Train Values

Good question.  Always worth checking completed sales on eBay or other auction sites.  You're better off doing your own research, and it's more fun and cheaper that way to boot.   

BTW, I think the Greenberg books have lost a LOT of traction in the operator culture we now find ourselves.  They might have been a big hit back during the 1980's collector frenzy.  But I think we've all come a long way... and now realize all that stuff was just manufactured, moment-in-time hype with little or no basis in reality.  

David

The value of toy trains comes from the joy you feel when collecting, operating, or displaying them. As far as value?. Well lets just say  " don't ever doubt the thinking power of men, but never sell your stock in IBM " Market value rules the day.

Modern trains don't maintain a constant value the way postwar and even MPC Lionel did.  By the time a guide such as the Greenburg guide were published, it would be obsolete.

Other than completed eBay auctions how would you suggest arriving at a fair price for trains then?

Completed auction prices are the best.  Ask what is fair and what you feel comfortable with.  Most O gaugers are operating their trains today and not collecting or purchasing for value.  You won't find anything in a book or in writing with any accuracy on MTh or any other O gauge train. 

Steve, Lady and Tex

Capture a few years of sales data from dealers and train shows....calculate differences for condition and age....compile all this in a data base....refine your results.

That's why I use 'completed sales' on ebay....today's real time market value.

At one time Greenberg did do an MTH guide/checklist. I have a copy, but it is at least 10 years out of date. I don't know if they ever did another one. I agree with those who say check eBay, as that may be one reason why price guides have pretty much gone out the window.

Selling new trains will result in a big loss of money. This is because whoever wanted them in the first place already purchased them. Whatever is resold doesn't see the same demand. I'd say modern used trains are worth about 25%-50% of the new value and with the rapidly changing demographics of the train buyer, we are heading toward a period where trains will soon be worth next to nothing.

Are you asking for insurance purposes?  I am going to assume so.  If not, then perhaps it will apply to someone else who finds this thread 16 years from now when they have the same question.

I insure my items through J.A. Bash & Co in Pittsburgh.  They have a 'deal' through TCA.  Essentially you can cover about $13,000 for $100 + a few fees per year.  If you want to insure more than that they require a scheduled listing.

Originally I had my scheduled based on MSRP or high value using what other above has stated as means they use for values.  I have decided, right or wrong, that this stuff ain't worth much, I never paid MSRP, it's a PITA to keep a detailed listing, so when my policy renews I am going to the standard coverage (max amount) I get for $100.  I will update my list and provide to insurance company, but I am not going to spend time finding values.

Having said that, and not exactly answered your question about sources of value, I would defer to those above on the common methods.  Trains are like gas prices.  If before Christmas, they are worth a lot.  If the middle of August, they are worth little.  I have gotten some good deals in August!  Essentially toy trains are commoditized due to e-bay and internet sellers.  Only the most rare are valuable and collectible.  The rest are just sentimental.

Modern trains are worth much more than post war to operators.  Those old trains were great in the day.  Most of the post war guys have what they have been chasing.  I know many who were big in the old trains that are now Legacy people.  They tend to go Legacy over DCS because of loyalty to the Lionel name.  

Buy what you want.  Anyone who buys new trains with the intent of making money are not thinking clearly.  In the New England, New York and Jersey areas postwar can be had cheaper than other parts of the country.  Operator V collector will always be two different camps.  I am an operator and do see lots of good postwar come my way.  I have a guy who takes the good with the bad. 

Post auction 'realized prices' are the best way to go.

Look at Stout and any other auction house that uses online bidding, many provide the catalog with the final prices.

Selling new trains will result in a big loss of money. This is because whoever wanted them in the first place already purchased them. Whatever is resold doesn't see the same demand. I'd say modern used trains are worth about 25%-50% of the new value and with the rapidly changing demographics of the train buyer, we are heading toward a period where trains will soon be worth next to nothing.

Dennis

That is awfully pessimistic, but it might be true for some items, even some categories of items.

On the other hand, there are some items that are doing betteron the secondary market.  They tend to be the ones that have overlapping interest from collectors and operators.  Well detailed scale items tend to do well, especially if they are in a road name that has a smaller but dedicated following.  Cars with attractive decoration tend to do well too.  

Montana Rail Link items have never been made in huge numbers (Like Pennsy, UP, ATSF, etc.) but there are dedicated fans out there among collectors and scale operators.  And everyone likes the blue paint scheme. Resale values tend to start at original discounted retail prices and go up from there.  The first MTH freight car I ever saw sell for over $100 on the bay was one of the production samples of this ACF covered hopper.

The highest selling price of any MTH freight car that I am aware of was for a MTH production sample of the 20-97134 PS-2CD hopper.  It seems the rarity and the nice paint scheme lead to more buyers than sellers for this car.

