Couldn’t have said it better myself: Amtrak

A note on the airlines’ free rides & subsidies  

   The airlines do take a BIG hit for both cancellations & delays. After all possibilities are exhausted and we have to cancel, there’s up to 180 hotel rooms (on my plane) to be purchased if it’s a maintenance related problem.  If it’s weather related, no hotels, but the ripple affect of people not getting to where they’re going is present for days...I always feel like a target with the uniform on.
  A big factor for us is on time performance.  The DOT monitors our out and in times, and levies fines for repeat offenders.
  I get the unique pleasure of visiting my chief pilot if I’m ONE minute late leaving, and the DOT records it.  If I’m more than fourteen minutes late arriving, again the DOT records it.  This is why the forty minute flight from JFK to DCA is blocked for two hours...              

And don’t even get me started on the “tarmac delay” ruling from a few years ago, that states a HUGE payout is due to every passenger affected.  Now we just cancel, blame the weather, and everyone gets screwed...but it avoids the fines.  

  Lastly,

   The airlines pay a LOT of money in landing and gate & parking rental/fees at every airport we operate to.  Updating and maintaining their respective terminals, etc.  The major metropolitan cities have eye watering levels of fees associated with operations   Then there’s the ‘slots’ available for departures & arrivals to/from that airport that are both limited, and expensive to maintain.  This is a big reason the smaller airlines (Southwest or Spirit) can usually only operate in smaller cities  

  While the technically ‘free’ FAA is a taxpayer burden, their role in the airline’s operations are limited.  The FAA’s purpose is everyone’s safety.  From the manufactures, to the airports, ATC, and qualifications/standards for everyone involved.  Even the guy outside raking his leaves under the approach path in to the airport.  Don’t believe me?  Look at some underdeveloped nations & their safety records.  

Not a rant, just my .02

Tom

Ok, Amtrak is a money-losing proposition.

There is some new thinking on national debt vs. GDP.  The thought is that the old ratios, which predicted immenent financial collapses, the collapses never occurred. The current US national debt to annual GDP ratio is 102%, according to the WSJ  Sept 2, 2020. Japan's ratio is 230%, has been for maybe 30 years, and they still have not collapsed.  Much of our debt is held by China, the UK, and Japan, as opposed to the WWII era, when almost all debt was held by US citizens. Guess the thought is that we could welch on our debts, and it wouldn't hurt America. Plus we control our currency and can produce new currency as needed.  Believe all of this falls into "Modern Monetary Theory".  See "US debt at a record high,  but the risk calculus is changing", by Jo Craven McGinty, in todays WSJ.   Other commentators have said "this will work.......until it doesn't" !!      I am only an observer, biting my nails.

The USA has military personnel and bases in 160 countries, of the 195 named countries on earth.  We spend $760B directly  on our military, additional sums for the CIA, which is a closely aligned activity to our military plus we provide military aid to a fair number of countries. It all totals around $1T per year. Perhaps that is an area of expenditure worth scrutinizing. All the while we are building bombs and weapons, waging utterly pointless wars around the world and there are members of our political class and commentariat who are thumping the tub for a military confrontation with China over Taiwan, and Russia over Ukraine........all the while, China is building roads, hospitals, ports and railroads all over the world. The Chinese just opened a 7500 mile railroad to the UK, linking Europe directly to China for trade. We are rapidly heading to the dustbin of history.

Think Amtrak is the least of our problems.

In 2020 we had the outbreak of the pandemic and forced closures to deal with it.  The panic in Washington and in the corporate press came not with the small business closures,  the 47,000 infected citizens, rising death, and historic job losses.  The panic came when the stock market closed more than 35 percent off its peak, continuing an epic slide that had started a month earlier.

The Federal Reserve announced on March 23 that it would start direct purchases of corporate debt  an unprecedented rescue of corporate America and Washington passed the "Cares" Act to bail out the investor class instead of the citizens.

Between March 23 and April 30, the Dow skyrocketed nearly 6,000 points, a jump of nearly 31 percent, creating over $7 trillion in capital wealth.  The April gains were the largest one month jump since 1987.

The same month, 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs.

Since then, the stock market has risen over 30 percent, corporate bond funds have recovered, and companies have saved tens of billions in borrowing costs. Thanks to this massive government subsidy, large companies like Boeing, Delta Airlines, and Carnival Cruises were able to avoid taking money directly — and sidestep requirements to keep employees on — by instead issuing bonds.

One year into the pandemic, it's not clear whether the $54 billion the U.S. Treasury used to prop up airlines during the pandemic was the right move, or just an expensive gift to a politically favored industry.

@New Haven Joe posted:

The British tried this.  It hasn't worked out.  Maintenance by the government was just as bad as most infrastructure projects are.  This is the reason we have bad roads and other infrastructure.  Governments worldwide don't do maintenance well because it isn't a priority for voters.  

The private trains that run on the government tracks in Britain are also bad.  You can look online at all the complaints about poor service from the various British railroad companies.  NH Joe

It isn't just governments.  Many private companies looking to cut expenses to boost the bottom line will cut maintenance as well.  How many times have we recently seen comments about railroads cutting maintenance costs on this forum.  (rhetorical)  It is a long standing problem.  There are complaints about the effects of railroads failing to adequately maintain their lines from the 1800s.  There are similar complaints from private toll road companies.

@mark s posted:

Much of our debt is held by China, the UK, and Japan, as opposed to the WWII era, when almost all debt was held by US citizens.

The public holds over $21 trillion, or almost 78%, of the national debt.

