AF Allegheny

Personally,I'd prefer something a little more common and/or "layout friendly", like a small short line Consol,Mike or Mogul...

Mark in Oregon

Not to mention A.C.Gilbert had a mockup of an Allegheny done as a feasibility study way back when. It would finally come to fruition. S is the patient scale. 

Sounds good, but how 'bout after we get a Dreyfuss NYC 20th Century Hudson.  AM got so close with the Empire Express.  Life magazine chose it as the icon of the entire 20th century, and it's been made and remade countless times in all other scales/gauges.  Patiently here we wait.  S gauge.  Builds character.  

I guess I would agree with the people that want the next steam locomotive to be a smaller unit.  The big ones are nice but are more expensive and harder to run through Flyer switches.  

Maybe even an Atlantic would be fun.  I like the idea of a streamlined NYC Hudson.  The truth of it is the Berk is what we are going to get in a second generation Legacy version.

My dream Steam for American Flyer is a GS4 in Southern Pacific Daylight colors. 

Rocco

Here we go again. If Lionel is to make a run at another Legacy scale steam engine, (After the Berk) I would think it has to have mass appeal, been used by multiple roadnames, probably not done before, and on the large side unless they've solved the electronics size problem. Steamers already produced by Gilbert or Lionel (Scale or traditional) are probably out. Obscure (don't be offended) styles of steamers are probably out also. Logically a 4-8-4 chassis that Lionel can change driver sizes and electronics on might be possible and produce a GS4, Niagra, Hudson or other versions of northerns. Multiple different bodies and tenders are needed but a common chassis and programable electronics might cut costs and produce engines available in multiple roadnames. I know we all want an engine specific to our wants but look at it from a manufacturers' perspective.

Rich

Rich

OK, so what locomotives constitute as having mass appeal? I don't have the answer but I'm sure other manufactures have been down this route and have a good idea what does. Also does it also have to be associated with multiple road use, take for example the Big Boy, single road name and small number made prototypically.

Also, you indicate that an x-8-x chassis as a generic base would be OK, but don't forget that the drivers are of a different size for many prototypes which dictates axle centres, so in reality it is not as generic and simple as you suggest. 

Unfortuantly the answer is not a simple one!

Frankly, Lionel has (or had) the perfect small steam loco usable for multiple roadnames, the USRA light Mike:

Now whether these disappeared because Legacy wouldn't fit in the tender or sales fell off a cliff, I don't know.  But there's still quite a few roadnames left that it can be offered in (and be correct or close enough.) 

Tool up a USRA heavy Mike boiler, and you have another locomotive with more roadname choices for minimal investment.

Make the wheels convert-able to scale ala the Y3 and you might even get some interest for the scale folks.

Rusty

Rusty,

There is a lot of talk off and on re the flyer hi-rail fraternity vs the scale people like you and Ed etc on a 80/20 ratio, but what does this really translate to in real terms in actual numbers of people?

If manufactures are going to want to appeal to both groups then they are going to have to work a bit harder to make suitable concessions that make one item suit everyone.

I don't know numbers, but SHS, AM, (for over 20 years...) SSA and even River Raisin (to a certain extent) managed to appeal to both the scale and Flyer/HiRail sides of the scale with acceptable compromises. 

Plus, I know there's some brass SouthWind UP/SP 2-8-0's running around out there somewhere with deep flanges and 3-position reverse units, while scale wheel, conventional DC versions are the backbone of my railroad.

If you ignore both extreme ends of the S spectrum, the chewy middle seems reasonably happy with products from the above.

Lionel did a good job with the SD70's and ES44's, flubbed on the mechanics of the cylindrical hoppers and we await to see what happens with the next run of hoppers and 57' mechanical reefers.

The scale folks that had their Y3's converted to scale wheels seem happy with them.  If the Challengers could be converted to scale wheels like the Y3's, I'd send mine off in a minute to be converted.

Looks nice in a scale environment, doesn't it?  Too bad I can't run it on my railroad...  But somehow, AM has figured out how to offer the adjacent Northern across S cultural boundaries.

Speaking of compromises, lookee here...

AC, three position electronic e-unit (both units,) deep flanges, Flyer compatible couplers:

Conventional DC, scale wheels, Kadee couplers:

Same locomotives, different markets.

