The Value of Trains

Can't answer in a train context. But I am a ham radio guy. And longtime collector of old radios. That caused me to do some research and what I see is pretty basic to all collecting. Collecting follows the real estate market. If real estate is up, so is the value of your collection of anything. If down, same.   In hard times the ONLY things that sell are the VERY BEST cream of the crop items. Behind all of this is our demographics. We're old. We all want to move to warm weather. Some of us are making the big LAST move. All the people that used to buy our collections are in the same boat--they want to sell, not buy! Bottom line? Have FUN collecting and enjoying your hobby.  But don't count on it to pay for your retirement home. And for heaven's sake don't leave it all to the kids for them to have to deal with. That's just lazy. YOU deal with the disposal before you go. You collected it so now you have to sell it. Fair is fair. Either that or consign it to the vultures and smile as they collect their 50%. I apologize for sounding cynical. But that's my take on it.

all the best!

don merz

I agree with most of what Don Mertz says.   However, I don't agree that dealers that buy collections are "vultures".    A lot comes into play here if we look at realistically.    First these are the same guys we buy our stuff generally.   They are not hobbyists, they are a business.    But as a business, they provide  us a service and a lot of enjoyment.    In order to do this, they have to stay in business which requires that they sell things for more than they buy them, so they can feed their families and pay their mortgages.   

Now when they buy a collection, much as we like it, there are dogs in there and there are good pieces.    Often when they buy a collection, they sell off half or so at the first show or relatively quickly.    then they end up selling bits and pieces and hauling the remainder around for years.    They may not get their money back out of the purchase for a year or more while the seller got theirs up front.   And then they finally start to make a profit on it.    Then in many states they have to pay personal property tax on all that inventory - - until it is sold.    Plus they need to pay for the store front if they have one, and any advertising they do to move the stuff.    When they take it to shows, remember they are not doing this for fun, they are doing it to earn a living, they have to pay for the hotel rooms and tables and travel costs.     For us the travel to a show is a fun part of the hobby, but for a business it is an expense even assuming they enjoy what they do.    The cash to pay for all that has to come from someplace.   

So I don't fault the honest dealers when they buy for 50 cents or less on the dollar estimate.     

Don, I have no plans to use my train collection, if it can be called one, to finance a retirement.  If I did, I'd be broke in a month.  I guess my intent was to show how things loose their value.  Not only in dollars but in value as an institution.  Younger people don't entertain like we do or our parents did.  They don't see a need for things like china.  Certain traditions are becoming just a note in history.  Something people once did but no longer see a need to do nor do they have the time to.  

Our generation, Baby Boomers, rediscovered trains as we became adults and were starting families.  Most of us, myself included, wanted all of those things we wished for in all of those Lionel and American Flyer catalogs as kids but could not have.

I know there are younger members here.  How many and how old they are, I haven't a clue.  Will they loose interest and rediscover trains at some point as they ride the roller coaster of life ?  Who knows ?    

In a nutshell, the "collector" mentality has not passed well from the older generation to their children.  Supply has far exceed the demand in nearly every nostalgia market.

Enjoy what you have and be satisfied.  I am certain we're not taking it with us.

Times change guys - stuff goes in and out of style...

My parents were Antique dealers - I spent my childhood doing traversing the east coast doing higher-end antique shows.

Back then - Country was king...Folk Art, Quilts, Early weathered furniture with old blue paint...

You can't give that stuff away today.

"Industrial" and "Mid-Century Modern" are the new looks...and that's what sells.

So on the flipside - an old metal stool that once went to the scrapper - is now worth 100 bucks.

Has the offshore manufacturing of newer models including reissues of pre and post war items, devalued our precious originals ?

It doesn't matter whether the "reissues" of prewar and postwar items were manufactured in the USA or offshore. They certainly have devalued the originals.

But that is not the only cause of falling toy train values. As others have already written, as a group, younger folks are not interested in collecting anything, therefore the prices of all but a very select few antiques and collectables are falling.

Then there is "O" gauge model railroading. That aspect of the hobby is shrinking too. Trains have not been in the forefront of people's lives for many years, folks interests lie elsewhere. Train layouts take up too much space. And the cost to get going in the hobby is excessive. 

I think there is some irony in Dans comment - with regard to China being made offshore.

Made in USA China is now hurt by "offshore" manufacturing...such that, the China is now made in...China!

One could argue that's just China bringing the jobs back home...making China great again...etc.

Lets face it value is 2 pronged here; for us personally there is an emotional value factor especially if the trains are pre or post war trains, we had them as kids or were handed down from our parents or grandparents. The memories do weigh heavy with most of us and are etched into our childhoods.    HOWEVER in the marketplace value what the market will bear or what a buyer is willing to pay, and lets face it as of this writing its a buyers market.....

Whether your a collector, have a display, or operate, ENJOY YOUR TRAINS and don't worry about value. Keep the value propositions where they belong on your real estate and financial assets.  Just my opinion

Steve

Why should I sell all my trains before I die?

I would sell them to Trainz or something like that. So would the children. So No monetary gain or loss.

