For as passionate as some are about 2 rail track, it doesn't line up with the reality. The Lionel name for most means toy 3-rail trains, for which Lionel has sold millions of over the decades. With the advent of TMCC in 1995, Lionel started offering the scale 3-rail trains, that many clamor over. But how "many" is many? Lionel has said they have several thousand serious modeler customers and several million starter set customers, and everyone in between.
When Lionel completed the bargain priced K-Line KCC SD70MAC, Jerry Calabrese said they made just over 3,000, which was "an extremely large production run for a scale locomotive." I doubt those numbers have changed. Meanwhile Richard Kughn said the NYC Flyer starter set outsold every other starter set combined, meaning outside of track, it was the best selling item in the Lionel catalog. The traditional Polar Express, according to Lionel, is the biggest selling single train set in their entire history. NO small feature when one considers the popularity of Lionel during the 1950's.
MTH has tried and offered some locomotives for 2-rail and they didn't sell enough to warrant further attempts. If there was REALLY a market for 2-rail O gauge, it would have probably happened by now.
In a recent track survey I saw, tubular O and FasTrack had over 71% of the market , with every other track type falling into the remaining 29%. Lionel especially is most likely not going to abandon such a large well-established market. Even with Lionel's scale products, many are engineered to negotiate a 36" diameter curve, because they know full-well, they would lose necessary sales otherwise.
The biggest challenge facing the future of the hobby is not 2 rails versus 3 rails, but that nearly half the nation's kids are being raised in a single parent home. While not written in stone, this has been a hobby for fathers and their sons. Joshua Cohen certainly took advantage of that in both advertising and product.
Speaking from my own observations, I just don't see many single mothers, who are time constrained (and often financially too), building train layouts with their sons. Unfortunately they'll buy a video game because it's self-contained, no parental involvement necessary and no power tools required. No basement needed. No plywood and 2x4's, etc.
It's not at all that kids don't like trains anymore. But someone has to foster the interest and take the time (and MONEY) to engage and build the layout. Which might explain Lionel's new Mega Tracks toy... it engages kids with their creativity and with a minimum of parental time involved.
BUT who knows? Lionel tried command control decades ago and that failed. And Lionel made attempts at scale products in the past and those didn't do well. Times have changed, and will continue to do so.
That's why I enjoy the hobby today. And on my layout, 027 tubular track is STILL the track of the future. And who knows, maybe someone else will pick up production of 027 track... that's how K-Line got their start in the train business.