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prrhorseshoecurve posted:

So brionel, what you are saying is mth has yet to fully recoup their tooling investments from as far back as 1993 when in their O gauge product lines the models have been made at least twice to three times over?  Now what about your theory applied to mth's ho line? Are there not decades and decades of ho product since the sixties? Are their not multiple players as well as mom & pop start ups in ho market-a lot moreso than O scale?  Are not mth's ho products the same ones already made by other mfg's? What about the limited standard guage market as well? My point as well as others on this forum is the market stagnation has been created by the manufactuters lack of investment in at least ONE new model- esp in the lovomotive sector - for 1/2 a decade now and is continuing! If the market is that saturated, then why is Lionel taking a gamble on scale 89' auto racks and 86' auto parts boxcars and passenger car sets? Are there that many modelers that can support such monstrosity's on our layouts? Why did k-line do the same when they were around? On this forum alone, how many of us have been pushing for the Gp40-2 phase 2 or a ge b23-36 dash 7 or an ALCo C-636 or a C430? you don't think a mfgs tooling investment in these models could not sell out several runs? But another run of a Hudson, K4 Pacific, mountain or a gp38 is OK?

 

 

 

 

You hit the nail on the head.

How many people can afford and run $2000 engines, 89' foot freight cars. Sales may be slow but t is the mfgs. own fault. There are many engines that have never been built both steam and diesels. 

If I see another NYC Hudson , Challenger, big boy or GP38, I'm going to puke.

Come on MTH and Lionel, start thinking outside the box. Repaints of cars and locos from the same tooling year after year get old. It's not that you can't use the older tooling but please give them a rest every now and then. Throw in some new tooling and watch your sales grow. 

from a standard gauge view,yes one more 400e  ,give me a break,,,however ,in this last catalog,new tooling for 200 series cars,,,are wonderful the 1st in decades,, I don't think I could stand,anymore terracotta and anything,i just bought the bay window caboose,,,,its outstanding,,,,,i can see why this happened as some have said rehash,rehash,,,,,we will all live another day,and that might bring something new ,terry ,

I would hazard a wild guess that Menard's volume of sales is a few hundred thousand or a million dollars a year.  1-2% at most of Lionel's sales and not strikingly more than that of MTH's.  Just a guess.  Hardly a major dent in anyone's market.  They have no presence where a large portion of 3 rail train sales are, namely the Northeast and Midatlantic states.  Not to mention the South and West.  Sometimes perhaps we give ourselves here too much credit as being representative of the market as a whole.

 

Secondly, while I like what Menard's is doing and their rolling stock, track and buildings represent good value, it's not sensible to compare their costs of production with Lionel's and MTH's.  The latter are full line suppliers maintaining service and dealer networks.  They also have development costs for new tooling, particularly Lionel, the cost of which is painfully expensive.  Menard's is almost certainly keeping their development costs to a minimum, perhaps by using existing paint masks, as well as almost certainly using existing tooling that someone else owns,  or which they bought at fully amortized prices,  if at all. That's how they keep their prices so low.  It isn't magic.  Not a crime, but not something they could extend to producing locomotives, or command control, etc.

Last edited by Landsteiner
Landsteiner posted:

...  They have no presence where a large portion of 3 rail train sales are, namely the Northeast and Midatlantic states.  Not to mention the South and West.  ...

Actually, there's this new technology you may have heard of called the Internet.  Many of us are familiar with it, 'cause we all use it right here on the forum.    Bottom line...  it pretty much "levels the geographic playing field" a bit.  Just ask most successful LHS's and large dealers nowadays what percent of their business comes from online purchases vs. local in-store purchases.

As for comparing different companies and their various expense structures... that's all well and good.  But Company L's expense structure that supports a full product line is THEIR challenge to overcome for an enthusiast who's in the market for value-priced, traditional-sized rolling stock that's pretty impressive in its own right.  Companies (in all industries) don't win points by telling their potential customers, "Look at us... we have all these terrible expenses that we must overcome in order to stay in business.  That's why our prices are so exorbitant!!!"    They win points by making their customers "feel good" about parting with their hard-earned dollars when consumers purchase their products.... whether the price tag is large or small.

