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An ambitious project and I wish them success as it will (in theory) dramatically improve transportation logistics to/from Alaska. Hopefully they'll double or triple-track it all the way out.

I'm a bit concerned about PTC operating in the middle of nowhere. What could possibly go wrong? I ride Metrolink to/from work and we get a PTC activation about once a month--none anywhere near a signal (it happened twice while we were moving out from the boarding tracks at LAUPT). The train sits for between five a fifteen minutes while the system reboots. On one occasion, they couldn't get it restarted and we had to board a later train (good thing were were still in the terminal at the boarding tracks). I don't know how it's tripped, but I'd be very nervous about PTC out in the location where the proposed route is going.

To be honest, I didn't even realize that the Alaska railway system was not connected to Canada's. I guess the question is given Alaska's relatively small population, does a rail link make sense? The oil from Alberta could be one factor (allowing it to get to Alaskan ports and shipped all over the world, for example), or oil from Alaska shipped down to the states via Canada, but it raises questions about viability and cost of shipping, the weather in Alaska and northern Canada has to make operations expensive, I have seen some of the programs about the Alaska railroad on Discovery and the History Channel, looks pretty tough. On the other hand, from what I hear shipping on the roads in Alaska is no picnic either, and it has to be pretty expensive to ship things to Alaska via truck or the other way round. 

To be honest I am a bit dubious, from what I have seen with the Alaska railway it is pretty heavily subsidized by the state of Alaska, and I don't know if a private enterprise could build such a line , have to pay off the cost of construction assuming they use bonds, pay for maintenance, and be able to ship at a competitive cost to other methods of shipping, which also would assume enough traffic to warrant it. Given all the factors, the relatively low population in Alaska, the cost of building it through rugged territory, the weather and its impact on operations, just doesn't seem viable to me. 

bigkid posted:

To be honest, I didn't even realize that the Alaska railway system was not connected to Canada's. I guess the question is given Alaska's relatively small population, does a rail link make sense? The oil from Alberta could be one factor (allowing it to get to Alaskan ports and shipped all over the world, for example), or oil from Alaska shipped down to the states via Canada, but it raises questions about viability and cost of shipping, the weather in Alaska and northern Canada has to make operations expensive, I have seen some of the programs about the Alaska railroad on Discovery and the History Channel, looks pretty tough. On the other hand, from what I hear shipping on the roads in Alaska is no picnic either, and it has to be pretty expensive to ship things to Alaska via truck or the other way round. 

To be honest I am a bit dubious, from what I have seen with the Alaska railway it is pretty heavily subsidized by the state of Alaska, and I don't know if a private enterprise could build such a line , have to pay off the cost of construction assuming they use bonds, pay for maintenance, and be able to ship at a competitive cost to other methods of shipping, which also would assume enough traffic to warrant it. Given all the factors, the relatively low population in Alaska, the cost of building it through rugged territory, the weather and its impact on operations, just doesn't seem viable to me. 

It seems to me that the traffic potential of Alaska itself has not much to do with the economics of this route.  It's essential purpose is to take the place of a pipeline that is no being built for purely political reasons.

As an investor, I'd stay far away from it because of that political risk.  If Canada were to overcome it's political/environmental problems and build the pipeline, that railroad would be in bankruptcy pretty soon.

The populated areas of Alaska are well served by railroad car ferries.

 

AGHRMatt posted:

An ambitious project and I wish them success as it will (in theory) dramatically improve transportation logistics to/from Alaska. Hopefully they'll double or triple-track it all the way out.

I'm a bit concerned about PTC operating in the middle of nowhere. What could possibly go wrong? I ride Metrolink to/from work and we get a PTC activation about once a month--none anywhere near a signal (it happened twice while we were moving out from the boarding tracks at LAUPT). The train sits for between five a fifteen minutes while the system reboots. On one occasion, they couldn't get it restarted and we had to board a later train (good thing were were still in the terminal at the boarding tracks). I don't know how it's tripped, but I'd be very nervous about PTC out in the location where the proposed route is going.

