What is your take on the used train market?

CincinnatiWestern posted:

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

Dennis LaGrua posted:

As for the new faces in the hobby. The hobby is too expensive for young people to consider.  Years ago the corporate world hungered for college and young talent. Opportunity to make a solid living was was everywhere. Today college grads are lucky to work in Starbucks as a barista.

I graduated from college in 1981.  I can recall HUNDREDS of companies coming on campus to interview seniors who would be graduating.  Some companies (like AT&T Bell Labs) would even offer to hire you and send you to Graduate School "full time" (at any institution) for a Masters Degree the year following graduation.  As I think back to those days, I probably had well over a dozen job offers in hand -- some local, some across the country.  And that's just from the companies I chose to explore more seriously after the first on-campus interview.    Had I visited more companies for a follow-up interview, I probably could have had another dozen or so job offers!  

Those of us graduating at the time could have written our own ticket (and many did) -- settling ANYWHERE in the country to work and live.  It was a VERY different time than what faces college grads of today.

David

I have to disagree, ...

in the late 1990's when I graduated college anyone with a degree in anything technology related landed  great jobs straight out of school. Jobs which paid more than most of their professional parents made at the time, to say that a early 20 something making 100k+ a year cannot afford any hobby they want is a bit off. most of my friends who took those jobs are millionaires today.

...

Can't argue with that.  How can we forget the generation of graduates that gave us the likes of Marissa Meyer, where a million dollars is tossed around like a rounding error? 

After Yahoo balked at Microsoft's $44 BILLION buy-out offer in 2008/2009, Meyer took over as CEO a year or two later.  Fast-forward to 2017, where Verizon is now buying Yahoo for ONE TENTH that amount, at $4.1 Billion give or take a few million.  Through it all Meyer STILL may receive a golden parachute worth more than $23 Million... uh you guessed it, give or take a couple of million.  Yes there goes those million dollar rounding errors again.   

Not bad for a young Google executive who had no business whatsoever stepping into a CEO position at Yahoo.  Despite her tendency for overspending and poor executive performance, Meyer still walks away with a ridiculous net worth and a multi-million dollar severance package, while the company's asset value declined nearly 90% during her tenure as CEO.  

I guess I missed those college classes that taught that kind of creative math and business acumen.    In my day it was just called smoke-and-mirrors... plain and simple.  In my parent's generation, I think the term was "selling snake oil".

All of this notwithstanding, I still agree with Dennis' representation that today's college grads are lucky if they find themselves working at Starbucks.  That's not to say there isn't a crop of successful graduates today -- but it's not the critical mass that existed back when I graduated in 1981.  Oh... and let's not forget that the most I paid for college tuition (at a well-known private university) was less than $7,500 in my senior year -- much less in earlier years.  Today's parents are probably footing a bill close to TEN times that number, so hopefully a successful graduate of today better darn well become a millionaire pretty quickly to pay off that debt. 

Either way... model trains don't seem to be too high on their priority list. 

David 

I attend the Southern Ct Model Train Show on Sunday with my youngest son this past Sunday. I have attend this show as attendee a few times and as a vendor twice. The show was not crowded and there were deals trying to be made. Not may young folks at making purchase at all. Most of the item for sales where  HO,  PW Lionel and the mixed bag of trains stuff (pictures/paintings and stuff). I did pick up a Lionel 1033 for $5.00 from my favorite vendor. I can never remember his name but he has the American Fly layout at this show and the Westchester county show. Never, ever had a problem with transformer purchased from him and I always ask him what he has in stock. Spoke to some of the vendors at the show and they all had inventory that just does not move. One gentlemen offer a deal of a life time on two ho sets but I had to pass I told since I model in O scale only. That my quick snap shot of what I saw at this train show. I am looking forward to the Kingston Show this coming weekend on Sunday.

I've only bought a few used trains.  The first was a complete O-27 set with the 2020 turbine locomotive, pressed steel caboose, box car, gondola and a Sunoco tank car from 1946.  It has all of the original track, transformer and a 1947 vintage operating milk car.  Bought it for $400 at a flea market.  I haven't bought any trains for an investment, I buy them because I like them and run them until they quit, then repair and repeat.

Well, I'm new to this so my response may be somewhat different than most peoples here.  Some things I've noticed in the 4 months I've been at this hobby:

• The younger or "newer" generation of O gaugers aren't into O-27 or traditional scale like most guys in this hobby (generally speaking of course).  Why buy tiny O scale stuff?  If you want small stuff, why not just go HO?
• The market is definately flooded with PW, MPC and early 90's 0-27 stock.  There's just way too much of it out there.  I've seen auction sites selling boxes of 10 pieces of rolling stock (all PW or MPC) for $10. Let's face guys, this stuff looks toy-ish, doesn't run very well and is mostly made of plastic.....
• This hobby (O gauge in particular) has done a **** poor job of bringing in new blood.  I go to swaps and shows and see 90% to 95% of the people there are baby boomers.  Conversely, I've been to HO shows and they are closer to a 50% to 50% mix of boomers vs. younger folks.  Lionel will cease to exist in 20 years if they don't change.  MTH and Atlas will be ok as they are slowly pushing into HO.  Good for them. 

So those are just some observations I've made.  Now I have some questions for you O scale gurus.