Willsdad,

You're getting answers to questions you did not ask. Yes, there are books that cover just, MTH. Honestly, I can't remember if one of the publications covers value or not. Your best bet would be to contact the, OGR Business Office. As a matter of fact, two books were published recently. The office staff will point you in the right direction.

A word of CAUTION here. MTH trains are all modern pieces, none are vintage. Granted some might be difficult to find, however, not one can be classified as,"rare" or "scarce". One more thing. Books stating train values are deceptive at best. (The selling or listed prices on eBay are a true farce.IMHO)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

(The selling or listed prices on eBay are a true farce.IMHO)   

How can the actual selling price be considered a farce.

I wouldn't call the listed and selling prices a "farce," however there are two significant factors in play. The first is the listing price; lots of items are listed at the maximum "I want this much or I'm not selling!" point. The second factor is the impact of watching two or more go at it with the "you aren't gonna outbid me!" attitude. Both scenarios can severely impact the "normal" market value of any item, not just trains.

So, IMHO you must perform due diligence extrapolating a true cash value from auction sales. Of course, at the other end, you may see pieces go for a few dollars because only one buyer was interested. That's not so frequent today because of the "minimum bid" capabilities for the seller. 

Neil      

The first thing I did, OK the second, when I started this hobby was to buy a value guide. It was the first thing I discarded......

Thanks for this.  I'm looking for this information bc I'm new to the hobby and a friend is selling his dad's entire collection and none of us know what a fair price would be for the individual trains.  We're also not entirely sure how to figure out exactly which trains he has.  Is there a telltale sign or something you can see from the outside that a locomotive has Legacy or TMCC?  Thanks again for your help!

" Is there a telltale sign or something you can see from the outside that a locomotive has Legacy or TMCC?"

If you have the instructions, that would say.  If no instructions, look on the underside of any Lionel, Atlas, K-Line, Weaver or 3rd Rail loco, usually near the front of the loco,  for a black, two position slide switch that is labelled "Run--Prog."  This indicates the loco has command control (either TMCC or Legacy).  MTH locos do not have these switches, nor do locos without command control.

Right now, as mentioned, Ebay is the way to check current values.

But also Ebay train prices will differ depending on the time of year!

Prices are always higher during the winter especially around Christmas and then start dropping in March.

Yea around tax season on ebay some people pay stupid money for modern lionel stuff. This is no stab at mth but lionel seems to hold its value better .  

When I worked in a hobby shop people brought in 1980's era Lionel starter sets stuff wanting to sell it for $100's.......because it's Lionel it has to be worth something. These same people would call a MTH product sitting on a shelf 'is that Lionel?'. To an extent that is still around today......in a shop or ebay.

With modern train items it seems like you would be lucky to get half of what you payed for.   Strangely enough less popular roadname items that have low production numbers seem to hold there values. I was looking on Ebay at FEC items and I could not believe that a Premier FEC SD70M-2 was still worth around $400. It seems like most postwar items have gone down in value since the last time I checked.

If you want to know the "True Value" of your train(s) put them up for sale on ebay.  After all the only REAL value is what somebody else is willing to pay for them.  What is written in Greenberg is indeed obsolete and IMHO just an educated guess.

It is just like selling your house... the real value is what the the next guy will pay for it.  Your "asking" price is just that.

If you want to know how much an MTH Western Maryland SD40-2 with Proto-Sound 3.0 is worth check out my auction which just ended:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/281298...id=p3984.m1561.l2649

I'll clear about $283 after seller's fees.

While part of this is true, it still helps to have a ballpark starting point. You wouldn't list your house for a low price and then expect a bidding war, although it has been known to happen.The more common practice is to start high and then come down. This holds true with trains as well, except when offered in an auction format.

Greenberg still has some value as a guide, but their glory days are past. Every once in while I find myself reaching for mine.

I do not feel we 'BASH' printed price guides here as a group. The thing is unless the books are updated twice a year minimum they quickly become out dated.  We had price guides in the plastic model hobby for years. In the 1970's and 1980's they were a great help.....but now they are not published any longer due to the fact they become obsolete soon after they are printed. Just a fact of modern life. Guides are now good for details about an item...but not pricing.

AMCDave has it right.  Those price guides are no more accurate than price guides for old used cars. I'm lad we have them as a guide but they can go quickly out of date and I depend mostly on instinct and the old "what am I willing to pay for this particularly loco?".  

My feeling on value is that there is no authority on what they are worth, period:reenberg just reports market data, rally.  So, they are worth what I pay for them, at least to me (I'd be pretty stupid if they weren't) but that once I have them they are worth zero in re-sale - a moot point since I don't resell.