When I got into the hobby about 15 years ago, I had the same experience as you, dealers and LHS owners viewing the Greenburg Guides as an infallible pricing guide.  Heck, my Uncle is still sitting on a pile of nice PW items because he thinks he's going to get Greenburg RETAIL prices for his stuff.  I tried pointing out that those prices were what a retailer would get and that he would get roughly half if he sold them to a LHS, but he wasn't budging.

 

I like the full-sized Greenburg Guides because of the nice pictures and they identify sets very well, but I don't trust their values for anything. 

 

The Internet has changed everything.

 

 

I definitely use it "as a guide", it certainly saved me a bundle of $ on that one purchase a few months ago! 

I imagine TEN DRUNK COLLECTORS gather at CHEERS, and write in the prices.  Then, the publisher puts a new picture on the 2015 Guide, and charges $15.95 for his little booklet.  Then JOE BLOW, the novice Collector, comes to my table at York and shows me what prices I should be charging.  Then, I go to a house sale, And Dorothy from Oz whips out her Guide, and tells me how much she wants for her Rutland Boxcar with the solid shield.  All in all, these pocket guides are the worst disservice to us all!  I assure you the prices are no more scientific or accurate than a Ouiji Board!!!  On the other hand, the Big reference-type guides provide valuable information as to production and variation, so I just ignore the prices present in these books.  The pocket guides are just MONEY MAKERS FOR THE NEWBIES!!!  Spend a few hours at auctions and online, and you learn much more!

I know one person who was involved in setting prices for a Greenberg guide. Other than him, I don't know anybody who was polled on prices, and I've never seen anybody who identified themselves as a Greenberg person wandering a train show.

 

Don't get me wrong, While I don't buy the pocket guides, I have purchased many of the full sized books. Information isn't always carried forward, so I've held onto the older books for reference.

 

I have also purchased the latest Greenberg book on Standard Gauge, even though I don't collect standard.

 

The six volume set from TM is also a good reference, as is the Hollander book, and the publications from Project Roars.

 

The hobby has come a long way from when I started, when the only material out there were the Ladd checklists, old catalogs and magazine ads, along with the occasional article. (I wasn't a TCA member and did not have access to their magazine)

Ron,

You're one of a kind!

 

God Bless,

"Pappy"

Quite a few of the OLDSTERS did not have any books...just the gray matter between their ears!

 

As a newbie (someone who has had trains all his lifetime, but is really just starting to "collect"), any information is better than none.  In the case of the accessory I looked at and almost purchased but didn't because the price was out of line from Greenberg's (not even same ballpark), I was able to move on from this one table and find a similar piece at a different table for a much more reasonable price.  I also spent some time online afterwards and found that the table vendor was clearly trying to make rob me blind, as the item could be found on the bay for about 1/3 the price, much more in line with what was in the guide.

 

I'm pretty sure the key word is "guide" here, but I'm still wondering how this thing is compiled, and from your comments I can tell you are too.

 

Rich

^^^^^ "ouch" again ^^^^^^ 

Kind of frustrating to come to a "forum" where folks seem to be willing to share and collaborate, and to have someone infer that there is no gray matter between my ears and/or be called names...

 

Just asking a question...

Many of the PIONEER COLLECTORS did not have any books.  That is what I said...and it has nothing to do with anyone on here.  The pocket guides are meaningless.  The prices are not determinable by any logical means...and I have no idea whether you are a newbie or not.  We were all newbies at one time.  Please reread before you go off again!  From a fellow Marylander...

Before the days of EBay, prices and what was considered to be rare and/or desireable varied by area. I guess it still does today, but Ebay has smoothed some of that out.

 

As Ron wrote, the large format books have a wealth of information, but that information does contain errors, and must be taken with a grain of salt. A recent discussion about Lionel Postwar 375 turntables illustrates the point.

 

One way to learn about pricing is to follow Ebay ads for some of the items that are of interest to you. Also look at the closing prices of SOLD items. Don't forget to factor in shipping costs. And disregard any numbers that are significantly higher or lower than the rest (for the same item in the same condition).
As you look at Ebay, disregard words like "rare", or "made by Madison Hardware".

 

Finally. I don't think Ron meant to infer anything.
As someone who was around before all the guides, I can tell you that one of the elements that made collecting fun was doing research, and discovery, etc. and sharing that information with friends. I prefer to think that was what he was referring to.

Hey CW, have you had the time to compare the new Greenberg book to the older ones?  As you said, the old is not always carried forward to the new.  And, the above point I made was indeed a quote from Chuck Brasher..."we didn't have all those darn books...there's a lotta mistakes!"  I grew up with the books...40 years now...and though mostly accurate, I have to rely a good deal on what I see at Auctions, shows, etc.  I guess my advice  would be to rely more upon what you experience than what you read!  AMEN!!!   Ron B.

