The "Future" of our hobby

Shows like TrainFest are not sponsored by the manufactures.  They are sponsored by organized model railroader's.

 

Train Fest itself started small in 1971 in a VFW hall and grew to the monster it is, sponsored by the dedicated folks in the WISE (Wisconsin Southeastern) division of the National Model Railroad Association(NMRA.) 

 

It's organizations like the NMRA, TCA, LCCA that keep the hobby alive.

 

Rusty

 

I am 22, and being a younger member of this hobby, this has always been a concern of mine. I asked on here a few years ago on the 3 rail forum (not this scale one, but the other one) for members under 30 to post and let us know they are out there. That thread ended up having several pages of posts, and most were from people my age or younger.

 

I think part of the reason we do not see so many younger people active in the hobby is time. Think about it, many people my age are going to school and working. That does not leave a lot of free time for more important things like family, friends, GIRLS, and such. Just not enough hours in the day. Notice how many of the older members (no offense intended) got involved once their children were grown up? That frees up a lot of time, time they can use for the hobby. I think the hobby will survive, maybe not quite as strongly as it is, between the loss of baby boomers in the future (hopefully not for a long, long time), and just the larger variety of hobbies, but there will always be a train hobby.

 

Just my $.02

Always keep in mind that it is YOUR hobby (for whatever reason) to enjoy in the way YOU want to enjoy it.  It really matters little what the future holds because that's not something you can control, aside from doing your personal best to share YOUR joy of the hobby with others around you.  Beyond that, there's virtually nothing you or even thousands of younger participants like you can do to control or even markedly influence what happens.

 

This hobby will get smaller.  There's no way around that, and the factors that lead me to that conclusion are too numerous in number to expound on them here (although I've gone into that subject in multiple threads here in the past). 

 

You can be quite sure that us oldsters, in our own past histories, went through the very same things you younger folks are dealing with in terms of time and resources.  We also went to college, got started in careers, got married, bought homes, raised families, and so on and so forth.  I think it's safe to say that a majority of us left the hobby at some point after school and then came back to it later in life after some of life's more significant demands were attended to.  I left the train hobby about midway through high school (although I did sell trains at a local department store during the Christmas seasons), and I didn't come back until some 20 years later, give or take, after college, military service, formative years in my career, and so forth.  That's pretty much the "normal" course of how things go with this and many other hobbies.

 

The real difference that you younger folks will have to contend with in the future is product availability.  There almost certainly will never again be the bounty of items that has been available over the past 18 years or so and is still available today.  Those of us in the War Years and Baby Boom generations are responsible for that treasure trove, and many of us have now pretty much satisfied our wants and needs.  Moreover, we are starting to fade from the scene.  Our large numbers influenced the production that has been so evident over those past 18 or so years, and those numbers will never again be available in the toy train marketplace.  That is simple fact.

 

My advice is to just enjoy the hobby in any way you can and for as long as your are able, just so long as it continues to bring you pleasure and relaxation.  Don't worry about the future, at least as far as toy trains are concerned.  We're leaving you plenty of other things to worry about already.

Hello Gents,

 

Interesting perspectives.

 

In my case, I found my Dad's old Lionel set (as a kid), got everything running & built a 4' x 8' layout with my Grandpa.

 

Today, I love realistic 3-rail especially Weaver & will eventually double my layout and make it more realistic.

 

I also "can't comprehend" the prices that Lionel, etc. charge for stuff, especially since it is made overseas. Weaver has become my personal favorite. I also like that some of the cars are still made in the US.

 

Regards,

 

Ron W.

Let me say from all of us here on the Forum a hearty 'Welcome Ron' to the hobby in general and the Forum in particular. We hope you will continue and avail yourself of the vast amount of great information and advice available here. Us 'oldsters' didn't have the opportunity to learn as much as is available now due to the internet when we were younger.

Talk with your friends and share your enthusiasm with them. Also to the younger kids and their parents. So much to learn rom the hobby of trains - history, commerce, engineering, photography, railfanning, etc.  A great hobby for the whole family!

Even if the hobby gets smaller as Allan stated, current offerings from Lionel, MTH, and Atlas offer levels of detail, realism, sophisticated sound, and control like has never been offered before.

 

It may be becoming a smaller hobby, but the quality is increasing.  There is a lot to enjoy now, and to look forward to in the near future.

Unfortunately, this is not a new topic.  It has been brought up by both new modelers and long-timers.

