If you plan on building a layout or already have one so that you can run your $2,000.00 Niagara then buying it now makes some sense. However, if you are going to put it on display or keep it "mint in the box" in your closet then I would say wait until you can run it and use the many features. In four years or five when you finish your education these will be selling for $700-900.00. Some will even be still "new in the box." The original Lionel Century Club Niagara had horrible drivetrain issues because the bean counters at Lionel thought plastic gears would work just fine. Do we know what the new drivetrain is made of? Will parts be available in 4-5 years when you may need them? I have been collecting and running trains for several decades and I am currently amazed at the amount of new "old stock" that continually appears at our local monthly train show. Last month a Lionel Joshua Lionel Cowan series Challenger that originally sold for $1,700.00 sold for $700.00. It was "new in the box." If you are as smart as you seem to be my advice would be to invest your $2,000.00 elsewhere, possibly in the stock market. At least there you have a chance to see your money grow. The Niagara will always be there when you are ready to run it.
Harry,
I enjoyed reading your post. If you are interested in learning more about behavioral economics you should read some of the books written by Richard Thaler, an economics professor at the University of Chicago. My favorites are "Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics" and "The Winner's Curse".
John
C.W., I get where you are coming from, and I know the importance of saving. However, this train is what I've been saving for, unknowingly, for the past few years.
Harry: You certainly don't owe me any explanation.
Grampstrains posted:The stock market just lost 2000 points and my retirement fund dropped $10,000. think I'll put my money in trains.
I think Jeff Bezos lost $5.5 Billion. A Billion here, a Billion there, before you know it you are talking real money.
Pete
Harry, you don't need to explain or justify your financial decisions to anyone on this forum lest yourself. If if what you truly want, do it, as you're the one who will live with the ramifications of the choice you make.
I am reminded of a guy I knew who would frequent the local train shop every day. He bought every F-unit MTH made (many with PS-1) and stored them for a layout he might build someday. Someday never came, and these early engines are worth a fraction of what he paid in the 90s. Plus, the technology is no longer current. I guess my advice is only buy what you like.....treat trains like the hobby they are, for enjoyment; they are seldom a sound financial investment. Buy the Niagara and run it on a temporary loop of track, this way you can enjoy it now.
Harry, your posting was very well thought out and written. It is postings such as yours that lead me to believe that much of the discussion about the demise of this wonderful hobby is unfounded.
At 71, I have been actively involved in the hobby for over 42 year as a adult in addition to the enjoyment of my Marx set during my teen years. I have seen times when items that you hoped to acquire in the future were no longer available. At your age, I admire your maturity and drive as well as your determination to go after what you want. Many postings here are suggesting you use you dollars more frugally but life is short. By all means, plan ahead but enjoy the trip. As a side note, most of the Lionel Vision Line of products have held value or even gone up in value.
Enjoy your new Niagara!!
All the best for a bright, happy and prosperous future,
Don
josef posted:
Increases in prices on engines I could probable understand or accept more so. More details or new options, whistle smoke, blowdown, etc.. But its the rolling stock I have the most complaint about in increase prices. Many years old, or dies bought from another manufacturer and the pricing almost doubles.
I agree with this, rolling stock is getting very expensive. I have thought about trying to produce my own rolling stock, maybe a project I'll tackle before going away in the fall. If I could get a good level of detail and make/sell it for a good price, I will certainly try to relieve the pain of you, Josef, and others.
turbgine posted:If you plan on building a layout or already have one so that you can run your $2,000.00 Niagara then buying it now makes some sense. However, if you are going to put it on display or keep it "mint in the box" in your closet then I would say wait until you can run it and use the many features.
I have a loop of 072 Gargraves track on the floor, but I do hope to get at least a table built before the Niagara comes in. Running something with that kind of value on the floor doesn't seem right. Either way, I could never resist the temptations and leave it mint in box for 4-5 years!
johnf posted:If you are interested in learning more about behavioral economics you should read some of the books written by Richard Thaler, an economics professor at the University of Chicago. My favorites are "Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics" and "The Winner's Curse".
John, I will certainly look into these books you have suggested. After reading a bit of the synopsis on "Misbehaving," it sounds a lot like what my teacher says about economics focusing on how people are assumed to act rather than how they do. I guess that's why "behavioral economics" is right in the name.
I have now added three new goals to an already busy summer. Wish me luck!
Grampstrains posted:The stock market just lost 2000 points and my retirement fund dropped $10,000. think I'll put my money in trains.
Lol - his drop is normal reaction to future increase rate increases and inflation!
The next drop to occur whenever....in the future will be the worst ever
experienced. The debt ratio's world wide are increasing....
by the way - one never knows what future prices will be. It is all a guess on past performance...no one cam perdition the future.