• All toys essentially have almost no resale value after a year or two.  You can call it "garage sale value" for arguments sake.  With that in mind, how in the &^%$ do you think you can sell a 1991 or 1992 piece of rolling stock that's made of plastic, not even full scale and manufactured in China by the thousands for $20?  I mean, that's probably the retail price of it when it was new.  I don't get it.  But when I go to these shows, that's all I see.  Row after row of MPC or PW stock all for $15 or $20.  Unreal man, unreal. 
• Why do people somehow feel this forum is a "safe haven" for transactions?  It's definately not.  You have no recourse.  Ebay is by far the safest venue.  They go to extremes to guarantee a good  purchasing experience. That's not my opinion, that's a fact.  Don't take my word for it, read their policies.  I might be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure this forum doesn't even have a policy for questionable or misrepresentations that may take place here (if it exists, please let me know as I'd like to see it).  You could say, this is the most dangerous place to buy/swap/sell.  That's a new guys opinion though, and only that.
• Is this hobby even trying to market to any other age group or demographic?  I have seen zero effort to do so.  Just curious.  I'd like more Gen X'ers like myself to get into the hobby so maybe the prices on newer stock can come down a bit?  I know, I'm stretching on that one.
• If Lionel supposedly charges ridiculous prices (all I ever see is people complaining about them here) then why do people keep buying it?  It's not like their product is any better than MTH loco's or Atlas rolling stock. 
• Additionally, why is Lionel many times portrayed as the "golden child" or "golden standard"?  I don't get it (especially when discussing used prices).  I could see them being the "golden child" back in the 50's.  But after that, it became a crap company.  Actually it wasn't even really a company in the MPC era.  It was a division of another company.  They literally made the same crap from the 1960's up until the early 90's.  And it was crap. As a matter of fact, it went from really good (PW stuff rocked) to crap, then from there, it went to being even crappier and then devolved into the absolute crappiest in the 90's.  Matter of fact, it was so crappy that some guy named Mike Wolfe came in and wrecked them.  His product ran circles around them (come on, that was funny), so much that Lionel stole all of his designs.   But, somehow, they were allowed to continue on......  But hey, their new stuff is pretty good though.  I mean, it should be because for 5 years they had no R&D costs because, well they were just stealing the tech from MTH.

Thanks for reading, I'm bored and it's Sunday night.   But my biggest question is this: is the O scale hobby doomed in the next 20 years?  There's no concerted effort to bring any new blood to the hobby.  This will only drive new loco and rolling stock prices up and up, which of course limits the amount of people that want to get into it.  If it is doomed, please let me know so I can get out while I can and sell my stock while there's some semblance of a market to sell it in.

Just my 2 cents.

Trainguymcgee, there is no doubt that you are new to this, Many of us will disagree with you on so many levels, that I don't know where to begin. As far as Atlas is NOT "Slowly Pushing into HO" Atlas has been in HO in a BIG way for DECADES, HO & N are Atlas's biggest markets, way larger than "O" can Hope to be. Atlas no doubt makes money in the "O" market, but it is NOT their largest market.

Doug

TrainGuyMcGee posted:

Well, I'm new to this so my response may be somewhat different than most peoples here.  Some things I've noticed in the 4 months I've been at this hobby:

.........................

Just my 2 cents.

That's a lot of very strong (not right or wrong, but strong convictions) opinions for only being in the hobby for four months.

Your "rolling eyes" emoticon for things being made of plastic, I hate to tell you is true for 90% of the new product too (with the exception of steam engines, which are nearly all die cast), so in your eyes it must all be crap too, I guess?  Die cast or other metal construction for non-steam engines or rolling stock is the exception, not the rule here.

A lot of people consider $15-20 a fair price for a piece of rolling stock if it's in nice condition, I believe your expectations there are out of line, even if it is something from 25 years ago.  (If it's beat up or heavily used then of course it's worth less)  If you don't like anything PW, MPC, LTI, or other more recent flavors of Lionel up to the present, you are just not interested.  That's different than it all being "crap".  Believe it or not, there are actually people who like O-27 sized equipment due to nostalgia, it's ability to negotiate smaller layouts, or other reasons.

Which auctions actually sold a whole box of rolling stock for $10?  Links (or numbers so we can look them up ourselves since a link may cause this thread to be deleted).  I'm calling BS on that one.  There is a well known auction house that does a combination of live and "eBay live" auctions, and a lot of those lots were recently (around a week ago) listed as starting at $10, but very few if any actually sold for $10, they were just started as true auctions since the purpose was to move the product.  The market decided most lots went for more than the starting bid. 

I am also a gen-x'er with the difference being I've been in the hobby since I was a young adult, so around 20 years now.  Some of your observations are valid, but many IMO are not.  I was one of the youngest people in the hobby when I started, and I'm probably still in the youngest 20-25% of the hobby.  Your comment about Lionel being out of business in the next 20 years will have nothing to do with the perceived problems you are citing.  They are generally making what people are voting for with their wallets.  The QC issues with remote manufacturing may eventually have significant impact, but for some reason a lot of O Gauge customers are very forgiving in that regard (shipping back to importer for repairs right out of the box, etc - but that is not exclusively a Lionel problem by any means).

Is this hobby even trying to market to any other age group or demographic?  I have seen zero effort to do so.  Just curious.

That is a good question. What are any of the manufacturers doing to market their products to new folks? Knocking together a cheap, low quality set for Walmarts doesn't cut it.

" I mean, it should be because for 5 years they had no R&D costs because, well they were just stealing the tech from MTH."

Total nonsense.  Your sources of information are utterly unreliable on the subject of the lawsuit and the competition between MTH and Lionel during the 1990s and early 2000s.  One fact that might give you pause:  Lionel introduced command control about 6 years before MTH. 

challenger3980 posted:

Trainguymcgee, there is no doubt that you are new to this, Many of us will disagree with you on so many levels, that I don't know where to begin. ... 

Amen to that!!!

What a way to start out reading the forum this week early on Monday morning.  There are so many glaring inaccuracies in TrainguyMcGee's post, it's scary.  And I just don't have the energy to disect the post right now to set the poor fellow straight.  

Best advice I have is for him to take a deep breath, and proceed slowly.  There's nothing wrong with expressing opinions.  But having them grounded in more accurate facts will help his cause in the long run.    It's only 7AM EST on Monday, but I think that post already takes this week's prize for having the most number of inaccuracies per square inch of forum real estate!  

David

I'm also very new to the hobby. (On October 7, 2016 my 11-year-old inadvertently started an earthquake by saying the words "I like trains. Can we get a model train?" The evil gleam in semi-retired Dad's eyes has been burning ever brighter since that fateful day. We couldn't afford a train set when I was a kid so Boy Howdy I'm making up for lost time).

I've been reading this thread and also the ongoing "What to expect from the Spring York Meet" thread with much interest. Since another new guy just took heat here for possibly uninformed opinions I figured why not throw a few more out there.

The question of what stuff is worth at the resale level is interesting to me. "It's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it" is the gold standard. But believe me the whole "value" question is daunting for the newcomer.