 

From the January 1994 Model Railroader magazine (their 60th anniversary) in an article discussing the future of the model railroad hobby:

 

“I believe manufactures, media, dealers and hobbies all need to increase their joint effort to involve more young people in the hobby.”  -Herb Kern, Mobile Al.

Also, another bit of insight, that sounds very similar to concerns expressed by folks today.  The question was "What can manufacturers and dealers do to increase your enjoyment of the hobby?"(Remember, the internet wasn't what it is today back in 1994, there isn't a single .com in the magazine...):

 

“Many readers pleaded for lower prices and higher quality (including the accuracy of detail and paint schemes). Beyond that sort of response, there was a wide diversity: unhappiness over expensive, limited edition locomotives; discontent over the availability of products; requests for rolling stock  with a variety of numbers or no numbers at all; suggestions that cars and locomotives be built with Kadee coupler conversions in mind (and in general, more cooperation between manufactures); a call for more information with electrical or electronic devices; requests that dealers keep up on new products and trends and that they accept phone orders; and comments about manufacturer response about lack of manufacturer response to consumer inquiries.”

The hobby in general will survive, just very likely not as we know it today.

 

Rusty

Its attitudes like this that chased manufacturing away from the US and into China.

 

I really wish people would stop demanding something for nothing, but this attitude is as pervasive now as in 1994.
 

My two 66 year old friends and I have been building layouts together since we were in the third grade. As we talk about how we have enjoyed the hobby together for almost 60 years and try to share that experience with our children and grandchildren, we realize that they have so many more options to entertain themselves than we had. If we were lucky enough to have trains, the choice to play with the trains versus playing tiddely winks, Cootie, pick up sticks, jacks, and other simple games, etc. made the choice to play and bond with our trains a pretty easy one. They became one of the main sources of our childhood pleasure. Most of us went through a misguided time of life when we gave up our trains for girls and cars. When we came back to our senses as "adults ", it was so easy to fall in love again and take up model railroading with a passion. I doubt that the passion is there for the children of today, but they still enjoy the trains when they have a chance to "play" with them.

 

I think we all have realized how important and enjoyable it is for us to share our love for the hobby with children and young adults. Train clubs that encourage kids and young adults to become members have a better future. It is an effort to have "kids' days" where the children are encouraged to come in and build things and run the trains. It is work and takes time away from running the trains, but the children love to come back and look at what they have built. Many of our young families do not have the space or resources to build a railroad. I know many people who's greatest pleasure is sharing and building their individual layouts with neighbors and their children. I am going to look for more ways to share my layout. It is a grass roots effort on all of our parts  and I hope that this thread encourages us to express our ideas on how to help children and young families get involved with something that has given us a lifetime of enjoyment.

 Ed

One thing to keep in mind is many of us were introduced to model trains as kids, then got away from them for years, and now are coming back.  I suspect that some of the kids you see at shows will "rediscover" model trains at some point in the future when time and finances allow it.

I believe "Rapid Prototyping" will eventually increase our ranks, once the costs come down (and they will, like all other electronic gadgets).

 

When you can start with a common base model, then start making different detail parts to suit a particular prototypical interest, more scale modelers will come over to the "King Of Scales".  As long as we have folks like Jerry Glow offering to make decals per request, we should be alright (hope he's around for a few more decades!).

I agree with much of what was posted above EXCEPT for there being a dearth of other

activities for kids besides trains....While I was introduced to trains by my cousin's

pre-war Lionel set, I also played with a toy I have not been able to find....a WWII

toy of a bomb sight that dropped wooden bombs (with sharp "nail" points on them, that would horrify Big Brother) unto a target board, that we used to place at the bottom of a stairs and drop bombs from a height.  We also got bicycles.  We later

had Marx playsets, western towns and ranches, and spent DAYS reconducting the

Lincoln County War on the living room floor.  We also had Erectorbrik sets (also darn hard to find today) and built structures with them for the trains and for the playsets. 

Some built outdoors were blown up with firecrackers.  And there were cap pistols and the great outdoors.  We broke so many capguns that are now very expensively collectible, and a collecting temptation I repress.  And we built model airplanes to fly in flames of the roof of the garage, and then Revell Highway Pioneer and Hudson Miniature antique car models.  We dug roads all around our garden and pushed the Hudson Miniature cars around them (not what they were designed for, and resulted in frequent repairs) We also had Sorry, Monopoly, and other board games.  And yet I have stayed with trains, although occasionally have wandered off on other tangets.

These electronic toys kids play with today are OBE'd so fast, they will have no lasting impact, while, if real railroads survive, models of them should.

