I have been watching the Stout Auction today. Have you seen the prices on this stuff? Wow, an EMPTY SET BOX, went for $7400.00. That is just crazy in my way of thinking. Most sets, with or without box, are going for $1500 up to $7000. Individual items are going for 100's of dollars. Well, more power to those buying at these prices. I guess they can afford it. Makes it kind of tuff on us little guy,s who just want a specific item or two.
Jeff
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And here I thought postwar stuff was declining in price!
High Quality Postwar generally has seemed to me to have retained/gained some value. The average commodity postwar is a different story. Of course, there are always exceptions and wild buyers.
Didn't we just have a member speculating that "The King (postwar Lionel) is dead"?
Jeff - I'll take your post as good news. It breaks my heart to consider postwar Lionel as "Dead".
Some folks have way to much money and not enough common sense. $7,400 for an empty box is simply insane.
@Don Winslow posted:Didn't we just have a member speculating that "The King (postwar Lionel) is dead"?
Jeff - I'll take your post as good news. It breaks my heart to consider postwar Lionel as "Dead".
You make a good point here. So does "Allegheny" in his post.
Jeff
I watch postwar pretty closely and buy when I find what I what at the right price. Agree that there are the outliers like those cited above, but also know that there are excellent deals if you look around and are selective.
I recently picked up an excellent condition Santa Fe F3 2343 AA set at a great price. How many did I take a pass on? Dozens, I'm sure.
Patience...
@Allegheny posted:Some folks have way to much money and not enough common sense. $7,400 for an empty box is simply insane.
Can you please point me toward some of those folks - I have a bunch of boxes that are taking up space. Probably nothing that would bring much money, though. 
A few years ago, I saw an empty pre-war set box at York - can't recall what it was for - about the top 1/3 had been torn away, and it had $3800 posted on it. I thought that was absolutely bonkers, but it looks like crazy has no limits.
@Allegheny posted:Some folks have way to much money and not enough common sense. $7,400 for an empty box is simply insane.
"Common sense is not so common." ...Voltaire
But, of course, it's just MHO.
TEHO.
OTOH, budgetary waste is also a pandemic. Read the knightly gnus lately?
----------------
@Don Winslow posted:Didn't we just have a member speculating that "The King (postwar Lionel) is dead"?
Well, I think the concensus from that discussion was the same as bmoran4 said above, that quality Postwar in great condition is holding its value, but the average commodity Postwar has become a different story.
The best source of competitive prices is eBay completed auctions as it usually has a large number of sales and bidders. As for Stout Auctions, how much did other equivalent Empty Set Boxes sell for on that site and how many bids and bidders where there?
Charlie
I tend to disagree with the OP. There may be some odd ball outliers and certainly some rare pieces still demanding high prices, but run-of-the mill postwar is getting harder and harder to sell. I buy a fair number of collections and I'm really only paying as low as possible for them.
ZW's were selling for up to $325 each at one time. Now you are lucky to get $100. I'll only calculate the value in a collection at $50 at best since they invariably need a new power cord, new rollers, and possibly new circuit breakers and rectifiers, plus the time to fix them.
2020 turbines were getting upwards of $150-$200 each. Now you are lucky to get $100, if you can even sell one. A moving price might be more like $75 unless in pristine condition with boxes. They have shown up with great regularity in recent collections I've purchased.
The last train show that I was at a couple of months ago there were tables FULL of common black steam engines of various numbers and none were moving.
I had someone contact me with a small collection with only a 665 w/2046W tender and a couple of cars including a Great Northern 6464 (don't know which one). He doesn't have and won't put together a list of the rest of the items and doesn't really have a price in mind except a "fair price". I'm hesitant to even go look at them since it is an hour away and with tolls. My real concern is that he will be insulted with what I would be willing to pay for them. There are no boxes and condition is completely unknown. A 665 w/2046W is a nice engine and generally runs well but I already have one in excellent condition in the boxes so this would be for resale. How long might it take to sell it and for how much? $75 to $100? Here's the thing. He wants me to come and look at them as I'm the only person to have contacted him about them. 10 to 15 or 20 years ago, I would have jumped all over the opportunity to purchase this small collection.
Just my humble opinion of the state of postwar Lionel. You are free to disagree. However, I still love running them and am just going to the basement layout to find out why my 364 log loader isn't working!
Some will pay big money for set boxes.
The same thing has happened to Marx prices(believe it or not) I enjoyed collecting metal Marx till prices went nuts.
If you read the details of the lot, it was part of a set break-up. The Hudson went in the next lot and the Pullmans followed that.