Well, I never expected my post to draw such interest! Thank you all for a wonderful discussion. My point really was: can't Amtrak simply put that "penalty" into a travel bank for use on a future trip? Living here in DE, the NEC is practically in my back yard and I have taken the Acela on many occaisions. That would be a perfect place to use a "credit," especially as the railroad is trying to entice passengeres to return.  But for those who still think about the comforts and ease of the train ride, consider this: on my many Acela trips from Wilmington to New Haven, why should the bathrooms on a train that has originated in DC and stopped only once in Baltimore be so filthy and smelly in Wilmington? It brings me to think of the old Yiddish adage that trying to make Amtrak "work" is about as useful as cupping a corpse. Of course, I have two senators and now a president who think Amtrak is more important than a Tastykake French Apple Pie!

@bigkid I basically agree with you. but let's not tread into the political. I don't want to see this thread get yanked. And that goes doubly for you @mark s. We can all agree that everything the gov spends money on doesn't have to turn a profit and leave it at that.

To return to the topic, looking at the map Amtrak released, from where I am sitting in NE PA, the lines from Scranton and the Lehigh Valley to NYC look like a no brainer (to me) for a relatively small investment. There have been plans, proposals and studies for bringing rail service back to the area almost from the day they ripped up the tracks on the Lackawanna cut off in about 1985. And yet nothing gets done. Right now it is a bus or a drive to Dover or taking in your car. The bus is basically an monopoly and expensive and its far cheaper for one person to drive to Dover and take the train than drive in. The problem is it takes forever.

Since this crosses three states, maybe this is the perfect route for Amtrak (ie. the fed gov) to get involved in. Personally I am obviously rooting for this.

@Bill N posted:

It isn't just governments.  Many private companies looking to cut expenses to boost the bottom line will cut maintenance as well.  How many times have we recently seen comments about railroads cutting maintenance costs on this forum.  (rhetorical)  It is a long standing problem.  There are complaints about the effects of railroads failing to adequately maintain their lines from the 1800s.  There are similar complaints from private toll road companies.

I know you said it was rhetorical, but I'll answer anyway.  It's not maintenance based, but right here in South Florida, privately run Brightline suspended service once the pandemic hit and has yet to resume service a year plus later, constantly pushing back the re-start dates.  Publicly run Tri-Rail stopped service then resumed service like all other transit providers.  Transporting people no matter the cost is doing a public good.  Closing up shop because of an economic downturn is what private companies do because profit is the only motive.  Some folks here have soured on Brightline because of this and wondering if in the future they plan on stopping service whenever things turn bad.  Same thing applies to bus lines.  If a certain route provides a critical service to its users, a publicly run transit agency runs the route.  If the ridership doesn't reach a certain level, a privately run company will be quick to cancel the route faster than a public company would.  Note, public transit bus routes do get pulled up.

@FlyPlanes-PlayTrains posted:

A note on the airlines’ free rides & subsidies  

   The airlines do take a BIG hit for both cancellations & delays. After all possibilities are exhausted and we have to cancel, there’s up to 180 hotel rooms (on my plane) to be purchased if it’s a maintenance related problem.  If it’s weather related, no hotels, but the ripple affect of people not getting to where they’re going is present for days...I always feel like a target with the uniform on.
  A big factor for us is on time performance.  The DOT monitors our out and in times, and levies fines for repeat offenders.
  I get the unique pleasure of visiting my chief pilot if I’m ONE minute late leaving, and the DOT records it.  If I’m more than fourteen minutes late arriving, again the DOT records it.  This is why the forty minute flight from JFK to DCA is blocked for two hours...              

And don’t even get me started on the “tarmac delay” ruling from a few years ago, that states a HUGE payout is due to every passenger affected.  Now we just cancel, blame the weather, and everyone gets screwed...but it avoids the fines.  

  Lastly,

   The airlines pay a LOT of money in landing and gate & parking rental/fees at every airport we operate to.  Updating and maintaining their respective terminals, etc.  The major metropolitan cities have eye watering levels of fees associated with operations   Then there’s the ‘slots’ available for departures & arrivals to/from that airport that are both limited, and expensive to maintain.  This is a big reason the smaller airlines (Southwest or Spirit) can usually only operate in smaller cities  

  While the technically ‘free’ FAA is a taxpayer burden, their role in the airline’s operations are limited.  The FAA’s purpose is everyone’s safety.  From the manufactures, to the airports, ATC, and qualifications/standards for everyone involved.  Even the guy outside raking his leaves under the approach path in to the airport.  Don’t believe me?  Look at some underdeveloped nations & their safety records.  

Not a rant, just my .02

Tom

The FAA's role in airline operations is not limited, in the sense that they are involved in deciding things like how far apart planes can take off and land, the density in an air traffic corridor that directly affect operations. They are responsible for auditing airlines maintainence and safety protocols, they also are responsible for certifying aircraft for flight readiness. The FAA also runs the air traffic control system which is pretty expensive, in terms of personnel and the equipment itself, and airline fees and whatnot don't even begin to cover the cost of this. Not saying it isn't as it should be, just want people to be aware of the hidden subsidies that could directly be charged. Same way with landing fees and the gate fees and the like, they don't cover the full cost of operations at the airports, as expensive as it may seem. It is much like the trucking industry, the amount of wear and tear they cause to the roads, the cost of maintainence associated with them, is way, way more than the fees paid through diesel taxes and road use taxes (put it this way, take a look sometime at roads that only allow car traffic, like the parkways in NYC, and compare that to roads that allow trucks...it is visually easy to see, not to mention the constant road repair on roads that handle trucks...not surprising, given a fully loaded truck is 40 tons and a typical car is 1.4-2 tons.

Again, doesn't mean I think the airlines should be paying more or paying for the full cost of the FAA, just saying that it enjoys subsidies, and the public enjoys airfares that are relatively cheap because of it.

@mark s posted:

Ok, Amtrak is a money-losing proposition.