As I added in the P.S. of my earlier post, the Menards "value proposition" just keeps getting better and better.  Even with already-great prices, they're now offering a free Military truck with select purchases (for a limited time), -- which is yet another way to help the customer feel  better than they were already feeling  when paying the REGULAR price of the item(s) they wanted to purchase.   Works for me.

David

Last edited by Rocky Mountaineer
breezinup posted:
Rocky Mountaineer posted:
Landsteiner posted:

...  They have no presence where a large portion of 3 rail train sales are, namely the Northeast and Midatlantic states.  Not to mention the South and West.  ...

Actually, there's this new technology you may have heard of called the Internet.  Many of us are familiar with it, 'cause we all use it right here on the forum.    Bottom line...  it pretty much "levels the geographic playing field" a bit. 

Well, it may level it a bit. But many of the people who know about Menards only know of it because of the Forum. Before that, for example, I'd never heard of it. It's nowhere around this part of the world. And none of the internet train retailers carry it, so no one is finding out about Menards through any of them. Also, I'm quite sure the majority of those people who have heard of Menards think of hardware, etc. and have no clue they carry any O gauge train items (but then, most people using Menards don't care anything about trains). Some Forumites get Forum-centric, thinking that if it's on the Forum, everyone knows about it. Of course, that's not true by a long shot.

And people who don't know about Menards aren't going to use the internet to find it. You don't know what you don't know, as they say. Even if they know about it, deciding to order a train item from a hardware store 600 miles away sight unseen is a whole different thing. I went to a local show here in January, and in a discussion among a group of folks I was with, the topic of Menards came up. Most of the participants had blank stares. They'd never heard of it.

Menards appears to be having success in marketing its train products at this point. That's good. Have their sales been so enormous that it's become a significant cause for MTH product cancellations? I don't think so. There are other more significant factors at play. Also, don't forget that Weaver has gone out of business. Whatever competition Weaver offered to MTH (no doubt far more than Menards), that competition in the marketplace is no longer there. These MTH product cancellations occurred despite Weaver having left the market. 

Will Menards be a significant force someday? Who knows, but unless the major internet train sellers pick up the line, there will probably be marketing limitations that could keep it from being a major player, and it will remain a niche producer of down-market rolling stock.

Just my opinion.

 

Last edited by breezinup
breezinup posted:

Well, it may level it a bit. But many of the people who know about Menards only know of it because of the Forum. Before that, for example, I'd never heard of it. It's nowhere around this part of the world. And I'm quite sure the majority of those people who have heard of Menards think of hardware, etc. and have no clue they carry any O gauge train items . . .

You're right on the mark.  A few years ago we went to visit our son and his family, who were then living in Minnesota. He took me to Menards and I was astounded.  It is truly home center Heaven.  (I brought home a 2-year supply of furnace filters which were on sale. )

Later, on the Forum, Hot Water posted details of the paint he uses to paint his rails, which was apparently only sold at Menards.  I found out that Texas does not allow paint to be shipped in from out of state, but the paint manufacturer advised me of a substitute I could buy here.

Then, posts began to appear about Menards train products, and I made a point of checking at the Willmar Menards while there for a family reunion.  As it turned out, that Menards store did not have any train items that interested me, but it's now a given that any time I am in their territory, I'll check in and see if Menards can sell me some train product.

I am indebted to those who raised the awareness of many of us by posting on this Forum.

 

"Actually, there's this new technology you may have heard of called the Internet."

Yes, you're right.  I'd forgotten that Menard's is the Amazon of the toy train world .  How silly of me.

 

And the remarkably robust market for toy trains that Menard's now dominates galaxy-wide has caused Lionel and MTH to cancel more SKUs than ever in the history of the hobby.  If they, as expected by some here, introduce their new Big Boy for $450, the game will be over for Lionel and MTH.