It's

Not

That

Hard...

I still think it would behoove Lionel and MTH to get out of the York bubble and visit with S Gaugers and Scalers at NASG, S-Fest and S-Spree occasions and "talk to us" in person and get a first hand feel for the market, rather than the view through "I'd like to see from..." threads on a blather board.

Rusty

OK, so what locomotives constitute as having mass appeal? I don't have the answer but I'm sure other manufactures have been down this route and have a good idea what does.

Discounting previous brass offerings as they did not appeal to traditional S gaugers due to runability and price, and since Lionel must appeal to both the traditional Flyer group and those with more scalified tastes my idea of a "mass appeal" loco would be one that satisfies and appeals to both groups IE: N&W J, SP GS4,(GS3,4,6 SP, blk, bi-centennial) NYC J3, (+streamlined Hudsons) Even though there are thousands of flyer hudsons around, a scale detailed version with a centipede tender might be different enough to get the traditional guys interested. Many roadname ran different type of hudsons.  A GS4 is a reality in daylight colors, plain black or bi-centennial. Engine size is the key here. Smaller branchline type engines lack the size for electronics and the appeal to the masses even though it might be a few individuals dream engine.

 Also does it also have to be associated with multiple road use, take for example the Big Boy, single road name and small number made prototypically.

The AF big boy is a version of an undersized K line O gauge model. It was meant to test the waters in S. Multiple road names means multiple appeal to various favorite roadnames. More variations in roadnames, more sales.

Also, you indicate that an x-8-x chassis as a generic base would be OK, but don't forget that the drivers are of a different size for many prototypes which dictates axle centres, so in reality it is not as generic and simple as you suggest.

I'm not a design engineer but there has to be a way to produce a chassis part with different axle spacing to accomodate the different driver sizes. Some common parts is a savings and a benefit to the manufacturer.

Just my 2 cents.

Rich

I love the Allegheny and would like to see it in S scale.

But I'm also a realist and I think they should release more items that work over longer eras and with multiple common road names like UP and Santa Fe and Pennsy.  I think its imperative that offerings appeal to a broad group of modelers in order for S to keep up or increase its current traction.

That said, there is no pleasing everyone.  Manufacturers need to appeal to as many consumers as possible and accept that there will be complaints anyways.

How many people really believe they are going to make a "scalified" version of the berk? I know they have said they "could", but it doesn't make sense to me. It would compete with itself. The market for the set Berk is aimed squarely at the AF/Hirail crowd. Those are the same people that the "scalified" version would be targeted at. How many people are going to buy the set version and then turn around and buy a more detailed version with Legacy for $800+ ?

I hope they make as many engines as possible. I don't even care what they make at this point, but I just don't see the business case to produce two engines that are so similar unless there is a significant amount of time between them. People keep telling how small S is and that one project can "suck the wind" out of other projects. Wouldn't that apply here?

IMHO, the near-term solution would be to re-introduce the Mikados and Pacifics. IF they have the tooling. That would be a low cost to market option for them.

The only other alternative for a scale Berk is secondary market River Raisin's going for $1800 - $2200+.  So, a Y3 quality $800-$1000 scalifed Flyer version would be a bargain, even if after-market wheel conversion were factored in (if available) for us poor suffering scale guys.

I agree about the Mike's and stated so earlier.  It also applies to the Pacific's.  There's more that can be done with those, even to the point of simplifying and FlyerChiefing them, unless there's and issue with cramming in the FC electronics in a smaller model.  (Maybe that's adding to the delays of the FC Berks???) 

But seeing the last two were cancelled (WP 2-8-2 and Southern 4-6-2) they may never see the light of day again.  Who knows...

Rusty

The size of the electronics gets smaller all the time so I don't think that is a real issue like people think it is.  Something in planning now will not come out for 2 or more years.  Look at how much memory your phone, tablets, and computers have now and the size of their processors compatared a few years ago.

I feel it is not the electronics, but the cost of the engineering and castings that may be what holds Lionel and MTH from a bevy of new locomotives.  

MTH is putting new electronics in their F3 SHS shell and is planning to do the same thing for a steam engne.  Lionel could do the same thing with the Flyonel Northern shell plus the consolidation and pacific shels from the past.