There is some new thinking on national debt vs. GDP.  The thought is that the old ratios, which predicted immenent financial collapses, the collapses never occurred. The current US national debt to annual GDP ratio is 102%, according to the WSJ  Sept 2, 2020. Japan's ratio is 230%, has been for maybe 30 years, and they still have not collapsed.  Much of our debt is held by China, the UK, and Japan, as opposed to the WWII era, when almost all debt was held by US citizens. Guess the thought is that we could welch on our debts, and it wouldn't hurt America. Plus we control our currency and can produce new currency as needed.  Believe all of this falls into "Modern Monetary Theory".  See "US debt at a record high,  but the risk calculus is changing", by Jo Craven McGinty, in todays WSJ.   Other commentators have said "this will work.......until it doesn't" !!      I am only an observer, biting my nails.

The USA has military personnel and bases in 160 countries, of the 195 named countries on earth.  We spend $760B directly  on our military, additional sums for the CIA, which is a closely aligned activity to our military plus we provide military aid to a fair number of countries. It all totals around $1T per year. Perhaps that is an area of expenditure worth scrutinizing. All the while we are building bombs and weapons, waging utterly pointless wars around the world and there are members of our political class and commentariat who are thumping the tub for a military confrontation with China over Taiwan, and Russia over Ukraine........all the while, China is building roads, hospitals, ports and railroads all over the world. The Chinese just opened a 7500 mile railroad to the UK, linking Europe directly to China for trade. We are rapidly heading to the dustbin of history.

Think Amtrak is the least of our problems.

That was true, and China and the Saudis do hold a lot of US debt, but by far the biggest holder of Treasury debt is the social security administration. SS is not a locked box, it isn't a trust fund per se anymore. Back in the early 80's they increased SS contribution rates on businesses and individuals, to create a 'buffer' in the fund for when the boomer generation started retiring, basically taking in a lot more than they needed. What happened was when the government started running large budget deficits in the 80's onward (to give you an idea, in 1980 the budget deficit was like 50 billion), in a couple of years from then it was like 250 B). What happened was the government used excess funds in SS to cover for the deficit (so remember when I said the deficit was 250m? More like 300M, but the 50m or whatever they borrowed from SS masked the deficit), they actually count SS funds they 'borrow' as tax revenue. So every time they took the excess, they left treasury notes as an IOU. The T notes pay interest, which goes to SS, but if that was excess, got siphoned off. It is why SS owns so much debt.

@mark s posted:

Plus we control our currency and can produce new currency as needed.  Believe all of this falls into "Modern Monetary Theory".  See "US debt at a record high,  but the risk calculus is changing", by Jo Craven McGinty, in todays WSJ.   Other commentators have said "this will work.......until it doesn't" !!      I am only an observer, biting my nails.

There are essentially 3 ways for a nation to approach debt: 1 reduce fiscal deficits; 2 achieve higher economic growth (i.e., GDP outpaces debt); and 3 using central banks to print money and monetize debt (MMT proponents likes to focus here).

The funny thing about theories like MMT, is that it fails to take into account historic realities of attempts to print away debt and how citizens and businesses react when in an overly indebted nation.  Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Germany tried to print their way out of debt post World War I and it ended in epic hyperinflation.   At a certain point, a nation's debt is no longer attractive at near zero interest rates and investor's (creditors) require higher rates of return - which becomes a higher and higher annual expenditure.  Raising taxes beyond a competitive level causes those with means and corporations to flee to lower tax jurisdictions (at least under current tax law) - i.e., smaller tax base.  A long but interesting read: https://www.nationalaffairs.co...dern-monetary-theory

The current Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has been quoted saying, “The U.S. debt path is completely unsustainable under current tax and spending plans,” and that it is “something that most people don’t understand and I see very little evidence of concern about it.”

I don't think the US is at risk today, but it's definitely moving in the wrong direction and unsustainable if it continues.  Maybe Amtrak/HSR isn't a hill to die on, but what I am saying is we should demand more from our government spending (across the board) because it does matter in the long-run.  One of my economics professors used to say, "In the long-run, we're all dead," which is true, but hopefully we can be good stewards of the greatest nation the world has ever known so we can pass it on to the next generation.

One of the fundamental notions out there I think is that somehow government is a business, it isn't, for a lot of reasons. Businesses operate to make money for their investors and as such, are very parochial, their orbit is basically "what is good for my business ie the owners and the investors". Yeah, I studied management too, and they loftily talked about "stakeholder management", but especially these days, that is as dead as the quill pen. The government by its very nature is supposed to do things that benefit the country, state, locality, they basically are an entity with many, many stakeholders. The government example funded a lot of basic research, one that didn't have ROI built into it, something the private sector is quite loathe to do. The government can and does provide services where the private sector won't (and often attempts to privatize what had been a government service fail because of the gulf between the 2). Government wired rural areas for electricity because no utility would do it, the same way today they are paying to lay in fiber to rural areas, because the private companies would never get back the cost of wiring a farm 10 miles out of town. Sometimes the private sector works with the government to provide an essential service, the bus I rode every day is a private company but they are paid by the state to operate it, along with what I pay in fares.

Sometimes the private sector benefits from government activity. Think of Conrail, they took over bankrupt, failed railroads (and not without a lot of squawking and complaining that freight railroads in those areas weren't needed, trucks were the answer, etc). The government from what i know ultimately lost money on conrail if you factor what they sunk into it in infrastructure repairs, modernizing freight operations, dropping routes that simply made no sense, yet they ended up selling a railroad to private companies that thanks to all that spending, is profitable for them. If private companies do things better, how come they didn't buy any of the bankrupt railroads? Even assuming still going railroads had a crack in their belly and couldn't, how come businesses that were doing well couldn't do what the government did, buy the lines, invest money, and turn it into an efficient,money making operation? The answer is simple, a private company would look at the cost and say "no way I can get ROI on it". The government looked and said "trains in that region are critical infrastructure, there are people who depend on those trains to ship stuff or the people who work for the ralroad for a living", said they couldn't let it fail, and ended up leaving a working business that the private sector would buy.

