Is our hobby doomed?

Why does everything have to have a "goal?"

Sometimes it's nice just to "zone out" and run the train.  It's the best therapy in the world.

Rusty

Perhaps you should have asked, "what is the goal of an artist painting a picture?" After all a digital photo would be so much more accurate, as well as easier, right? 

My goal  is just to have fun. although I don't run tinplate the goal is the same with my hi rail layout. Some people just don't get it.

I told her it was satisfying and therapeutic and gave me a sense of euphoria.

Perhaps this woman has no hobby?  Or perhaps she's "results driven" having a career that like any is driven by personal, organizational, and professional goals?  There are people who'd find a hobby (any hobby) just the thing to break away from the daily requirements and stressors of life.  Maybe I'm reading too much into this but that's my perspective.

I doubt that the hobby is doomed.  Yes, it has changed in many ways from the days I started in the 1950's as a pre-schooler.  I have friends who are in their teens and who either model or railfan.  Maybe the collecting of early models from the postwar years and earlier is diminishing to some degree but I think the rest is alive and well.  Younger modelers are enjoying the latest controls and the modern era.  Just observe who the participants are at shows.

Meanwhile for me, the worrys and world problems and politics fade away even when I hold my favorite model in my hands.  My favorite?  Whatever one I happen to be holding at the time. 

Modern high tech trains may be ok for a while, but I think post war trains and that side of the hobby is in serious decline. So many old guys who were the back bone of the hobby are gone now or getting too old to actively be involved like they used to. Some of the guys who did restoration painting are gone or have quit now as have some of the vendors of parts. Many old repair guys are gone as well or retired. I don't have to tell you how many stores have closed up. I have not yet been to York, but read many posts about it being much less than the old days. I personally think that the price of the new stuff and the economy will bring down the modern side too.

Rob

I think that eventually any hobby is pretty much doomed.  I don't mean that to sound pessimistic because things change and I think that is good.  Is it going away in our lifetimes?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Is it interesting to speculate what it might be like?  Sure.  But let's just enjoy it ourselves and not be too worried about the future.

Eric S., I can't think of a hobby right now that has become extinct in the past years, but I also think that any kind of model building will endure.  It seems to me that people will always want a model when they can't have the real thing such as our trains, planes, cars, etc..  A good example of model hobby endurance goes back to the ancient Egyptians who built boat models.  Let's take note of toys that are currently offered.  The art imitates life, and I think almost any youngster will eventually want to relive the joys of their childhood toys.  I also think that as long as trains are around there will be people making models of them.  Maybe 300 years from now people and freight will be electronically tele-transported.  Then what?  LOL!  Meanwhile let's just enjoy playing! 

Doomed? No! Destined to change, yes. Have the "glory years" gone? Define glory years, the glory years of standard gauge were probably over in the 60's or 70's, but then again MTH wasn't making repros then, so maybe we are in the glory days of standard gauge now. The glory years of post-war probably died in the 80's or 90's. But, with all the technology and detailing in today's production, I think we are in a glory years period of the overall hobby now. One thing is for sure, no matter how the hobby changes there will always be a remnant in all categories. Just look at Civil war rein-actors, that happened almost 150 years ago, yet there are folks dedicated to keeping the memory alive 

I started with a small setup in my basement circa 1985, The kids were 1 and 3 years old. My father-in-law was an antique dealer and came across many trains. For birthdays and holidays he would always have a few of them for me.  As years went by neither of the kids stayed interested so when they were about 12 I packed it all up. Fast forward 15+ years, the kids are gone and now they want a train set for their houses.

Almost two years ago I re-opened the train boxes and started getting sets ready for each of them. I even put a set around my tree. My wife watched as I sat at the table while she read and I cleaned and oiled and tested train after train. She realized how much I was enjoying myself and she suggested after Christmas I put up a layout in the basement (new house).

I had no idea how far the industry had come in those twenty odd years. In the last two years I switched to totally Legacy and DCS and have spent hundreds and hundreds of hours on my layout. The kids love coming over now and seeing what I have added (they are 25 and 27). They help me with the electonics and the scenery construction. They can't wait for the Holidays to put a bigger and better track under their own trees.