Why should that be, you ask? So a hypothetical newbie like me goes to York for the first time, because he thinks buying pre-owned is the best way to get started/build up his new railroad. He sees miles of aisles containing lots of shiny things. Many look very similar to one another (but we know better). Collectors push past some stuff and then haggle on choice items that differ only to the knowledgable eye. Our prototypical newbie might overpay on some stuff, or insult a veteran seller by asking for a discount on an already low price. Again, why is this situation so challenging for a newcomer?

Some fun with numbers, featuring lots of assumptions stacked one on the other. My hope is that unless there are huge inaccuracies readers not sniper each idea but try to see the overall point, if you agree there is one.

 My 2017 Greenburg's Lionel price list has conservatively 16,000 separate items cataloged. Let's assume that Lionel represents 70% of the entire market of available train-related items. That leads me to assume we have a massive bucket of potential pre-owned inventory containing 22,000 unique items (pre-war, post-war, Modern, accessories, everything) conceivably for sale.

Let's further assume that at a huge show like York as much as 20% of that huge bucket of stuff is represented as being for sale. That's 4,400 individual items.

Let's then assume that the really savvy York visitor has a good idea of several different values for each one: Price of pre-owned Mint/excellent in box, Price of Very good, Price of Used/beat/for parts, Original list price, Train Show price back in the 80's when everything was nice, cost to repair, etc.

You're probably way ahead of me on where we're going on all this, but when these numbers are combined you could say the smart buyer at York should have 12,000 to 18,000 price values in his/her head to buy smart and not step on too many seller's toes. Another point that comes to mind is amazement that most of the folks on this forum carry all that knowledge around in their heads without even thinking about it.

But that makes it tough sometimes for newcomers. Which in turn reinforces a buyer's market and dependence on online buying, since this depth of experience and knowledge is concentrated in a niche of folks that (if not now shrinking) is barely holding its own, let along growing.

What do I conclude from these excellent forum threads and my perhaps confused perceptions? Not much. Mostly that this is a hobby, not an investment. Buy to enjoy and plan to use up whatever you buy without a huge regard for getting the money back at the end. Have as much fun as possible, meet great people, and most of all don't sweat the small stuff (and it's all small stuff).

Chris

JUST SOME THING TO ADD TO THIS AS A RETAILER, WE SEE CUSTOMERS, CUSTOMER WHO ARE AS YOU SAY, BABY BOOMERS, ABOVE THE 60 MARK,  AT THIS  STAGE THEY HAVE A LOT AND I SAY A LOT OF ITEMS, SO MUCH, WERE CAN YOU PLACE IT AND ALSO WHAT IS ON THE MARKET SAME OLD. SAME OLD ROAD NAMES AND  ITEMS. WHAT IS NEEDED IS, YES NEW FACES'S AND NEW OR REPEAT OF SOME OF THE OLDER ROAD NAMES AND ITEMS, WOODLAND HAS STEPUP WITH THERE NEW BUILDINGS, MENARDS WITH THE LOWER PRICING BUT SOME QUIALTY. PROBLEMS, NOW WYFI AND NEXT BLUE TOOTH. THIS GREAT , BUT THE BABY  BOOMER HAS A PROBLEM  WITH SOME OF THESE NEW IDEA'S. MOST ARE WILLING TO LEARN. THE HOBBY NEEDS THE YOUNG FACE TO GET INTO THIS HOBBY, WE HAVE 2 LAYOUTS THAT GO TO SHOWS FOR THE KIDS, ONE WITH LIONEL REMOTES AND 1 WITH THE MTH WYFI FOR THE YOUNG GROUP, IS IT WORKING, YES AND NO, KIDS WENT IT, WE OFFER A DISCOUNTED PRICING FOR ANY KID THAT RUNS THE SYSTEM ON A STARTER SET, IT WORKS, SOME TIME'S, BUT THE PARENT'S DO NOT SEEMS TO FOLLOW THRU WITH THE PURCHASE. HAVE ANY OF THE MFG COME TO HELP,  LNL HAS NOT NOR HAS MTH. HAVE ANY OF THE MFG COME UP WITH NEW ITEMS, ROAD NAMES, NOT THAT WE HAVE SEEN. MTH HAS NOT HAD A NEW RTR SET FOR A LONG TIME, LNL EACH YEAR HAS NEW RTR ITEMS , YES THEY ARE NOT THE BEST, BUT THEY ARE NEW AND PRICE RIGHT TO GET THEM INTO THE HOBBY, GET STARTED AND BUILD. WE HAVE LOST'S ABOUT 10 TO 12 HOBBIES A YEAR TO PASSING IN OUR AREA, THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR THE HOBBY, WE DO NOT SEE THAT MANY REPLACING THIS LOST.  I AGREE WITH MOST OF THE COMMENTS THE MFG MUST STEP UP.  WITH NEW ROAD NAMES AND PRODUCT BUILD IN USA. JUST A SUGGESTION, MAYBE THE THE CLUBS WOULD LOOK INTO GETTING NEW AND YOUNGER MEMBERS , PLUS WORKING TO HAVE HANDS ON LAYOUTS FOR THE YOUNGER PEOPLE TO WORK WITH, LIKE,  DRIVE IT, BY IT. MAYBE WE CAN GET THE HOBBY BACK TO A GOOD FUTURE. SORRY FOR THE LONG TALK BUT SOMETHING MUST CHANGE. THE LOCAL SHOP IS ALWAY THERE TO HELP.

RONK,

Stop yelling, my ears hurt.

TrainGuyMcGee posted:

Well, I'm new to this so my response may be somewhat different than most peoples here.  Some things I've noticed in the 4 months I've been at this hobby:

• The younger or "newer" generation of O gaugers aren't into O-27 or traditional scale like most guys in this hobby (generally speaking of course).  Why buy tiny O scale stuff?  If you want small stuff, why not just go HO?
• The market is definately flooded with PW, MPC and early 90's 0-27 stock.  There's just way too much of it out there.  I've seen auction sites selling boxes of 10 pieces of rolling stock (all PW or MPC) for $10. Let's face guys, this stuff looks toy-ish, doesn't run very well and is mostly made of plastic.....
• This hobby (O gauge in particular) has done a **** poor job of bringing in new blood.  I go to swaps and shows and see 90% to 95% of the people there are baby boomers.  Conversely, I've been to HO shows and they are closer to a 50% to 50% mix of boomers vs. younger folks.  Lionel will cease to exist in 20 years if they don't change.  MTH and Atlas will be ok as they are slowly pushing into HO.  Good for them. 

