I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China: when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.
palallin posted:I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China: when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.
Minimum wage in China is about $380USD a month. In the US it's about $1200. Simple math.
Will Ebbert posted:palallin posted:I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China: when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.
Minimum wage in China is about $380USD a month. In the US it's about $1200. Simple math.
Not to mention the fact that there is no OSHA, and very little EPA regulations for a small business to deal with.
Ridiculous to compare a minimum wage in China to in the US. Different economies, different lifestyles. I did read before all this happened tht labor supply was short and wages were up. Low cost manufacturing was moving out of China to Viet Nam and other places. Besides the owner of this critical plant probably got a big order to make magazines for their assault rifles.
jim pastorius posted:Ridiculous to compare a minimum wage in China to in the US. Different economies, different lifestyles. I did read before all this happened tht labor supply was short and wages were up. Low cost manufacturing was moving out of China to Viet Nam and other places. Besides the owner of this critical plant probably got a big order to make magazines for their assault rifles.
If you read what I posted previously, the owner of the factory in question (Affatech), retired. His family/kids did NOT have any interest in running the business.
Will Ebbert posted:palallin posted:I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China: when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.
Minimum wage in China is about $380USD a month. In the US it's about $1200. Simple math.
Simple math, but with a fundamental flaw, assuming that labor costs are basically the whole cost of a product, it is why simple answers often aren't. While labor costs are often the largest percent cost in a company, that doesn't mean the cost of production is linear like that and the reason for the difference in costs. Depending on the product, labor makes up a percentage of the cost, but not necessarily a big one (for example, on an Iphone, based on an article I read, the biggest cost in the unit is the chip set that runs it, labor was like 15% of the cost), the cost of the chip set was like 170 bucks or so and was something around 60% of the cost of building it.
Too, each manufactured unit has costs associated with it from the cost of the tooling, that is spread over each unit they build and sell, it is factored into the price, as is the cost of shipping, the cost of designing the unit and the tooling, the manufacturing cost (that includes of course labor, but also includes local costs of electricity, cost of space, cost of materials, etc), depreciation is factored into the cost, as if the cost of quality (basically, the cost of bad quality ie the expected cost of repairing the units under warranty, the cost of ones that come to the US DOA, are not even shipped from the factory so cannot be sold, and believe me lionel knows all these numbers). Based on similarly manufactured items, the usually estimates given are around 15-20% more cost if built in the US. Someone analyzed Stanley Tool when they moved to China, and they figured out that on an 11 buck tape measure the difference in price between US made and China was about a buck to a buck fifty (if you notice, not 44 bucks). A 1000 buck engine would likely cost around 1200 if made in the US if those numbers hold up (and I suspect they do). China has now gotten expensive enough that that gap may be even less, plus with China keep in mind the cost of shipping is going up as well as labor rates because of the cost of oil. The other thing is that China is moving upscale, workers they have that can do this kind of work want something better, and for a variety of reasons the unskilled workers from rural areas don't work the way it once did., it is why Chinese factories are moving to places like Vietnam.
The reality is that I doubt a low volume manufacturer like Lionel would move back to the US, even with labor becoming less of a factor, but the claims about labor being too expensive in the US, regulations, etc to make it affordable is not entirely true, and those numbers were from a while ago, today with the cost of chinese labor and the tightness of their labor market, it might be 10% or less difference. To bean counters and stock analysts (and sadly, the people who complain about jobs going overseas, but then want the "walmart" price on everything, are part of this) any cost, especially labor, they can get off the books, the better. What potentially could work is someone like a newfangled version of Sanda Kan, where they do contract work for a number of manufacturers, something like that might have the economies of scale to allow it to work in the US, including using automation, and also would likely have better quality control then the mishmash of factories doing the work now, not to mention reduced shipping rates, the payouts to the Chinese government that are part of almost any business there, being bound by US courts with the contracts, but I doubt after the MTH/Lionel disaster and fears of stealing trade secrets, etc, and just the wariness of the various companies, it would happen.
I may be wrong, but I believe that if you have tooling in China you cannot bring it out. It's there to stay. So, American manufacturers are held hostage by their choice to move there in the first place.
