Scott Mann of 3rd Rail and Golden Gate speaks

@Landsteiner posted:

Diesels only probably from now on.

That was a good listen and those guys do a great job on that podcast. It was sad but not surprising to hear about the future of their brass offerings. I was wondering if the new Allegheny would ever get made. Scott even said it would have been hard to surpass the anniversary version from ~2008.

Glad to heard ERR will be around for the time being but with the price increases it will be a bit harder to justify using their boards.

Makes sense, especially if he's sitting on thousands of chips that he already paid for.  I'll download and give it a listen.

I personally think Blunami DCC is the ultimate future for 3 rail -- it does and will continue to do more things that closed / proprietary systems can't do (custom sounds, motor tunings, you name it).  It's really exciting to watch some of these early projects coming together as they're posted to the forum -- I will probably dive in a try one myself at some point.  In the meantime, my 990 Legacy system with a spare CAB2 does everything else I want to do with trains.  That's not a knock on those going to Base 3, especially as Lionel is trying very hard to make sure that's a good platform. 

Finally -- man, when finally Scott hangs it up, for 3 rail, there will be the GGD cars and 3rd Rail locos, and then everything else.  The aluminum cars especially, as well as some of the older brass ones -- I don't ever see any other manufacturer providing that level of quality again to this market.  Consider his new lightweight aluminum cars go for about 33% more each than Lionel's generic plastic cars when you buy the Lionels in a 2-pack for $500 versus $380 for a single GGD sleeper or coach.  I'd argue there's significantly more than 33% more value there across the board -- prototypically accurate, well-researched details and colors, full interiors, fit and finish that's second to none, direct, immediate support from the manufacturer -- you name it.  Even people who don't know anything about model trains immediately see the difference.  I'm not suggesting that any model trains are a great investment, but it is pretty likely that some of those sets and engines -- especially the less popular roads where only a few units were made -- will be truly prized in the future.  Some of them are already just about impossible to find at all.

I suspect if Lionel doesn't wish to share any of their technology once ERR is gone, something like Blunami (or MTH DCS) might be a possibility.  Predictions are, of course, unreliable, especially about the future, to paraphrase Professor Berra .

I think it's pretty clear that Lionel wanted TMCC dead. I'm glad Scott can provide the ERR stuff for a little while longer. The biggest downer is the loss of handcrafted brass scale steam. The stuff Lionel did the past few years wasn't nearly as nice as 3rd Rail's. They still use that Korea Brass boiler curtain profile beneath the running boards they do in diecast.

I listened to this podcast while playing with a Blunami board on my workbench.

I enjoyed the story about how Scott ended up with ERR; some history I didn’t know. Great interview overall and makes me appreciate him even more now.

I am curious to peel the onion a bit more on why brass is becoming impossible to do now. Is it one or to principle drivers or just everything altogether that’s killed the market. The pressures against brass I see are:

1. Difficult to select a model and get that magic 250-300 orders needed to make the project profitable. Are their fewer buyers for this market than there were 10 years ago? Or has so much been done that there’s not much left to generate enough interest?
2. Related to 1, is the lower production volume driving the prices higher which further saps demand? If a project could achieve 300 orders, could the selling price actually be around $2k? This would be on par with Lionel pricing.
3. Are the builder costs rising at a higher rate for brass models and pushing the prices upward?
4. Are brass builders starting to disappear/loss of the skilled workers? Seems that the brass market has retracted considerably in recent years. The only company I see aggressively promoting brass are the Broadway Limited brass hybrid models in HO.
5. Import tariffs? What factor have these played into the higher prices we’ve been seeing for all model trains?