So those are just some observations I've made.  Now I have some questions for you O scale gurus.

• All toys essentially have almost no resale value after a year or two.  You can call it "garage sale value" for arguments sake.  With that in mind, how in the &^%$ do you think you can sell a 1991 or 1992 piece of rolling stock that's made of plastic, not even full scale and manufactured in China by the thousands for $20?  I mean, that's probably the retail price of it when it was new.  I don't get it.  But when I go to these shows, that's all I see.  Row after row of MPC or PW stock all for $15 or $20.  Unreal man, unreal. 

Just my 2 cents.h 

Beginning sometime in the late 90's Lionel went through a slow (painful for some) transition.  Having enjoyed a monopoly with the O gauge train market during the modern era to fiercely having to compete with MTH for its survival.    Twenty five years worth of excessive & repetitive production sold mostly to speculators who didn't operate trains reappeared in the market in huge numbers and eventually collapsed values.   As values continued to drop more collector/speculators bailed out.  Operators took over when scale offshore production began which ended any thought a triumphant return of early modern era Lionel Trains as a collectable of monetary value was possible.   And there you have the answer to your question...Why so much is available today so cheap... 

Joe    

RONK: I'd like to read your thoughts, but it's too difficult to read more than one or two sentences written in a single case. Maybe next time.

RONK posted:

Just some thing to add to this as a retailer, we see customers, customer who are as you say, baby boomers, above the 60 mark,  at this  stage they have a lot and i say a lot of items, so much, were can you place it and also what is on the market same old. Same old road names and  items. What is needed is, yes new faces's and new or repeat of some of the older road names and items, woodland has stepup with there new buildings, menards with the lower pricing but some quialty. Problems, now wyfi and next blue tooth. This great , but the baby  boomer has a problem  with some of these new idea's. Most are willing to learn. The hobby needs the young face to get into this hobby, we have 2 layouts that go to shows for the kids, one with lionel remotes and 1 with the mth wyfi for the young group, is it working, yes and no, kids went it, we offer a discounted pricing for any kid that runs the system on a starter set, it works, some time's, but the parent's do not seems to follow thru with the purchase. Have any of the mfg come to help,  lnl has not nor has mth. Have any of the mfg come up with new items, road names, not that we have seen. Mth has not had a new rtr set for a long time, lnl each year has new rtr items , yes they are not the best, but they are new and price right to get them into the hobby, get started and build. We have lost's about 10 to 12 hobbies a year to passing in our area, this is not good for the hobby, we do not see that many replacing this lost.  I agree with most of the comments the mfg must step up.  With new road names and product build in usa. Just a suggestion, maybe the the clubs would look into getting new and younger members , plus working to have hands on layouts for the younger people to work with, like,  drive it, by it. Maybe we can get the hobby back to a good future. Sorry for the long talk but something must change. The local shop is alway there to help.

.

De-shouted by MS Word...

cplyons posted:

I'm also very new to the hobby. (On October 7, 2016 my 11-year-old inadvertently started an earthquake by saying the words "I like trains. Can we get a model train?" The evil gleam in semi-retired Dad's eyes has been burning ever brighter since that fateful day. We couldn't afford a train set when I was a kid so Boy Howdy I'm making up for lost time).

I've been reading this thread and also the ongoing "What to expect from the Spring York Meet" thread with much interest. Since another new guy just took heat here for possibly uninformed opinions I figured why not throw a few more out there.

The question of what stuff is worth at the resale level is interesting to me. "It's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it" is the gold standard. But believe me the whole "value" question is daunting for the newcomer.

Why should that be, you ask? So a hypothetical newbie like me goes to York for the first time, because he thinks buying pre-owned is the best way to get started/build up his new railroad. He sees miles of aisles containing lots of shiny things. Many look very similar to one another (but we know better). Collectors push past some stuff and then haggle on choice items that differ only to the knowledgable eye. Our prototypical newbie might overpay on some stuff, or insult a veteran seller by asking for a discount on an already low price. Again, why is this situation so challenging for a newcomer?

Some fun with numbers, featuring lots of assumptions stacked one on the other. My hope is that unless there are huge inaccuracies readers not sniper each idea but try to see the overall point, if you agree there is one.

 My 2017 Greenburg's Lionel price list has conservatively 16,000 separate items cataloged. Let's assume that Lionel represents 70% of the entire market of available train-related items. That leads me to assume we have a massive bucket of potential pre-owned inventory containing 22,000 unique items (pre-war, post-war, Modern, accessories, everything) conceivably for sale.

Let's further assume that at a huge show like York as much as 20% of that huge bucket of stuff is represented as being for sale. That's 4,400 individual items.

Let's then assume that the really savvy York visitor has a good idea of several different values for each one: Price of pre-owned Mint/excellent in box, Price of Very good, Price of Used/beat/for parts, Original list price, Train Show price back in the 80's when everything was nice, cost to repair, etc.

You're probably way ahead of me on where we're going on all this, but when these numbers are combined you could say the smart buyer at York should have 12,000 to 18,000 price values in his/her head to buy smart and not step on too many seller's toes. Another point that comes to mind is amazement that most of the folks on this forum carry all that knowledge around in their heads without even thinking about it.

But that makes it tough sometimes for newcomers. Which in turn reinforces a buyer's market and dependence on online buying, since this depth of experience and knowledge is concentrated in a niche of folks that (if not now shrinking) is barely holding its own, let along growing.

What do I conclude from these excellent forum threads and my perhaps confused perceptions? Not much. Mostly that this is a hobby, not an investment. Buy to enjoy and plan to use up whatever you buy without a huge regard for getting the money back at the end. Have as much fun as possible, meet great people, and most of all don't sweat the small stuff (and it's all small stuff).

Chris

Welcome to a great hobby!  Read as much as you can to increase & enhance your personal database.  This is a great source as well as attending train shows.

Dave45681 posted:

RONK posted:

Just some thing to add to this as a retailer, we see customers, customer who are as you say, baby boomers, above the 60 mark,  at this  stage they have a lot and i say a lot of items, so much, were can you place it and also what is on the market same old. .....   The local shop is alway there to help.

De-shouted by MS Word...

That is a good start... thanks, Dave.   Is there any way to put two spaces after each period and throw in 2 or 3  paragraph breaks?   Still pretty hard to read.

