OK, used), or even revive the mostly forgotten art of scratchbuilding.  If supplies of brand-new O-Scale really do dry up for awhile, I believe we can weather the storm.  Model RR manufacturing has bounced around Asia for decades, starting in Japan, then migrating to Korea and China.  If we cannot stir ourselves to produce domestically, perhaps there is a country (not necessarily Asian) which would like to become a supplier of manufactured model RR goods.  Didn't Atlas originally import from Austria?  While there is no way to spin this as anything but bad news, those of us not commercially invested in the hobby may be just fine in the long run.  

When life hands you lemons, it's time to make lemonade.

I have an Atlas Bridge made in Austria, so yes they did.

Bill Chaplik posted:

 Didn't Atlas originally import from Austria?

The original Atlas O made in the 1970's was made by Roco in Austria:

As was their first venture in making HO locomotives.

Rusty

I suspect that O rolling stock and locomotive COULD return to the US, but we’d pay a lot more.

Once, after buying a British modeling magazine to steal ideas, I went and perused the ads for O scale locos, and saw a listing for a loco made by a certain well-known manufacturer who used to make stuff for Con Cor back in the day.

NOT CHEAP. You could get two or possibly 3 MTH locos for the price. But I think they are made in Europe, not China.

Rusty Traque posted:

Bill Chaplik posted:

 Didn't Atlas originally import from Austria?

The original Atlas O made in the 1970's was made by Roco in Austria:

As was their first venture in making HO locomotives.

Rusty

And in N scale as well, with Atlas’ GP9, GP30 and other locomotives prior to 1983. Atlas also worked with Rivarossi in Italy for N scale.

Atlas rebranded a lot of Kato Japan models up into the early to mid 2000’s I believe. Kato models are first rate and quite affordable for being manufactured in Japan. Eventually they moved production to China and basically copied the Kato drives. While the detail of the Chinese models is superior the quality of the drives is not. Atlas Chinese models are still more expensive than the Kato Japanese models 

Matt Makens posted:

Atlas rebranded a lot of Kato Japan models up into the early to mid 2000’s I believe. Kato models are first rate and quite affordable for being manufactured in Japan. Eventually they moved production to China and basically copied the Kato drives. While the detail of the Chinese models is superior the quality of the drives is not. Atlas Chinese models are still more expensive than the Kato Japanese models 

For N and HO, Atlas worked with Kato in Japan beginning in 1983 but switched to Chinese production based on Kato designs less than a decade later. It roughly coincided with Atlas’ move from American production of its N scale rolling stock line to Chinese production. I can’t recall the exact year, but it happened while I was working at Hub between 1988 and 1996. I’d say roughly 1992.

Will Ebbert posted:

If the difference in cost to make product in the states vs China is so small, then why are they all made in China. Clearly it's a fairly substantial difference or else nobody would've loved production over there. It's not rocket science. 

Actually it is, it isn't the simplistic idea people have. When production initially moved to China you were dealing with a country with a lot of people to employ and wanted to become a major player in the world economy, and they had a state run economy (which it still very much is, though a hybrid now), they had a government investing in the infrastructure needed to produce  things, rail, roads, airports, container ports, and they had a huge labor force willing to work for very low wages with no benefits (basically the workers kind of lived like day laborers do here in the US, lived in conditions with many people sharing a room, and so forth). And the gap was staggering, you were talking 50c  an hour wages and because of no labor laws, working 6,7 days a week, 15 hours a day, compared to a typical wage in the 20 bucks an hour range, plus benefits...and even with the difference in living standards, that wage rate in China is not middle class or even what we would consider working class. Other things help level the cost difference, but it was enough to make a significant difference  in cost.  The irony was a lot of the companies who went offshore were making money, but being able to slash labor costs that sharply and quickly was a big inducement. There were costs to doing this, quality went out the window in many cases, from what has been published things like the reject rate and doa off the lines is high, and when you have assembly like that your costs downfield go up, too, and that cost made building in China not as cheap as you might think...and this depends on the type of product being made, too, different for a cheap gee gaw and something like an Iphone.  

It is a different story these days, China is trying to move upscale and get away from the low wage manufacturing that put them on the map, they want to make their own products higher up the food chain, and the costs have risen there a lot all across the board (from what I have been told by friends who deal with vendors there, things like electric power were once heavily subsidized, these days is market rate, and the cost of materials to a certain extent was subsidized), plus they are having trouble finding people willing to work the kind of jobs we are talking about, so prices have risen, and significantly. It is still cheaper than the US, but for the really low margin items, Chinese factories have been interestingly enough automating, and they also are building factories in places like Vietnam and Africa to take advantage of low wages there, basically for the really low wage stuff the moving wheel is in action again, the same wheel that moved mill jobs from the northeast to the south in the US when labor rates went up, and then went offshore. 

The real cost is as others have pointed out, to move back to the US they likely would have to start from square one. It would require modern, heavily automated plants relying on things like CNC machines (in China, things done here on a CNC would be done via old fashined jig and manual cutting kind of thing), but more importantly probably recreating a lot of the tooling, which can be impossible to get out of China (one company decided to move its tooling out of China, they owned it, and mysteriously "it was lost in shipping" from an account I heard at a conference I was at), and that is costly. You can see the rise in costs with how much the trains we buy are going up, but given all the factors, especially for small companies like Lionel and Atlas, it still is cost effective for them given all the other factors. Eventually things like 3D printing, if it does what some think it will do, could bring back manufacturing here or other more efficient technologies, you could have contract manufacturers  here  building things for small companies, though likely wouldn't not involve a lot of jobs either. 

The real question (to me) is technology is taking jobs faster than outsourcing is, and no one has an answer to that one.....