My point is as long as people are exposed to things when young it remains in their head and bcomes a cherished memory. When they get older and have time, room and a few bucks they will want to relive those memories. Show as many young people as you can you layouts. Plant the seed.

My grandkids can run the DCS and Legacy better than me!!! (kidding)

Jeff

My son-in-law bought my grandkiddies (a girl 7, and boy 4) Lionel's Polar Express and they love it!  BTW, They call me Grandpa Choo-Choo!  They along with my nephews one Haloween enjoyed having an AF train of gondolas stopping in front of them to retreive the candy in the cars!

As long as we keep building, buying, operating and collecting, the hobby is not doomed. Will it change, yes, but all great organisms must adapt and change and like any organism, our hobby is a living breathing organism made up of the people who make up this great hobby.

All thebest,

Miketg

No doubt as our aging population is continually subject to natural attrition (death! ), there will be many FEWER folks in the hobby of toy trains. 

Let's face it: it is a vastly different world than the forties and fifties, and with passenger trains being far less visible to the younger generation (except for the NE Corridor and larger cities).

There are countless more distractions and entertainments available than in OUR time (I am almost 70).

No doubt, the tinplate hobby will survive, but with far less participants than at present.

I would not say doomed.  I would say, "It's gonna change!"

"Doomed" for some, I suppose, but certainly not doomed for me.

Yes, it is changing and will continue to do so.  That's why I always advise folks to take advantage of the bounty that is available NOW!

Tinplate Art,

You and I are about the same age. We have seen this hobby change over the years. It will continue to change as you say. It is up to all of us to plant as many seeds as we can in the young ones.

Many "Baby Boomers" are retiring now. Many of these are going back to what they remember from their youth. Maybe their Grandfather or Fathers toyed with trains. MTH is selling more and more tinplate trains. Someone more than us old folks are buying tinplate.

There is no question that the long term outlook for toy trains is grim.  As pointed out above the old timers (like myself) are vanishing and not being replaced even one for one.  TCA membership is declining.  Train show attendance seems to be declining as well.

Most of the action is on the internet and at auctions.  Ironically it is the best time for

those who want to get into the hobby.  Prices are down, down, down.  I've found new in the box high quality trains (e.g. Right of Way) at 60-70% off the original prices.  Almost everything but extremely rare or mint in the box items can be purchased at least at 40 percent off prices ten years ago.  The answer is obvious. There is a huge supply and for many categories low demand.  So enjoy your trains, but don't count on them to finance your retirement.  Lew Schneider

Doomed for whom? Personally, it's not and on a larger scale, doomed compared to what? There are enough toy trains circulating now probably to encircle the globe ten times over. Doomed in popularity? Frankly, who cares? All the toy trains are not going to die off in some catastrophic extinction process. I think doomed is an obvious over the top and melodramatic statement. The skies falling..I think not. Calmer heads will prevail and if they did, they would realize folks still collect what have you that have long since gone the way of the dinosaur. New products dying on the vine? Yes, it already happening. I think MTH and Lionel will eventually merge to fight off Bachman as sacrilegious as that sounds to partisans of both. Dividing the market at some point won't make economic sense and we see the early signs of that. They and we made this a collectors market for adults with money falling out of holes in our pockets..for expensive toys...that are becoming increasing much like a niche similar to collecting art or what have you. and the rare will become rarer and more costly. Even whats cheap is expensive. We got what we asked for and that might be the crux of the dilemma as far anything being doomed..if only a few can afford new product..duh..it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out where it's going ( more of the same)until the market shrinks as the costs rise. To use a ten cent word...Sort of a Malthusian dilemma.

He who expects to retire on the sales proceeds of his Lionel collection acquired for top-dollar in the 1990's is likely Doomed.

Everybody else should be just fine.

I highly doubt the hobby will die. Thin out a bit? Maybe, but not die out.

Their are many new people in the hobby, all for different reasons. Some prefer the traditional trains, while some prefer the modern scale trains with all the features. I think in 30 years people will get into trains as they remember liking trains when they were a kid (lets face it, even if a kid doesn't see a train in person often, they are still on tv, in books, and in movies, not to mention all the other toys that they get that are trains). They will probably first get involved into the modern engines with the latest in electronics, but then a train will come along that is older, and it will catch their eye. They will buy it, and if they like it, they will buy more of the older trains.