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

CincinnatiWestern posted:

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

Dennis LaGrua posted:

As for the new faces in the hobby. The hobby is too expensive for young people to consider.  Years ago the corporate world hungered for college and young talent. Opportunity to make a solid living was was everywhere. Today college grads are lucky to work in Starbucks as a barista.

I graduated from college in 1981.  I can recall HUNDREDS of companies coming on campus to interview seniors who would be graduating.  Some companies (like AT&T Bell Labs) would even offer to hire you and send you to Graduate School "full time" (at any institution) for a Masters Degree the year following graduation.  As I think back to those days, I probably had well over a dozen job offers in hand -- some local, some across the country.  And that's just from the companies I chose to explore more seriously after the first on-campus interview.    Had I visited more companies for a follow-up interview, I probably could have had another dozen or so job offers!  

Those of us graduating at the time could have written our own ticket (and many did) -- settling ANYWHERE in the country to work and live.  It was a VERY different time than what faces college grads of today.

David

I have to disagree, ...

in the late 1990's when I graduated college anyone with a degree in anything technology related landed  great jobs straight out of school. Jobs which paid more than most of their professional parents made at the time, to say that a early 20 something making 100k+ a year cannot afford any hobby they want is a bit off. most of my friends who took those jobs are millionaires today.

...

Can't argue with that.  How can we forget the generation of graduates that gave us the likes of Marissa Meyer, where a million dollars is tossed around like a rounding error? 

After Yahoo balked at Microsoft's $44 BILLION buy-out offer in 2008/2009, Meyer took over as CEO a year or two later.  Fast-forward to 2017, where Verizon is now buying Yahoo for ONE TENTH that amount, at $4.1 Billion give or take a few million.  Through it all Meyer STILL may receive a golden parachute worth more than $23 Million... uh you guessed it, give or take a couple of million.  Yes there goes those million dollar rounding errors again.   

Not bad for a young Google executive who had no business whatsoever stepping into a CEO position at Yahoo.  Despite her tendency for overspending and poor executive performance, Meyer still walks away with a ridiculous net worth and a multi-million dollar severance package, while the company's asset value declined nearly 90% during her tenure as CEO.  

I guess I missed those college classes that taught that kind of creative math and business acumen.    In my day it was just called smoke-and-mirrors... plain and simple.  In my parent's generation, I think the term was "selling snake oil".

All of this notwithstanding, I still agree with Dennis' representation that today's college grads are lucky if they find themselves working at Starbucks.  That's not to say there isn't a crop of successful graduates today -- but it's not the critical mass that existed back when I graduated in 1981.  Oh... and let's not forget that the most I paid for college tuition (at a well-known private university) was less than $7,500 in my senior year -- much less in earlier years.  Today's parents are probably footing a bill close to TEN times that number, so hopefully a successful graduate of today better darn well become a millionaire pretty quickly to pay off that debt. 

Either way... model trains don't seem to be too high on their priority list. 

David 

Well David, she sure is cuter than Hunter Harrison! As for your financial questions, ...

I've recently been posting items on the bay that I don't have room for at home (mostly scale-sized freight cars from some years ago) and started them all at 99 cents like Trainz does successfully.  I'm amazed at how poorly these have sold even though there have been 8 -20 watchers with 3-8 actual bidders. I've had many go out at $10 - $15 with several bringing only single digit prices.

All of these I had at our recent train show where most sat on my table for two days unsold.

A real surprise was the dozen or so K-Line scale boxcars that didn't sell at the show and on eBay last week only brought $7 - $12. 

Sad...

c.sam posted:

I've recently been posting items on the bay that I don't have room for at home (mostly scale-sized freight cars from some years ago) and started them all at 99 cents like Trainz does successfully.  I'm amazed at how poorly these have sold even though there have been 8 -20 watchers with 3-8 actual bidders. I've had many go out at $10 - $15 with several bringing only single digit prices.

All of these I had at our recent train show where most sat on my table for two days unsold.

A real surprise was the dozen or so K-Line scale boxcars that didn't sell at the show and on eBay last week only brought $7 - $12. 

Sad...

Yup-

I suspect that many of the "silent watchers" want to see what yours sell for before they list their own!

One day last week there were 51 (yes, I counted) KW transformers in ready-to-use condition and 93 ZWs. The only ones that are selling at any price are the ones that are sold by dealers offering a warranty.

Sam, I don't think you're seeing much of an anomaly.  Just a day or two before the recent Allentown ATMA meet in February, I hastily threw together a list of tinplate items for sale that I offered to bring to the Allentown show to avoid shipping costs.

Not one inquiry... either via email or on the for-sale thread itself.    Most notably were FOUR aggressively priced Lionel #305 Hellgate Bridges (at $275/each) that I wasn't gonna use on my new layout.  (I had 7 total, but only ended up using 3).  Stuff just isn't moving right now, unless it's something that folks think are ultra-desirable.  Translated... that implies folks aren't necessarily buying stuff they think is "cool" or "nice to have".  But rather they're buying stuff they're confident will sell quickly should they desire to flip their purchase.    Of course, there are always exceptions, and somebody might occasionally buy something they plan to use and enjoy. 

But I think two factors are driving the used market right now:

• Finding a deeply discounted bargain,
• Finding something that the buyer thinks LOTS of other folks want too.

David

RadioRon posted:

That is a good start... thanks, Dave.   Is there any way to put two spaces after each period and throw in 2 or 3  paragraph breaks?   Still pretty hard to read.

Not by me.  

It took me only about 10-15 seconds to copy the text, dump it into Word and change the format to Sentence Case, and post it back on the forum. 

Any other heroics would require manual modifications I am not comfortable doing to another person's post.

-Dave

PLCProf posted:

One day last week there were 51 (yes, I counted) KW transformers in ready-to-use condition and 93 ZWs. The only ones that are selling at any price are the ones that are sold by dealers offering a warranty. 

Might indicate transformers have been rendered obsolete by command control systems.

What, me worry?

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

..................  Most notably were FOUR aggressively priced Lionel #305 Hellgate Bridges (at $275/each) that I wasn't gonna use on my new layout.  (I had 7 total, but only ended up using 3).  Stuff just isn't moving right now, unless it's something that folks think are ultra-desirable.  Translated... that implies folks aren't necessarily buying stuff they think is "cool" or "nice to have".  .......................

