So I think why the universal remote is jumpy coming from center-off is because of how they implemented a mechanical center detent.
See there’s a rib cast into the the lower portion of the knob that interfaces with the hill and valley on that tab above the announcement/shift button on the remote. I think it feels terrible. It requires too much force to snap the knob into center, feels very notchy, and actually gives you a double hit going into off - first when the rib hits the hill on the tab, then again as the rib pushes down the tab and you snap into the valley. Coming off of center, I think the spring force of the tab on the rib is what’s kicking you to a higher than expected speed.
Better implementations of this kind of mechanical detent might use a v or u shaped spring that pops into a single valley - no hills. I have an ancient Fleischmann starter set controller that does this, even with their plastic construction and knob.
If you like the current knob shape, feel and finish, try drifting the knob out to reduce or eliminate the mechanical interaction. If that satisfies you, you can leave the knob shifted out like that, or shave down the rib. I tried that and it definitely reduced the force to click in and out of center, but it still felt notchy/scratchy to me.
Two concerns about adjusting the taper of the pot on the universal remote are that it’s for multiple engines, so one size may not fit all nicely (of course back in the old days ALL analog train controllers have this issue - you are adjusting TRACK voltage, not necessarily engine…); and that presumably interpreting the value coming off the pot is under software control before going out to the engine. So adjusting it now to feel good might end up feeling lousy if Lionel updates that part of the remote firmware. Then again, it’s a 50 buck remote so no great loss, but I thought I should mention it.
In the end, I’m going to replace the knob, pot, adjust the taper, all as described above.