@Ryan Selvius posted:

I am curious to peel the onion a bit more on why brass is becoming impossible to do now. Is it one or to principle drivers or just everything altogether that’s killed the market. The pressures against brass I see are:

1. Difficult to select a model and get that magic 250-300 orders needed to make the project profitable. Are their fewer buyers for this market than there were 10 years ago? Or has so much been done that there’s not much left to generate enough interest?
2. Related to 1, is the lower production volume driving the prices higher which further saps demand? If a project could achieve 300 orders, could the selling price actually be around $2k? This would be on par with Lionel pricing.
3. Are the builder costs rising at a higher rate for brass models and pushing the prices upward?
4. Are brass builders starting to disappear/loss of the skilled workers? Seems that the brass market has retracted considerably in recent years. The only company I see aggressively promoting brass are the Broadway Limited brass hybrid models in HO.
5. Import tariffs? What factor have these played into the higher prices we’ve been seeing for all model trains?

Actually, I think many runs of brass are less than 250-300 peices.  Brass by it's nature doesn't require the huge production runs that diecast does for a new design.  However, brass being a lot more labor intensive makes it unlikely that it'll every approach the prices of a volume run of diecast locomotives.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Actually, I think many runs of brass are less than 250-300 peices.  Brass by it's nature doesn't require the huge production runs that diecast does for a new design.  However, brass being a lot more labor intensive makes it unlikely that it'll every approach the prices of a volume run of diecast locomotives.

Scott did say in the interview that he used to be able to get that many orders (90s and 2000s) for brass engines. Explains why models from that era are easier to find on the secondhand market. I think this started to taper off in the 2010s as prices started going up and production numbers started dropping, especially on the larger locomotives. I recall seeing a number of projects from this period with notices about negotiating with the builder for a low quantity build at a much higher price to the customer. I suspect the higher price killed many of these projects.

Well, I have a number of Weaver brass, they all have certificates of xx of xxx produced.  I never saw one with more than 275, and many were xx of 75, xx of 125, etc.

@Ryan Selvius posted:

I enjoyed the story about how Scott ended up with ERR; some history I didn’t know. Great interview overall and makes me appreciate him even more now.

I am curious to peel the onion a bit more on why brass is becoming impossible to do now. Is it one or to principle drivers or just everything altogether that’s killed the market. The pressures against brass I see are:

1. Difficult to select a model and get that magic 250-300 orders needed to make the project profitable. Are their fewer buyers for this market than there were 10 years ago? Or has so much been done that there’s not much left to generate enough interest?
2. Related to 1, is the lower production volume driving the prices higher which further saps demand? If a project could achieve 300 orders, could the selling price actually be around $2k? This would be on par with Lionel pricing.
3. Are the builder costs rising at a higher rate for brass models and pushing the prices upward?
4. Are brass builders starting to disappear/loss of the skilled workers? Seems that the brass market has retracted considerably in recent years. The only company I see aggressively promoting brass are the Broadway Limited brass hybrid models in HO.
5. Import tariffs? What factor have these played into the higher prices we’ve been seeing for all model trains?

1. The magic number was 75 models in brass about 6 years ago.  Getting even 75 people to agree in this market it next to impossible.
2. Labor and materials are the same cost regardless of numbers for a brass project.  It's not like a tooled plastic product that you can reuse the same tool over and over again.
3. Costs are always rising.  This is universal and not just in the train market.  Deflation is rare in general.
4. Skilled workers can be trained and there are plenty out there.  I see it more of a function of the market for brass models rather than a lack of skill.
5. Import costs are likely one of the lower factors in the cost of model trains.  Tariffs aren't excessive currently and container prices are way down from their peak during the covid years.

The biggest issue I see with brass is that the quality of plastic tooling along with cast and etched brass parts results in a better-quality model than a pure brass model.  Brass models now are done where one doesn't want to invest in tooling and doesn't plan on building a lot of models.  The reality of the marketplace is that if people were buying brass models in quantity they would be produced.  People are not.

As I've said often, there are lots of specific locomotives I'd love to see built that would likely only be done in brass.  I don't hold much hope though because I don't have 75 friends who would agree on my choices!