So okay, what about Amtrak and passenger rail in general? It comes down to the same thing, who are the stakeholders and what is the value of keeping it versus dropping it, but more importantly, rather than look at it as it is today (kind of like Conrail c1975), looking and saying "what could it be?". The current Amtrak model in many ways is lacking, because no one as far as I know has come up with any plans for it that to me tell me they ask that question. Among politicians, some could care less, others are of the mindset that 'trains are the past, the car is freedom, airlines are the best thing since sliced bread', others quite honestly are kind of rail fans who see Amtrak as a kind of giant layout (I appreciate that thought, of course). On the one hand you do kind of have to be a dreamer to ask "what can trains do?", you have to be pragmatic and say "there are places they make no sense", and put it together, something no one has done. Envisioning a nationwide high speed rail system that can compete with airlines is pie in the sky, envisioning a rail system that fits into current and future needs , HST where practical, regular in other places, that meets needs makes sense. Eisenhower sold the interstate highway system to skeptics as a civil defense need,which shut up the crowd who said "let the states or private industry do it, it is a boondoggle", knowing full well that as a civil defense system it was bupkus, his administration knew the economic benefits of it (I am sure Charley Wilson, ex head of GM, was dreaming of scores of GM buses, cars and trucks using those roads).

@JD2035RR posted:

There are essentially 3 ways for a nation to approach debt: 1 reduce fiscal deficits; 2 achieve higher economic growth (i.e., GDP outpaces debt); and 3 using central banks to print money and monetize debt (MMT proponents likes to focus here).

The funny thing about theories like MMT, is that it fails to take into account historic realities of attempts to print away debt and how citizens and businesses react when in an overly indebted nation.  Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Germany tried to print their way out of debt post World War I and it ended in epic hyperinflation.   At a certain point, a nation's debt is no longer attractive at near zero interest rates and investor's (creditors) require higher rates of return - which becomes a higher and higher annual expenditure.  Raising taxes beyond a competitive level causes those with means and corporations to flee to lower tax jurisdictions (at least under current tax law) - i.e., smaller tax base.  A long but interesting read: https://www.nationalaffairs.co...dern-monetary-theory

The current Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has been quoted saying, “The U.S. debt path is completely unsustainable under current tax and spending plans,” and that it is “something that most people don’t understand and I see very little evidence of concern about it.”

I don't think the US is at risk today, but it's definitely moving in the wrong direction and unsustainable if it continues.  Maybe Amtrak/HSR isn't a hill to die on, but what I am saying is we should demand more from our government spending (across the board) because it does matter in the long-run.  One of my economics professors used to say, "In the long-run, we're all dead," which is true, but hopefully we can be good stewards of the greatest nation the world has ever known so we can pass it on to the next generation.

Your economics professor is a plagiarist, that quote came from John Maynard Keynes when arguing with economists who said that the great depression would end itself in the long term, so no need to go into deficit spending.....

The reason we don't have hyperinflation is because we didn't print more money, we just keep printing debt. As long as people are willing to buy that debt at a reasonable interest rate, you don't get into what is called crowding out, where to attract buyers they have to either sell the bonds at deep discount or a higher nominal rate, to bring the yield to where people will buy it. Treasury debt, because it is considered solid gold, is the base rate for any kind of debt..and you get the idea.

without getting into specifics, we will definitely need to deal with the debt and deficits in the long term. eventually if we ever equal spending to revenue with taxes, over time the debt as the economy grows will make that less and less onerous.  In the meantime, though, given the nature of the federal budget, you also can't ignore real world needs. Our infrastructure by any measure is in bad shape in this country, it is a pressing need, and what I would say to that is "if we can't afford it now, what will happen when we face bridges collapsing and roads unusable and pipelines broken and electrical grid failing, how much will it cost them?". You can always argue against something, plenty of those on the left and right called the space program a boondoggle, yet it paid off in so many ways, in ways few realize (you wanna know how much of modern tech wizardry was created by kids back then inspired by the space program? Not to mention the tremendous number of products that came right out of the space program and the research it generated?). It is kind of like saying "the car needs an oil change, but I won't use a credit card to pay for it, I'll wait until I have cash" and the engine seizes because the oil got too dirty and clogged the oil ports.

Not saying that spending a ton of money on Amtrak is that kind of spending, just saying that the notion that because of deficits you shouldn't spend money on anything is very narrow focus, we can't just strip everything to the bone so we can balance the budget and then 10 years from now say "okay, now we can spend". What I really wish is that decision making was being based on real data and real information, not on what people believe it is, any kind of policy, whether it is spending, tax revenue/revenue reduction, etc.

@bigkid posted:

Not saying that spending a ton of money on Amtrak is that kind of spending, just saying that the notion that because of deficits you shouldn't spend money on anything is very narrow focus, we can't just strip everything to the bone so we can balance the budget and then 10 years from now say "okay, now we can spend". What I really wish is that decision making was being based on real data and real information, not on what people believe it is, any kind of policy, whether it is spending, tax revenue/revenue reduction, etc.

Did you see the pie charts I posted above.   How many times does corporate owned media ever show anything like that when they invite an endless stream of talking heads arguing opposite sides of verifiable data.?  Whomever is the loudest is telling the truth.  Whomever they let have the last word is telling the truth.  "He said, but she said.............................................."  is an actual substitute for the "data and real information" you are referring to.   "We'll agree to disagree" is a substitute for data.   "Listen to what so and so said........[roll tape]". The more simplistic the story the more newsworthy.

Try this:

1.  Pick any cable news hour long show.

2.  Make two columns on a piece of paper.  Label the left column "Words, Tone, and Optics" and the right column "Substance".  Put a check mark in the appropriate column for each segment of an hour show.