2148WS Box: $7,400
773 Hudson (C9/10) $5,100
3 Pullmans (C9) $4,400
Total $16,900
Stout sold a boxed 2148WS set complete with the loco and cars, rated C10, in 2017 for $11,000. The next lot after the Pullmans was a C10 Canadian Pacific F3 set for $7,300. That guy probably thought he got a bargain.
It only takes 2 people, or more likely egos, to make wild things happen at an auction.
Back to the beginning.
Ok, prices are really going crazy now on Postwar Lionel
I can't agree.
Have you noticed something? This only happens on a regular basis at Stout, and only on some Postwar Lionel. I haven't seen it at any other auction site, or with any other auction house.
(It's true that ebay listings will also sometimes reach these levels, but it's very, very rare that they sell at these levels.)
Let's take a deep breath and relax.
Mike
@lionelflyer posted:I tend to disagree with the OP. There may be some odd ball outliers and certainly some rare pieces still demanding high prices, but run-of-the mill postwar is getting harder and harder to sell. I buy a fair number of collections and I'm really only paying as low as possible for them.
ZW's were selling for up to $325 each at one time. Now you are lucky to get $100. I'll only calculate the value in a collection at $50 at best since they invariably need a new power cord, new rollers, and possibly new circuit breakers and rectifiers, plus the time to fix them.
2020 turbines were getting upwards of $150-$200 each. Now you are lucky to get $100, if you can even sell one. A moving price might be more like $75 unless in pristine condition with boxes. They have shown up with great regularity in recent collections I've purchased.
The last train show that I was at a couple of months ago there were tables FULL of common black steam engines of various numbers and none were moving.
I had someone contact me with a small collection with only a 665 w/2046W tender and a couple of cars including a Great Northern 6464 (don't know which one). He doesn't have and won't put together a list of the rest of the items and doesn't really have a price in mind except a "fair price". I'm hesitant to even go look at them since it is an hour away and with tolls. My real concern is that he will be insulted with what I would be willing to pay for them. There are no boxes and condition is completely unknown. A 665 w/2046W is a nice engine and generally runs well but I already have one in excellent condition in the boxes so this would be for resale. How long might it take to sell it and for how much? $75 to $100? Here's the thing. He wants me to come and look at them as I'm the only person to have contacted him about them. 10 to 15 or 20 years ago, I would have jumped all over the opportunity to purchase this small collection.
Just my humble opinion of the state of postwar Lionel. You are free to disagree. However, I still love running them and am just going to the basement layout to find out why my 364 log loader isn't working!
This gentleman summed up the current state of postwar perfectly !
I tend to agree that the idea that postwar prices are going crazy based on an auction result is like using a single point to figure out a trend (I had a crazy mathematician try to convince me that is possible using all kinds of theory that went right over my head). It is likely what drove those prices is scarcity of some sort, given the nature of boxes maybe there just aren't too many of those, or the guy had the set and wanted the box. I have seen crazy (to me) stuff on ebay, too, where someone wanted something and was willing to pay top dollar for it.
There are also people out there who remember 30+ years ago and think Lionel is highly collectible so will go crazy with it. What I see with postwar is that unless it is absolutely mint and rare, you just aren't going to get the big prices for it from what I have seen. Operators aren't go to pay big prices, they generally are looking for things they like and want to run, not whether the brake wheel was put on backwards or something, and to an operator I would guess being pristine doesn't matter. Again, if you have something rare, like one of the "automatic train control' sets that allowed for two engines on the same track , prices could be there as a real collectors item.
I ran into a 'gentleman' (I am being kind) at the last train show I went to and he was complaining how his collection just wasn't worth what it once was, that it was unfair he invested so much, etc when he saw what prices were like. The problem is obvious, he didn't think about the laws of collecting, like 1)sometimes it is just a fad 2)long term collectability usually revolves around condition and 3)if you are collecting to make money, good luck, you'll need it.
Postwar will never be "dead", it will cool off for awhile, then a new group of people discover it for one reason or another and drive sales crazy and up goes the prices again. Its happened before, and it will happen again. As to whether it will hit the crazy levels that even common 2343's were fetching nearly $1000 for a clean AA set back in the mid 1990's, who knows? As always, the deals are out there, the folks smoking ditch weed are out there, so your mileage will vary. AD
@bigkid posted:
...I ran into a 'gentleman' (I am being kind) at the last train show I went to and he was complaining how his collection just wasn't worth what it once was, that it was unfair he invested so much, etc when he saw what prices were like. The problem is obvious, he didn't think about the laws of collecting, like 1)sometimes it is just a fad 2)long term collectability usually revolves around condition and 3)if you are collecting to make money, good luck, you'll need it.
