Totally agree. Adding another unknown factor makes the decision making a lot harder.
Santiago: Agreed. Just not as much discretionary money floating about in our society. But.......Key displayed their new Cab Forwards at the Chicago March Meet, and they are stunning. Possibly the finest models ever imported.
mark s posted:It will be interesting to see how this auction goes. Similar items on Ebay don't sell at all, and at much reduced asking prices from initial offering by the original importer.
I find this somewhat true in my little corner of the world with brass train cars.
There are perhaps half a dozen or so folks looking at cars such as Pacific Limited cars. The cars do sell but the prices range from $250 to $350 which in many cases is not far off from what they were new 15 years ago. Appreciation? not hardly.
And the market is saturated, even for currently popular things like key or PL. A week or so ago a Key PRR F3 A and B unit combo fetched $1300. Top shelf model that cost twice that new. Ditto for PL cars.
Surely a few guys buy multiple pieces but just how many of the same thing do you need on the layout before your Pac Limited train looks no different than Intermountain or Atlas?
And some premium brass cars that were $400-$600 years you can't give away.
Surely a good time to buy but buy cautiously.
Rule292 posted:.......just how many of the same thing do you need.....
Truncate to that and stop.
Someone just blew thru my bids on the '32 MP cars..... Robbie???? or a certain mp fan in Texas.... I'm not sure. These are frankly, a mediocre build. The sheet brass is really thin and the doors wafer like. I do have a pair and will have to sit at that. Back to Robbie's comments: the Key diesels have been selling on ebay [or not selling] for around $1200-1500. Frankly, a laughable number as they far exceed plastic models in detail etc. I buy what I like and am not venturing to speculate on future pricing---other then to postulate that any future production prices will be very high relative to today's secondary market prices.
BradA posted:Someone just blew thru my bids on the '32 MP cars..... Robbie???? or a certain mp fan in Texas.... I'm not sure. These are frankly, a mediocre build. The sheet brass is really thin and the doors wafer like. I do have a pair and will have to sit at that. Back to Robbie's comments: the Key diesels have been selling on ebay [or not selling] for around $1200-1500. Frankly, a laughable number as they far exceed plastic models in detail etc. I buy what I like and am not venturing to speculate on future pricing---other then to postulate that any future production prices will be very high relative to today's secondary market prices.
Nope not me on the MP Brad. One and done !!! 
My guess is that Brad knows this market.
Not me either Brad.. I am on some other items. Trying to stay clear of your style of stuff.
Brassmonger is working hard to front run this auction... seriously aggressive in his recent listings. Bob2, thanks for the compliment---
i have my bids in and will have to wait it out. Erik, you are a passenger guy, I am into the freights. So nice sets to be had and those engines are splendid-- the paint on the rock island was well done. I wonder who did the work?
the pl NYC cars all show like Clemons work. The MP and SP are not..
bob2 posted:My guess is that Brad knows this market.
Nope, he hates brass train cars! 
It's great to see interest in premium O scale items.. and even more that brass fellas like Erik and Brad are not only buying and painting but building layouts.
Brass ain't dead yet. Brasstrains.com just sold two OMI UP turbines for $4k and $6k.
And the prices are slowly building on the Seacrest auction.
I had the oppertunity to visit the collection again last weekend, more videos will be posted soon. :-)
Rob
"Brass ain't dead yet. Brasstrains.com just sold two OMI UP turbines for $4k and $6k."
I saw those, but hadn't been back to see if they sold. All I can say is Wow! I don't know who their clientele is, but they extract some of the most ridiculous high number out of many of their brass offerings.
The 3 Unit Turbine was new. But John Keil's #5 is on eBay right now with some weathering for $2695.00. I don't care for the weathering, but it can be fixed by Lee Turner. And I know some collectors want pristine and new, but wow. $6K for a 3 Unit Turbine is almost twice what the last new one brought (last year) on eBay and it was new too. I thought Brasstrains did well when they sold a Coal Turbine for $6K a few years ago, but they've outdone themselves this time.
The #61 turbine with special tender is rare, with only 15 produced by OMI back in the 80's, but I've never seen one bring more than about $3K. Owned one back in the mid 90's.
I guess it just proves there's a butt for every seat on the bus.
BH
up148 posted:.......there's a butt for every seat on the bus.
Well, maybe with some Lysol and a roll of paper towels, 
Bear in mind Brass Trains , Bill Davis etc sell worldwide, the european and far east collectors pay considerably more for models they want. Japan still sells product outside the US.
Rule292 posted:Brass ain't dead yet. Brasstrains.com just sold two OMI UP turbines for $4k and $6k.