There is an important technical point that is being overlooked in these worries about PTC.  Adopting a new set of computer software to an extensive and complicated existing system, our railroad system in the 48 states, is a hazardous undertaking.  When the control technology is part of the basic design of the system, PTC shouldn't be difficult.

mlaughlinnyc posted:
Dominic Mazoch posted:

Does Transport Canada require PTC?

A long part of the line is in the U.S.

With PTC, they should not need lineside signals or wire circuits along the line.  big capital and maintenance saving there.  All communication could be wireless by design.

 

Malcolm Laughlin

Two issues:

All wireless can be hacked or jammed.  (Can happen in lower 48.)

How about GPS coverage that far north?

mlaughlinnyc posted:
bigkid posted:

To be honest, I didn't even realize that the Alaska railway system was not connected to Canada's. I guess the question is given Alaska's relatively small population, does a rail link make sense? The oil from Alberta could be one factor (allowing it to get to Alaskan ports and shipped all over the world, for example), or oil from Alaska shipped down to the states via Canada, but it raises questions about viability and cost of shipping, the weather in Alaska and northern Canada has to make operations expensive, I have seen some of the programs about the Alaska railroad on Discovery and the History Channel, looks pretty tough. On the other hand, from what I hear shipping on the roads in Alaska is no picnic either, and it has to be pretty expensive to ship things to Alaska via truck or the other way round. 

To be honest I am a bit dubious, from what I have seen with the Alaska railway it is pretty heavily subsidized by the state of Alaska, and I don't know if a private enterprise could build such a line , have to pay off the cost of construction assuming they use bonds, pay for maintenance, and be able to ship at a competitive cost to other methods of shipping, which also would assume enough traffic to warrant it. Given all the factors, the relatively low population in Alaska, the cost of building it through rugged territory, the weather and its impact on operations, just doesn't seem viable to me. 

It seems to me that the traffic potential of Alaska itself has not much to do with the economics of this route.  It's essential purpose is to take the place of a pipeline that is no being built for purely political reasons.

As an investor, I'd stay far away from it because of that political risk.  If Canada were to overcome it's political/environmental problems and build the pipeline, that railroad would be in bankruptcy pretty soon.

The populated areas of Alaska are well served by railroad car ferries.

 

Viability is certainly a question based on population, however pipelines don’t move durable goods, mining equipment, fresh vegetables, or people.  I think if such route existed and ran efficiently, the potential for shorter over water routes for goods from over seas could keep it in the money for a long time.  The ports of southern Alaska could see a huge boom.

Dominic Mazoch posted:
mlaughlinnyc posted:
Dominic Mazoch posted:

Does Transport Canada require PTC?

A long part of the line is in the U.S.

With PTC, they should not need lineside signals or wire circuits along the line.  big capital and maintenance saving there.  All communication could be wireless by design.

 

Malcolm Laughlin

Two issues:

All wireless can be hacked or jammed.  (Can happen in lower 48.)

How about GPS coverage that far north?

GPS is a global system operated by the U.S. Air Force.  The system is designed so that at least four satellites are visible at least 15 degrees above the horizon from any point on earth.

The probability of a catastrophic failure due to hacking is infinitesimally small.  In theory it is possible to hack a system and induce a spurious signal that might cause a wreck.  In practice, there are so many pieces of carefully guarded encrypted knowledge that would be needed from many places that such a problem isn't going to keep anyone from using wireless technology.


Farmer_Bill posted:

Are the Inuit into it? 

 

The Inuit are perplexed as to what a railroad is, Is it edible?, can it bring Jack Daniels to them, then No to it unless it can fit their needs. The Polar Bears on the other hand are for it totally,  seems the Inuit population has been going down the last century since the Russians left and they are hungry!

Last edited by John Pignatelli JR.

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