Several of those folks have tables at York, especially in the Blue and Silver halls. I think I could wander through those halls blindfolded and point to the tables where the same stuff will be on display (I hesitate to say "for sale") year after year. Or the folks who still think that MPC boxcars are worth $20. It's worth going just for the amusement value.
It’s a huge world out there some are still thinking any post war Lionel found in the attic is a goldmine. Most likely they are uninformed and do not participate on any of the forums. They probably hear that we are now buying new steam locomotives for $2,000.00 thinking gee, my grandad’s trains must be worth a zillion bucks by now.
I can see both sides of this discussion. However, this is not a lone occurrence. In fact, all Stout auctions seem to bring out the big dollars. As mentioned, Ebay sold items do not always bring this trend to the forefront, but Stout auctions does. The high prices seem to be a trend that started a year or two ago for sure. Still, somehow, a $7400 set box seems a little high to me. Just my thoughts of course.
Jeff
This must be 1 Almost Mint Set, it’s out of my pay grade, but I’m happy for the new owner. Thanks for the information. (I prefer Lionel Legacy trains) The older trains are beautiful to see, wonderful to hold, but I’m an operator, not a collector. Happy Railroading Everyone
I think we all know that there still is demand for truly L/N to Mint super clean postwar Lionel - yesterday’s auction prices for mint stuff didn’t surprise me
What I have noticed is the prices for excellent condition - just a tick off like-new seem to be pretty strong also ???
I posted some postwar rolling stock for sale a little while back and everything sold INSTANTLY - everything was clean and boxed but again a tick off of truly L/N mint
Also no one questioned price etc - just the opposite - most of the people who purchased from me continue to get back asking if I have more to sell 😳
Guys still like Prewar / Postwar trains
@Former Member posted:If you read the details of the lot, it was part of a set break-up. The Hudson went in the next lot and the Pullmans followed that.
2148WS Box: $7,400
773 Hudson (C9/10) $5,100
3 Pullmans (C9) $4,400
Total $16,900
Stout sold a boxed 2148WS set complete with the loco and cars, rated C10, in 2017 for $11,000. The next lot after the Pullmans was a C10 Canadian Pacific F3 set for $7,300. That guy probably thought he got a bargain.
It only takes 2 people, or more likely egos, to make wild things happen at an auction.
The same guy bought all of it. He is posting about it on a group page
I paid $50 for this PostWar engine at a local show about 2 years ago......I think that was reasonable.....I believe the listed price in the '54 catalog was $43.50......I don't usually like to pay over list...
Peter
A quick update from this past Saturday’s Stout Auction - nice high quality postwar Lionel - prices looked to be really strong again
Seems like anything clean and boxed is in demand 👍🏼
The only crazy prices I've seen have been on premium condition,hard to find,C8 or better Prewar and Postwar Lionel have been realized at Stout's. It's a top notch outfit and he's great at marketing his auctions to a huge audience of active buyers. I often place bids and occasionally score a piece. I've never been disappointed. It's a great thing he's able to get premium prices for the sellers. I follow and bid at several other auction houses and the prices rarely go this high.
If you have millions or tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, as many people do, tens of thousands of dollars is pretty much pocket change 
. I've always thought that worrying about what other people spend their money on is a self-indulgent and destructive enterprise.
It's good to see that collecting postwar and prewar is healthy because that means that repros are still likely to be made in the future, and that's my main interest.
@mowingman posted:I can see both sides of this discussion. However, this is not a lone occurrence. In fact, all Stout auctions seem to bring out the big dollars. As mentioned, Ebay sold items do not always bring this trend to the forefront, but Stout auctions does. The high prices seem to be a trend that started a year or two ago for sure. Still, somehow, a $7400 set box seems a little high to me. Just my thoughts of course.
Jeff
Just my opinion, but if I was going to pay top dollar for a rare or pristine item, I'd be more likely to buy from Stout's - I have greater confidence that the item was properly described and graded than I would from an unknown seller on ebay.
@dorfj2 posted:I think we all know that there still is demand for truly L/N to Mint super clean postwar Lionel - yesterday’s auction prices for mint stuff didn’t surprise me
What I have noticed is the prices for excellent condition - just a tick off like-new seem to be pretty strong also ???
