Originally Posted by hojack:
50 years from now, do you think your new-in-2012 Lionel tinplate will be worth more in original condition with play wear, or touched up?
Don't think it's going to matter much either way, play wear or touched up, but if I went to the future, looking for tinplate from this era, I'd say I would not bother with buying any piece with play wear or touched up pieces. There will be enough shelf queens that you would be able to get a "mint in the box" piece fairly easily.
The modern stuff are all adult "collectibles" today, and that's based on who can afford them. No one today is going to buy a $1200 repro 400E blue comet and give it to their grandchildren to play with without supervision, and it wouldn't be the kids' train anyway. So, almost all this stuff will always be in better condition than the originals, a lot never run, and almost all of it never played with by kids, with the exception of supervised operation.
I doubt you'll see a great appreciation in value for any of the modern era repro stuff. Although the really cool items like the Lionel SG Hiawatha, and Commodore, as well as the Brute, and most likely the Super 381 would be better bets for modern tinplate that will gain value over time.
Rarity and condition determine value, so a rare Brute with some scuffs on the articulating sections would be a better bet than a 2012 sealed box MTH 318E or 400E. Of course this is only my opinion.