Alan
Customers are asking if this affects GGD / Sunset Models:
As for GGD / Sunset Models, we have no projects with AFFA Tech. Our factories are small, independently run assembly and finishing facilities located in Eastern China. To avoid these disruptions we compartmentalize Design, Tooling and Assembly, and control each separately, so if one goes rogue, we can shift production or tooling to another subcontractor.
Best of Luck...
Scott Mann
Confirmed list of companies known to be affected thus far:
Atlas (engines and rolling stock, track okay); Intermountain; Bowser; Fox Valley; Bluford Shops; Trainworx.
The list keeps growing.
Andre
I was joking !!
kanawha posted:I received an email from an HO mail order dealer listing the companies affected and their response.....
.....Atlas and Bowser say this affects all products announced since January 2018, …..
Ken
Thanks for posting all that, Ken.
The above quoted sentence bodes well for Atlas engines …. both O and HO. (If O scale is actually involved, anyway)
Jim
Just my two cents.
It is stated many times in this thread that Atlas Track is not affected. All I know is I have had an order in with a large supplier of Atlas track since March(?). I was originally told that it would not ship from this supplier until July. For starters, what is with That? So I call this supplier a day or so ago to find out what is the status and to order some additional pieces. Guess what? I was told that now my order won't ship until September. So manufacturing in China as far as I am concerned is a crap shoot. If I had not have started with Atlas track and now that I have acquired all the real estate in my Basement that I can afford (without a divorce proceeding), I would definitely change my mind and use a popular American made track manufacturer to supply my track "habit", I mean needs.
EBT Jim posted:kanawha posted:I received an email from an HO mail order dealer listing the companies affected and their response.....
.....Atlas and Bowser say this affects all products announced since January 2018, …..
Ken
Thanks for posting all that, Ken.
The above quoted sentence bodes well for Atlas engines …. both O and HO. (If O scale is actually involved, anyway)
Jim
I hope this is true because I have a couple of SD40's preordered from August 2016. I have some Trinity hoppers and an extended vision caboose preordered from this year's announcements but I don't mind if these are delayed.
catnap posted:EBT Jim posted:kanawha posted:I received an email from an HO mail order dealer listing the companies affected and their response.....
.....Atlas and Bowser say this affects all products announced since January 2018, …..
Ken
Thanks for posting all that, Ken.
The above quoted sentence bodes well for Atlas engines …. both O and HO. (If O scale is actually involved, anyway)
Jim
I hope this is true because I have a couple of SD40's preordered from August 2016. I have some Trinity hoppers and an extended vision caboose preordered from this year's announcements but I don't mind if these are delayed.
Frankly, anything not yet built is affected. Unless they're in a container on the dock or on the water, expect even more delays.
Plus, getting things scheduled in with a new builder isn't going to happen with a snap of the fingers. I'm pretty sure the remaining builders have full production schedules.
Rusty
laming posted:Confirmed list of companies known to be affected thus far:
Atlas (engines and rolling stock, track okay); Intermountain; Bowser; Fox Valley; Bluford Shops; Trainworx.
The list keeps growing.
Andre
TW does not.
Here we go as I light the forum fuse.......
Lionel does.
Lou N
Atlas didn't say anything about things before January being unaffected. It's a locomotive manufacturer that has the issue, stands to reason that locomotives would be affected. The SD40s were said to ship in 1st quarter 2019 several months ago. Im sure it will be a while before we see them.
Lou N posted:laming posted:Confirmed list of companies known to be affected thus far:
Atlas (engines and rolling stock, track okay); Intermountain; Bowser; Fox Valley; Bluford Shops; Trainworx.
The list keeps growing.
Andre
TW does not.
Here we go as I light the forum fuse.......
Lionel does.
Lou N
Lou, maybe I am just dense--Lord knows, it's true!--but I don't get your post. TW does not what? Lionel does what? I can't fit the syntax together. 
I don't understand Lou N's post either. One point of clarity: do not confuse Trainworx (manufactures N-scale rolling stock and other stuff) with TW Trainworx in the layout building biz.
ajzend posted:I may be wrong, but I believe that if you have tooling in China you cannot bring it out. It's there to stay. So, American manufacturers are held hostage by their choice to move there in the first place.
