Anyone watch the Stout auctions yesterday and today? Insane prices!

I missed yesterdays auction and watched part of todays auction.  I had already bid on several items but when bidding started this morning, I wasn't in the ball game.  I like Stout Auctions and really fun to watch but when they sell higher quality pre and post war trains, they always bring a premium.

They don't auction the stuff you find "under the tables" at train shows so your not going to buy the items "on the table" for "floor prices".  If your gonna play....Your gonna pay.

I have bought some nice items from them in the past, and I do know much of the stuff offered this week is pristine. However, I just can not see how these kind of prices are justified. There are a lot of nice items right here on this forum, that go for very reasonable prices. The same with Ebay, although you have to be careful there. Well, whatever, it is fun to watch these online auctions, but I hope our whole hobby is not headed that way, pricewise.

Jeff

I find it interesting that every time there is one of these auctions somebody posts how insane the prices are.  Is this the new normal everyone is talking about

I followed both auctions and even though I bid on a few items I came up short since I was not willing to climb the spiral staircase.  That being said, I did not see the results of this Stout auction as being materially different from the last half dozen or so; perhaps more.    People are willing to bid high on this stuff because they want it and can afford it (maybe)   Not all of the items were in pristine condition either.  There were numerous post-war pieces which I thought fell into the operator class category but they still commanded bids outside of the trending price arc which they show for each item.  These were the ones I bid on and like I said I still came up short.  Despite what many would have us believe post-war collectin' ain't dead yet.

The human-chimpanzee brain, being extremely greedy and overly competitive by virtue of one million years of evolution, goes crazy during any type of auction.

Ever see the film from the 1960s, of the chimpanzee who was placed in a room with about 100 bananas lying around?  He proceeded to try to pick up each and every one of them and carry them out, even though 5 or 10 would be far more than he could eat, and he when berzerk when they kept falling out of his arms and he couldn't carry them ALL!

Prices seem to be trending up.  My area is MPC and I’ve noticed prices for aluminum passenger sets and the scarcer cars jumping noticeably over the last year or so.   Recently on eBay a couple of sealed early ‘80s starter sets all cleared $400 with room to spare.  

Given the condition of the trains that are often with their paper, I do not see any insanity. High, maybe, with the buyer's premium, but not 'insane'.

Bob

I was entertained. Things went north so quickly that I didn't even bother to bid. My impression is much of today's stuff was a notch below previous auctions, but it was bringing similar money to the top shelf stuff.  Most of us are spending more time at home and we're not spending as much on gas, eating out, etc., so the money is burning a hole in some folks' pockets. 

@Mallard4468 posted:

I was entertained. Things went north so quickly that I didn't even bother to bid. My impression is much of today's stuff was a notch below previous auctions, but it was bringing similar money to the top shelf stuff.  Most of us are spending more time at home and we're not spending as much on gas, eating out, etc., so the money is burning a hole in some folks' pockets.

I think you are correct. Plus, there have been no train shows for a good while, and none to come for a while either.

jeff

The cost of new trains is through the roof. A new box car for $90? It appears the cost of doing business in China/Korea had gone up up up.

That affects the whole market.

Personally, I am most impressed with the fact that we broke the $3000 mark for a Visionline Big Boy on Thursday. Overall prices are indeed trending up vs. this time last year (pre-covid). I'm sure it's a mix of factors, but whatever they are, it is driving the market.

Thanks to everyone who made these sales great. Buyer's, consignors, bidders, and spectators. We appreciate you all and the attention that you give to the company.

Thanks all!

Derek Thomas

(COO Stout Auctions, Indiana / President of Rail & Road Auctions)

Yes, I remember the Nov. auction prices as being really high too, at least as far as my thinking goes. Oh well, to each his own.

Jeff

I think like everything these days either lower production at plants because of Covid or other outlets being restricted , think no train shows or stores with restrictions has caused prices on the available outlets such as auctions or mail order to tic upwards. I've noticed decidedly higher prices on Ebay on many items that a year ago went for $20-$30 now going for $50 and up. Has anyone priced lumber lately? That $10 piece of OSB is now $40 at HD, 2x4s at $6, Homasote at $35. There are undoubtedly other factors playing into this also but the bottom line is everything is going up faster than it would in a normal year.

Jerry

Sorry about that - I copy/pasted the wrong graph for the 21 November - I couldn't get it to delete so I just deleted the entire post and re-posted here.

Here are the correct plots - the conclusions are still the same - not much difference - as noted - the higher numerical average for the 21 November is due to a couple of extreme lots which do not characterize typical - for that - the median - the values are the same.

21 November

19 February

Alright!  Box and whisker plots right here on OGR!!  Robert - your point is well taken- that there's not much difference in the averages/medians and only slightly in the distribution of outliers or extremes

One other thing to keep in mind is the trick inflation plays on all of our memories (doesn't really apply in going from Nov to Feb, where the inflation factor is only 1.003).  For example, something that sold for $10 in 1950 would cost $110 today (factor of 11 just due to inflation).  Inflation from 2000 to now is ~1.5 ($10 to $15) and from 2010 to now is 1.2...  To some (maybe a large) extent, inflation may not be the right concept, since these are auctions of things no longer made (perhaps even rare) - as opposed to everyday commodities like a loaf of bread or pair of shoes - so the prices are gonna be dictated by how much some buyer wants the object.  Seems to me that's the psychology of auctions, if you are the seller, you are hoping that the 'deep pockets' folks show up and get into a bidding war.

Pandemic prices.

Ebay realized prices have also gone through the roof. I saw a boxed Lionel 260 Bumper go for $212.