Had it been 3-4 years ago, I probably would have been a potential candidate for those.  I didn't go for the Hellgates when they came out, but a few years back decided to continue my bridge addiction and get one of each color scheme of the 305.  I recall paying $400 for a 32999 from my dealer when he got a NOS one in a collection, and I think I paid somewhere just north of $300 for a 32904  around 2 years ago in an on-line auction.  (and the morons from FedEx that delivered it damaged some of my outdoor Christmas decorations when it was delivered, so I would have definitely looked at local pick up as an attractive option!)

So while I ultimately bought one of each, I satisfied my needs a few years back, so I'm no longer in the market.  I still follow them on eBay a little, and I do note a downward trend over the recent years.  It's been a long time since one has brought $400, I think.  It seems somewhere between low $200's and maybe close to $300 seems to be normal now.  (also depends on box, condition, etc, of course).

-Dave

I just paid  $225 for an nos red and silver hellgate, fwiw.

400e posted:

I just paid  $225 for an nos red and silver hellgate, fwiw.

Good for you.  Mine are $275.   

Might indicate transformers have been rendered obsolete by command control systems.

Or it could be that people are reluctant to risk purchasing transformers online without some sort of guarantee and some confidence that the seller is capable of verifying that the transformer is in good working order.
I've purchased a few transformers online that were sold as being ready for use. They weren't.  Was I cheated or was it a lack of knowledge on the seller's part?    ....... It really does not matter.

Unless a person is very comfortable with doing their own repairs on transformers, I would not recommend purchasing one online from a casual seller. Stick with a known, reliable source that will guarantee it.

My recent experience at the Lone Star Hi-Railers annual swap meet:

I brought 40+ items, all used, and had a goal to bring NOTHING back home. It was a one day show.  All of the items were 3R scale, and I didn't feel that I undercut the other dealers since their items were all of the O-27, tin plate type, or a different scale. And it should be mentioned here that our region does not have the high numbers of RR modelers as does the eastern US. Here is a survey of how sales in Texas were that day:

MTH QSI and PS1 locos $40 each.  Unpowered $30.

MTH freight cars $10 to 15.

Atlas freight cars $25 to 30.

Weaver 2Rail trucks $2 ea.

K-Line semi trailers $4 ea.

I sold about 2/3 of it by the end of the day.  Then I invited a dealer to bid on the remainder...his number was only $25 from mine and he got the rest. He should be able to advance every item he purchased from me, because he will be more patient than I am.  

S gauge engines are way overpriced - which is why they are in the same place every show (Gilbertsville, Allentown etc).  How can you ask $300 to $400 for a 60 plus year old Northern, when you can purchase a brand new one with flyer chief and all the bells and whistles for $450 to $500?

Add DCC or TMCC  to make the old clunker into something useable and you add about $160 and a $40 DC motor - no way

I picked up a mint K5 at Allentown for $50, when the other tables had stuff in the $100 to $225 range and none looked as good.

Notice to sellers, If you sold them at a reasonable price, you would sell more.

I love the old people postwar original trains O gauge 027 I have them and still run in excellent condition!... I'm willing to buy old trains made in America ...Good old USA... To me it's Lionel not these new trains that are made in Mexico or China to say the least.... My Brother in law has Old postwar n pre war trains they run like a champ! He makes a big Christmas platform every year... People love it when he displays it in the window and can't believe they still run!... ����☺️����

I have had very good expirences with the used train market. Some of the MPC trains were acutually very nice and most of the stuff can be up and running with some oil and grease. I have been buying and selling used trains on eBay for about 7 years. I am one of the younger ones in this hobby, I'm only 18, and it seems like this hobby has a future but I think the key is getting future generations involved. I have shown a lot of my friends my layout and the trains running. All of them have liked it, the only trains people really point out are Norfolk southern since that is what runs around here in Cleveland.  

I think the rude dealers charging msrp is a reason why this hobby continues to shrink. I had a local hobby shop a few blocks away which had some Lionel but it was all over msrp and the employees were old and very rude. They went out of business a few years ago, I don't even know how the store managed to stay in business that long with such high prices and rude employees. I found a much better LHs, the trading post train shop in Cleveland. That is an example of how to treat your customers right. I have bought many sets, engines, and cars there and have been very happy with jim and his awesome customer service. Some other hobby shops don't get how happiness and respect towards their customers, can really effect sales of product. 

When I sell used trains I know the only way they will sell is if you price them to sell. If I ever sell a train I never expect to get back what I bought it for. It's supposed to be about having fun. I enjoy running the trains I have, and 90% of my collection was bought used off eBay. All my track, switches, transformers, are all used. I run 2 ZWs with TMCC and DCS. It's nice being able to switch from conventional and command.  I like the Railking PS3 engines and the Lionel TMCC ones too. I have  upgraded a Williams Amtrak genesis to TMCC and cruise. I like what menards is doing too, there buildings and cars are nice for the price. That's why I own so many.

Liam posted:

I have had very good expirences with the used train market. Some of the MPC trains were acutually very nice and most of the stuff can be up and running with some oil and grease. I have been buying and selling used trains on eBay for about 7 years. I am one of the younger ones in this hobby, I'm only 18, and it seems like this hobby has a future but I think the key is getting future generations involved. I have shown a lot of my friends my layout and the trains running. All of them have liked it, the only trains people really point out are Norfolk southern since that is what runs around here in Cleveland.  

I think the rude dealers charging msrp is a reason why this hobby continues to shrink. I had a local hobby shop a few blocks away which had some Lionel but it was all over msrp and the employees were old and very rude. They went out of business a few years ago, I don't even know how the store managed to stay in business that long with such high prices and rude employees. I found a much better LHs, the trading post train shop in Cleveland. That is an example of how to treat your customers right. I have bought many sets, engines, and cars there and have been very happy with jim and his awesome customer service. Some other hobby shops don't get how happiness and respect towards their customers, can really effect sales of product. 