Normally, if I have a question on prices, I whip out my phone and do a search on eBay for past sales.  Usually, I can find a few examples.  I also have the numbers of some really knowledgeable guys that know the values by heart that I can call if necessary.

 

The more you get exposed to the sales venues, the easier it is to determine if a price is off in the stratosphere.

I think you described your discovery of the real value of the guide in this one paragraph.

 

1)You didn't need it.

2)You need to do your research independent of the guide before going shopping.

3)The guide is not as accurate as the real historical data available to you from a number of sources.

quote:

Hey CW, have you had the time to compare the new Greenberg book to the older ones?  As you said, the old is not always carried forward to the new.  Ron B.

 

I haven't looked at it yet. I only opened the box last night, and checked for crushed corners or other damage (there wasn't any).

A reference book on values on anything is the opposite of how any collectible market fluctuates over time. It is only of value in relation to when it was written. Surveying E Bay pricing is tricky and should be thorough as many items are over-priced and I wish I had a dime for every time I saw "rare" attached to an item when the opposite is true. The same is true for an under valued item, which is the bulk of what I purchase ( of course).

Its more art than science.

One more thought: condition is everything, and original boxes / packing / instructions adds a lot to the price of Postwar and Prewar Lionel trains. This is starting to be true for early Modern era stuff. After all, the stuff made under the MPC banner is now over forty years old.

To me the Greenberg guide serves purely as a checklist/wantlist. Prices can really fluctuate and after doing a few shows and researching online prices you can get a good feeling for the market. After a while it becomes just pure gut, you will instinctively know if the price is in the ballpark. Also regional prices can vary quite a bit.

All the best,

Miketg

All the nonsense aside, it sounds like my assumptions of a Greenberg person asking you all  (vendors) for input isn't what is happening.

If you watched the Petruzzo Auction yesterday on Stout, you learned one thing...NEVER THROW AWAY CARDBOARD!!! Ron B.

It probably happened.... but it's a static snapshot frozen in time that probably does not reflect current prices. Its not a static kind of phenomenon.

Another factor to consider is that Greenberg pricing in those guides shows different prices for different conditions. If you read the fine print in the condition guidelines, you will see that condition does not include whether or not the item actually runs. The condition refers only to cosmetics, not operation. A C-8 item may not run at all.

 

You may see a premium charged in the price for an item in C-8 condition, for example,  that is also a superb running engine or operating accessory.

 

Make sure you ask or test before buying to determine how an item operates - don't assume!

 

Guidebooks are just what they are called - only a guide. As Ron and C.W. are saying, experience and research beyond guidebooks is important.

 

The advice of a long-time collector by your side at a train show beats any guide. It pays to develop friendships in the hobby for advice about major purchases.

 

I also learned over the years to do a lot of listening when the "old guys" talk about trains.

 

Jim

 

Thanks Jim, sound advice for sure...

quote:

I also learned over the years to do a lot of listening when the "old guys" talk about trains

 

Gee Jim, when do you get to be one of those "old guys"?

C.W,

 

I knew someone would reel in that bait I left out there!!!

 

I guessing that I would now qualify chronologically, but probably not in terms of knowledge and wisdom. Although some wouldn't agree, I think I still try to do more listening than.....

 

Jim

 

 

Jim,

 

I agree, it always pays to listen. None of us know everything.
Still, I think you possess quite a bit of that knowledge and wisdom.

Price guides, for ANTHING, are great for making a collector "feel rich". Although price guides state that the top prices given are for "mint", many dealers use it for "basket case" items.

Years ago I collected View Master (3-D reels). Once the price guides came out, that was pretty much the end of my buying. The guides probably have my collection at around $5,000., but I'd be lucky to get a single buyer to pay $500. for it.

I purchase a new pocket price guide about every 5 years to update my train inventory values for insurance purposes. Should I ever need to file an insurance claim, I figure using a current guide for values would be advantageous.

I purchase one every year and I use it as a guide for my collection. It is a quick reference for me to show if I have a item or not. When you have a very large collection it is useful as it is very compact and easy to carry around.

 

To the old guys, it depends on what you collect. I know my friends pretty good and we all collect trains and see them differently. I now collect modern Lionel but I still love my MPC and Postwar.

 

I also use the pocket price guide to update my train inventory values for insurance purposes. Should I ever need to file another insurance claim again it will become useful. Because about 12 years ago I had a flood in my basement from sewage after a major snowfall and then the rains came. And my insurance co. used the prices listed in the guide books as to the value what was damaged and this was also carried over to the other collection books to my other items I collect.

 

I don't know if I would consider myself as a old timer since I have been buying trains for about 45 years. I don't have any Lionel standard gauge trains so come on with me and I will help lead you to buy that standard passenger train that you have been looking for. Are you going let me help you buy that train? So I have been collecting trains for years, that does not make me an old timer on some kinds of trains. And I have not missed a York meet since 1976.