3.  After the hour is over compare the two columns.

John

California Zepher East bound

Absolutely beautiful Clem.  But tell me, where's the middle rail? 

John

Clem - Byers Canyon?     Can't beat the scenery.

The bottom line is neither Amtrak nor the USPS will ever be profitable because Congress will not allow them to be.  Amtrak was profitable for a couple of years when they were running mixed trains but the private sector whined to Congress so they were told to stop.  My favorite Amtrak trip was and always will be on the 3 Rivers from Chicago to Philadelphia.  33 cars long (limited by the railroad) but only 4 of them carried passengers.   Shippers loved it.

And so long as the USPS has to continue rural delivery they won't be profitable either.

@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:

Rich,

I'm in general agreement, but I'd like to replace your 100 mile limit with 250.

Living in the Detroit area, and having frequent business in Chicago (prior to the pandemic), I'd much rather take the train.

My late father-in-law used to talk about the days, in the late 50's and early sixties, when a flight between the two cities took only 45 minutes takeoff to touchdown, with lunch or dinner served en-route.  In those days getting into and out of airports was quick and easy so, at most, between driving in at the departure end and driving out at the arrival end you probably had an hour to an hour and fifteen minutes.

When skyjacking reared it's ugly head the need for security added substantial time to this -- about an hour on the departure end.  Airport growth and congestion, including moving the rental car lots and parking to remote sections of the airport grounds, added another 30 to 45 mins, on each end.

Last but not least, in the aftermath of 911 we've all been advised to arrive at least two hours early for domestic flights.

All of this makes our "high-speed" link between Detroit and Chicago competitive with air travel, as long as there are few freight delays.  When bad weather threatens rail is clearly ahead.  I've beat my boss home from Chicago many times when he elected to stick with his airline tickets as thunderstorms or snowstorms came through.

DigiHUD for Android -- 111 MPH (107 avg), just west of Kalamazoo, MI; 7/19/2017

Here's an important point for business travelers:  The in-the-air time above 10,000 ft. while flying (when you can get out your laptop and get some work done while traveling) is only 30 mins max.  You might get another 30 mins in on the ground while waiting for departure.

On the train I'm working the whole way, aside from a little break here and there -- for a better-than-airline meal and a beverage.

Is is cost effective to the country, and to the Midwest, to offer this service?  I don't know but I'll take the train to Chicago, and back, any day.

Mike

Good news today seen in the Detroit News, following on this thread, and on my comments back in April:

  Amtrak gets OK for 110 mph trains in an (additional) part of Michigan

Another chunk of the Detroit to Chicago route will be upgraded to 110 MPH as of 5/25/2021.  Travel time is coming down -- the more the better.

M.H.M.

@rdunniii posted:

And so long as the USPS has to continue rural delivery they won't be profitable either.

Are you suggesting that any rural residents just don't need mail service?

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Are you suggesting that any rural residents just don't need mail service?

I wouldn’t be surprised if the USPS switched to post office boxes on more rural routes.

I used to ride Amtrak several times per year between northern Indiana and either Washington, DC or Harrisburg.  Generally, the trains were on time, the service was decent and the staff was friendly or at least tolerable.  The last trip I took was miserable, the staff was very rude on the return leg from Harrisburg to South Bend and the trip took over 26 hours because of a Norfolk Southern derailment on the line west of Pittsburgh.  I can fly between Ft. Wayne and Philly in 90 minutes, non stop.  I will probably not take the train again.  There is only one train each way each day between those points and you have to board the outbound after 10pm which is just not convenient, especially if it is running late.  Amtrak seems to be adding and subtracting routes every few years depending upon who is in office.  People just cannot rely on something that is here today, gone tomorrow.  Just my opinion.

Yes.  Isn't it odd that Amtrak is celebrating it's 50th Anniversary this year.  They, and the host freight railroads, certainly must have annoyed a huge number of people in the same fashion over that time.  You'd think that it would've been gone by May of 1972.

(I've noticed that people have become increasingly impatient as time goes on -- no more room to cut a little slack here or there.  One bad day and your out.  "The last Ford I bought, a 1981 Crown Victoria, was a piece of junk.  I haven't bought another one since, and I won't ever again" ...)

M.H.M.

@rdunniii posted:

The bottom line is neither Amtrak nor the USPS will ever be profitable because Congress will not allow them to be.  Amtrak was profitable for a couple of years when they were running mixed trains but the private sector whined to Congress so they were told to stop.  My favorite Amtrak trip was and always will be on the 3 Rivers from Chicago to Philadelphia.  33 cars long (limited by the railroad) but only 4 of them carried passengers.   Shippers loved it.

And so long as the USPS has to continue rural delivery they won't be profitable either.

In 2006, Congress and President Bush signed into law The Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act  which forced the USPS to pay in advance for the health and retirement benefits of all of its employees for at least 50 years, and stipulated that the price of postage could not increase faster than the rate of inflation. It also mandated the USPS to deliver six days of the week.

It got very little corporate media attention at the time or since.  Instead corporate media have given a platform to the lies about the plight of the USPS instead which is why so many people have no idea about any of this.  That makes corporate owned media complicit in the lies surrounding the financial problems of the USPS.

Now, the US House is introducing 2021 Postal Service Reform Act  a watered down but at least an attempt at undoing the damage to the agency caused by the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act of 2006.  Guess what?  IT TOO is getting little or no corporate owned media attention reaffirming their complicity in the lies surrounding the actual reasons for the financial problems of the USPS.  Now if your favorite corporate owned cable news station is talking about any of it, I will stand corrected.

John

@mark s posted:

Ok, Amtrak is a money-losing proposition.

