Will Your O Gauge Trains Come from India or Africa Eventually?

Hi "MU Eagel"very interesting toy train market perspective from the mind of an historian. Most people would not think of Africa as a possible source of mass production. But, if we look at how some of the African economies are growing and their education level is improving this is something that is very possible in the next ten years.

I have never enjoyed the benefit of a formal education in world history, but I do have a  deep interest in it. I  have more history books at home then on the subject of toy trains and I watch five diffrent channels on TV about it.

The one obvious point to be taken by the subject is that social and economic direction or growth of any culture is not governed by what  they love or wont, but by need. The Goths burnt Rome, but it was also the Goths, Huns and many others who carried Roman culture into and through the second millennium.

The same thing can be found in the African countries. Many of their problems in the late fifties was due to their hatred of colonialism. They tried their best to be anything but European. Unfortunately this provided a fertile ground for the growth of despotism. But, as they developed, the need to provide for their people has forced them to take a second look at what was good about the European system and adopt it as their own. This shows in the growth of private business, a slow but steady increase in their standard of living as well as a greater access to health care, education and food.

If things keep developing as they are Africa may very well become more capitalistic then capitalistic Europe, not to mention more Christian  then Christian Europe.

So as a possible place for the seed of investment to prosper I would bet the long term perspective for the continent is very good.

I am not sure about Africa but I can see India and Russia

From what I have read and heard on the radio China is heading down hill economically pretty fast due to government control and not private control of industry. Whole cities have been built with no one to populate them due to high prices. Chinese companies are being caught 'cooking the books' wrt financial information for the stock market. I would love to see production come back to the US and would even be willing to pay more to see this; however right on my money is on expansion in Korea as China heads south. I was under the impression Weaver manufactures in the US - is this still true? I like their rolling stock especially the TOC/TOF cars.

Joe

India might be a good thing. My cardiologist is also a train "junkie". He travels to India as a instructor every year. The trains he brings back are beautiful and yes, they are "Made In India". Some are O-Gauge, some are HO.

Mexico, next to the border there are SAFE areas were manufactures can have parts made and trucked right across the border where they can be assembled by Americans, they would have the final say on QC, A bunch of USA fortune 500 countries are doing it.

Why?

NAFTA is why, there are a lot of incentive to do it for a corporation. NAFTA is far from perfect  on a lot of fronts, but not on manufacture parts and shipping them in some cases a few blocks across the border.

However I like the Ireland idea being half Irish.

John

To answer the original question...nope...mine won't come from there or anywhere else.  Other than one-sies and two-sies I believe that I am bought out.  I am finally saturated...getting too old to sink money into toy trains...realizing my sons will just "dump" them when I kick the bucket.

I think there is much, much more of the "market" about to reach this point.  Gloom and doom...I don't think all these importers can survive.

I agree John..being half Irish all I can say is "Aye"   There are a million different directions manufacturing can go. But when I read threads where people talking about hold ups, problems, etc... I think the big picture is being missed.

And here's the big picture..

One day its going to be too expensive to have manufacturing in China. That day will come. And companies are going to do in China what they did in the US. They are going to leave. The question is where to?

India has opportunities due to population, techonoloy already being outsourced there in the IT world, and the fact that its cheaper.

There are many countries in Africa that have a lot going for them.

If Kenya can remain stable and have peaceful elections it can be a magnet to the continent.

Tanzania is also a stable country, South Africa has gone far since its Apartheid's days.

Of course there are many countries in Africa that are not stable and out of the question. But its becoming clear to me that Africa's importance in the near future is going to increase.

Will Your O Gauge Trains Come from India or Africa Eventually?

Not unless they have a cache of PW trains that we do not know about.

nope........

Maybe Vietnam Republic of,  Indonesia,  Australia,  Phillipines,   Sweden,

and of course...the North Pole!!!!    But for the long haul, I suspect

they'll be made off world....always wanted a GEEP9  in Wookee paint!

If they do eventually come from India or Africa, at least the passenger cars will be full of people. 

I remember reading something here on the forum or in OGR a couple of years ago about some company in China out-sourcing to a company down in Georgia for electronics for toy trains - if we wait long enough, they'll come back to the US for the rest of it!

As long as equipment is built to a level of quality which is acceptable to me at a price I can afford to pay I don't much care where the models are made. I've been buying foreign made trains - Mehano, Rivarossi, Kato, Farish to name just a few - for decades so the country of origin is of minimal consideration to me.

Bob 

I don't know where. As they have done in the past, over time they will all move on to a country with lower wages.

Interesting question. Looking at Africa (and I've lived there), the big obstacle to any sort of investment in manufacturing is the rule of law, or lack thereof. Property rights in most African countries are shaky, as the government, or the ruling party, or the ruling family, can expropriate, confiscate, or bleed any investment and there is no recourse to the courts. Foreign managers are subject to arrest for political reasons (years ago I happened to be in Zambia when a European mining engineer was imprisoned for drawing a cartoon of the President and showing it to some of his workmates). Another legal problem is labor laws. On paper at least, worker rights in Africa are similar to those in Europe, i.e. it's impossible to fire anybody or lay them off. There is also enormous pressure to hire relatives of politicians for "management" positions or to bring them in as "investors" with a share of the profits but no actual investment. Africa could be a much more prosperous place than it is now, if the generally predatory nature of government there could be changed. There are some exceptions, countries that are evolving in a more open and democratic way, but most of the continent is still a pretty lousy place for a Western investor to do business. Anyone interested in the subject would do well to read Dead Aid by Dambisa Moyo, a Zambian economist who worked at Goldman Sachs. 

Many of the above problems also exist in China, India, etc. but not to the degree seen in Africa. 

What I do feel confident about, irregardless of where or how toy trains are made, nothing ever gets cheaper as a rule of thumb and there will be no roll back of retail costs. However, less labor costs may equate to greater profits for these "distributors" who outsource manufacturing, which may lead to more variety, meaning new tooling..but as far as costs coming down, I seriously doubt it. As far as delays...anything made overseas will have delays..India just went through a massive, national power outage..one of several that occur fairly regularly. There is no perfect place to make toy trains..even here, or there. It's sort of a highly speculative non issue for me in terms of what results will occur should this happen..The answer..not much as far as the status quo or any transformative change in real terms.

Wish it was otherwise.