Tiddley winks?  Prithee, you jest? uh, what IS that?

I guess we all need things that aren't all that critical to worry about as a substitute for worrying about the really important things that are troubling us at any give time in life.  It's all going to be fine, more or less,  until it isn't.

 

When in doubt, remember:

 

Yogi Berra: It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

How many kids play cowboys and Indians? Have cap pistols? Build model clipper ships (mine was decent for little skill)? Build model stage coaches (a long-gone neighbor's is on permanent display in my dining room)?  Build anything???

Fewer people have exposure to trains and the current ones I see are not inspiring in any way. What do the young do outdoors? The electronic revolution, supervised group everything for youth, plus air conditioning is changing their lifestyle in a big way.

With a gloomy outlook like that, I suspect the forum handle was appropriately chosen.

Just proves the old saying that "the more things change, the more they stay the same." 

 

Same stuff, different day!  

 

But nobody who has an interest in this hobby, regardless of age, should be fearful or discouraged about the hobby's future.  It will be just fine, and if fewer participants are actively engaged, that will just make it all the more special to those who are engaged and those who know them.  There's no chance at all that model railroading will disappear from the ranks of satisfying leisure pursuits, especially because it is and will remain the most creative of all hobby pursuits, and because of its strong connection to our national history and heritage.

 

Put those concerns aside, Ron W., and just have fun with what many of us have long regarded as the world's greatest hobby.

 

Ron:

 

Welcome to the Forum. I lived in the Chicago area for a number of years and there is a terrific group of O-Gauge guys that are very active in our hobby who are your neighbors. I would suggest that you pay close attention to the threads about the DuPage Show. Several members of this group go to breakfast before this show at the Verdict Restaurant. This would be an excellent way to get to know some of your fellow O-Gauge enthusiasts in a very informal setting.

Changes are inevitable –

I’m starting to see (inventory price reduction) listed at several dealers lately.

Those over priced high end items don’t seem to be selling.

I’m also noticing a lack of forum participtation / interest with new item anouncements.

 

The future of this hobby will always be around for small children.

As for the more serious modelers and higher end consumption side, it will probably only last as long as us old kids do.

 

Well I am 42, and I work at my friends train store here in NY about once a week. We have a ton of young families as customers and regulars at that. During the week its young moms and on the weekend its the Dad and/or Grandparent. Many of our "diehards" are mid-30's to mid-40's. We also have some VERY famous customers in that age group as well.. All great guys who like trains. And say what you think but Thomas the Trains does nothing but help this hobby.

I am curious do any of you folks predicting the sky is falling, look at this globally or from an American standpoint? I believe the hobby will evolve and stand the test of time as it has done for the last one hundred plus years and be still synonymous with Christmas and those seeking to create a world in miniature thru the world of RR's, its the gray area in between that we can't see at this time. Will there be less maybe and maybe that is because the family unit is shrinking, the dollar is getting stretched more than ever, our USA population is shifting from an aging European population to an Asian, Hispanic...population have they discovered are little RR worlds and the joy they give and the play value they provide. Food for thought.

How did I miss that?  You can add my name to the list (age: 25)!  Trains have never been debunked as my primary interest, and I have intentionally tried to defend it.

 

As for the hobby's future, I'm more concerned about breaking stereotypes.  Trains, especially historic prototypes and models, seem to be viewed by the general public or portrayed by the media as if they were originally invented for small children.  While kids most definitely should be involved, if they retain their interest as they grow up, it becomes harder to find railroad-related events and products that are age appropriate.  (That's where those of us in the hobby come in!)  I don't know, I'm probably just speaking from my own experience here in Central Texas.  I'm sure it's different in other parts of the country where railroads played a much more significant role, like Pennsylvania or Wyoming.

 

However, I think the state/future of this hobby is but a part of something bigger.  Any interest in science, history, or technology (I mean the "nuts and bolts"stuff, not just simply owning the latest device) tends to be suppressed or neglected by popular society.  I sometimes wonder how many potential hobbyists have been pressured in one way or another to not consider railroading as a hobby.  To put things into perspective, I visited two museums within the past few months, one military and one natural science, and it seemed like most of the visitors there weren't interested at all in the educational aspects of the institutions, nor did they show much respect for the exhibits (namely lots of reaching past the barriers and "Do Not Touch" signs) or other visitors.  In fact, the scene didn't look to different from a school playground.

 

The teenager/young adult crowd, I would say, is probably one of the hardest demographics for railroading.  I know I've mentioned it a several times, but this is where the steampunk genre could be used to great advantage.