I mean that's kinda how I got into older trains. I'm 22, and my first older train was a Lionel 675, followed by my Grandfather's 265E.

For the Collector, it's the best time to buy in about 40 years.

For the Operator, it's the best time EVER.

Does anyone remember way back in CTT magazine the article about the "Mayor of Plasticville?"  The man featured was Bill Nole.  Yes, he did amass a huge collection of Plasticville when the getting was good, and he later stated in the article that this was his retirement to, I believe, Arizona.  I see his ebay auctions today and he seems to be doing quite well selling off many rare and pristine items.  I give the man credit for his savvy, but it's a tough guess as to when it'll all pay off along with collecting Social Security benefits or retirement funds.  I'm on a fixed income now myself supplementing income by cleaning house becoming bare-bones to just enjoy the American Flyer I love.  At one time I thought this would be retirement income too but I realized that I'm not in the hobby to make money.  My heirs can get what they can for something I enjoyed.  There'll be no U-Haul trailer hitched to the hearse.

And, really, what's "The Hobby"?  Hoarding dozens of unopened boxes of each item Lionel produced?  Finding one of each of every variation of hundreds of boxcars?  3-rail Scale model railroading?  Playing with colorful and fun Toy Trains and operating accessories?  Buying & selling & haggling & complaining about prices, etc.?

Unless one had a crystal ball in 1969, one would think everything was over for Lionel and Flyer with only HO available for model railroading.

And as far as getting young people into the hobby, "Thomas the Tank Engine," "The Polar Express," and "Harry Potter" did more to create interest in trains than any amount of advertising or promoting by manufacturers or enthusiasts possibly could in decades.

I can think of two examples of hobbies that died and one that sputters along long past the last real people to experience them in real life have died off.  How many younger people make models of sailing ships?  Sailing ships are more rare than steam locos.  And how about collecting Beanie Babies?  Beanie Babies?  What are they?  Some hobbies die out and some keep on.  Also what about photography?  My brother in law and my buddy can't hardly buy film for their large cameras and have trouble getting it developed.  Heck, I donated a complete home movie set up including camera and projector to the University of Georgia because it used 9.5mm film.  Who knows what new hobbies will rise up?   Odd-d

IMHO, doomed to change (as with every hobby) is more accurate. Anyone such as myself who's has been involved with photography, film and eventually video since the mid 1960's has experienced the evolution we hobbyists have lived through with the onslaught of technology gradually encroaching upon, then usurping and finally eclipsing and moving aside the traditional equipment and methods of those  days. For many of the photography purists of the 1990's, photography as an art form was surely doomed  but as we all see these years later - such isn't the case for photography. Rather, it is thriving with a renaissance few, if any back then ever thought would happen.

So while model railroading of the future will most likely not closely resemble what it is today, let's all hope it will be equally exciting and awe inspiring to future railroading hobbyists and enthusiasts.  

I don't think it's going to die out any time soon.  Playing with trains is a hobby enjoyed by people around the world not just this country, which is why MTH has gotten into the European market.  If you mean tinplate specifically (which I think you do since you're quoting the Tinplate Legends DVD), I think the hobby might have been headed that way if it weren't for Mike Wolf.  If there is no new tinplate being produced then the hobby would eventually die because there is only a finite amount of original pieces in existence and when one of those finally gives up the ghost they are gone forever.  Now there are a lot of original pieces still out there so it'd take a long time for them all to rust away or be thrown away by people who are cleaning out their Dad's or Grandpa's homes after they pass.  The new tinplate (reproductions) is keeping the tinplate segment of the hobby alive by getting new blood into the hobby, like me.  If it weren't for the new stuff I'd probably have never been exposed, at least in person, to tinplate, and that exposure over time made tinplate grow on me.  In fact, it's grown on me so much I now have more tinplate than any other type of trains.  And as for continuing the hobby in the next generation, my 7 year old son has his own set of trains, an Ives Standard gauge passenger set. 