And the prices are slowly building on the Seacrest auction.
Here's another train of thought (no pun intended): Key just brought in a pile of cab forwards going for circa $7500 a pop. The prices for those turbines don't look so bad compared to that.......and how long until some importer does another run of them, if ever, and if so at what cost???
Simon
"If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch".
I guess that makes me a Pup. 
Sorry John. Love your photos. Roo.
Kohs & Company has the Big Blow GTEL as a twinkle in his eye. I was talking with him about it at the march meet and the price on that one should be less than the Big Boy he's building at $6K
If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.
Just because you can doesn't mean you should.......
Matt Makens posted:Kohs & Company has the Big Blow GTEL as a twinkle in his eye. I was talking with him about it at the march meet and the price on that one should be less than the Big Boy he's building at $6K
TIME is more of a factor than money here. Considering the number of times the Big Boy has been done, it is hard to believe there is a market for yet another.
Simon
rattler21 posted:Glacier Park, Key, Oriental, Overland, Pecos River, Precision and Wasatch. If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch. John in Lansing, ILL
Of those names, only Glacier Park, Precision and Key are actively importing Locos.
Simon
Matt Makens posted:Kohs & Company has the Big Blow GTEL as a twinkle in his eye. I was talking with him about it at the march meet and the price on that one should be less than the Big Boy he's building at $6K
When I ordered my 1st and only Kohs model (Challenger), about 10 years ago, George mentioned the Big Blow had never been done right and he was thinking of doing it. But, I don't see it happening in my buying lifetime. Although the OMI model has some inaccuracies (all brass models do) it's a pretty darn good model of this prototype.
Butch
Hey Guys (that means you Brad)
All roads lead to the auction,and judging from the pre-bid prices,the hobby is still alive. In regards to high prices paid recently on websites,perhaps not all is as it seems? One thing is for sure,the era of reasonably priced new brass models is gone as quotes from Korea are way up (boxcars 300 and up/diesels 1800 and up/steam 2500 to 3500 and up) . Perhaps we witness the end of the brass era? Sunset may chug along allowing for their economy of scale with the 3 rail items,but how many other models will be done at these price levels is a good question. That may be why were seeing prices driven up on certain items,but 2X the going price for UP turbines seems a little suspect.......
brassmonger
(multum in parvo)
ASM148 posted:(multum in parvo)
I knew there was a reason my mom made me take Latin...
Dear Bill,
Welcome to the OGR Forum!!! Your immense background in your business of importing, collection purchases and selling of same, and having a pulse on the O scale brass community I hope will enlighten us.
You have come along way from Domino Lane in Philly !!!!! Regards, John
ASM148 posted:That may be why were seeing prices driven up on certain items,but 2X the going price for UP turbines seems a little suspect.......
To get these kinds of prices BT must have a group of followers who avoid O scale shows, eBay, other quality dealers and information sources that are plentiful in today's world. Or, they are so reclusive they are willing to pay about anything to make their acquisition simpler. The selling price for the #61 turbine is high, but they don't come available every day, the 8500 HP turbine at $6K borders on ludicrous. I guess it's good to have zealots on your customer list.
BH
up148 posted:ASM148 posted:That may be why were seeing prices driven up on certain items,but 2X the going price for UP turbines seems a little suspect.......
To get these kinds of prices BT must have a group of followers who avoid O scale shows, eBay, other quality dealers and information sources that are plentiful in today's world. Or, they are so reclusive they are willing to pay about anything to make their acquisition simpler. The selling price for the #61 turbine is high, but they don't come available every day, the 8500 HP turbine at $6K borders on ludicrous. I guess it's good to have zealots on your customer list.
BH
Or, these are people that have adequate amounts of disposable income to render this entire debate totally moot as well as totally irrelevant to the average O scale modeler.
mwb posted:up148 posted:ASM148 posted:That may be why were seeing prices driven up on certain items,but 2X the going price for UP turbines seems a little suspect.......
To get these kinds of prices BT must have a group of followers who avoid O scale shows, eBay, other quality dealers and information sources that are plentiful in today's world. Or, they are so reclusive they are willing to pay about anything to make their acquisition simpler. The selling price for the #61 turbine is high, but they don't come available every day, the 8500 HP turbine at $6K borders on ludicrous. I guess it's good to have zealots on your customer list.
BH
Or, these are people that have adequate amounts of disposable income to render this entire debate totally moot as well as totally irrelevant to the average O scale modeler.
O scale is a big umbrella but from my humble observations there are probably more brass buyers than there are buyers of much of the ca. 1940's-1960's parts and kits that seem to proliferate O scale meets.
