Psychology today

It might be that the auction bidders are not aware of the other choices available to them.

Assuming there wasn't something else at work (ie they liked the auction units better for some reason), I can think of a reason. It could be the auction units were significantly cheaper than the BIN for most of the time they were up there, so the people bid on them figuring they could get a better price at the auction , there are plenty of people who would do that to save like 5 bucks..and then the price started going up, their bid was blown by, they rebid.

You didn't say if/when the BIN sold, but if they sold before the auction finished, there is another explanation. If the auction was lower than the BIN at the time they sold (ie 130 then 140), let's say the bid was 120, people might have held out hope they could get the engine cheaper at auction, then after the BIN sold, the auction price got bid up. The thing is that people assume that with auctions the price steadily goes up, and it doesn't, they think "well, hasn't gone up much, going to get a bargain", and then wonder what the heck happened.

Seller feedback is a factor.  And if the feedback is 100%, sometimes I avoid an item that a "non train person" is selling even if it looks pretty good.  I don't need the hassle if they turn out to be a dumbo or a criminal.

You fellers have a pretty good observation on that auction/bin conundrum.  Yes, the auctions ended before before the BINs, which you would think would make the cheaper BIN more attractive. Of course there are folks way out in left field on prices, I noticed they have some of the biggest followers, either they are waiting to see if it sells so they can price theirs, or they want to see if someone is unaware enough to think it is a good deal.  Yes, you take a chance with a seller that is just getting rid of stuff, but that is where you find some treasures sometimes as they seller is not aware of an items worth.  I saw a fairly rare Rutland boxcar sell on Mercari for $20, when it had been selling for 10 or more times that elsewhere.  You never know if you will find a cheap picture that turns out to be a Picasso at a garage sale.  Same with trains on sell sites (and garage sales).

    I buy on the auction sites (the bay) a lot.   If I am looking for a particular car, particularly an old VG tinplate, I ignore any auction where the latest bids seem high, and I am often surprised at how high the price goes.  But, sooner or later, if I keep watching for a month or so, I find the same car in virtually the same condition, posted with a low but reasonable minimum starting bid, that has for some reason not received a bid yet and is due to expire in 1 or 2 days.   I put in a bid at the minimum starting bid, with a maximum bid ceiling of maybe $5.50 higher, and I very often win the bid.  Either nobody else has placed a bid or maybe one person placed a bid higher than mine and was beaten by my automatically raised bid.

     I don't know why this happens, but it is all about the timing of who out there wants to buy that car during any particular short time period, how much money they have, how much self-discipline they have, what their work or sleep schedule is, and whether they just recently bought the same car and don't want another one.

   Those factors are what really govern the outcome, rather than pure mathematics.  And, of course, luck is involved as well.

   I have also noticed that many O gaugers seek immediate satisfaction and may be knee-jerk buyers when they see what they want.   They are not interested in waiting a month to six weeks to get a car for $10 to $25 less.   This is totally understandable since this is supposed to be a happy hobby and not a "job" watching the internet, and their time may be very valuable.

   I am fortunate that I only work about 2 hours per day now, so I have plenty of time to check the bid board, several times during the day.

   Mannyrock

"I don't know why this happens, but it is all about the timing of who out there wants to buy that car during any particular short time period..."

I agree that it is all about the timing.  I have watched a couple things I had interest in that have no bids, and I am waiting till the last few hours, but things get in the way, and I miss the auction deadline, and there were no bidders.  It gets relisted, and this time there are 10 bidders.  Sometimes I think you 'seed' the auction if you bid near the end on an item that has gone 6 1/2 days  with no bidders, then they all dive in.  My favorite oddity is a BIN that does not get bought, the seller makes it an auction on the relist, and then it sells for more than the BIN on the first go round.  I look at what things have sold for, what Greenberg's book lists the range of prices, and I will go with a BIN if it is within my acceptable price range for the item from sell price research.   Another yard stick is Trainz because there items are listed, and if they don't sell the price increments downward.  When it reaches the right spot, someone will buy the item, and Trainz shows it as sold and its sell price.   I wanted a #2435 'Elizabeth' Pullman to complete a set.  They have sold between 28 and  80. Greenberg's says 44 to 113, good to excellent condition.  That was the one I missed not bidding on that had no bidders with a $32 start bid, and on the relist it sold for over 50.  After that, I was bidding on one that needed quite a bit of work, I stopped at 32, and it sold for 44.  Another BIN I was watching, the seller sent an email with a discounted price at 45 so I bought it, and it was in what I would consider pristine condition.  If there were train shows around here, maybe it could be purchased cheaper, but there are none, so cruising the online sales is my only way.