There is some new thinking on national debt vs. GDP.  The thought is that the old ratios, which predicted immenent financial collapses, the collapses never occurred. The current US national debt to annual GDP ratio is 102%, according to the WSJ  Sept 2, 2020. Japan's ratio is 230%, has been for maybe 30 years, and they still have not collapsed.  Much of our debt is held by China, the UK, and Japan, as opposed to the WWII era, when almost all debt was held by US citizens. Guess the thought is that we could welch on our debts, and it wouldn't hurt America. Plus we control our currency and can produce new currency as needed.  Believe all of this falls into "Modern Monetary Theory".  See "US debt at a record high,  but the risk calculus is changing", by Jo Craven McGinty, in todays WSJ.   Other commentators have said "this will work.......until it doesn't" !!      I am only an observer, biting my nails.

The USA has military personnel and bases in 160 countries, of the 195 named countries on earth.  We spend $760B directly  on our military, additional sums for the CIA, which is a closely aligned activity to our military plus we provide military aid to a fair number of countries. It all totals around $1T per year. Perhaps that is an area of expenditure worth scrutinizing. All the while we are building bombs and weapons, waging utterly pointless wars around the world and there are members of our political class and commentariat who are thumping the tub for a military confrontation with China over Taiwan, and Russia over Ukraine........all the while, China is building roads, hospitals, ports and railroads all over the world. The Chinese just opened a 7500 mile railroad to the UK, linking Europe directly to China for trade. We are rapidly heading to the dustbin of history.

Think Amtrak is the least of our problems.

Actually, a lot of our debt is still held internally, I believe the single highest owner of treasury debt is the Social Security Administration, because for 40 years the government had been taking the excess payments in SS (designed to be a bubble for baby boomer retirees), and they leave treasury notes.

@Will posted:

@bigkid I basically agree with you. but let's not tread into the political. I don't want to see this thread get yanked. And that goes doubly for you @mark s. We can all agree that everything the gov spends money on doesn't have to turn a profit and leave it at that.

To return to the topic, looking at the map Amtrak released, from where I am sitting in NE PA, the lines from Scranton and the Lehigh Valley to NYC look like a no brainer (to me) for a relatively small investment. There have been plans, proposals and studies for bringing rail service back to the area almost from the day they ripped up the tracks on the Lackawanna cut off in about 1985. And yet nothing gets done. Right now it is a bus or a drive to Dover or taking in your car. The bus is basically an monopoly and expensive and its far cheaper for one person to drive to Dover and take the train than drive in. The problem is it takes forever.

Since this crosses three states, maybe this is the perfect route for Amtrak (ie. the fed gov) to get involved in. Personally I am obviously rooting for this.

Yeah, they have been talking about this for years, with people moving to PA and commuting. Some of the delay that I understand was that the projected cost of commuting would be so high it would be cheaper to drive. Some of it is the cost, of for example getting the Paulinskill Viaduct back into action. A lot of it quite honestly was silliness, all these claims that they would use the lackawanna cutoff for 'garbage trains' or toxic waste trains going to dump sites in Pennsylvania. It is silly because the grades on the cutoff are such that freight trains would likely not use it.

The biggest factor was who would pay for it, if PA and NJ would pay for it, the feds. The other question now will be will it be needed, will people be working from home and not going in, and right now that is a big if.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Are you suggesting that any rural residents just don't need mail service?

The real question is the nature of that service. In rural areas the cost of delivery is expensive given how far people live apart, it is the same way that having post offices in every town was expensive. One suggestion was that people living in rural areas would have to go to town to get mail, that it isn't cost effective to deliver mail like that. The problem has been made worse with the surge in deliveries from Amazon and the like, the USPS in rural areas is the 'last leg of the journey'.

Only thing I will point out is if we want to maintain rural delivery then we need to be willing to find a way to pay for it, whether it is government subsidies or raising rates. It is much the same as Amtrak, many of those complaining about Amtrak or the USPS, saying they should be abolished, are often the same people squawking when they talk about cutting back service to areas they come from. The problem isn't rural delivery or Amtrak service, it is recognizing the value of it, especially for people who live in the affected areas.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Are you suggesting that any rural residents just don't need mail service?

I live in the country and am all for rural delivery and don't mind if the post office loses money. It is a service.

In Canada, they have a bank of maybe 50 locked boxes that serves an entire neighborhood. You have to get in the car or take a little walk to get your mail. I suppose that is no different than having a post office box- which we used to. This could be in our future in certain places.

I have to say I am spoiled by having my mailbox at the foot of my front steps. Even my neighbors have to come down and get theirs. (private road)

@Will posted:

In Canada, they have a bank of maybe 50 locked boxes that serves an entire neighborhood. You have to get in the car or take a little walk to get your mail. I suppose that is no different than having a post office box- which we used to. This could be in our future in certain places

I live in a townhouse community and we have a central neighborhood mail building.  It's different going 1/4 of a mile to get the mail than going 10 miles to get the mail!  So, that's my reality right now.

@Will posted:

To return to the topic, looking at the map Amtrak released, from where I am sitting in NE PA, the lines from Scranton and the Lehigh Valley to NYC look like a no brainer (to me) for a relatively small investment. There have been plans, proposals and studies for bringing rail service back to the area almost from the day they ripped up the tracks on the Lackawanna cut off in about 1985. And yet nothing gets done. Right now it is a bus or a drive to Dover or taking in your car. The bus is basically an monopoly and expensive and its far cheaper for one person to drive to Dover and take the train than drive in. The problem is it takes forever.

Since this crosses three states, maybe this is the perfect route for Amtrak (ie. the fed gov) to get involved in. Personally I am obviously rooting for this.

Will,

NJT has laid track down in sections for Phase I. This being said, they are missing track in several sections: The Port Morris Wye, Route 602 Crossing and curve, 2nd curve west of Port Morris, & Roseville Tunnel to Andover Station. They awarded the contract to restore the Roseville Tunnel a few months ago (work will start Oct. 2021).