I posted some postwar rolling stock for sale a little while back and everything sold INSTANTLY - everything was clean and boxed but again a tick off of truly L/N mint
Also no one questioned price etc - just the opposite - most of the people who purchased from me continue to get back asking if I have more to sell 😳
Guys still like Prewar / Postwar trains
Joe, You and I have been running on parallel tracks for 40 years with this stuff! I remember times when there were train shows every weekend and I was buying tons of postwar trains. Then sometime in the 1990's we started to see some genuinely minty items come out for sale at pretty hefty prices. There were a few collectors/sellers we knew that we felt comfortable buying from. So, having been accruing for a while, we turned around and sold lesser quality stuff and turned maybe 3 excellent steam locomotives into one minty boxed postwar set. The size of the collection went down, but the quality went up. You and I used to say we had a successful York if we were able to add one really nice piece to the collection, and condition became everything.
As much as I'm now into modern era Lionel and the Scale Legacy side of the hobby, I sometimes can't resist a minty post war piece.
At a TCA show near Pittsburgh there was a prewar box priced at about $200+ ...
It's the same deal with Pre-War standard gauge sets .... pre Covid ...post Covid ... same tables and same trains ...
same result ... nothing sold. The mid-nineties price boom has gone along with V8 powered family vehicles !
@Putnam Division posted:I paid $50 for this PostWar engine at a local show about 2 years ago......I think that was reasonable.....I believe the listed price in the '54 catalog was $43.50......I don't usually like to pay over list...
Peter
That was a bargain for a maroon roof FM!
I guess we live in different worlds here in the model railroading universe .
Collectors willing to spend big dollars on pristine items, good for them, that's what they enjoy doing.
I, at the other end of the spectrum, went to a local train show recently and bought myself a post-war 623 switcher for $50, took it apart and cleaned it up, and it runs (almost) as good as new! And I am happy and content.
What matters is that we all enjoy the hobby in our different ways.
This is simply the same supply chain issue facing a myriad of products this Christmas season. They started talking about it at the end of the summer and here it is. It goes right on down the line from new items to used items. Look at how sky high used cars are priced due to the shortage of new ones.
John
@k-liner posted:That was a bargain for a maroon roof FM!
It certainly was!
Thank you, I was waiting to see if someone noted that!
Peter
@Craftech posted:This is simply the same supply chain issue facing a myriad of products this Christmas season. They started talking about it at the end of the summer and here it is. It goes right on down the line from new items to used items. Look at how sky high used cars are priced due to the shortage of new ones.
John
Some time back I was given, for free, a couple old, cheap, toy Christmas train sets with plastic tracks, with no use for me. When i looked up on FB market place for going value, I noticed that there were several of them listed, and nobody buying them.
I figured i will wait until closer to Christmas, and then put them up for sale, hoping for higher demand.
I sold my few pieces of nice postwar Lionel for what I thought was a fair price for buyer and seller. I have never had a lot to start with and most of it came via bargain auction buys. I have a few I plan on keeping such as the 2046 my dad got me back around 2004, the 2332, the 773, and the 736.
As others have mentioned, for average quality postwar I can hardly give it away. I'll likely donate it back to my TCA division and let them auction it off again.
@Craftech posted:This is simply the same supply chain issue facing a myriad of products this Christmas season. They started talking about it at the end of the summer and here it is. It goes right on down the line from new items to used items. Look at how sky high used cars are priced due to the shortage of new ones.
John
John,
It is, but it isn't. On brand new goods maybe. But prices on thousands of O Gauge items on the bay have doubled, and even tripled, over the last 18 months. This isn't because of a shortage. These folks have huge inventory that isn't turning over because it's priced too high.
With too many sellers the items we see today are the same exact items they were selling 18 months ago. You can see this quite easily if you picclick to browse the bay because the amount of time that items have been on the market is clearly noted in their piclick listings.
In too many cases you'll notice things that didn't sell when they were first listed, because the prices were too high, so the lister held on to them for the future. Unfortunately they won't sell now either, months or years later, especially not at two or three times the price. There's no shortage here.
Mike
I do see your point Mike. I was referring to a trickle down effect like what has happened to used cars.
John
Seems like prices took a big jump recently. Didn't even seem to be gradual.
As far as steam engines go the new LC+ 2.0 engines in this year's volume 2 catalog are at some Legacy prices from a couple years ago. It's getting to where I doubt you will get a new steam Legacy model for under $750 from here out. I'm glad I preordered my Legacy Camelback from the volume 1 catalog. List was $650. Payed around $570. Doubt you will find Legacy steam models at that price ever again.
Now I only hope it arrives......
Brad
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