 

Aaron

Thanks to everyone for their thoughtful replies. I have been thinking this "to myself" since I started "playing" with my trains again (about 2 years ago).

 

I honestly wondered if others think some of new items are "overpriced" too.

 

Will do on the Dupage guys too. This winter, I most probably will add some "space" to my layout just so I could finally run my beloved Weaver "Little Joe" & Hiawatha!

 

Cheers,

 

Ron W.

www.beyondpearlharbor.com

I have a 5 year-old son who loves to draw, loves sports, loves anything 'high-tech' - especially playing Minecraft on the iPad or playing something on his Wii. Once he gets bored, especially after 5 minutes of playing a video game - I get the 'daddy - can we run the trains'. When that happens we both get lost in our little world for hours running the trains and playing with the accessories. 

 

I don't think we have anything to worry about as far as this hobby disappearing. A lot of hobbies and interests are in a state of contraction right now due to the loss of disposable income, time available to participate and possibly availability of product re shops and stores carrying product.

 

I think cyclicly there are expansions and contractions in any interest. My other hobby is collection high-end model die-cast fire apparatus. Since 2009, three manufacturers have discontinued lines: Code 3, Corgi and just recently THW. Part of it has to do with manufacturing product, the other is falling interest and other factors, such as income available to purchase. These little fire trucks also suffer the same 'blowout' pricing as our trains.

If I'm figuring correctly, I was 36 when I got back into the hobby (and that was way before the product surge in O gauge).  Didn't regret it then, and don't regret it now.  Didn't worry about where the hobby was going then, and I don't worry about it now.

 

Trains were about the last thing I thought about during my late teen and early adulthood years, but that sure didn't diminish any latent interest that eventually resurfaced...a fact that would be obvious to anyone who knows me and who knows what I have been involved with professionally as well as personally over most of my years since the late 1980s.

New things will, like everything, be very expensive, but I have a hunch that when us old fogies go to that roundhouse in the sky many of our grandkids will take our trains to Goodwill....stop by the church stores too...you'll have a field day! 

 

This afternoon I was cleaning cars and engines that I bought from a friend who got them from a train lover's widow. I was thinking about the quality of the 681 and 736 engines as well as the cars, the ZW and KW...and though new things will be more high tech, I don't think they will ever conjure up the sentiment we feel when we play with the old timers.

 

Bakelite and metal trump plastic.

 

That's just me.

 

 

don't forget the niche of this hobby who could care less if all new production went out of business tomorrow.  with nothing more than what exists today, people could be running trains for the next 100 years and not be hurting for equipment.

 

through the 60's the single yearly Lionel catalog averaged between 45 and 60 pages of which a good 1/3 of those were more instructional than product listings.  today there are multiple 100+ page catalogs every year.  in the 50's there were nowhere near the number of basements and closets full of trains as there are today.

I've really enjoyed reading the responses. Good point by Coloradohiraile. We did have more to do than I remembered. I made model planes and ships too. I wasn't very good at them then and the lack of skill still shows in my modeling. I'm still finding pieces of Tinker toys, Erector Sets, Lincoln Logs under my train table. Also a good point about not needeing a lot of new product for most of us to enjoy trains for a long time. Proto 2 technology seems fine with me.

 

I'm not going to worry about the future. I am enjoying the hobby in present time with my train friends. There is plenty of technology and product to keep me happy.

 

Ed

I assume many of us have reached, or are approaching, our "saturation point" as far as equipment is concerned, and thus are becoming far more selective in terms of what we purchase.  There will always be exceptions to that premise, of course, because some folks with deep pockets and no truly focused interests in the hobby (road name, era, or whatever) will buy just about anything that comes their way.

 

Forum participation, if it's down at all, would likely be attributed as much to the season of the year as anything else.  This same "summer effect" has been around for as long as Internet discussion groups have existed, dating way back to the AOL Train Board days when we would see the same comment posted during the "off season."

Haven't we covered this a number of times??? Seems like it comes up at the start of every summer. Worry about the things you can change.

Also 38, and with a familiar story--left the hobby at around 15 to pursue cars, music, and the fairer sex, returned a few years ago after school, career, marriage, family.

There will always be those who love trains; for me, an hour spent reading the history of a heritage railroad is an hour well-spent.  My 4yo can tell you the names of all the pre-CSX lines and enjoys hearing me talk about them. Others in this thread have alluded to the many "whys"--appreciation for the equipment, its connection to the growth and development of America, etc... there are so many things about rail to enjoy.