Re: you statement about Dover station. There are several stations before Dover: Mt. Arlington, Lake Hopatcong, Netcong, Mt. Olive & Hackettstown. However, if you want hourly trains then Dover is the place to be.

Looking at the new 2021 Amtrak map, they are proposing new services to Scranton. Perhaps the feds will get involved. I personally am a fan of a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 split of costs between NJ, PA, and the Feds. I know for a fact that the State of New Jersey is looking to kick the bill for Phase II elsewhere (Andover to Slateford Junction section) since the Viaducts are both in this phase. The good news is that costs are much lower than initially predicted (Lackawanna Cut-off Commuter Rail Study).

@bigkid posted:

Yeah, they have been talking about this for years, with people moving to PA and commuting. Some of the delay that I understand was that the projected cost of commuting would be so high it would be cheaper to drive. Some of it is the cost, of for example getting the Paulinskill Viaduct back into action. A lot of it quite honestly was silliness, all these claims that they would use the lackawanna cutoff for 'garbage trains' or toxic waste trains going to dump sites in Pennsylvania. It is silly because the grades on the cutoff are such that freight trains would likely not use it.

The biggest factor was who would pay for it, if PA and NJ would pay for it, the feds. The other question now will be will it be needed, will people be working from home and not going in, and right now that is a big if.

I don't know if you have seen the latest cost estimate for the cutoff but it has drastically gone down (Please see above link for Study)

The 2006 study estimated ~$551M to replace the 21 miles of missing track from Port Morris to East Stroudsburg and upgrade the two viaducts. The newer study estimates it will cost ~$289M since the status of the viaducts are in much better condition than they originally predicted. The issue then becomes, who will pay for this? NJ, PA, or the Feds?

Bryce

The Hudson River tunnel(s) are the sticking point for all the NE corridor.  Until that gets done it will be a patchwork bottleneck and if the existing tunnel fails (at the wrong time) it will be as bad as 9/11.  Obama and Trump and Biden have all said split it evenly between NJ, NY and the Feds.  NJ says no every time they're not paying anything.  I guess they're waiting to see who will blink first.

Thanks, Bryce for the update. It's understandable why NJ balks, since they would get nothing from a route from PA to NY. That's why the Federal Government needs to be involved. I little thing called interstate transport. They could put a station in Blairstown again, but that is a sprinkling of people. ( I used to live there)

The problem with the stations west of Dover is lack of service as you said. (Not to mention an interminable trip), but I will have to check them out again. Either way, I still have to get in a car and drive a distance to a station, so the extra few miles to Dover is no big deal.

Now if Manhattan implements congestion pricing for mid-town access, that could shake things up.

@Will posted:

Thanks, Bryce for the update. It's understandable why NJ balks, since they would get nothing from a route from PA to NY. That's why the Federal Government needs to be involved. I little thing called interstate transport. They could put a station in Blairstown again, but that is a sprinkling of people. ( I used to live there)

The problem with the stations west of Dover is lack of service as you said. (Not to mention an interminable trip), but I will have to check them out again. Either way, I still have to get in a car and drive a distance to a station, so the extra few miles to Dover is no big deal.

Now if Manhattan implements congestion pricing for mid-town access, that could shake things up.

Now this is a small world. Where did you live in Blairstown? That is my neck of the woods, I went to North Warren for high school.

NJT is planning to re-open Blairstown Station in Phase II with ~250 parking spaces to cut down on I-80 congestion. A lot of locals are not too happy about this since Blairstown will become a commuter station. I frankly don't mind since the station is on Hope Rd. and not directly on Route 94. The influx of commuters will also help local businesses which is a great thing. However, easy access to major cities means more people will move out here. Many are worried that Race Farm will sell some of their land to developers for condos/apartments once the line is complete, I am one of these people with that concern. I'm okay with commuters who drive here and go home at the end of the day but, I draw the line at major development. I'd be happier with the cut-off being used for freight but people around here go nuts when I bring it up.... The toxic freight myth rears its ugly head.

If the feds and Amtrak gets involved with the cut-off restoration, a lot of questions come into my head:
- As I said previously, who will foot the bill for Phase II? NJ, PA, or the feds?
- Will PA fund Phase III in upgrading the line? Will the feds help too?
- Will Amtrak run trains? If yes, what trains will Amtrak run? Local or express trains?
- Who has priority on the line? Amtrak or NJT?
- Will the Delaware-Lackawanna allow for passenger use on their line? (VERY important)
- On the Delaware-Lackawanna section of the line, who will have priority? Passenger or freight?
- Is running Amtrak and NJT at the same time, on the same line, economically feasible?
- Will NJT allow the Delaware-Lackawanna to run freight trains on the cut-off during off-hours?

Assuming Amtrak does have a train on the new cut-off, I would love if they named the Scranton to NYC run as the "The Pocono" as an homage to the region and the former DL&W train, "The Pocono Express."
As you know, NJT is doing it on the cheap and not electrifying the line, my guess is that Amtrak will most likely use their new Charger locos. It'd also be really cool if Amtrak made a few trainsets with their new Siemens Venture cars.

Anything after Dover is "Limited Service" per NJT's website.

A few things as food for thought:
- If this project is ever completed and connects Manhattan to Scranton, I predict that trains will be more frequent at these limited service stations (Mt. Arlington, Lake Hopatcong, Netcong, Mt. Olive & Hackettstown)
- Assuming Manhattan implements congestion pricing for mid-town access, trains will become much more popular with commuters.
- NY Penn Station and the North River Tunnels... The tunnels need to be repaired and upgraded. Penn Station needs to be rebuilt or made much more efficient (especially if the congestion pricing happens). I am a big fan of combining Rebuild Penn Station's and ReThinkNYC's plans (rebuild the old PRR station and make it a through-running station). The issue then becomes, who will pay for this? NYC, NY State, the Feds? All three?