Only anticipated market demand will determine the future. 

>>  There is a lot of talk off and on re the flyer hi-rail fraternity vs the scale people like you and Ed etc on a 80/20 ratio, but what does this really translate to in real terms in actual numbers of people?

This is a question that has been bounced around for many decades.  And no one really has an accurate answer.  The main difficulty is there are so many different "versions" of S ranging from AF tinplate to high-rail with minor improvements to high-rail with major improvements to AF-scale to NMRA-scale to scratchbuilt scale to narrow gauge scale to European S and even New Zealand S, and so forth. With all these versions, various S folks are scattered all over the place with different magazines, different clubs, different conventions, different locations, etc.  It is most difficult to precisely quantify how many S modelers exist on Planet Earth.

But here are some figures which are generally accepted as accurate and which might give a clue.

1.  SHS stated they had to order freight cars in production runs of at least 5,000.  Many. if not most, of their freight cars had more than one production run.

2.  The S GAUGIAN magazine (mostly AF material) has about 5,000 readers (very approximate).

3. The former 3/16 "S"cale Railroading magazine (scale oriented) had almost 2,000 subscribers plus hobby store sales.

4.  NASG membership (both AF and scale) hovers around 2,000.

5.  Various online forums focusing on S seem to have maybe 800-1,000 so-called "members".

6.  Surveys by Kalmbach (Model Railroader magazine) place S scale at about 3% or 4% of the entire hobby.  O scale is also a minority, but larger than S.  This survey probably totally misses the toy train folks.

7.  Scale S products constitute about 15-20% of the total S sales of several companies as reported by those same companies (AM, SHS, DPH, etc.).  AF-compatible would thus be 80% approximately.  Interestingly, this percentage has not varied over many decades and remains remarkably steady and consistent.  Even more interesting, is that upon rare occasion for a specific model, the scale sales can reach 40% of the total.

8.  I have never seen any figures regarding S modelers for Europe or New Zealand.  In New Zealand, S scale is the dominant size for model railroading since it can run on HO track and be prototypically correct due to the narrow gauge dimensions of the real track down there.

9.  There are enough S folks buying stuff to keep several firms actively involved in design, manufacture and sale of products.  The number and size of firms fluctuates from time to time due to retirement, illness, etc. of some of the cottage-industry proprietors.  The Sanda Kan situation in China caused a really large blip on the production curve for S.

In my opinion, asking an O gauge retail dealer anything about S gauge is a mistake.  In general, they are not in tune with S music and have little real knowledge of S.  Even today, many dealers will simply say: "American Flyer went out of business in the 1950s."

Hope this comes close to answering your question.  It isn't perfect, but it is the best answer possible given the fractured nature of S.  Being a scale type of guy, I have no idea what the "toy train" side of S has for overall numbers.  I suspect there are thousands of guys out there who are lone wolves without much interest in conventions, etc., but who buy products.  Some of these guys probably drag out the AF and run it around the tree in late December and then pack it away.  Nobody knows about them.

Cheers.....Ed L.

So it appears for S, counting crossovers and lone wolfers, we have a rather elastic number in the 6,000-8,000 range, depending on which way the wind is blowing.  I would also assume that also includes Sn3'ers.

It's amazing that any major manufacturer would want to make stuff for a market that small. Pretty much S has been supported by cottage industries.  AM and SHS have (had) bigger cottages, perhaps, but they're both peanuts when compared to Lionel or MTH. 

Which explains why most of us long timers are generally grateful when anything new comes out.

Lionel's interest in Flyer has ebbed and flowed over the past 30 some odd years, and of course, MTH is the new kid on the block.  Had Lionel's recent Flyer activity and MTH's purchase have happened 10-15 years ago, both would probably been more aggressive in bringing out S product.  But, the economy ain't what it used to be and both are more cautious nowadays. 

Even if Lionel retreats and decides to only go down the FlyerChief/Tradtional track, if it attracts new blood to S, I'm for it.   While I would like to see newbies on both the Flyer and Scale sides, I'd rather see 10 folks get interested in Flyer rather than hold my breath and wish folks would only come to the Scale side.

Rusty