Greenberg's Lionel Trains Price Guide

I find it useful as a guide but not the last word on the market. Walking around shows gives you a better idea of the market.

The one I have for post war is not even close. Way high compared to what they are selling for. I don't even consider it a"guide" at this point. I usually check sold transactions for eBay or what is being asked on the buy/sell board here.

the price guides will give you a very accurate relative value of a piece.  if your bridge is selling for 17% less than book, you can probably count on other new piece listings in the same -17% range.  of course the larger the sample, the more accurate your estimate will be.

as far as older post and prewar, there are far too many variables to make an accurate and usable guide.  not only are there quite a few more conditions than just "good" and "excellent", but there are also longer term market trends.  with more collections being put up for sale in recent years, the general trend is that more common pieces are seeing a much heavier discount of the book value than more desirable pieces.  but the bottom line is that if you see a book price of $100 on Car A and $300 on Car B and they are both fairly common, regardless of the actual price being realized for Car A, you can bet that the average realized price for Car B will be ~3x as much.

In a volatile market, I don't think its possible to print a price guide with accurate prices. Still, I like the large, book format price guides for the information they contain. I keep old issues because the detailed information is not always carried forward to new editions. A good example would be the details of early Modern era (post 1970) ALCOs. I had been wondering about some of the variations, only to find the information in an older modern era price guide.  All that written, one must be aware that there are errors here and there, and sometimes new information becomes available. As others have written, the prices often give an idea of relative value.

I did not purchase every large format price guide as they were released. They were far too expensive. When I see them offered for sale, I do pick up old editions that I do not already have.

IHMO, the pocket versions of the price guides are only good as checklists. I have a couple of old ones floating around. Once in a while I'll grab one to see what year an item was made. Otherwise, I don't find them to be of any use.

In my opinion, one of the great features of the Greenberg price guide is the rarity rating. I find this very useful in deterring my own value for an item. It is also a great reference to have all of the items made listed in one place. I find it fun to read through a category and learn about uncatalogued pieces. 

I'm on the younger side of folks on here and I still find these guides relevant. 

Looking back at some of the older copies of this price guide....under the section then entitled "How Product Values Are Determined"...I note that values were (are?) determined from train meets throughout the nation in the year preceding publication,"and from private transactions reported by members of our nationwide review panel."  

Ding-Ding-Ding-Ding-Ding!!!  Who makes up this "review panel"?  And what are these private transactions?  And how do value assessments/compensation in these private transactions relate to the very public arena of train shows, flea markets, garage sales, internet/commercial auctions, etc., etc.????

My perspective on this 'review panel', 'private transactions' caveat is that the contributors in this group are heavily invested themselves in the collecting hobby of Toy Trains.  In fact, with the heyday of rising Lionel trains values in the latter years of the last century, many of these review panel folks may have paid dearly to acquire high quality pieces for their private collections.......only to see values begin to fall back as the real depth of the supply side coupled with the stagnation/decline of the consumer side (e.g., aging buyer demographics) moderated the frenzy....leading them to try to protect their investments with generous evaluations.   After all, if you were setting a value of your collection for insurance purposes, you'd probably be shooting to the high side....eh what?? 

The discussion went on to say that "Values in your area may be consistent with values published in this guide, or higher or lower, depending upon the relative availability, scarcity, or desirability of a particular item.  General economic conditions in your area may also affect values.  Even regional preferences for specific roadnames may be a factor."  "General economic conditions"??....Sheesh, during this election year you hear blather that either says the economy is growing and fantastic!!!....or it's stagnant to declining!!  Pick one.....but keep to yourself on this forum.

Ergo, that the price guide is good for relative values and not absolute values is probably the best assessment.  When we (LHS) sell the guide to customers, we simply tell them to not take the values therein too seriously. 

KD

I did not know they still made that book.  I looked at one years ago and the prices were way off.  I never put any stock in that book.

In my opinion, one of the great features of the Greenberg price guide is the rarity rating

I didn't know Greenberg books had a rarity rating. I thought that was a TM feature.

I use a pocket version purely as a checklist, nothing more, nothing less.

All the best,

Miketg

I thought the scandle this year in the Greenbergs yearly book was that they adjusted everything across the board to be more realistic and not basing it on a gradual incline to some formula like they seem to have been doing for several years. The last few years the numbers have been silly and not in line with the real prices paid in the hobby. 

I would not be surprised if train dealers keep the 2015 book on hand at train shows to show to buyers and keep the 2016 book to show to sellers. 

My dad used to collect antique fishing lures and there was a guy who published two price guides like this, one low priced and one high. He would sell to others using the high book and buy from others using the low book. 