Bryce

If they are going to do the Lackawanna cutoff and Amtrak uses it, it will be some combination of federal financing, NJ and PA DOT as well, there is no doubt. For example, who owns the old lackwanna cutoff line, that currently is a rail trail?  If that was owned by the DLW, then technically I assume it was owned by Conrail when that line was absorbed in, so is that owned by the remnant of Conrail, or is it owned by CSX? If it was owned by conrail I assume that they could shift ownership to Amtrak, so they would own the rails (and folks, this is pure speculation and guess work). It is possible NJ transit already owns the trackage in NJ, they may have gotten that when they started looking at this.

Personally I think the contributing factor will be how much traffic post covid they anticipate commuting into NYC, right now that is really up in the air, dreams of totally virtual offices are as unlikely as NYC commuting pre Covid will return, what the balance will be, who knows? As a result I suspect this project won't even begin to happen until next year or 2023, so they can see if it is cost justified.

@bigkid posted:

If they are going to do the Lackawanna cutoff and Amtrak uses it, it will be some combination of federal financing, NJ and PA DOT as well, there is no doubt. For example, who owns the old lackwanna cutoff line, that currently is a rail trail?  If that was owned by the DLW, then technically I assume it was owned by Conrail when that line was absorbed in, so is that owned by the remnant of Conrail, or is it owned by CSX? If it was owned by conrail I assume that they could shift ownership to Amtrak, so they would own the rails (and folks, this is pure speculation and guess work). It is possible NJ transit already owns the trackage in NJ, they may have gotten that when they started looking at this.

Personally I think the contributing factor will be how much traffic post covid they anticipate commuting into NYC, right now that is really up in the air, dreams of totally virtual offices are as unlikely as NYC commuting pre Covid will return, what the balance will be, who knows? As a result I suspect this project won't even begin to happen until next year or 2023, so they can see if it is cost justified.

I am hopefully for an even split of costs but, NJ tends to play hardball and doesn't like to pay for anything.

Your speculation and guess work is somewhat accurate. Conrail operated the line until 1979. They sold the line to for $2M to Jerry Turco, a NJ developer in the 1980s. He setup several corporations for (liability reasons) in each town that the cut-off ran through. In 2001, the NJDOT purchased the entire cut-off via eminent domain. Starting in 2011, the state started buying properties/land adjacent to the future track and planning restoration service. Example: Land around the Blairstown station was owned by a private entity. The state wants to a large commuter parking lot, so the private entity sold it to the state for a pretty penny, many locals were NOT happy about that. Around 2015, the state erected barriers on both sides of the Paulinskill viaduct to prevent people from going up there and they started fencing sections of the cut-off where major work needs to be done.

As stated above, Phase I (Port Morris to Andover) has track laid own in several sections. Work started on the line in 2011. There were a few environmental issues that took up a lot of time and money (all resolved now) and the Roseville Tunnel restoration is set to start this October. NJT predicts that Phase I can be in operation by 2023.

On the other side of the river, the state of PA also acquired the sections of the cut-off that weren't being used by the Delaware-Lackawanna around 2002.

If I know the state of NJ, they won't hand anything over to anyone for free. They will probably charge Amtrak to operate on their track. Or, it will be some agreement like the NEC: Amtrak owns the track and NJT owns the stations. Ownership and trackage rights will be the hot topic for Phase II since it includes both viaducts.

Good point. I don't know how big of an impact post-COVID commuters to NYC will be, it could be enormous or very small. Many large companies in Manhattan are planning to go back full-time to work and the city is opening up. Only time will tell.

Bryce

@Oscale_Trains_Lover_ posted:

Now this is a small world. Where did you live in Blairstown? That is my neck of the woods, I went to North Warren for high school.

Bryce

Bryce I lived in Marksboro and both my kids graduated from NWRHS. What year did you graduate?

Thanks for all the detailed info on the proposed plans and progress. I don't know how much a Blairstown station would affect development. I would think it would skip Blairstown in favor of the Poconos as it currently does. Plus, after Covid, I see less actual commuting in our future. People will move even further from the city if they only have to go in occasionally. This is is already happening in places like the Catskills.

@Will posted:

Bryce I lived in Marksboro and both my kids graduated from NWRHS. What year did you graduate?

Thanks for all the detailed info on the proposed plans and progress. I don't know how much a Blairstown station would affect development. I would think it would skip Blairstown in favor of the Poconos as it currently does. Plus, after Covid, I see less actual commuting in our future. People will move even further from the city if they only have to go in occasionally. This is is already happening in places like the Catskills.

I know Marksboro very well! The Marksboro deli has a great prime rib sandwich. I graduated NWR in 2018 and currently go to college in NY state.

No problem! I honestly don't think Blairstown station would really impact development, the issues have always been about the viaducts. I would be very happy if trains ran on the cut-off once again.
Bryce

@Oscale_Trains_Lover_ posted:

I know Marksboro very well! The Marksboro deli has a great prime rib sandwich. I graduated NWR in 2018 and currently go to college in NY state.

No problem! I honestly don't think Blairstown station would really impact development, the issues have always been about the viaducts. I would be very happy if trains ran on the cut-off once again.
Bryce

Wow, Bryce, you are a young train enthusiast. I am very happy to see young people interested in trains. My kids graduated in '98 and '06, so another whole generation, lol. I left Marksboro in 1993 and moved over to PA in 1997, so it's been a long time. ( I started visiting my wife's family there in 1975, moved there part time in 1981 and we bought our farm in 1984. I'm an old timer.

I remember very clearly when they tore up the tracks on the cut off and sent them to Japan I think. About 1985. Our farm was actually on the Susquehanna ROW which straddled our property. There was the foundation of the old creamery and across the road was where the station stood. My (ex) wife's grandfather used to take the train from NYC and get off there. Near the old mill if you know where that is.