Having stated that, if anyone wanted to front the cost for 75-100 brass models in any road or configuration desired, it can be done.

That was a great interview with Scott. The back story with how Scott and his dad started was fascinating.

Thanks for the added insight Jonathan. I feel something has most definitely changed in the marketplace demand in the last 15 years though. From 2002 to 2012 or 2014, the 3rd Rail magazine ads were chock full of offerrings and many got produced, some in relatively large numbers it seems. He said that a typical year had 15-20 projects back then. I would venture to guess that some of the models in that era had at least a couple hundred produced based on what I see turn up secondhand. Scott was never really one to put a build number plaque on the bottom of his models like Weaver and Williams did so there is a bit of mystique around how many were produced. Anyway, perhaps prototype specific, accurate brass models are losing ground in O gauge in favor of sound and smoke gimicks. At least there are many wonderful 3rd Rail engines out there to be searched for and we should be thankful Scott had such a great run to bring these models to life.

@GG1 4877 posted:

1. The magic number was 75 models in brass about 6 years ago.  Getting even 75 people to agree in this market it next to impossible.

That sounds more like my understand of the market.  You're right about getting three people to agree 100%, much less 75 people!

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Well, I have a number of Weaver brass, they all have certificates of xx of xxx produced.  I never saw one with more than 275, and many were xx of 75, xx of 125, etc.

The Weaver brass numbers refer to the number of models produced for the # rails and road number of the model in hand.  For example, one of my Weaver PRR H10s 2-8-0's, road number 8421 is number 157 of 183.  There were 3 road numbers for the Weaver model, #8421, #7609 and #9624, and 183 copies of each road number, in 3-rail.  They also did fewer copies of each road number in 2-rail.

During the interview Scott did give some specific examples of brass steam locos and the number required to make a run feasible.  He also noted that the Allegheny just is not getting the orders required to go ahead.  I know the podcast was an hour and a half long but towards the end he commented on what has changed and why he thinks it has.

BTW Jonathan (GG1 4877) does work with Scott so his information sums it up nicely if you can't find the hour and half.  I personally found it well worth the time and may even listen again to pick-up on things I might have missed.

Also Scott mentioned that this forum is one of the best ways if you want to get something built.  Put it out here and get 75 other guys to agree to order it.  He mentions numerous times he builds what customers want.  Not a bad business philosophy if you want to stay in business.

I'd imagine demand is lower for new brass because the remaining set of "never done before" prototypes has been steadily shrinking, and all the popular products have been "taken".

I'd venture a guess that when (if?) they finish PRR #1361 Scott would have no trouble finding 300 buyers for that. Maybe also for the #5550 T1 Project. I actually think there is even a business model there to follow major steam restoration projects up with an offering of a brass model.

Also, I think as we get further from the steam era in time, there are going to be just fewer people interested in steam, which is really the only thing that "needs" brass to get the required level of detail and realism.

@MainLine Steam posted:

During the interview Scott did give some specific examples of brass steam locos and the number required to make a run feasible.  He also noted that the Allegheny just is not getting the orders required to go ahead.

I would order a full brass C&O Allegheny in the upper $2k to low $3k range, but $4700 is too steep for me.

@rplst8 posted:

I would order a full brass C&O Allegheny in the upper $2k to low $3k range, but $4700 is too steep for me.

Here's what Scott's up against there: someone can buy a great condition 20 year old brass 3rd Rail Allegheny for $600-800 at auction and for another chunk of change, do a full Legacy upgrade all-in, including parts, labor, shipping, everything.  A big articulated full Legacy conversion with all the bells and whistles is not something I'd tackle myself, so you have to be willing to wait for one of the Legacy guys to take it on (probably a couple years right now) -- but that's at least as long as orders have been accepted for this new 3rd Rail Allegheny.

