MTH Cancellations

Thanks for posting the list. I know things get cancelled from almost every catalog Probably a dumb question and may not be answerable, but do you have any idea what the reasons are for cancellations? Just not enough pre-orders or dealer orders to make a production run or could there be other problems like manufacturing, tooling, etc.? Just curious.

SEEMS like a larger than normal list. 

Wow that's a lot.  It's a shame. People look forward to these products and then they cancel them.  That's like not buying a brand new car because you like the next model and you wait, then they cancel it.  False advertising

Wow, that's some list of cancellations!

The primary reason is insufficient dealer orders. I suspect there are some absurdly low order numbers behind some of the canceled items, as MTH has been known to make some unusually small-ish production runs from time to time. 

---PCJ

Whew, nothing from my pre-order list...yet!  Thanks Charlie and Chris!

 

- Mike

Thanks, kind of what I thought. I do like the fact that MTH does make a lot of the smaller unknown roads and more obscure stuff. Seems like a lot more variety here than with the other manufacturers and they are not all just the Eastern road names. They do have to make a profit in order to be able to keep making things for us though.   

 

No cancellations from my pre-order list this time, however.

Being honest with my thoughts only. Seeing these, and finding less and less, makes me wonder if I picked the right gauge?

Dang, that's one big list.

O scale has 14 items cancelled, which in reality breaks down into the 4 Sharknose AB sets and the four Sharknose non-powered A units, and 6 scale wheel items (which are most likely targeted toward the 2 rail market).

 

Unless one really wanted one of those PS 3.0 Sharknose sets, this is not much of a loss for traditional 3 rail O scale. Also if one were to look at sales on the Lionel Sharknose sets that might be clue to these being cancelled, I've seen them for under $400.00 from multiple vendors, 50% off, and nearly everyone seems to have them in stock. To many Sharks?  

 

HO is the clear loser here, with 23 items being cancelled.

 

Overall:

12 -- Tin Plate

14 -- US O Scale

12 -- European O Scale

3 -- Track

23 -- HO

4 -- 1 Gauge

Sure I think it may be more cancelled than in the catalog?

Whew! Thank goodness the SD70ACe's are still in the running. Thanks for the update.

One thing MTH and Lionel should think about. If you don't make it or have it you can't sell it.

HO is the clear loser here, with 23 items being cancelled.

Note that 15 of the cancelled HO items were "Protosound 3E+" locomotives.  These locomotives are designed for Marklin stud-rail (3-rail) HO track and won't run on traditional 2-rail HO layouts.

 

One thing MTH and Lionel should think about. If you don't make it or have it you can't sell it.

So your business model would be to produce items for which you know there is no current market (insufficient orders) and then HOPE that people decide that they really do want the stuff?  Or are you hoping for future blowout pricing?  Those days are about over.

 

The list might [ repeat, might ] be even longer:  If you look at the scale wheel equivalents of the European tank car 6-packs that were cancelled above on the MTH website, they still show a September delivery -- but when you hit "Find them" the screen doesn't change.  That might mean of course there are still direct sales through Busch, or it might not.

 

And actually European 0 is a leading loser, as these tank cars are THE new rolling stock in the catalogue.  Of course it's possible that Euro modellers want more prototypical paint schemes, not the boldest -- but one would think [ well, where MTH is concerned, hope ] that Busch had input on these.  To a certain extent MTH rolling stock has been better received in my opinion than their locomotives, at least in Germany, so these cancellations are surprising.....

 

Best, SZ

For most companies the days of producing things just to fill the shelves and wait for it to sell ended long ago. The train manufacturers are now catching up. Would not be surprised to see more 'build to order' in our future and no building at all if orders are not sufficient.

Me too!  Was worried as this thread opened!

Call it a market correction.

WOW that's looks like a lot, I'm glad I didn't have any of these ordered.

The first 12 items are Tinplate, and half of them are standard gauge.  All of the SG items are in the crackle finish...talk about a niche within a niche!

 

Jeff Davis

Initially it looks like a lot but there is only the Sharknoses in O gauge cancelled and a lot of the niche Standard gauge as others have pointed out.  When you consider everything in the O gauge catalog, I think MTH is doing pretty well.  What are the 70- items?  Anyone know? 

70- are railking 1 gauge items.

It’s the end of the line folks?

 

If MTH corresponded with the modelers and actually asked us what we would buy, it might be a

different story.

I would happily provide them money in advance to get an item I think we would like to have made.

 

Probably can’t generate enough capitol for the actual suppliers in this grim market place.

Holly Schmooly Batman! That is a wake up call! Even the much vaunted European market with supposedly great selling trains got the axe. HHHmmmm does this mean space trains and race car sets are right around the corner!!!

 

Nah, I think folks in O gauge may have enough Sharks and other items they do not really need and the economy is still the pitts.

 

Baby boomers are now being careful with money because a lot of them are starting to retire(me Shortly) so they are being more picky on what they are ordering like me from now on.

The manufactures need to come out with something exciting that we must have or we will put the money in the bank and go travel like to Vegas or some exotic land somewhere( by train). 

We are still in the golden age but it may not be 24 Karate gold.

