Concrete, gasoline and Greenberg's (again)

Patience is the key, If you want a good or fair price.  Not going to train shows puts you at a disadvantage.

The price guides are a guide.  They have always been a guesstimate.  A more reliable source of value would be ebay sales.  Check ebay for COMPLETED sales WITH multiple bids (more than 2 or 3).  That tells you the more probable value at the current moment.  A lot of listings are overpriced.  Also there are people who list multiple things hoping to get lucky on just a few.

I got two caboose similar to that style at this past York. A Union Pacific and a Santa Fe for $25 each.  So maybe the Seaboard is rare or in high demand

A fair price is what you are willing to pay for an item that you want as a function of availability.  Case in point, party of the first part complained asking price for a certain freight car was more than he had paid for other freight cars but he needed just this one to complete his set and could not find it elsewhere.  While party of the first part hesitated, party of the second part bought the item for the asking price and then party of the first part could not buy the item anywhere at any price.  Another opportunity surely will come along, but party of the first part meanwhile must cool his heels.

What, me worry?

It's only worth what somebody is willing to pay. Train prices, like gasoline are insane right know. Good deals are hard to find these days.

The Guides serve a purpose.  First, they give you a good deal of information that you probably did not know.  Second, they are pretty good on relative values (this item compared to that item). Finally, if you count the hours that you pour through them, I am certain you do not have cheaper entertainment.

@aussteve posted:

Patience is the key, If you want a good or fair price.  Not going to train shows puts you at a disadvantage.

The price guides are a guide.  They have always been a guesstimate.  A more reliable source of value would be ebay sales.  Check ebay for COMPLETED sales WITH multiple bids (more than 2 or 3).  That tells you the more probable value at the current moment.  A lot of listings are overpriced.  Also there are people who list multiple things hoping to get lucky on just a few.

I got two caboose similar to that style at this past York. A Union Pacific and a Santa Fe for $25 each.  So maybe the Seaboard is rare or in high demand

Just a note. If using eBay, check the “Sold Items” box. “Completed items” also lists sales that ended without a buyer and displays the too-often ridiculously high asking prices.

I use eBay’s sold items as a gauge of current pricing often, but I recognize that it only goes three months back, so it is prone to notable fluctuations over time.

Thanks for the kind replies.  Yes, I have used the sold listing on Ebay to see what things have gone for to dampen my urge on something.  It does not normally work out to mention to a seller, that their  $240 opening bid on a tenderless loco might be a bit high when historically they have sold for 100 or less, and those engines had the tender.  So, I just pass on by, but have you noticed that some items that are grossly overpriced, have many 'watchers'?  I think folks are wanting to see if whatever it is will actually sell, one, to see if they could sell theirs for that, and two, to see if somebody is fool enough to buy it.  But my favorite conflict to observe is any item on bid, versus and identical item with a BIN, and I have seen this more times than not, the auction will sell at a higher price than the fellow with the BIN.

As others have said prices depend on the seller and buyer coming to an agreement. The greenberg guides are just that, they let you know what they think is the range and for most things at least it is a starting point. Ebay sales (actual sales) are more dynamic than greenberg, if the price there is much higher than greenberg it could mean there has been a surge in demand for it. One note, if there has only been 1 sale in fairly recent times, that price may not be realistic if it is much higher, I have bought things where I paid more than it likely was typically sold for because I really liked it and it was there. If you think the price is too high, wait and see what happens over time, and see if that is the 'new normal' or if it was a fluke.

It is why train shows are better indication, because you can walk around and see what dealers have it for (and also realistically what you can offer for it). I looked at one standard gauge engine at York, prices varied from like 160 bucks to almost 300 for the same engine in roughly the same shape. You see that with other items as well, kind of proves there is no collusion. Doubtful there is any kind of collusion, one of the nice parts of trains is that being so anti social, very hard for them to come together to do anything *lol* (obviously, folks, said with tongue firmly in cheek).

Gasoline prices don't generally vary all that much with some exceptions. Independent dealers often charge less because they can buy gasoline from a variety of sources, when you are a franchise station (Exxon, Sunoco, BP, etc)  you have to buy from them so the price is going to be pretty much fixed (and among the major brands the price doesn't differ all that much). On the other hand you do see gas stations with ridiculously high prices, like they are next to an on ramp to a major highway and figure people will be desperate enough to pay the price, or a franchise station whose real business is car repair but they have to sell a certain amount of gas to keep their franchise.

Concrete? As they say, fuggedaboutit.......

CALNNC, I think you're correct  about the auction process.  There is no easy solution for your dilemma.  I can see how difficult it would be to find what you want at a good price from the internet only.  The prices on that Seaboard caboose looked very high to me.  I prefer the older mpc-LTI trains and PS1 engines, so there tends to be more dumping of those items by sellers.  I have also purchased items from members on this forum with very good success.  I strongly prefer to see the item in person and see it run if there is a test track.  Other than OGR, I don't buy trains online.  I've driven from south Texas to the York train show several times.  I just shop for good deals and I don't have any must have items.  However if you only want a couple of specific items,  then paying a higher online price is definitely cheaper than traveling to a train show in hopes of finding it.