John.

I'm with Odd-d on this one. How many people are restoring Model T Fords today, for an example. Not many, because hardly anyone was around when they were on the road. The trains kids see these days are boring. No caboose, most of the rolling stock on any given train is the same (all grain train, all auto hauler train, all coal hauler train). The box cars with their road names and build date are gone. Same for reefers. None of today's kids have ever seen a working steam engine, an F series diesel, swithers working a yard,  a GGL or some of the other locos we find interesting. And who among us really bgot interested in model railroads from playing with a Thomas the tank engine toy like train? I say enjoy the hobby now, don't expect it to exist forever, don't expect your investment in your trains to ever be returned to you, and have fun running them!

When the motion picture industry and others market a train theme it could spark an interest for younger potential model railroaders.  That's a good thing.  In 1972 I was convinced by the owner of the LHS to convert my AF into HO because that was the way the hobby was supposedly going.  Of course it meant sales for him.

In the '80's and '90's I think we can safely say that a collectible market may have been driven by those who wanted to relive their past by collecting their old trains and a bonus of trophys such as MIB.  But along came the internet and ebay and many thinking that train set was worth megabucks.  That was until the market was flooded with identical or common items.

Just recently I looked over an AF set of common pieces that I already have with the idea of upgrading a few of my pieces and then ebaying the rest.  I made my offer and even showed the non-railroader owner what his small collection of pieces was fetching on ebay.  He still believes it's worth about 5 times as much according to someone who told him so.  Needless to say he's going to continue sitting on it.    

mikal

Stop trying to cheer us up.

mikal, my son's interest was sparked by watching Thomas the Tank engine and later playing with Thomas the Tank engine wooden toys.  Also, at the Railroad museum in Union Il, their busiest days of the year are by far the "Day out with Thomas" events where they have a Thomas train running that the kids can go for a ride on.  I think Thomas is definitely a good thing for the model train hobby.

John.

Let's face it, we're all doomed.  It's just a matter of when and where the Grim Reaper strikes.  Best to enjoy what you have while you have it, and not worry overly much about the future of this hobby or most anything else (aside from maintaining your own health for as long as you can).  Don't worry; be happy!  

quote:

Also what about photography?  My brother in law and my buddy can't hardly buy film for their large cameras and have trouble getting it developed.  Heck, I donated a complete home movie set up including camera and projector to the University of Georgia because it used 9.5mm film.

Photography is alive and well. Most people are using digital cameras.

As far as the future of model railroading and train collecting goes.... WHO CARES!!!!!!

Most folks would have considered it to be a dead hobby when I started 40 plus years ago.

The big guys could all shutter their businesses tomorrow, and many of us would not be impacted.

Allan, good point!  Why should we worry about the future of the hobby after we're gone?  We have lived the best parts of it as we know it.  Good health, family ties, community, et al are just as important if not more so.  We have to adapt back to the early mentality we had when we were kids getting something new for Christmas or birthday.  We got spoiled when we could afford to buy all that we wished for. Unfortunately we lost all of that innocence somewhere along the way and forgot to play!

Phil

I'm busy now trying to reconcile those two views.

Having a psych background, I think I just found a new money-making opportunity in the model railroad world.  LOL!

Nothing is doomed.  You can get what you want out of this hobby.  There are so many facets to explore and enjoy.  I prefer my hyperbole to be in the positive vein.  I have found that having a negative outlook on things isn't real healthy, nor productive. If you can't find satisfaction, go fly a kite. 

Actually, photography is doing OK.  Film cameras are "craft tools" rather than snapshot takers for the masses.  Super-8 sales for Kodak were flat for many years -- amazing when one considers that it's a small market that buys a lot of film rather than the mass market buying a little each.  Regular 8mm is available but 9.5 was always a small niche product.  Also, 110 cartridges have just been reintroduced after being unavailable for about a decade.  

40 years ago, it would be a good bet to say that "Those big trains will never be made again -- it would just cost too much!"  And while a smart bet, then, it would also be wrong.  Whatever qubbles I might have with MTH Tinplate, I do find it remarkable that it is available at such a reasonable (relatively speaking) price.