Is our hobby doomed?

While "Thomas" certainly didn't exist until recently, I would hardly hold up Lionel so-called classic era and most of Marx as true-to-life models.

Yes, in the LONG run, we're all dead.  Better to focus on the not-so-distant future.

And not many layouts running Carlisle & Finch with battery power.

Let's put it this way:

 

The last model railroader on earth is going to have one heck of a collection!

 

Rusty

Rusty-  You are right on Traque again!  That's beautiful.  That cracks me up.  I guess I should say LOL to be politically correct?...

When Louis Hertz died, he had one of the largest toy & train collections in the world -- perhaps THE largest.  And there is so much more that one might collect today.

Doomed? I'd say no. However, I just bought a PRR Caboose off of eBay today from a mother that was selling her 8 yr old son's trains because "he had out grown them". If you buy your children trains, you actually need to interact with your children.

 

Buy them a video game system and you can plop them in front of your TV and watch their brains turn to mush. The next thing you know, you'll have a 30 yr old hanging around still doing the same thing.

 

From the reaction to our modular layout, children still LOVE trains. It is their parents that can't be bothered. I for one am determined to be the crazy old grandpa with the cool train set....

tomorrow is doomed

when the sun sets

Actually, she is a Forensics Trace Examiner for a CSI Lab. So "results driven" is correct.

Frankly, I think the best thing would be to make the gift of a train set  the Official-40th-Birthday Gift.

Compared to the late 1990's, great time to be a collector. But, maybe 10 years or so from now will be an even better time? I'm 46. At spring York I purchased a repop standard gauge bumper which I had to carry around with me for a couple of halls. I got several comments about how nice it was to see such a 'young' man into standard gauge! Am I bringing up the rear?!? Thank God Mike Wolf loves standard gauge!

I went to my first TCA convention in 1973 and was dazzled by the great Standard Gauge there -- remember seeing the JAD Hiawatha for the first time, though that might have been two years later in Orlando.  I was just a kid in those days, and the only other guy even close  to my age was a fellow named Mike who worked for Jerry Williams.

Our hobby is absolutely doomed.

The end, in fact, is imminent.

I suggest you sell me your trains at a large discount right away.

Oops, I forgot to add that the 30,000 people who attend the Big E in Springfield are also interested in your trains !

 

Scrappy

A Lionel North Pole Central Starter Set got me back into the hobby. It was the first one since the American Flyer Set that I had back in the late 50's. I had been thinking about stopping into a hobby shop for quite a while but never did mostly because of the publicity in the 90's about the high train prices.

 

I would have a lot more cash (or probably some other kind of hobby) if I hadn't bought that starter set from my local train pusher (I mean dealer) a few years ago.

 

IMO Christmas starter set are a great recruiting tool for keeping the hobby alive. Some will only buy at Christmas but a few will get the fever and buy trains year round.

 

Many people who would not buy just a regular train set will buy a Christmas set.  It makes sense, as it counts as Holiday Decoration.  But then there are add-ons & accessories, so more sales for Lionel, more fun for the buyers, and a possible continuing interest in toy trains and/or model railroading.

yes.....

The hobby evolves....

 

Hobbyists die.

That makes me think of an old Twilight Zone episode (I think it was one with Burgess Meredith) where this devout book-reader never has time to read all the great books that he would like.  Some global catastrophe ensues...he's the last man on earth...he rejoices in the fact that now he can do all the reading he wants, undisturbed....and then he breaks his last set of reading glasses.

 

I could imagine a similar episode where  the last model railroader on earth wakes up from a natural disaster to find himself with all the model trains he ever wanted, access to the biggest layout he could hope for...only to learn there's no power to run anything!

 

- Mike

In response to Mike, I was in my LHS yesterday, and he had just received the first shipment of 410 plastic models, with another 600 or so to follow, from a guy whose wife demanded he get rid of them.  She calculated if he built one a week it would take him over 90 years to build them all.  And he just got transfered out of state for an undetermined amount of time.  She said- out!  Poor guy.  I have to admire his ambition, if not his choice in spouses.

Somebody said that now is a great time for time for collectors. Well, in my view it will get better everyday. Remember the 70"s? People were giving O gauge stuff away at garage sales, because nobody wanted it. As time passes, and us older guys leave the scene, demand will go down and so will prices. I think sometimes we forget how much this hobby can cost. ($1000.00 for a loco, $65.00 for a simple piece of rolling stock) Compare that to HO or large scale. There is a RC tank group around here. Those guys have all metal, electronic tanks with sound and smoke, with a system that provides for a tank which is hit by a beam from the gun of another one to turn off and go quiet. The price for one of these? Less than $1000.00 by a long shot. That's all you really have to spend. Compare that to what we pay for just a loco.

So true Gilly, so true. Any kids, boys and girls, love trains when they get to see them.