Alan
If the tooling was created in China, definitely. If it was shipped into China, it might possibly be retrieved. But there are very few examples of that in China, which has pretty much owned O gauge production for nearly two decades now, after Lionel announced its move in 2000.
palallin posted:I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China: when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.
Don’t be naive. Prices didn’t fall after the shift to China because Lionel increased its profit margin by reducing production costs. But the cost of production in China is rising sharply and that is pushing the price up as well.
Forgive me if I missed the answer to this question; will the factory shut-down have an effect on the Atlas O production of Master Line & Trainman freight car production ?
Jim R. posted:ajzend posted:I may be wrong, but I believe that if you have tooling in China you cannot bring it out. It's there to stay. So, American manufacturers are held hostage by their choice to move there in the first place.
Alan
If the tooling was created in China, definitely. If it was shipped into China, it might possibly be retrieved. But there are very few examples of that in China, which has pretty much owned O gauge production for nearly two decades now, after Lionel announced its move in 2000.
True. American Models (S Scale manufacturer) recovered their US made tooling after the Sanda Kan fiasco. It did take some time to retrieve it, though.
Rusty
Arthur posted:Forgive me if I missed the answer to this question; will the factory shut-down have an effect on the Atlas O production of Master Line & Trainman freight car production ?
Atlas said track is the only thing unaffected. So, yes, its O gauge train line is most certainly impacted. O gauge involves the same kind of work as the other scales.
palallin posted:Lou N posted:laming posted:Confirmed list of companies known to be affected thus far:
Atlas (engines and rolling stock, track okay); Intermountain; Bowser; Fox Valley; Bluford Shops; Trainworx.
The list keeps growing.
Andre
TW does not.
Here we go as I light the forum fuse.......
Lionel does.
Lou N
Lou, maybe I am just dense--Lord knows, it's true!--but I don't get your post. TW does not what? Lionel does what? I can't fit the syntax together.
TW layout builders does not use Affatech.
Lionel does (or did) use Affatech.
Lou N
Jim R. posted:palallin posted:I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China: when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.
Don’t be naive. Prices didn’t fall after the shift to China because Lionel increased it profit margin by reducing production costs. But the cost of production in China is rising sharply and that is pushing the price up as well.
*sigh* Yes, of course the Big Corporations' greed is completely responsible for all our woes. How silly of me to suggest that economic reality has anything to do with it.
Other companies have shown that it is possible to return/retain domestic production with reasonable prices--heck, Lionel is doing some of that themselves.
palallin posted:*sigh* Yes, of course the Big Corporations' greed is completely responsible for all our woes. How silly of me to suggest that economic reality has anything to do with it.
Other companies have shown that it is possible to return/retain domestic production with reasonable prices--heck, Lionel is doing some of that themselves.
You can be quite sure that, aside from production of select items such as rolling stock where the tooling is already here (some Lionel product, for example), you will NOT see the manufacturing of major items such as motive power return to the U.S. There may be alternative countries that can handle these things to avoid sticking with China, but I seriously doubt that any of the toy and model train manufacturers, regardless of scale, will return full production to the U.S. As desireable as that might be, it just does not make a whole lot of economic sense these days, especially since, as I understand it, toy train makers today with production in China do not even have full control/ownership over their own tooling.
Loose-Caboose posted:Just my two cents.
It is stated many times in this thread that Atlas Track is not affected. All I know is I have had an order in with a large supplier of Atlas track since March(?). I was originally told that it would not ship from this supplier until July. For starters, what is with That? So I call this supplier a day or so ago to find out what is the status and to order some additional pieces. Guess what? I was told that now my order won't ship until September. So manufacturing in China as far as I am concerned is a crap shoot. If I had not have started with Atlas track and now that I have acquired all the real estate in my Basement that I can afford (without a divorce proceeding), I would definitely change my mind and use a popular American made track manufacturer to supply my track "habit", I mean needs.