Rule292 posted:mwb posted:up148 posted:ASM148 posted:That may be why were seeing prices driven up on certain items,but 2X the going price for UP turbines seems a little suspect.......
To get these kinds of prices BT must have a group of followers who avoid O scale shows, eBay, other quality dealers and information sources that are plentiful in today's world. Or, they are so reclusive they are willing to pay about anything to make their acquisition simpler. The selling price for the #61 turbine is high, but they don't come available every day, the 8500 HP turbine at $6K borders on ludicrous. I guess it's good to have zealots on your customer list.
BH
Or, these are people that have adequate amounts of disposable income to render this entire debate totally moot as well as totally irrelevant to the average O scale modeler.
O scale is a big umbrella but from my humble observations there are probably more brass buyers than there are buyers of much of the ca. 1940's-1960's parts and kits that seem to proliferate O scale meets.
I was thinking more of the bell curve population in between those 2 groups, the average modeler.
Additional thought re Brassmonger's comment about brass pricing: we have gone through a long, severe recession since 2008-2009, a very slow, grinding recovery and, seemingly, a current improved condition. During that period, prices and wages didn't budge. Now, pent up demand is re-surfacing, so brass prices are going up - - - maybe even in tandem with house prices !
The Seacrest collection will start out hot and heavy but it remains to be seen with 2 more auction dates where prices wind up, as Bill pointed out new imports can only go up, Key imported only 40 cab forwards [per there website] and this trend will continue as these ultra detailed models keep getting one upped by the next import. these are small factories hand building the models, as long as their dollar number is met, unfortunately this number gets less models built each time. The end result is obvious a small group of collectors/modelers willing to participate at this level.The used market is a whole other story. JMO
Heck, the bidding on the Oriental gas electric at $550 is already over the expected estimate.
well of course it is. that's the way it works. that's all they are estimates. the fools show up on Saturday.
All motel rooms sold out within 100 mile radius from auction site.
mark s posted:Additional thought re Brassmonger's comment about brass pricing: we have gone through a long, severe recession since 2008-2009, a very slow, grinding recovery and, seemingly, a current improved condition. During that period, prices and wages didn't budge. Now, pent up demand is re-surfacing, so brass prices are going up - - - maybe even in tandem with house prices !
We saw the same price drop on brass models after the dot.com bust of 2001. Took years for brass prices to finally make a come back. Rare and sought after models 1st and then a slow rise of the more average. Some never came back and never will, many 60's, 70's and 80's imports from Japan are in this group. The high price days of the 90's was something to behold. USH locos bringing $2000-3000 and today finding it hard to crack $1000. Our hobby has always been supply and demand driven.......................so you have to decide, how bad do you want it?
BH
Some random thoughts. Some buyers are at an age where instant gratification is much more appealing than waiting for something that may or may not happen. If a project IS announced, will there be enough interest for it to be built? How long will it take to come to fruition? What will it cost? Presuming it has been done before, will it be as good as earlier models?
As for Brass Trains, there is probably more in the way of security when buying from them than some other sources, and sometimes the item is just RARE. The photography is excellent, and you can really see what you are getting. You are paying for their service as well as the item.
Add to that, this isn't really a hobby for rational thinking persons! 
Simon
I have never been to one of these auctions, it'd be neat to go see it probably.
Regarding auctions, to heck with them. Having been aced out a number of times in the closing seconds, I have better uses of my time. Show me a model with a fixed price and I know I will actually get it. Find the build up of anticipation and the crash are too annoying. I will leave it to others who are better at "the game".
Bob Harris posted:well of course it is. that's the way it works. that's all they are estimates. the fools show up on Saturday.
All motel rooms sold out within 100 mile radius from auction site.
The heavy hitters are coming, they want to see what they are bidding on!
mark s posted:Regarding auctions, to heck with them. Having been aced out a number of times in the closing seconds, I have better uses of my time. Show me a model with a fixed price and I know I will actually get it. Find the build up of anticipation and the crash are too annoying. I will leave it to others who are better at "the game".
Unlike Ebay no snipers here, the bidding does not stop until the highest bid is in. [emotion over rules common sense] at this point the buyers premium tends to be forgotten. just saying !
hibar posted
Unlike Ebay no snipers here, the bidding does not stop until the highest bid is in. [emotion over rules common sense] at this point the buyers premium tends to be forgotten. just saying !
Buyers Premium.....One of the great all time RIP OFFS. The buyer is getting NO service from the auction company, so why should he pay a premium? Charge the seller and be done with it, but GREED prevails. Figure the buyers premium right into the price you are willing to pay.
Simon