The guides with the photos and variations days are gone and it has been announced they will not return. The Kughn era book is the most contemporary these ever got. 

Another question......how come the Kelly Blue and Black book for autos is accurate and the Greenberg's guide is not? How do they do it and and Greenberg can't?

Another question......how come the Kelly Blue and Black book for autos is accurate and the Greenberg's guide is not? How do they do it and and Greenberg can't?

The used car market for common cars is not very volatile, and Kelly sets the prices.
Does Kelly have accurate pricing for collector cars?

I am not defending the guide one way or the other but I look at it as a guide and nothing more.  The question to ask is the price the highest price someone thinks they can sell  it for or is it the lowest price they can accept for it.  I believe the prices in the guide are the highest price wishful thinkers hope they could sell it for.  They are the MSRPs  of the collecting world.  99 percent of the world does not pay MSRP.  Prices are "discounted" off MSRP to give you the impression that you are getting a good deal.  So look at the guide as MSRP prices that no one is going buy or sell at.  The real price will undoubtedly always be lower.  What will really set the price is rarity and demand.  The higher they are the closer to MSRP you get or potentially you exceed.  That's how I look at this guide.  BigRail 

A guide, that's all it is. I usually buy a year old one every few years and that's close enough to stay current.

It is what it is.  Kelly Blue book changes several times a day at KBB.com.  KBB has more people involved than Greenberg.  I use KBB as I flip specialty cars.  Miketg made a good point about GB being a good checklist book.

The Great Hey Day of Postwar is pretty much done and gone.  Thus, IMHO, the effectiveness and usefulness of the Greenburg Guide has passed, too. The trend (to me) seems to be that when a batch of common PW becomes available (due to attrition/whatever), there are less interested in purchasing them (due to attrition/ whatever).

Frankly, this is a great time for those of us that still appreciate common Postwar to purchase nice examples at acceptable price points. However, I'm just not allowing myself to EVEN THINK about starting in on Postwar again!  I have too many other interests that vie for my attention and hobby dollars, and too few years left in which to indulge.  Plus, there's simply no place for a Postwar layout of any type in our current home situation.

Still though... I haven't been able YET to offer up for sale my last PW piece: A nice 665 steam engine and tender.  I still find it pleasant to pick it up, feel its heft, smell that "PW smell", et al... you PW guys know what I'm talking about.

To me these books have always been a "Gee-Wiz", "Kind-of-Sort of", " guess-ta-mation" of real world prices .

I always coupled it's information with other sources like the LCCA, O-gauge and CTT magazines as well as posted adds from advertiser's in said mags.  

It's all kind of fun if you don't take it all too seriously.

TrainHead posted:

What is the purpose of this guide? <SNIP>

I use it for only one purpose - as a NUMBER and description guide. Prices are only what YOU are willing to shell out for.

Ron M

The best source of PRICE information is eBay "completed auctions", if the item has sold recently.  These prices represent many buyers for one item.  It may not be representative of a one buyer and one seller, garage sale, flea market, estate, newspaper ads, OGR forum, train meet, etc. sales.

Prices vary as to location, time of year, size of market and should not be considered current and are variable:  Therefore the term Price GUIDE.

The paper price guides are good for product information, pictures etc. of a Lionel or others trains and accessories and are probably not worth the full list price when late issue but can be useful as general references when bought used and older issues at greatly reduced prices.

Charlie

The main purpose, and the only true purpose, is for insurance estimations.  They represent the replacement value, or as the insurance companies refer to it, Actual Cash Value (ACV).  Usually the ACV takes into consideration any taxes and the difficulty of finding a replacement.  Along with photo and descriptive documentation, the price guide is where the insurance company turns when they need an accurate value on a claim.  Even then, it's a guesstimate, but gives the insurance company a starting point during negotiations.

Bruce

All Right, Greenberg and TM Productions Listings, Values, are all subject to the Eye of the Beholder. Its a way of figuring a price for resale or purchase.  The Kelly Blue Book, NADA, Edmonds, and of course The Black Book are updated hourly, daily, and monthly....Cars are subject to Bank Approval, which is a story in itself. I like the Greenberg value as a starting place for pricing my trains on this forum. So far, its way off. I consider the offers, and make the adjusted pricing as close to the buyers wishes as I can. Postage is a problem on one item, one car, etc..... Its a fun hobby, Lets enjoy it together....

These guides have their purpose for inventory purposes, etc., but price have always been a accuracy problem.

I would echo the comment about checking Ebay prices (and other on-line pricing) to get a better and more immediate feel for current pricing on any item.