And even better, play with them. MTH's See It Hold It Run It (SHR) program is a step in the right direction, and clubs need to be more willing to attract junior members, (and their dad's and grand dads). Thomas has played a huge part over the past 30 years just raising little kids awareness of trains, but, ultimately, it's the parents who can guide their children, pity is some don't give their kids the time. That's why the video games are such a success.

Come on, guys!

 

You are joshing, right! Get out of your basements and into the light! Have you never been to an Annual Holiday Train Show? I have run 4 so far! 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011!

 

They get more and more popular as they go! The kids were jumping up and down they were so excited! The parents were pleased to as kids of all ages ( 3 to 93) got a chance to interact with each other at Clove Lakes Health Care Facility on Staten Island last year. I had the best time of all being frustrated at the age of 10. Free parking ---free admission.  Free pictures with Santa and Mrs. Claus!!! What's more fun than free????

 

This year it will be even greater!

 

When you mix your family business (running a nursing home) with your newly rediscovered passion collecting and running toy trains only good can come from it, especially when you raffle $200.00 toy train sets for a dollar.

 

Even if you don't spend a dime, you are guaranteed to have a good time. If you don't believe me why don't you stop by December 8th and 9th!

 

Mike Maurice

I think the Hobby faces some tough[er] times due to the long drawn out recession and economic uncertainty that prevails looking ahead. IMHO not a good time to objectively assess the long term strength of the O-gauge Hobby. 

The key to the hobby IMO is demonstration. The Manufacturers need to work with the local clubs, organizations, county fairs, malls, etc... to set-up, display, and get the potential newbie involved. Nothing sells a product better than a hands on live demo. 

 

I live in northern Ohio and the thing that hooked me was the local train stores having open houses where either factory reps and or local experts would let you touch, feel, and smell. I'm actually thinking of starting a group in the Cleveland area that would get together every few months at somebody's house with a lay-out so we can learn more hands on idea's and tips about O gauge railroading. 

 

My nine year old loves his trains as much as his video games and other activities. He goes out of his way to help me work on "our" lay-out. I always want him to feel that the lay-out is all of ours so when he gets older he'll do the same for his children. 

I share that viewpoint.

 

.....you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink!

Im finding out times change and so do what people collect ...at least in my house !

 

 

When I was 12 I was buying trains...that is when I could get a ride to a train meet usually somewhere in Union County NJ...living in Middlesex County my father was troubled and not overly enthusiastic about making that trip on a Sunday afternoon...but he would take me most of the time and wait in the car.

 

He didn't "embrace"my hobby but he supported it with his rides to meets.

(and a couple of ten dollar bills sometimes)

 

I have a 13 year old son who collects game systems from the 70s and 80s...Sega,Mattelavision,Atari and some others I cant even name...

I personally do not get it...but when he finds some old system on Craigslist that he wants and its in Fairlawn (or some other Nothern NJ town) my 80 year old father is quick to remind me what he did for me.

 

I have tried to keep his interest in trains alive...he has been to the last 10 Yorks ...

but lately I think its mostly just to blow off school twice a year on a Friday.

 

BT

Cost is relative. It can be expensive if you let it, but every hobby has a price. You can do this hobby at any level, but if you struggle with the concept of spending $500 on a train, and love state sets, you will find yourself disappointed. If you can be satisfied with Lionel Jr, Marx, etc, you can build a nice collection.

 

I do agree with the notion that when older collections are liquidated in larger numbers, supply goes up, and prices go down. But then the supply disappears, and sooner or later prices creep up again. Most collectibles do that.

 

Anyway, there's nothing really for us to worry about. The longevity of the hobby will exceed ours.

You can also pick up quite a few $1,000 locos for around $300 as long as you buy carefully and away from the market.  Every year the supply increases yet the demand stays flat at best.

That's true for modern stuff because most of it is in relatively the same condition, and there's a lot of it. It's a bit more complicated for originals, where any number of the same piece can vary greatly in price, mostly due to condition. An example of an original item can be worth $50, and another example of the same item can be worth $1000. But generally, a $50 original will always be relatively worth $50, and the same can be said for the $1000 item over the long haul. Generally, they creep up at a slow rate over time, when you look at a long trend, though.

>>>>You can also pick up quite a few $1,000 locos for around $300 as long as you buy carefully and away from the market.  Every year the supply increases yet the demand stays flat at best.

That's true for modern stuff because most of it is in relatively the same condition, and there's a lot of it. It's a bit more complicated for originals, where any number of the same piece can vary greatly in price, mostly due to condition. An example of an original item can be worth $50, and another example of the same item can be worth $1000. But generally, a $50 original will always be relatively worth $50, and the same can be said for the $1000 item over the long haul. Generally, they creep up at a slow rate over time, when you look at a long trend, though.<<<<

 

quote:

The way I see it, the playbook for forecasting the future of O gauge as it nears a complete transition from collector to a operator based market has yet to be written.

