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I haven't followed this topic in a few weeks - not sure what else has been discussed. I noticed today in the paper, though, that the Obama Administration is really tightening up on mergers. Personally, I think this is good news - too often mergers now are leading to lost jobs, higher prices, and poorer service. The title of the article was "Feds Muzzle Mergers."

Current merger proposals that have been torpedoed, or that action is being taken to stop, or are under intense review, include Pfizer-Allergan (drugs - a $160 billion deal! - was rejected), Halliburton-Baker Hughes (oilfield services and etc.), Staples-Office Depot, Aetna-Humana (health), Anthem-Cigna (insurance), and Anheuser Busch-SAD Miller (breweries). 

Given this climate, it would seem pursuing a major railroad merger would be a fool's errand. Hopefully this proposed deal is dead in the water anyway.

Last edited by breezinup
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Casey Jones2 posted:

The govt. should keep it's nose out of any business and do what it does best...nothing!

So, does that mean:

1.  Air traffic control should stop?

2.  All first response services should stop?

3.  Interstate highway system should be shut down?????

4.  Coast Guard stay in port..........

5.  No laws at all?  Who then will save you and me from harm?

Last edited by Dominic Mazoch
Matt Kirsch posted:

I don't understand this, when the alternative is one or both companies slowly circling the toilet until they inevitably go under, putting EVERYONE out of work! Not just a few.

Except that's not the alternative. In fact, both companies are healthy, and Norfolk Southern just wants to be left alone! The last thing they want is a forced marriage.

Last edited by breezinup
Dominic Mazoch posted:
Casey Jones2 posted:

The govt. should keep it's nose out of any business and do what it does best...nothing!

So, does that mean:

1.  Air traffic control should stop?

2.  All first response services should stop?

3.  Interstate highway system should be shut down?????

4.  Coast Guard stay in port..........

5.  No laws at all?  Who then will save you and me from harm?

Casey will be returning all his Social Security checks, I'm sure. 

Ed Walsh posted:

Even though the government is getting tough on mergers, these railroads have a bunch of cash soe of which will eventually be funneled into politicians pockets.  This merger will happen.  The only question is when.  

Ed

If that were true, all these merger proposals would be happening. Which they're not.

You think these other companies trying to merge don't have a bunch of cash? This proposed railroad merger isn't in the same league as the Pfizer-Allergen $160B deal, and it got blown out of the water. Money in pockets has little to do with it.

Besides, even if money were to be put in pockets, whose pockets would Norfolk Southern's money go to? To politicians who are OPPOSED to the merger.

Last edited by breezinup
breezinup posted:
Matt Kirsch posted:

I don't understand this, when the alternative is one or both companies slowly circling the toilet until they inevitably go under, putting EVERYONE out of work! Not just a few.

Except that's not the alternative. In fact, both companies are healthy, and Norfolk Southern just wants to be left alone! The last thing they want is a forced marriage.

Then they should be able to just say "No" as in any other business deal.

I suppose CN could buy up controlling interest in NS stock, and there should be nothing stopping them from doing that. It's the price you pay for taking a company public.

Matt Kirsch posted:
breezinup posted:
Matt Kirsch posted:

I don't understand this, when the alternative is one or both companies slowly circling the toilet until they inevitably go under, putting EVERYONE out of work! Not just a few.

Except that's not the alternative. In fact, both companies are healthy, and Norfolk Southern just wants to be left alone! The last thing they want is a forced marriage.

Then they should be able to just say "No" as in any other business deal.

I suppose CN could buy up controlling interest in NS stock, and there should be nothing stopping them from doing that. It's the price you pay for taking a company public.

The process is far, far (far) more complex than that. Often it is not possible just to say "no." There are procedural methods and alternatives to get around this in many cases. These are corporations, owned by thousands of shareholders. You should go back and read some of the previous commentary about the merger, and other information about the procedural aspects of mergers. It is a very complicated, multi-faceted undertaking that can take many forms. 

Breezinup,

I sure hope you are correct.  I don't know the good or bad about this proposed merger.  I just don't want any outcome be as a result of politicians voting in favor because they got lobbiest money.  

As to an unwelcome merger, as Matt said, that is the risk when you go public.

Admittedly   my memory is not so good but I cannot remember any merger that did not result in large layoffs and a decrease in competition resulting in an increase in price.

i just hope that whatever happens the impact to employees is minimum.

Ed

Last edited by Ed Walsh

Good Day,

I've said it and I'll say it again.............based on the Surface Transportation Board New Rules Governing Major Railroad Mergers & Consolidations from 2001. ......................this merger will never happen!  There are mountains of Federal requirements that CP can never comply with or provide.  CP is dreaming!

https://stb.dot.gov/newsrels.n...050e630?OpenDocument

Regards,

Swafford

Ed Walsh posted:

Breezinup,

I sure hope you are correct.  I don't know the good or bad about this proposed merger.  I just don't want any outcome be as a result of politicians voting in favor because they got lobbiest money.  