You hit that on the head. I ordered a bunch of Atlas track and switches from a major supplier. Probably, same as yours. I gave up on the switches and went to eBay for 15 of them. I got lucky and only bought 1 of the older models. It has since been replaced. I really like their track and switches. I thought their concept on track signaling was great. Got all lathered up and found out they ceased and recalled that product. I was able to work with Custom Signals to obtain what I needed. For what it is worth, talking with Stephen at Atlas, he mentioned they are coming out with the signaling again. It is supposed to be backward compatible with the older items.
Allan Miller posted:You can be quite sure that, aside from production of select items such as rolling stock where the tooling is already here (some Lionel product, for example), you will NOT see the manufacturing of major items such as motive power return to the U.S. There may be alternative countries that can handle these things to avoid sticking with China, but I seriously doubt that any of the toy and model train manufacturers, regardless of scale, will return full production to the U.S. As desireable as that might be, it just does not make a whole lot of economic sense these days, especially since, as I understand it, toy train makers today with production in China do not even have full control/ownership over their own tooling.
Allan,
A few years ago I tried to have product quoted in India only to find out that the Indians had the Chinese quote product for them.
Lou N
Allan Miller posted:You can be quite sure that, aside from production of select items such as rolling stock where the tooling is already here (some Lionel product, for example), you will NOT see the manufacturing of major items such as motive power return to the U.S. There may be alternative countries that can handle these things to avoid sticking with China, but I seriously doubt that any of the toy and model train manufacturers, regardless of scale, will return full production to the U.S. As desireable as that might be, it just does not make a whole lot of economic sense these days, especially since, as I understand it, toy train makers today with production in China do not even have full control/ownership over their own tooling.
I would also bet Lionel's U.S. made Lion Scale line won't be expanded beyond the original Weaver tooling.
Rusty
Bryant Dunivan 111417 posted:Loose-Caboose posted:Just my two cents.
It is stated many times in this thread that Atlas Track is not affected. All I know is I have had an order in with a large supplier of Atlas track since March(?). I was originally told that it would not ship from this supplier until July. For starters, what is with That? So I call this supplier a day or so ago to find out what is the status and to order some additional pieces. Guess what? I was told that now my order won't ship until September. So manufacturing in China as far as I am concerned is a crap shoot. If I had not have started with Atlas track and now that I have acquired all the real estate in my Basement that I can afford (without a divorce proceeding), I would definitely change my mind and use a popular American made track manufacturer to supply my track "habit", I mean needs.
You hit that on the head. I ordered a bunch of Atlas track and switches from a major supplier. Probably, same as yours. I gave up on the switches and went to eBay for 15 of them. I got lucky and only bought 1 of the older models. It has since been replaced. I really like their track and switches. I thought their concept on track signaling was great. Got all lathered up and found out they ceased and recalled that product. I was able to work with Custom Signals to obtain what I needed. For what it is worth, talking with Stephen at Atlas, he mentioned they are coming out with the signaling again. It is supposed to be backward compatible with the older items.
Bryant, do have an email address. I have quite a bit of 40 in Atlas straights and a fair amount of large radius curves.
David
Rusty Traque posted:I would also bet Lionel's U.S. made Lion Scale line won't be expanded beyond the original Weaver tooling.
Rusty
That is a very safe bet considering how little Lionel paid for the tooling compared to making new tooling.
Walthers said today supplier Shinohara will stop production soon. They are seeking a new vendor.
A note on USA made and designed hobby products....find JR Salvino's models on the net or FB......100% designed, manufactured and packed in very expensive Southern California.....it is being done. First plastic kit to do this in 25 years.
Lou N posted:Allan,
A few years ago I tried to have product quoted in India only to find out that the Indians had the Chinese quote product for them.
Lou N
Certainly would not surprise me, Lou.
Rusty Traque postedI would also bet Lionel's U.S. made Lion Scale line won't be expanded beyond the original Weaver tooling.
Rusty
I wouldn't take that bet because I believe you are probably right. New tooling is a big investment, and it takes a good amount of time and a lot of sales to recover that amount.
AMCDave posted:Walthers said today supplier Shinohara will stop production soon. They are seeking a new vendor.
A note on USA made and designed hobby products....find JR Salvino's models on the net or FB......100% designed, manufactured and packed in very expensive Southern California.....it is being done. First plastic kit to do this in 25 years.