When I sell used trains I know the only way they will sell is if you price them to sell. If I ever sell a train I never expect to get back what I bought it for. It's supposed to be about having fun. I enjoy running the trains I have, and 90% of my collection was bought used off eBay. All my track, switches, transformers, are all used. I run 2 ZWs with TMCC and DCS. It's nice being able to switch from conventional and command.  I like the Railking PS3 engines and the Lionel TMCC ones too. I have  upgraded a Williams Amtrak genesis to TMCC and cruise. I like what menards is doing too, there buildings and cars are nice for the price. That's why I own so many.

Absolutely beautiful!!!..����������

Liam, love your layout.    For the way I do this hobby, it is perfect!

Dave45681 posted:

TrainGuyMcGee posted:

Well, I'm new to this so my response may be somewhat different than most peoples here.  Some things I've noticed in the 4 months I've been at this hobby:

.........................

Just my 2 cents.

That's a lot of very strong (not right or wrong, but strong convictions) opinions for only being in the hobby for four months.

Your "rolling eyes" emoticon for things being made of plastic, I hate to tell you is true for 90% of the new product too (with the exception of steam engines, which are nearly all die cast), so in your eyes it must all be crap too, I guess?  Die cast or other metal construction for non-steam engines or rolling stock is the exception, not the rule here.

A lot of people consider $15-20 a fair price for a piece of rolling stock if it's in nice condition, I believe your expectations there are out of line, even if it is something from 25 years ago.  (If it's beat up or heavily used then of course it's worth less)  If you don't like anything PW, MPC, LTI, or other more recent flavors of Lionel up to the present, you are just not interested.  That's different than it all being "crap".  Believe it or not, there are actually people who like O-27 sized equipment due to nostalgia, it's ability to negotiate smaller layouts, or other reasons.

Which auctions actually sold a whole box of rolling stock for $10?  Links (or numbers so we can look them up ourselves since a link may cause this thread to be deleted).  I'm calling BS on that one.  There is a well known auction house that does a combination of live and "eBay live" auctions, and a lot of those lots were recently (around a week ago) listed as starting at $10, but very few if any actually sold for $10, they were just started as true auctions since the purpose was to move the product.  The market decided most lots went for more than the starting bid. 

I am also a gen-x'er with the difference being I've been in the hobby since I was a young adult, so around 20 years now.  Some of your observations are valid, but many IMO are not.  I was one of the youngest people in the hobby when I started, and I'm probably still in the youngest 20-25% of the hobby.  Your comment about Lionel being out of business in the next 20 years will have nothing to do with the perceived problems you are citing.  They are generally making what people are voting for with their wallets.  The QC issues with remote manufacturing may eventually have significant impact, but for some reason a lot of O Gauge customers are very forgiving in that regard (shipping back to importer for repairs right out of the box, etc - but that is not exclusively a Lionel problem by any means).

 

I won't post links to other auction sites (for the reasons mentioned above) but you can browse through Live Auctioneers, Invaluable, Goodwill Auctions and many many more.  I see these all the time.

My comment about Lionel being out of business in 20 years was based on the fact that the few train shows I've been to are dominated by boomers (think 90 ish %).  If my observation is correct which I hope it's not, there is definately a demographic time bomb around the corner.  Regardless of current gross revenues, if there are no new customers coming in, your existing customer base eventually begins to decrease.  This holds true for any business.  Is Lionel becoming the Buick of model railroading?  Maybe this is why Lionel's prices continue to climb and climb.  Fewer customers and fewer units sold = higher prices to sustain overhead etc...

You state:  "A lot of people consider $15-20 a fair price for a piece of rolling stock if it's in nice condition, I believe your expectations there are out of line, even if it is something from 25 years ago.  (If it's beat up or heavily used then of course it's worth less)  If you don't like anything PW, MPC, LTI, or other more recent flavors of Lionel up to the present, you are just not interested.  That's different than it all being "crap".  Believe it or not, there are actually people who like O-27 sized equipment due to nostalgia, it's ability to negotiate smaller layouts, or other reasons." 

I have no issue (unlike some folks here) with an individual placing a value on something.  What you or I may deem something is worth may be completely different which is ok.  I'm just not understanding how toys built in the 80's and 90's that retailed for probably $40 are selling for $20 to $25 today.  And I'm referring to the mass produced traditional sized rolling stock and not locomotives or special editions runs etc... 

Notice that I did not place the newer full scale Lionel rolling stock in with that blurb?  I consider those to be more, well model like and of higher build quality.   

You also stated:  "so in your eyes it must all be crap too, I guess?"  Um, no.  I was simply referring to the fact that it was plastic so therefore had a cheaper manufacturing cost than if were metal. 

Liam posted:

I have had very good expirences with the used train market. Some of the MPC trains were acutually very nice and most of the stuff can be up and running with some oil and grease. I have been buying and selling used trains on eBay for about 7 years. I am one of the younger ones in this hobby, I'm only 18, and it seems like this hobby has a future but I think the key is getting future generations involved. I have shown a lot of my friends my layout and the trains running. All of them have liked it, the only trains people really point out are Norfolk southern since that is what runs around here in Cleveland.  

I think the rude dealers charging msrp is a reason why this hobby continues to shrink. I had a local hobby shop a few blocks away which had some Lionel but it was all over msrp and the employees were old and very rude. They went out of business a few years ago, I don't even know how the store managed to stay in business that long with such high prices and rude employees. I found a much better LHs, the trading post train shop in Cleveland. That is an example of how to treat your customers right. I have bought many sets, engines, and cars there and have been very happy with jim and his awesome customer service. Some other hobby shops don't get how happiness and respect towards their customers, can really effect sales of product. 

When I sell used trains I know the only way they will sell is if you price them to sell. If I ever sell a train I never expect to get back what I bought it for. It's supposed to be about having fun. I enjoy running the trains I have, and 90% of my collection was bought used off eBay. All my track, switches, transformers, are all used. I run 2 ZWs with TMCC and DCS. It's nice being able to switch from conventional and command.  I like the Railking PS3 engines and the Lionel TMCC ones too. I have  upgraded a Williams Amtrak genesis to TMCC and cruise. I like what menards is doing too, there buildings and cars are nice for the price. That's why I own so many.

Liam I feel your pain man!  It sounds like you've had some of the same experiences I've had.  Grumpy LHS guys selling stuff over MSRP etc...  My LHS guy even got agitated with me because I brought my toddler into the store with me.  Good to hear you've found another LHS that has great customer service.  Unfortunately for me, I live in the Dallas area and don't really have any 3 rail hobby shops - unless you consider Hobby Town USA a train shop. 