 

The demand for newly made product probably has shifted from collector to operator. I am not so certain about the hobby as a whole. Live auction and Ebay prices on high grade prewar and postwar Lionel trains are still astounding. Like it or not, there is a correlation between price and demand (interest).

 It's really a good question,one that I don't want to ponder too much because I see it everyday when I go downstairs.But not everyone gets to see model trains.And that's part of the problem with the hobby is the exposure.

  You go to retail stores and all you see is video games and anything related to them.Where are the trains ?

 Sure during Christmas , really before around Thanksgiving you will see some at the major retailers and such,but no other time.

 If the manufacturers would just put the little extra effort into more shelf and display time I think it would gain the interest of more people with the " New, neat, techno trains " that we have on the market today.Sounds like a video game ad almost doesn't it 

  We will see a decline in the hobby if us the consumer and them the manufactures of the trains let it happen.We have to share and show ,they have to display and sale.

  I go to train shows/sales around Thanksgiving time to Christmas,and see all kinds of young children and young adults who seem fascinated by our beloved hobby but that fascination runs out when they leave,and why ? Because the exposure ends there !

 And where are the commercials ? I'd love to see a commercial from Lionel showing their Legacy System.Could you imagine during Saturday morning children's programming a train commercial ?

      So there is the key to saving our hobby in my own opinion.If you have a layout or are involved in a club,support showing trains to those who otherwise would not get to see them. 

I find it intriguing that so many people seem to be in denial of the future. Toy trains are not cool with many kids today and won't be to the extent they were in the 30's, 40's and 50's. That isn't to say that toy trains will become extinct, they will just contract to a much smaller customer base.

 

When my two boys were small I used to get my Flyer out with the accessories and let them play with it. As they got older the interest waned and when I asked why they replied that they are sort of fun to play with but it gets boring after a while. I could see their point bit I see the hobby from a different perspective to them.

 

What kids want today are greater challenges and ease of set up for play value. Games consoles are focused on competition, either on your own against the machine or with someone else, they are far more inclusive in today's society than trains are. There are also considrably less restrictions on space and time. The trains can be intrusive on family life, especially if the parents may not be so enthusiastic, games consoles are not, kids lock themselves away in their bedrooms and are out of view.

 

There are also other interests that have appeared over the last 20-30 years that give kids much more choices for recreation and they are choosing them over trains.

 

Sorry if this all seems a bit negative but this is how I see it.

 

Regards,

 

Neil

 

'Is our hobby doomed'? They were asking the very same question here in the UK at least 20 years ago. It did seem debateable, but look at us now! We've never had it so good.

Dave Upton (UK) 

Dave,

 

If we are talking about 'O' gauge in the UK then yes, there has been a resurgence in new items, like those from ACE, but in reality what age groups are purchasing them?  I would be surprised to find any teenagers or even just a few adults in their twenties to have the spending power to make these purchases. 

 

If it is the older generation that has the money to purchase these items then there will be a cut off point when sales decline, but I don't see it possibly for some time to come.

 

In the US I think they are at that point already and the larger scales will find less popularity.

 

Regards,

 

Neil

 

I guess it all depends on how you interpret the original question. As I said, here in the UK we've had cause to ask ourselves the same question years ago, but today we've never had it so good. I can say this from the standpoint of someone who delights in the resurgence of what we call coarse scale O gauge - products made very much in the style and spirit of what has gone before. The originals have become hard to find and devilishly expensive long ago which is what spawned the resurgence I refer to. The new products are in the main avidly snapped up for one reason or another, so there are buyers out there even if they are often of senior years. Hold a public train running day however and watch the visitors - they are certainly not all pensioners and some of the widest eyes are those of the very young, so I don't fear the future myself.

 

Dave

 

 

 

Dave,

 

The original post referred to a tinplate video and I believe the current generation of kids.

So we are focussing on the larger gauges.

 

As you are more aware of the UK 'O' gauge tinplate market than I am, do you know of any young teenagers or adults in their 20's that are purchasing ACE trains or the like with a view to being in it for the long haul?

 

I know of one young adult over here that is a Lionel collector/operator, but all the items he owns have been purchased by his father who is an 'O' and Standard gauge collector. Now he has graduated and as soon as he finds a job then he will have the spending power to continue himself.

 

It would be interesting to see the age profile of those people purchasing ACE trains here to get an understanding of the possible future and where it lies.

 

I belong to the UK Lionel Collectors Club which originally had a membership of over 100 when formed in 1981. I believe the membership has dwindled to about 80 now. It has picked up a what I call mature people over this time but we have also lost about 20% through lapses for whatever reason and people passing away? If you look at the age profile of the members at Ilkley this year the majority are the wrong end of the scale! 

 

We have had two new members join a few years ago that you could say are younger than most of us but at this rate the membership may just survive into double figures in say 10-15 years from now.

 

Neil