There seems to be very little rationality to auction behavior.  I used to sell a lot on eBay, and I sold the exact same items for widely varying prices, sometimes at a ratio of around 4:1 difference.  If you do a search for recent sales on eBay for a specific item, you'll see a similar pattern.

Lets not forget about shill bidding and bidders which place a last second bid when they feel they are not going to get a selling price they are happy with. On occasion you will see an item which sold for a high price relisted in just a few days.  The last listings I had on eBay were buy it now.  I look up completed auctions for what I am selling and set my price a bit below the top auction price and things sell in a week or two.  On the eBay community board I have often suggested a form of buy it now dutch auction where the seller could set up an automatic price reduction and the time interval. I don't remember the eBay official who told me that they had discussed that feature and decided that it might cut into the number of auction listing and they wanted to keep the auction format viable.                   j

I think there are 100's of reasons why the same item would have widely different end prices.  One of the reasons might be that there are 2 bidders who want a particular item and bid against each other.  One of them eventually wins.  So, if that item comes up for auction again, maybe now there is only the one bidder who wants it.

I've sold items on ebay that didn't go for as much as a previous auction.   Reasonably disappointing for me!

When I bid on an auction I bid the highest that I am willing to pay.  If I win, great!  If I lose, not meant to be.  I think some people get emotional about their bids.

@CALNNC posted:

...  I saw a fairly rare Rutland boxcar sell on Mercari for $20, ...

Never heard of Mercari.  I just checked it out.  Like similar sites, when I search for "MTH", I have to wade thru the 100's of results of baby clothes!

Yes, you have to be more specific, like 'MTH trains'.  Lionel does the same thing, it brings up a lot of Lionel Richie stuff.  And of course, how the seller words his ad can screw up the search too. I have found the 'make offer' restrictive though, especially when the low number you are allowed to offer is still way too high.  And some folks think a plain brown wrapper SP caboose Lionel made a half million of is worth 100 bucks.

Rather good article on why you shouldn't bid early on auction sites by a guy who is well regarded in the camera equipment world. When thinking back on some bidding I participated in, most of it rings true. I'm sure there are exceptions to the rule, but it seems like solid advice.

Premise of the article is early bidding:

1. Only increases the price you are going to pay as the auction site uses the bid to alert others and question you on whether you think you have bid enough - the psychology element.
2. Obligates you to buy something at a higher price if during the auction timeframe the same item is available for less.
3. Makes others think the item is more valuable than it is and draws attention to other bidders.

Mooner, All very true. I think I read that article years ago and I still hold true to it today. I hold off on bidding until the very last minute simply because of two things that were mentioned. One, I just bid up the price and some one will obviously outbid me, so now I've made my purchase (Hopefully) that much more expensive, and two, it gives me a way out in case I see something else that I want that is lower priced. The third item that is not mentioned is that it gives me time to really think "Do I really want this?" It does cut down on the impulse bidding/buying of items for me at least.

I go even simpler.  I use a sniping application and just put what the max I'll pay for a given item and then walk away.  If I get it I pay for it, if I don't, I keep looking.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

I go even simpler.  I use a sniping application and just put what the max I'll pay for a given item and then walk away.  If I get it I pay for it, if I don't, I keep looking.

I think that is the best approach, John. I tried using one of the sniping apps in the past and it didn't submit the bid. I have no doubt it was user error (me, myself, and I). What app are you using?

@Mooner posted:

I think that is the best approach, John. I tried using one of the sniping apps in the past and it didn't submit the bid. I have no doubt it was user error (me, myself, and I). What app are you using?

I use Gixen.  It's never failed to submit my bids.  I don't always win, but I'm in the game.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

I use Gixen.  It's never failed to submit my bids.  I don't always win, but I'm in the game.