TrainGuyMcGee posted:

Well, I'm new to this so my response may be somewhat different than most peoples here.  Some things I've noticed in the 4 months I've been at this hobby:

• The younger or "newer" generation of O gaugers aren't into O-27 or traditional scale like most guys in this hobby (generally speaking of course).  Why buy tiny O scale stuff?  If you want small stuff, why not just go HO?
• The market is definately flooded with PW, MPC and early 90's 0-27 stock.  There's just way too much of it out there.  I've seen auction sites selling boxes of 10 pieces of rolling stock (all PW or MPC) for $10. Let's face guys, this stuff looks toy-ish, doesn't run very well and is mostly made of plastic.....
• This hobby (O gauge in particular) has done a **** poor job of bringing in new blood.  I go to swaps and shows and see 90% to 95% of the people there are baby boomers.  Conversely, I've been to HO shows and they are closer to a 50% to 50% mix of boomers vs. younger folks.  Lionel will cease to exist in 20 years if they don't change.  MTH and Atlas will be ok as they are slowly pushing into HO.  Good for them. 

So those are just some observations I've made.  Now I have some questions for you O scale gurus.

• All toys essentially have almost no resale value after a year or two.  You can call it "garage sale value" for arguments sake.  With that in mind, how in the &^%$ do you think you can sell a 1991 or 1992 piece of rolling stock that's made of plastic, not even full scale and manufactured in China by the thousands for $20?  I mean, that's probably the retail price of it when it was new.  I don't get it.  But when I go to these shows, that's all I see.  Row after row of MPC or PW stock all for $15 or $20.  Unreal man, unreal. 
• Why do people somehow feel this forum is a "safe haven" for transactions?  It's definately not.  You have no recourse.  Ebay is by far the safest venue.  They go to extremes to guarantee a good  purchasing experience. That's not my opinion, that's a fact.  Don't take my word for it, read their policies.  I might be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure this forum doesn't even have a policy for questionable or misrepresentations that may take place here (if it exists, please let me know as I'd like to see it).  You could say, this is the most dangerous place to buy/swap/sell.  That's a new guys opinion though, and only that.
• Is this hobby even trying to market to any other age group or demographic?  I have seen zero effort to do so.  Just curious.  I'd like more Gen X'ers like myself to get into the hobby so maybe the prices on newer stock can come down a bit?  I know, I'm stretching on that one.
• If Lionel supposedly charges ridiculous prices (all I ever see is people complaining about them here) then why do people keep buying it?  It's not like their product is any better than MTH loco's or Atlas rolling stock. 
• Additionally, why is Lionel many times portrayed as the "golden child" or "golden standard"?  I don't get it (especially when discussing used prices).  I could see them being the "golden child" back in the 50's.  But after that, it became a crap company.  Actually it wasn't even really a company in the MPC era.  It was a division of another company.  They literally made the same crap from the 1960's up until the early 90's.  And it was crap. As a matter of fact, it went from really good (PW stuff rocked) to crap, then from there, it went to being even crappier and then devolved into the absolute crappiest in the 90's.  Matter of fact, it was so crappy that some guy named Mike Wolfe came in and wrecked them.  His product ran circles around them (come on, that was funny), so much that Lionel stole all of his designs.   But, somehow, they were allowed to continue on......  But hey, their new stuff is pretty good though.  I mean, it should be because for 5 years they had no R&D costs because, well they were just stealing the tech from MTH.

Thanks for reading, I'm bored and it's Sunday night.   But my biggest question is this: is the O scale hobby doomed in the next 20 years?  There's no concerted effort to bring any new blood to the hobby.  This will only drive new loco and rolling stock prices up and up, which of course limits the amount of people that want to get into it.  If it is doomed, please let me know so I can get out while I can and sell my stock while there's some semblance of a market to sell it in.

Just my 2 cents.

Not a good idea to "knock" the Buy/Sell Forum without citing specific cases. I have encountered nothing less than satisfactory experiences on it. Participants are "good folks",  and it is an excellent service provided by OGR.  Remember: eBay has not earned the name "flea-bay" by accident.  

SURFLINER posted:

Not a good idea to "knock" the Buy/Sell Forum without citing specific cases. I have encountered nothing less than satisfactory experiences on it. Participants are "good folks",  and it is an excellent service provided by OGR.  Remember: eBay has not earned the name "flea-bay" by accident.  

I will echo the sentiment here. To be fair, I have only purchased once from the forum, but it was a pleasant experience and the car purchased was received as described. As long as you do your homework and purchase from reputable names on the forum, I am confident you'll have no issues. And without having to pay a percentage to someone else.  It is nice to have faith in humanity sometimes.

I will agree with the fact that the younger people I have talked to, being 31 myself, are more interested in scale equipment/model railroading. I still think there is a place for "Toy" train layout. It is purely up to individual preference. I myself have a 4x8 "toy" layout, though the eventual goal is to have a scale layout. 

Not a good idea to "knock" the Buy/Sell Forum without citing specific cases. I have encountered nothing less than satisfactory experiences on it. Participants are "good folks",  and it is an excellent service provided by OGR.  Remember: eBay has not earned the name "flea-bay" by accident.  

I was ripped off by a seller here.
Bought a lot of rolling stock that was listed as being in nice shape.
When the stuff arrived it was in poor condition with rust, scratches and paint specks.
Several of the cars were physically broken. The packing was poor, so it could have been shipping damage.
The seller would not make good.

I have purchased hundreds of items, including trains on EBay. There were very few disappointments. In almost all cases, when I was less than happy, the seller made it right without involving EBay or PayPal. There was a couple of times I had to open a case with EBay.

Both sales venues can have their bad apples. EBay may seem worse because it is a larger venue. You also have people selling who really don't know anything about trains. At least with EBay you can open a case. The rules here expressly forbid even talking about it.

All that written, I still use the buy-sell board, but I use it carefully.  I appreciate the entire forum. Thank you to the folks at OGR.

C W Burfle posted:

RONK: I'd like to read your thoughts, but it's too difficult to read more than one or two sentences written in a single case. Maybe next time.

I don't even attempt those types anymore. Not even one sentence. Go right on by. Hurts my eyes and brain.