But then I have nothing to keep me occupied. Then I go bother the children. They are OK with me visiting once in a while, but 24/7? Keep your trains until you are unable to enjoy them. Then call trainz just like your children will when you die.

   I think command control is the big reason value has dropped on some common conventional locos, numbers being up on units and down on actual collectors is secondary. Those entering the hobby aren't necessarily aware it won't cost an arm and a leg for a vintage train as well, and not familiar with the various mechanisms and wanting something reliable...well, new usually fits that criteria.

   I also wonder about the buying trends of piece collectors vs operators now too. 

The first two replys pretty much nailed my points, but I think real estate effects certain collections from growing large, but I don't feel it ever had a substantial effect on MY sales, but that was comics & collectibles; pretty portable..

  I wasn't a vulture, I was an owl explaining myself as I was tearing you apart. 

 Sometimes I bought at value just to have the "right" things to be SEEN. Inspiring stops to look and conversation and that leads to other sales like magic.

Hot items pay, everything else is eye candy that sits. 100% of value is rare. Seldom can yoy buy and raise a price that day. Speculation deep into the future is risky. I'd pay 80% for stuff that just might sell that day, to maybe 5%...5% seldom goes over well, but those are really just mercy buys, bought like a "mystery bag" at a church bazaar hoping you missed a winner, because I'm only going to roughly estimate a collection quickly. If it is a gold mine, I'm not going to risk losing a chance at having a hand it, you'd get a fair offer.

Supply vs demand vs my rent & time and I wasn't getting rich.

   But I was having tons of fun and did have a few runs of stuffed wallet from numbers alone

 But barely middle class stuff mostly, no real money. 

   They want cream & white distressed furntiture today. My sister is pedaling stuff like that right now, I mentioned the blue she had done it the 80s-90s, she said cream & white laughingly

When you want to buy trains they are expensive. When you want to sell trains they are cheap.

In the event of my demise instructions to my wife are to let the kids (3) pick out what they want and then whole sale them out.....

Those entering the hobby aren't necessarily aware it won't cost an arm and a leg for a vintage train as well, and not familiar with the various mechanisms and wanting something reliable...well, new usually fits that criteria.

All a matter of perspective. IMHO, new trains cost an arm and a leg.
What does a new traditional piece of rolling stock cost?
How about an engine or a piece of track?

Many people will buy a train for their Christmas tree. Some of them will buy "O" gauge. A lot of them will buy a cheap battery operated train, or maybe even a Lego train.

Of those that buy a Lionel set, some percentage will buy a few extras over the next few years.
A tiny percentage of them will get into "O" gauge model railroading.

IMO trains are expensive today.  Before the BTO market appeared, you could always get in on blow out deals.  I think those days are gone.  I had gotten good deals on Lionel houses back in the day 10 houses for an amazing deal of $165.00!!!  I also have gotten great deals on Lionel set s, Harry Potter set for $125.00, The 0-6-0 set with the dumping log cars for $150.00, etc. I have also gotten Lionel GEVO ES44AC for $600.00 out the door.  Today just to purchase a plain ES44AC without the flashing lights is going to cost you $500+, an it's plastic.  I know companies and dealers have to stay in business but the prices keep going up and up.  There might be value in these trains we buy, but as I have stated in the passed, if you like it and have the money for it, go and get it.  Life is to short, and why not enjoy it.

Don Merz 070317 posted:

...We all want to move to warm weather.

Ummm...no.

But don't count on it to pay for your retirement home.

Would anyone here who thought that their trains would "pay for their retirement home" please raise their hand?  

I apologize for sounding cynical.

 Right.

The way I see it is that.When lionel had the o gauge market pretty much all to them selfs.The price of some of these trains where out of sight.Then when an new company came along and shook things up in the market.The coming of the internet what was looked up on is so rare is not any more.And there is so much of it.But the people who spent a lot of money buying locomotives and packing them away.In the 80 and 90s thinking they were going be worth a gold mine.Are in shock nowadays because the trains are not bringing as much as they thought.Me buy what you want if to high the price just wait a while.And look around there is always some one willing to make a deal.

Would anyone here who thought that their trains would "pay for their retirement home" please raise their hand? 

I don't and never have.
However, I do know people who banked on having the liquidation of their stuff provide income for their retirement.

I will not sell my trains before I pass on, although my nearest heir now is my nephew he will be in charge of disposing my trains. If he keeps them, sells them or trashes them, I will not care. 

I also have not moved to warmer climates, I'll stay here in the NE and enjoy the change of seasons, the occasional snow storm and the cold weather of which I love. 

Won't live to see it but curious what the modern trains of Lionel, Mth etc that are just being made now will be worth 50 years from now ?

If i had to guess not much other than a decoration of times past.

But thats just a guess.

I tell my kids.....'If you want to collect something....collect chocolate....you may get to eat it!!'

IE...buy what you want or love.....for no other reason. If my kids sell off my stuff after I am gone....they may get 1/10 what I paid.....if lucky.