 Ed

It isn't a matter of politicians voting. These merger approval/disapproval proceedings take place in regulatory agencies, including the Surface Transportation Board and the Treasury Department. They aren't voted on in Congress. You have your governmental powers confused. The Surface Transportation Board, for example, is a bipartisan, decisionally-independent adjudicatory body organizationally housed within the U.S. Department of Transportation. It's members are nominated by the President.

Last edited by breezinup

Just to set the record straight, the Pfizer-Allergan merger was not "rejected."  Instead, it was cancelled after Treasury / IRS took regulatory action to eliminate a significant chunk of the tax benefits of the cross-border inversion deal.  Effectively, Pfizer would have "left" the US and been domiciled in Ireland, producing a much lower overall tax rate for them.  With those "savings" seemingly gone, the deal collapsed.

Too bad the Administration and Treasury / IRS didn't take those steps years ago.  Unfortunately, since they are only regulatory changes, they can be reversed by a "new" Administration, and we will see tax inversions begin to rise again.  None of this affects the potential CP - NS merger, but such merger would still be subject to anti-trust and anti-monopoly rules.

Chuck

Last edited by PRR1950

Canadian Pacific Trust Plan Draws U.S. Antitrust Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...?cmpid=yhoo.headline

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd.’s plan to set up a voting trust to allow its chief executive to run Norfolk Southern Corp. in advance of its proposed takeover of the U.S. carrier should be rejected, the U.S. Justice Department said.

The trust structure is meant to allow Norfolk Southern investors to be paid for their shares while the U.S. railroad keeps operating on its own pending a regulatory review of Canadian Pacific’s unsolicited bid. The Justice Department, in a written statement Friday, said the trust would fail to keep the railroads separate during the review and would risk harm to current and future competition.

“Canadian Pacific’s voting trust proposal would compromise Norfolk Southern’s independence and effectively combine the two railroads prior to completion of the STB’s review,” Bill Baer, the head of the department’s antitrust division, said, referring to the U.S. Surface Transportation Board. “That makes no sense."

 

Canadian Pacific, Canada’s second-largest railroad, is seeking the STB’s approval of the trust structure. The U.S. Army on Thursday voiced opposition to the deal and the trust, saying it could harm national defense for two companies with "potentially competing interests" to be managed as one.

"Surely that can’t help CP’s chances,” Steven Paget, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital in Calgary, said in a telephone interview. "This is the STB’s call, but the Department of Justice has a role in mergers.”

Ackman Connection

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, whose Pershing Square Capital Management is the second-largest shareholder of Canadian Pacific, with a 9.1 percent stake, has advocated for the merger during conference calls with analysts and investors.

Canadian Pacific Chief Executive Officer Hunter Harrison has repeatedly said Norfolk Southern could be run during the regulatory review by an executive of his company -- even suggesting himself as a possibility -- so that merger integration is swift and seamless once regulators sign off.

 

Harrison has pointed out that a similar arrangement was put in place at Illinois Central Corp. before Canadian National Railway Co., the country’s largest carrier, acquired it in 1998. Harrison was running Illinois Central at the time and later went on to run Canadian National.

"While CP is disappointed in the position taken by the DOJ, voting trusts have been used in hundreds of transactions involving regulated industries," Marty Cej, a spokesman for Canadian Pacific, said by e-mail.

Voting trusts "have long been recognized by the STB, regulators and the courts as an effective means of insulating the carriers from unlawful common control during regulatory review," Cej said. "We strongly believe Mr. Harrison would be completely independent and clear from any influence at CP if he were to assume the role of CEO at NS."

Rejected Offers

Norfolk Southern has rejected several approaches from Canadian Pacific, including one in December that valued the U.S. carrier at $27 billion, saying the merger and the proposed voting trust wouldn’t be approved by regulators.

While the Norfolk, Virginia-based carrier has been trailing major rivals as measured by operating ratio, which compares expenses as a percentage of sales, it’s not sitting idle. Jim Squires, who became Norfolk’s CEO in June, announced a cost-cutting and efficiency plan following Canadian Pacific’s merger offer that would save $650 million and trim 2,000 employees by 2020.

"Everybody knows Norfolk Southern is a lagging railroad,” Paget at FirstEnergy said. "A little dose of Hunter could really make them come alive.”

Canadian Pacific rose 2.1 percent to C$174.69 at 1:01 p.m. in Toronto trading. Norfolk Southern gained 2.3 percent to $81.90 in New York.

CSX is a great railroad! That said though, coal traffic is way down and Q1 results will be bad. My thinking....CSX stock is a good buy right now. The price will double in the next 2 years when Intermodal Traffic picks up from the ships coming through the Panama Canal.  The new channel work on the Panama Canal will allow ships with 4 X the cargo!...................... $50.00 a share stock by 2018.

Regards,

Swafford

Last edited by Swafford
Swafford posted:

CSX is a great railroad! That said though, coal traffic is way down and Q1 results will be bad. My thinking....CSX stock is a good buy right now. The price will double in the next 2 years when Intermodal Traffic picks up from the ships coming through the Panama Canal.  The new channel work on the Panama Canal will allow ships with 4 X the cargo!...................... $50.00 a share stock by 2018.