Glass is still half full!

Are they producing the catalogs just to get bites to see if what is in it will sell, IF

they produce it?  Can be very disappointing, and downright enraging, if they don't.

Of course, I have no idea why they choose some of the stuff..."crackle finish??"

(I'm still enraged over cancellation of my last pre-order, some years ago, which has

not encouraged others)  It had better be something I am dying to own, to pre-order,

and then I will be psyched to expect disappointment if it never materializes.

Even though it's frustrating when they cancel one of your orders, your pre-orders will only increase the chances of something being made as far as having enough orders to produce it go. You could be assisting in the cancellation process by not pre-ordering.

The O Scale/O Gauge SD50s with High-Rail Wheels is what I am waiting to get.

 

Will the guys who did not get the Scale Wheels SD50 produced then purchase a High-Rail Wheels version instead?

 

 

Andrew

A rather disturbingly lengthy list, to be sure! 

This also makes it hard on hobby shops when they cancel orders like this. They can't sell trains if they can't get them.

I almost think MTH and Lionel should make smaller catalogs so they do not have to cancel as many items. 

I'm just happy the BM&R 2102 T-1 wasn't cancelled.  I'm not in a position to pre-order one, but I hope to purchase one when they drop.

If you add up the stuff offered across all of the catalogs, it's a terrifically large number. i think we lose track of how much they do make across product lines. 

No. I run 2 rail. I'm not going to go through all that work just to 2 rail it and still be left a model that has no cab interior and the China drive. I was on the fence about whether I wanted it or not in the first place. I went ahead an ordered one because I like SD50's. I'm just going to wait until I find a brass model now I think.

These and other companies cancellation are why I will not pre-order.  If they want to do a MTO (Made to Order) I will consider it if the item is exactly what I want and there is a reasonable delivery date, otherwise "in stock or no order".

 

Douglas

I imagine that you are not alone Douglas. I think there are a lot of people getting turned off.

 

 I'm still not sure that there is a difference between BTO and pre-order though. There are still economic minimums that need to be met for a project to be profitable. The difference seems to be in communication though. Take Scott Mann at 3rd rail for instance. He lets everyone know the status of the projects on basically a monthly basis. MTH brings out the catalog in what, April? but doesn't announce cancelations until the end of Aug. That is bound to cause frustration.

 

My friend and I have one simple rule with MTH... Until it shows up at my door or on a dealer's shelf somewhere, it doesn't exist. The catalog is a wish book full of vaporware- to borrow an IT term.

I cannot help but wonder if these cancellations are a flaw in the business model.

Pre-ordering without the guarantee of receiving what was ordered? I would think this is not a confidence builder in terms of the reliability of what is in a catalog. It's sort of setting oneself up to be possibly let down. Can anyone provide a case where another product is marketed this way? I can't think of one at the moment.

Joining in on this thread very late...   But as I see it, the cancellation list "appears" large simply because it's inclusive across MTH's entire product line (i.e., Standard Gauge, O-Gauge (USA and European), HO and #1). 

 

If we zoom in on the O-Gauge stuff, the Sharks jump right off the list at us.  Big deal.  Lionel overproduced those and has been trying (unsuccessfully) to blow them out for MONTHS now.  They even tried to offer them with "weathering", and I'm not sure how successful that was.  But by the looks of things, I don't think a critical mass of folks jumped on the weathered-bandwagon or we'd have heard more about that by now.  Customers just aren't interested.  Why MTH even catalog'd Sharks is a mystery -- given Lionel's over-saturation of the market with them.  So is anyone here THAT surprised to see these items withdrawn from production?     Sounds like a prudent call by MTH to hit the cancel button rather than have them collect dust. 

 

As for other O-Gauge items, the scale-wheels products venture into what I'd call "niche within a niche" territory.  And even though hi-rail and scale efforts appear more popular today than "toy train" themed layouts, I guess even the scale avenues have their limits when catalogs are produced with the thud factor of a New York City phone book.

 

All in all, the list appears ominous... but not terribly surprising when we peel away a few layers of the onion.  MTH is simply executing on stuff we've been discussing here all along... namely the super-saturation of a market where most of us already have more trains than we need to have fun in this hobby. 

 

How the importers market new product to us is only gonna get tougher and tougher, and may appear in various disguises.   I've been saying it all along that BTO (from the consumer's POV) is just marketing hype... and was just more or less a way to push the risk-factor away from the importer toward the consumer.  In actuality, the party holding the risk in the BTO model will be the dealers/distributors who've ordered "extra" units.  And if they elect to not order sufficient quantities of something, then the importers will cancel production.

 

David

 

The way I see it, In O gauge, it's a repetitive world.  In today's world of increasing cost, there's little extra money for window dressing.

Its no secret there's only so much that can be made in numbers great enough to profit and most of that has been made multiple times.  

What is worse, these companies are in competition with themselves in the secondary market where tonnage of nearly identical product exists at giveaway prices.

It's really surprising at current prices these companies can sell anything at all VS what is available used.  

Joe  

 

As soon as 3D printers get good enough/cheap enough I plan on doing just that. Maybe not a company, but at least for myself.