I also agree that shipping costs for items sold on-line have become a huge issue. We sold a 3-car freight car set the other day for $119 and for the  4.5 lbs. weight it cost over twenty dollars to ship UPS ground to the buyer. As for selling a couple of complete sets I have, we're talking fifty bucks shipping on a $200 set. How many people will pay that kind of freight charge?

I also agree that shipping costs for items sold on-line have become a huge issue. We sold a 3-car freight car set the other day for $119 and for the  4.5 lbs. weight it cost over twenty dollars to ship UPS ground to the buyer. As for selling a couple of complete sets I have, we're talking fifty bucks shipping on a $200 set. How many people will pay that kind of freight charge?

When I am making a purchase on EBay, or any other place where shipping is involved, I include shipping as part of my cost evaluation. Hopefully your buyer on the freight set felt it was worth over $139 to him. If your sets are worth $200, and the freight is going to be $50, then I don't see how anybody would bid more than $150, making their total $200. Then there are all those EBay and PayPal fees. I guess that is the reason I rarely sell anything on EBay.

Volume shippers get a tremendous discount on their shipping costs. I guess that is how they are able to ship orders for free that are over a certain dollar value.

Wow! No pics....NO Thanks! I still keep the old 1970's- 1990's versions because of the pics. 

As was stated many times before on this forum, eBay auctions give you the current values. That guide is outdated the day it's printed...EDP if there are no more pics.

Greenberg's Lionel Trains Price Guide - That’s hilarious! A good scam that lasted too long.  When the internet, MTH and others arrived on the scene, it was pretty much over from a unique collecting standpoint.

 People can’t even sell 6464’s on eBay starting at 99 cents these days. No bids! 

I mark my inventory in my Greenberg Guide-find it a useful tool. Don't like flea bay, don't use it.  To each his own.

I use it as a checklist, too....and it has value because it puts all the product numbers in one place.....I look at the prices for their entertainment value.....

Remember, when these Price Guides started to be made, no one had heard of the internet! They just can't keep up.....

Peter

dkdkrd posted: 

... My perspective on this 'review panel', 'private transactions' caveat is that the contributors in this group are heavily invested themselves in the collecting hobby of Toy Trains.  In fact, with the heyday of rising Lionel trains values in the latter years of the last century, many of these review panel folks may have paid dearly to acquire high quality pieces for their private collections.......only to see values begin to fall back as the real depth of the supply side coupled with the stagnation/decline of the consumer side (e.g., aging buyer demographics) moderated the frenzy....leading them to try to protect their investments with generous evaluations.   After all, if you were setting a value of your collection for insurance purposes, you'd probably be shooting to the high side... the price guide is good for relative values and not absolute values is probably the best assessment...

That explains my suspicions about the Greenberg guides, too. Well said.

GEEZE...........

Some of us married guys have a 3rd reason to use the GB price guide......

 Dear...... you won't believe this deal I just got off ebay, unbelievable........... I can't believe it ! I just bought both two car sets of the Lionel Canadian National Budd cars. They're  listed in the price guide for a total of $456. and I just bought them both for only $260. Do you believe it, I saved almost $200.   

Wow! No pics....NO Thanks! I still keep the old 1970's- 1990's versions because of the pics. 

As was stated many times before on this forum, eBay auctions give you the current values. That guide is outdated the day it's printed...esp if there are no more pics.

Sometimes I wonder whether the Greenberg price guides and TM books were responsible for a significant part of the growth in toy train collecting and operating. Before they came out, people had to rely on old catalogs, advertisements and word of mouth to learn about trains. I think the creation of a readily available information source drove a lot of the hobby's growth.

I spent a lot of time trying to learn about and collect items that weren't well documented in the guides. The "old way" of learning and collecting was a lot more fun. The guides (and EBay) make it too easy to collect.

I agree on it being easier to collect/accumulate today plus, especially, eBay and other sites. I also think there are regional differences. The last time I bought a new Greenberg Guide, about 2 years ago, I went through it marking  the items I had and comparing the listed values using the "VG" price. I was surprised at the number of ones that went down !!  Not a lot but more were down than up.  I study something, usually an engine or accessory, I am interested in then compare the listed values to what I see at shows and here on the Forum.  A long time ago the Greenberg guide helped me acquire a Lionel standard gauge 217 caboose in excellent condition painted in orange and maroon at a very, very good price.  It was in an antique store and I grabbed it. Still sits on my shelf.

TrainHead posted:

What is the purpose of this guide? 

people that publish it see it as a way to make money.i feel foolish buying those guides 20-30 years ago......making greenberg rich.

Its good for insurance claims.

I buy one every year that ends in "3" for reference.

I really don't pay attention to the pricing. I already know what the value is(to me) of anything I'm interested in buying.