Regards,

Swafford

Coal traffic IS way down (something like $30 billion in revenue down to $19 billion) and coal is a high margin commodity. It takes four load of intermodal to make up for one load of coal. But CSX has been actively developing intermodal transfer facilities a up and down the east coast and should be ready to handle the increased intermodal traffic that will bypass west coast ports and come directly to east coast ports modified to handle the huge ships.  

Swafford posted:

Canadian Pacific Trust Plan Draws U.S. Antitrust Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...?cmpid=yhoo.headline

---------------------------------------

The US Army's response is interesting. "The U.S. Army on Thursday voiced opposition to the deal and the trust, saying it could harm national defense for two companies with "potentially competing interests" to be managed as one."

What are the differences between this proposal and when Hunter Harrison performed the Illinois Central / Canadian National wedding? 

Swafford posted:

CSX is a great railroad! That said though, coal traffic is way down and Q1 results will be bad. My thinking....CSX stock is a good buy right now. The price will double in the next 2 years when Intermodal Traffic picks up from the ships coming through the Panama Canal.  The new channel work on the Panama Canal will allow ships with 4 X the cargo!...................... $50.00 a share stock by 2018.

Regards,

Swafford

But with the new PC locks:

1.  Will the tolls skyrocket?  The waterway is not free!  And in heavy traffic times, the locks go to the highest bidder!

2.  Only the  new locks at each end is new.  I don't think the rest of the waterway is widened?

3.  My guess wait times will increase even to get to the locks.  

4.  Can the Suez Canal take the ships which can go through the new PC locks?  No locks here, but the Suez only runs one way at a time, and the political situation in the region is not stable.

Firewood posted:
Swafford posted:

Canadian Pacific Trust Plan Draws U.S. Antitrust Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...?cmpid=yhoo.headline

---------------------------------------

The US Army's response is interesting. "The U.S. Army on Thursday voiced opposition to the deal and the trust, saying it could harm national defense for two companies with "potentially competing interests" to be managed as one."

What are the differences between this proposal and when Hunter Harrison performed the Illinois Central / Canadian National wedding? 

NS services DOD dock facilities along the Atlantic Seaboard?

 

pittsburghrailfan posted:
Swafford posted:

FYI.....................any person or company wanting to purchase more than 5% of another company's stock must register their intentions with the SEC! 

Regards,

Swafford

That didn't stop the Children's Investment Fund...

Children's Investment Fund does not own more than 5% of CSX!  

Came across this - it's a pretty good and concise article on the termination of CP's proposed merger with NS. Thank goodness the Obama administration put the brakes on mergers, and this is dead.

(Loved the "scrambling the eggs" statement by U.S. Assistant Attorney General Baer) 

 

Canadian Pacific ends attempt to take over Norfolk Southern

Nathan Bomey, USA TODAY8:20 p.m. EDT April 12, 2016

 Canadian Pacific Railway's bid to acquire fellow rail giant Norfolk Southern came to an end following months of contentious back-and-forth squabbling and amid heightened scrutiny from the Obama administration on antitrust issues.

Canadian Pacific said Monday that it would no longer pursue the takeover, which it had proposed publicly despite Norfolk Southern's repeated rejections. It also withdrew a resolution that would have required Norfolk Southern shareholders to vote on whether to force deal talks.

"No further financial offers or overtures to meet with the NS board of directors are planned at this time," Canadian Pacific said in statement.

Norfolk Southern had repeatedly asserted that a merger would draw intense regulatory scrutiny, saying there's a good chance it would have been rejected. The company also questioned the value of Canadian Pacific's offer and said it could perform well on its own.

The deal's demise comes as the Obama administration has increased scrutiny of mergers in recent months, including the Treasury Department's scuttling of the proposed Pfizer-Allergan tie-up and the Justice Department's lawsuit to block the oilfield services merger of Halliburton and Baker Hughes.

And late last week, the Justice Department said it opposed a voting-trust structure that Canadian Pacific had proposed to the Surface Transportation Board, which reviews proposed railroad mergers. Under the proposal, Canadian Pacific would have acquired Norfolk Southern, Canadian Pacific's stock would have been placed in trust and its current CEO would have become CEO of Norfolk Southern before an antitrust review could be completed, according to the Justice Department.

“Canadian Pacific’s voting trust proposal would compromise Norfolk Southern’s independence and effectively combine the two railroads prior to completion of the STB’s review,” said Assistant Attorney General Bill Baer of the Justice Department’s antitrust division in an April 8 statement.  “That makes no sense. We urge the STB to preserve its ability to review the impact of the proposal on competition and consumers before Canadian Pacific starts scrambling the eggs.”

The prospective deal's demise marks a setback for activist investor and Canadian Railway shareholder Bill Ackman, who publicly pushed for the deal and suggested that "pride" was preventing Norfolk Southern from giving the offer adequate consideration.

Canadian Pacific went so far as to establish a website, CPconsolidation.com, to promote the deal. 

Last edited by breezinup

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