What I see as impossibly difficult for manufacturers to manage is meeting the diversity of preferences extant within the hobby.  For example, when I look at a Lionel catalog, 90% of what's in there I wouldn't want if it were being given away for free. Road name, features, locomotive model, and price all have to align before anything makes it to the "must have" list--and what's critical to me is entirely different than what's important to the next guy. 

The world's greatest hobby? Absolutely--but there's little common ground to be found in defining essential "must have" criteria--which creates a very real business challenge for Lionel/MTH/etc...

The future of our hobby? I predict that by 2053, all model railroads will be controlled by remote control, and the rails will be unpowered. Soon after, flying model trains will appear, and a great hobby war will erupt with the R/C airplane nuts. In the end, only 3 or 4 model railroaders will survive. It's coming, just you wait.

I am encouraged by recent developments in O scale.  Granted that we do not have access to sales figures to fully understand the impact.

 

Lionel is exposing more folks to the hobby - building the base:

1)  Lionel's inexpensive remote control sets with sound - after discounting off MSRP, these sets are within reach of many families.  The remote adds play value for kids.

2)  Lionel's Little Lines with sound and IR remote.  Both affordable and appropriate for the younger kids.

3)  Lionel's Inexpensive G sets with RC remote and sounds.  The holiday catalog has the P.E. set for $149 MSRP.  Not bad at all!

 

4)  For older kids and us adults in O-gauge:  a wide range of sets and equipment at different price points, with outstanding control and sound systems.   Lots of choices and options to keep us interested and having fun.  More features planned.  [I hope that Lionel returns more steam/smoke features to their lineup.]

5)  As previously mentioned, the ability to computer print components may help bring down the prices eventually (years in the future) of plastic components, accessories, detail parts. 

6)  If the economy can ever start cooking again, a rise in incomes and employment will help the hobby along with everything else.

 

Overall, I think the O-gauge hobby will survive well for years, and perhaps begin growing a bit if we can get out of the "Great Recession", even though competition with other hobbies is stronger than ever.

 

Just a thought, I wonder if the computer plastic-printing can help with tooling costs in some way?  Perhaps in creating a negative to make a mold to make the tooling, which is then used to make the parts.  Just wondering - not my area of expertise.   If so, that could really  make a difference in pricing of new product and the production cycle time, which would really help our hobby grow.

 

I think that if a person does not experience and enjoy toy trains as a child, they will not take it up as hobby later in life.  Therefore the future of this hobby is determined almost entirely by how many people enjoy it while kids.

If S Scale could survive out in the wilderness all these decades, O Gauge has nothing to worry about.

 

Rusty

 

 

I agree that the Steampunk genre would be a great way to get more people into the hobby. I know Strasburg is having a Steampunk day, and hopefully that will help.

I hope to leave all my train stuff to my grandson.  That said, I am sure he will try to run one of my TMCC engines some day and it will no longer work.  Will he be able to get it fixed?  Will parts be available?  I'm thinking twenty years or more out in the future.  I would think that post-war collectors would be rare and only the top of the line stuff would still be selling, if at all.  There will be a ton of non-working electronics equipped trains sitting on shelves and folks trying to sell them on eBay.  We may have a huge 'used train' market which, I think, would cause the manufacturers to not produce as much new product - or - perhaps there will be a large 'new' market since these trains will be working and will have repair service and parts available.  It might be a great opportunity for someone who can fix the engines we currently have or could stick 'new guts' in a busted engine.  Train company mergers might take place.  I'm sure it will be interesting - hope I can stay around awhile to see how it turns out.

Michael R. - A Steampunk connection is a great idea!  My wife and I recently caught an off-Broadway production of "Around the World in 80 days" in NYC, and the set was influenced by steampunk with the rail and steamboat links in the journey.  (Was a very good show, by the way).   Perhaps a jazzed-up steampunk train set would catch the eye of younger adults?  Decorate a steam set with brass colors and etc.  I suppose one of the 0-8-0s could work, perhaps even the 2-4-2, to target the lower end.  Perhaps the baby-berk?  Lionel could decorate the RC remote in steampunk.  Well, I would buy one anyway, but it would be a gamble on how many others would.

Lionel's already got a head start with their Phantom-series trains.  And the locomotive on the front of their DVD would be perfect, even though the film itself looks like it would be cheesy.

 

I have also thought the styling of the Legacy system and FasTrack swith controls already have a steampunk look to them.