Don Merz 070317 posted:

Can't answer in a train context. But I am a ham radio guy. And longtime collector of old radios. That caused me to do some research and what I see is pretty basic to all collecting. Collecting follows the real estate market. If real estate is up, so is the value of your collection of anything. If down, same.   In hard times the ONLY things that sell are the VERY BEST cream of the crop items. Behind all of this is our demographics. We're old. We all want to move to warm weather. Some of us are making the big LAST move. All the people that used to buy our collections are in the same boat--they want to sell, not buy! Bottom line? Have FUN collecting and enjoying your hobby.  But don't count on it to pay for your retirement home. And for heaven's sake don't leave it all to the kids for them to have to deal with. That's just lazy. YOU deal with the disposal before you go. You collected it so now you have to sell it. Fair is fair. Either that or consign it to the vultures and smile as they collect their 50%. I apologize for sounding cynical. But that's my take on it.

all the best!

don merz

 

The man hit the nail on the head, and tells it like it is. The "get rid of it yourself" advice is spot on. To do otherwise is both selfish and lazy.

Ger rid of it yourself? Nonsense. The chances of our trains residual value dropping to nothing is slim. If our kids want whatever that value might be then they can deal with the disposal. Otherwise the estate can pay to have it all hauled away. (Plus they may want some of the stuff)

Of course it would be a good idea to equipt them to be able to deal with it, starting with a clear inventory. 

But I think all this is a different topic, one that does get discussed here periodically .

cngw posted:

Don Merz 070317 posted:

Can't answer in a train context. But I am a ham radio guy. And longtime collector of old radios. That caused me to do some research and what I see is pretty basic to all collecting. Collecting follows the real estate market. If real estate is up, so is the value of your collection of anything. If down, same.   In hard times the ONLY things that sell are the VERY BEST cream of the crop items. Behind all of this is our demographics. We're old. We all want to move to warm weather. Some of us are making the big LAST move. All the people that used to buy our collections are in the same boat--they want to sell, not buy! Bottom line? Have FUN collecting and enjoying your hobby.  But don't count on it to pay for your retirement home. And for heaven's sake don't leave it all to the kids for them to have to deal with. That's just lazy. YOU deal with the disposal before you go. You collected it so now you have to sell it. Fair is fair. Either that or consign it to the vultures and smile as they collect their 50%. I apologize for sounding cynical. But that's my take on it.

all the best!

don merz

 

The man hit the nail on the head, and tells it like it is. The "get rid of it yourself" advice is spot on. To do otherwise is both selfish and lazy.

Both of you guys are wrong, it is neither selfish or Lazy because I will run trains to the day I die and leave them to my nephew to deal with how he wishes. I have told him he could put them all in a dumpster for all I will care. Now if he is smart he will sell them or use a auction house. 

Keep running,

Dave

One thing you or your relatives can do to dispose of unwanted trains is to donate them to a train club or charity.  My club will take any and all train donations.  We keep some to run but we sell most of them to raise money.  We spent $21,000 to paint our building two years ago.  This kind of expense cannot be met with dues alone.  

We will even go to a person's home and take apart a layout at no charge.  The club is a 501 c3 and the donor can take a tax write-off.

NH Joe

as someone who i guess is considered young in this hobby, a fresh 29. this thread is a tad sad. I loved and still love some of the conventionals; but after using dcs and hearing the sounds i am sold on that stuff. I doubt it will last though like pre war.  As a collector of Godzilla, horror and some this and that;  I can sell it for 75% of what i got for it. Sideshow/Xplus if your interested in what i collect. 1 time a year xplus puts out a gigantic godzilla at 43-50 some centimeters whereas as normal is 28-30 cm. it goes for 300-500 plus shipping from Japan. I bought extras of the last few and made a few 100 selling them actually. It is so hard to find second hand trains I like for cheap but when i go to sell, cant hardly get interest at selling it at half. Idk  why i went and type all of this, idk..  just cause I agree and am interested in this topic. I spent maybe 900 on  a GN R2 articulated like a 2 months ago. After running it and seeing it, Im not a fan of articulated. well i like them but would rather collect southern and a few odds and ends. I cant sell it for 500. so I agree seems they are always high to buy but always sell low. I also agree collecting interests goes and come in spurts

I enjoy my train collections.  When I croak, they will no longer be of use to me, but until that time I shall enjoy them.

Those that survive me can junk them, donate them, give them to a friend, or sell to Trainz.  Won't bother me a bit.  I would like to see the Cab Forwards go to a museum, but I am afraid there are no museums that would know what they are.  Our local museum didn't even want to look at them.  Most are prize-winners.

Those few that I have sold?  I am embarrassed to say that they have sold at between 5 and 10x what I thought they were worth.  I just get these offers now and then . . . I always tell the purchaser what I think they are worth.

I turned down two - an exorbitant offer for a Varney ten wheeler and a $350 offer for a $25 caboose.  The first was to protect the purchaser, who seemed a bit frazzled, and the second because I liked the caboose and did not need the bucks.  Maybe I will will it to him.