Will give that a try, John. By the way, have learned a ton from your post and put into place a lot of things you've posted about. Thank you.

@JohnActon posted:

Lets not forget about shill bidding and bidders which place a last second bid when they feel they are not going to get a selling price they are happy with.

Shill bidding doesn't occur much anymore. Ebay has had sophisticated programs for quite a while now that detect this. Risky business, because sellers doing this get suspended from Ebay.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

There seems to be very little rationality to auction behavior.  I used to sell a lot on eBay, and I sold the exact same items for widely varying prices, sometimes at a ratio of around 4:1 difference. 

Exactly right. An old timer told me many years ago that Ebay is a crap shoot, and he was exactly right. If you think you can apply psychology and find rationality in how auctions work out, most of the time you're on a fool's errand. 

I like the way Cabin Fever auctions operate.  If there is a bid within the last two minutes it resets the time left on the item to two minutes.  I suggested this to ebay years (decades) ago and of course I got no response.  This feature totally eliminates sniping.

@Frank Mulligan posted:

I like the way Cabin Fever auctions operate.  If there is a bid within the last two minutes it resets the time left on the item to two minutes.  I suggested this to ebay years (decades) ago and of course I got no response.  This feature totally eliminates sniping.

Resetting the clock really only benefits the seller.  It gives buyers more time to bid and keep a bidding war active. Sometimes you run into a person that does not want anyone else to get a certain item, he will just keep bidding until everyone else quits.

Funny seeing a word like psychology used in discussing toy train enthusiasts behavior.

Well a major part of psychology is clinical and abnormal behavior.

@Scotie posted:

Well a major part of psychology is clinical and abnormal behavior.

On the other hand, and from the other direction, so is marketing which is fundamentally applied psychology.

Mike

@CALNNC posted:

OK you armchair shrinks, what mental process goes on when 4 Lionel 2350 NH loco's are for sale, 2 are auctions, two are a $130 BIN and a $140 BIN, shipping for all four is almost identical, and the auction locos sell for 15 to 25 more than the BIN's?  As to condition, they had about the same amount of scuff marks, one auction unit had a big chunk out of the front decal, all were decal fronts, the door frames did not have the trim paint into them, but the two auction models had the plain brown cardboard box they came in, as the only difference.  Is it the fun of the auction that drives folks to keep bidding when another option costs less?  I have a 2350 in that same plain brown box, and other than being printed on by Lionel, there is nothing special about it, other than it being a Lionel cardboard box.  Perhaps you also find it interesting to watch how things sell on auction sites, sometimes there is no rhyme or reason to it.

Well, I'm not a psychiatrist, but I do play one on this forum.    So I believe that people use alternative thinking (or brains) when operating in purchasing mode on auction sites.  Here goes my explanation of the substitution brain process used.

Dr. Frankenstein:  Now, that brain that you gave me was it Hans Dell Brooks?

Igor:  No.

Dr. Frankenstein:  Ah, good.  Would you mind telling me whose brain I did put in?

Igor:  And you won’t be angry?

Dr. Frankenstein:  I will not be angry.

Igor:  Abby someone.

Dr. Frankenstein:  Abby someone?  Abby who?

Igor:  Abby Normal

Dr. Frankenstein:  Abby Normal

Igor:  I’m almost sure that was the name.

Yeah, I think that's the process used.

Any questions? 

George

@Guitarmike posted:

Resetting the clock really only benefits the seller.  It gives buyers more time to bid and keep a bidding war active. Sometimes you run into a person that does not want anyone else to get a certain item, he will just keep bidding until everyone else quits.

An auction is for the benefit of the seller.    It is to get the seller the best price possible.  If someone keeps bidding until everyone quits then the person who wanted the item the most truly gets it.

I've fallen for this trap too often:  I'll bid on an auction, win, and think what I paid I got a fair deal.  But, after adding taxes, shipping, and a buyer's premium, it's no longer a good deal.

As I told my gf yesterday, I’m done trying to psychoanalaze you.  I’ll never figure you out so can we just call it even and try not drive each other crazy.

I’ll never figure out the buying habits of some of you O gauge nuts either but I hope you’re having fun.  Not a big fan of eBay, it’s like gambling, and you are bound to lose when in the moment you think you have won.

Cheers,       W1