I know this because that's exactly the route I went via Bruk.  Expensive?  You bet.  But still probably half the price of what 3rd Rail is charging for the Allegheny (and this isn't a knock -- it's ultra high-end and it costs what it costs), and maybe less of a wait.  I'm 100% sure it will be an amazing model if it ever gets made, probably on the order of Koh's best stuff.  But I just couldn't justify that much cash on a single engine.  For the same money you could buy an entire GGD set with a bunch of extra cars.

I enjoyed the podcast and found it interesting.  I don't mean to take over this thread...but I must emphatically state that Electric RR  NEVER received a "Cease and Desist" letter from Lionel as indicated in the podcast.  There are many parts to the Electric RR story, and if it was not for Ed Boyle of OGR, and Lou Kovach of IC Controls so long ago; I would have never experienced the opportunity to contribute to the hobby at Lionel.

jon- Founder of Electric RR and Lionel CTO

Excellent interview.

This was such a great episode, I hope Scott stops by again.

$4700 is too steep me for me as well, unfortunately. I'm considering just trying to budget for it anyway. Saving $100 a week for a year would get me there.

I also feel like the middle ground is to sell an incomplete model that just needs painted, lettered, and detailed. Most people don't have the resources to build a locomotive from scratch but many people have the resources to detail a locomotive. I wonder how much the differing elements on locomotives affect the price. Maybe building 75 of the same base locomotive would drop the price to make it more feasible.

@Landsteiner posted:

Many will be interested in and surprised by Scott Mann's comments on the Miniature Models Podcast recently.

https://www.mandmpodcast.com/

As well as some fascinating history he refutes some of the rumors about ERR components.  Apparently the radio chip went extinct so they acquired a 5-7 years supply.  He remarks, as long as we are making trains, they will continue to use TMCC/ERR. At that point, he will be in his late 60s and they will either stop making trains or move to some other system.  Perhaps Lionel will license a simplified Legacy or improved LionChief system.  He describes ERR/TMCC as extremely reliable and simple to integrate into their manufacturing.  Diesels only probably from now on.

Thank you for the post! Just a heads up that we recently changed our URL and the redirect isn't working yet.

You can find the Podcast via our new URL: www.miniaturemodelspodcast.com

I agree that was a good podcast.  I am sad about future steam projects.

I know this has little chance of happening, and it is a bit selfish on my part.  We need a steam engine that was used by multiple roads and not done before (maybe only by high end brass) to broaden its appeal.  Plus, if done in brass then road specific details can be added.  This is the USRA heavy Santa Fe 2-10-2.

The roads that had these are the Bessemer and Lake Erie (D2A); Chicago, Burlington, and Quincy (M-3); Erie (R-3); Colorado and Southern (E-5B); and Pennsylvania (N2s) then modified (N2sa).  Here is where I would hope to get road specific details:  The N2s was rebuilt to Pennsy standards with a Belpaire firebox, smokebox front, and raised headlight to become the N2sa.  Also, a doghouse was added to the tender.  Enough interest?

Additionally, there were 44 American roads that had a total of 2,179 Santa Fe engines.  Some of those might be close enough in design to the USRA version that they can also be made with little modification to the boiler and drive.  Look at the B&O 2-10-2 "Big Sixes" (S-1 class, not S).  Modify the domes and add a round tender and....  okay, I may be pushing it.  Just thinking on the key board.

Loved the podcast lots of information. I was also disappointed to hear the future of brass steam. I completely understand the business side but do wander if some years down the road if it would get the orders again. I’ve just recently started to pick up 3rd Rail brass steam, I have a challenger I really enjoy plus a set of GGD heavyweights that I need to add too so I’ve put in my first preorder in with GGD for some more heavyweights. I wish Scott the best and look forward to any products the catch my eye.

too bad I don’t do eastern roads or the Allegheny would be an awesome add to my collection.

That was an excellent interview. I too am disappointed that the future of brass models is fading fast. Scott was my last hope for a Milwaukee Road Mallet. I'm guessing that even if it were a possibility a $4700 dollar price tag is way beyond my budget.