OK, so how much are those "kits", and what scale are they?
Hot Water posted:AMCDave posted:Walthers said today supplier Shinohara will stop production soon. They are seeking a new vendor.
A note on USA made and designed hobby products....find JR Salvino's models on the net or FB......100% designed, manufactured and packed in very expensive Southern California.....it is being done. First plastic kit to do this in 25 years.
OK, so how much are those "kits", and what scale are they?
The kits MSRP is about 10-15% more than China produced kits but I got mine from a online seller at the going average cost. The cars are 1/25 scale or about the size of a O 40ft box car....lots more parts count. thx
AMCDave posted:Hot Water posted:AMCDave posted:Walthers said today supplier Shinohara will stop production soon. They are seeking a new vendor.
A note on USA made and designed hobby products....find JR Salvino's models on the net or FB......100% designed, manufactured and packed in very expensive Southern California.....it is being done. First plastic kit to do this in 25 years.
OK, so how much are those "kits", and what scale are they?
The kits MSRP is about 10-15% more than China produced kits but I got mine from a online seller at the going average cost.
Please provide actual dollar amount, as I'm not familiar with any "China produced kits".
The cars are 1/25 scale or about the size of a O 40ft box car....lots more parts count. thx
I'm confused,,,,,,,,what does "1/25 scale" have to do with 1/48 O scale?
Golferdg posted:Bryant Dunivan 111417 posted:Loose-Caboose posted:Just my two cents.
It is stated many times in this thread that Atlas Track is not affected. All I know is I have had an order in with a large supplier of Atlas track since March(?). I was originally told that it would not ship from this supplier until July. For starters, what is with That? So I call this supplier a day or so ago to find out what is the status and to order some additional pieces. Guess what? I was told that now my order won't ship until September. So manufacturing in China as far as I am concerned is a crap shoot. If I had not have started with Atlas track and now that I have acquired all the real estate in my Basement that I can afford (without a divorce proceeding), I would definitely change my mind and use a popular American made track manufacturer to supply my track "habit", I mean needs.
You hit that on the head. I ordered a bunch of Atlas track and switches from a major supplier. Probably, same as yours. I gave up on the switches and went to eBay for 15 of them. I got lucky and only bought 1 of the older models. It has since been replaced. I really like their track and switches. I thought their concept on track signaling was great. Got all lathered up and found out they ceased and recalled that product. I was able to work with Custom Signals to obtain what I needed. For what it is worth, talking with Stephen at Atlas, he mentioned they are coming out with the signaling again. It is supposed to be backward compatible with the older items.
Bryant, do have an email address. I have quite a bit of 40 in Atlas straights and a fair amount of large radius curves.
David
Thanks for reacing out. I did get the track from the dealer, but had to get the switches on EBay. I am good for now. Thanks for asking.
It's funny Allan, how every manufacturer talks about the high cost of new tooling, yet there are always modelers in the hobby who argue that point. Not only is it the high costs of the dies themselves, but the research and development that has to be done first, especially for a scale product. And then there's the cash outlay for all of that, which means that has to come out of the profits of other products.
Well, this isn't China, but this just appeared a few hours ago. Bear in mind this is a basic traditional box car without all the added detail parts (added assembly time) of the usual scale product. And yet this is still quite time consuming. I dare not even think of something like a locomotive. Also consider that with US production, you are still dependent on foreign made components: In this particular case, the truck sets. On a locomotive - even the most basic starter LionChief type - you would need all the circuit boards of every type, the motors and the trucks all stocked up before you could begin any production run.
Any US made production like this is great. But you are still in need of foreign made parts, which also adds to cost as all those components have to be shipped to the US.
Rusty Traque posted:I would also bet Lionel's U.S. made Lion Scale line won't be expanded beyond the original Weaver tooling.
Rusty
You'd lose that bet. Lionel has already shown that to NOT be the case. Look at the most recent Lionel catalog. They have an ACF 3-bay hopper in there that is NOT former Weaver tooling. It's been in the Lionel line since the 1980's. It's now being made in the USA again.
Stu