 

quote:

 Should I ever need to file an insurance claim, I figure using a current guide for values would be advantageous.

 

Honest - yes, Advantageous - not necessarily, a lot of prices have fallen.

For me it was very advantageous for me to have the latest up to date price guides. It was what my insurance company used to settle my claim, they used the prices that were in the guides.

 

If you are a serious collector, an item is worth what you are willing to pay for it. 
If you are an operator, an item is worth pretty much a median price of what it has sold for in the last year on various auction sites.
What you can sell them for is relative to how much you are willing to wait for the right buyer.

If you enjoy collecting or operating, they are priceless.
If you are doing this as an investment, good luck.

Most of the bigger dealers make their money in volume sales. The longer you pay to store it, they less profit you make. There is really little to be made in reselling unless you are buying estates or bankruptcy liquidation a at fractions on the dollar.
Even then it is still hard work. A job. Not a hobby.
I find that checking out this forum is a better indicator of what things are really worth.
You just do not have the protections that you have on action sites.

Early on in the hobby I used to think the prices were accurate, after a few months I used the guide simply so I knew what trains were made so I could build a wish list. The prices are not very accurate as many others here have stated.

 

Jerry

 

The only "real world" price guide is a "advanced" eBay search for recently "sold" items. Do not give much weight to those sold as a "buy it now", because they may be too low (a grabbed bargain from a dumb seller), or too high (a dumb buyer).

Greenberg's Guide: How does it work?

Not very well, like the Blue Book for used cars. There are no photos in most Greenberg's Guides.

Trains shows and e-bay is the latest price guide.

What a person is selling the stuff for and what the buyer, will pay.

Cheers from Michigan

quote:

There are no photos in most Greenberg's Guides.

 

 

The pocket guides may not have photos, the books certainly do.
(I haven't purchased a pocket guide in years)

 

IMHO, The Pocket Guides are for Used Car Salesman..LOL. Greenberg's books show and describe each known variation at time of printing. If a person is looking for that one special piece at a time, buy the book and read it often. Above all else, do not be afraid to ask a trusted old-timer for advice before you buy. Most were around before the books became popular.

 

"Pappy"

Our (LHS) perspective offered about the published prices when a customer inquires about the book...

 

Sources used in assembling information of this sort typically have a vested interest in the most optimistic of projections. It's personal.  It's about money. 

 

Under the book heading "How are the values of products determined?" there is the reference to the "cooperation of many dealers and hobbyists, some of whom serve on our national review panel."  That doesn't sound like the average Jane/Joe making a purchase/sale at a garage sale, church basement trains show, 2-day estate sale, etc..   Coupled with the general population's comprehension and application of cosmetics ratings...TCA or otherwise...and it's relationship to "Good" and "Ex" price guide valuations, well.....good luck, pal.  

 

We (LHS) don't happen to buy/sell old trains as some shops do.  Our train sales are essentially new product...period.  OTOH, our staff is well aware of local, internet, and auction train sales, and we occasionally compare them to the guide book values out of curiosity, more than anything else.  About 50% is where our 'wet-finger-to-the-wind' finds reality compared to book.  And that's what we advise guide book customers who ask what they might expect....if their trains 'have been played with'...if they're lucky.

 

It doesn't take an Einstein to use the book....even though it's mostly about relativity rather than reality.

 

Just another opinion...FWIW.

 

KD

 

When I got back into trains in the early 90's it was the way to go. Now with eBay and online sales it's pretty much only good for tracking and letting you know about variations to look for. eBay past sales are a better way to judge price

 

If I am at York and I ask the seller for a price and the first thing he does is pull out the guide, it's time to move on

IMO the so-called “prices” of the trains listed in the book:

1. are on the HIGH side, not the low side, compared to what I’ve observed being SOLD at York and at other shows plus HIGHER than actual completed sales prices on that nameless auction site
2. Should only be used as a GUIDE for RELATIVE prices, not absolute prices (for example - relative prices among variations of a specific cataloged item).

 

Despite the claims by the authors in the introduction that the prices are updated every year, the prices change very little from one year’s edition to the next year’s edition.  But when there are price changes they are usually downward which does accurately reflect today’s trends!

 

They do add in listings of the most recently produced items each year and they did make a major change in 2013 by adding prices for post-war sets.

 

But despite these deficiencies there continues to be a demand for the book as they keep printing a new edition each year and the posted price of the book itself has gone up over the years (is now at $19.95).  But it’s available from dealers at York and other shows for much less.

 

And it’s interesting that each new edition comes out in October of the year previous to its date (like new cars) as the 2015 edition was for sale at York last month.   

 

That’s my 2 cents worth!

 

Bill