Last edited by Landsteiner
 

If I see another NYC Hudson , Challenger, big boy or GP38, I'm going to puke.

Come on MTH and Lionel, start thinking outside the box. Repaints of cars and locos from the same tooling year after year get old. It's not that you can't use the older tooling but please give them a rest every now and then. Throw in some new tooling and watch your sales grow. 

Just to point this out...

Lionel has done a large number of new toolings in the past 2 years that are not just repaints. Let's count them:

F40PH, SD60E, SD40 series, the 21" passenger cars, the riveted body on the VL GG1, Reading T1, logging disconnects, N5B and Northeast style cabeese, I know I'm missing some.

Seems to me that's a very respectable number of new products that dwarfs all other 3 rail manufacturers combined. I would hate to see their tooling bill. But it certainly negates your comments. My 2 cents..

My take on all this is maybe we have all reached the saturation point in freight cars.  How many can we put on a train, most of us not that many.  Maybe its just that we have become more picky of what cars we want, I see people on here making there own cars and people selling large amounts of cars cheap, For me if its not something different then I pass and I run 25-30 car freight trains and I still have lots of cars on the shelf.  So I can see the sales on some items not there, When they start to cancel large parts of the catalog then I will start to worrie

Last edited by fl9turbo2

Cancellation is troublesome.  I have several products on order whose initial delivery date was last December but whose delivery date is now September.  Bummer. 

I agree with the comments above that MTH has already offered enough "plain" freight cars.  However, I would love to see them create more operating freight cars.  I would particularly like to see them make some innovative ones, such as an operating tinplate cattle car or an operating Standard Gauge RPO car.   Or how about something truly unique cars such as an operating national or state "fish car", like Wisconsin's famous Badger, which transported fish fry in milk cans around the state from the state's fish hatcheries for offloading into waiting wagons and/or trucks for further delivery into nearby lakes or streams.  Several states had these fish cars in operation for decades.

http://www.midcontinent.org/mi...nd-the-fish-car-era/

Wisconsin Fish Commission Badger #2

Bob

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Last edited by navy.seal

I agree if there were more unique cars then I can see people buying them. But as far as your every day cars I think we all have reach our fill, I have heard on her how menards could be the cause, I don't think so, but it makes you pause and think why are people talking about them.  I have many of there cars and feel they have a good product, but then you look at the price and say to your self nice car. So I fee IMO is that all the manufactures have to slow down and think about what they put out in there catalog. I don't think no one would shed a tear if they did not make some cars for a wile, maybe just maybe if the stop for a few catalogs when they do come back people would be excited over them

navy.seal posted:

Cancellation is troublesome.  I have several products on order whose initial delivery date was last December but whose delivery date is now September.  Bummer. 

...

Bob, those November/December 2015 delivery dates for products featured in the Tinplate Catalog were always "suspect".  The catalog came out so late... for those delivery dates to have been accurate, it would have meant overseas factories were manufacturing the stuff before MTH dealer orders were due.  Not saying that's impossible, but I don't think that many toy train products are built that way these days.  The importers want the assurance of dealer pre-orders before committing items to production -- especially for Standard Gauge and higher-priced O-Gauge.   Heck, MTH just cancelled a bunch of RailKing O-Gauge products due to low pre-orders from dealers.  And those goodies aren't exactly considered high-end items either.

Hopefully, these new dates will be more realistic.

David

Menards with over $8 Billion in annual revenue is just going to get bigger and bigger each year.  With more than 280 home improvement stores located in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Wyoming. If Menards keeps offering train items just think where the hobby will be in 5 years? 10 years?

Regards,

Swafford

The problem that I have had is that many of the PREMIER O Scale freight cars sell-out everywhere in 3 months. If the reservation for the Premier freight car is lost by some sort of system change or store closing at the train store or hobby shop, it will be hard to find some O Scale freight cars that fit with a specific time period and region.

 

Andrew

prrhorseshoecurve posted:

TrainingDave, I doubt it if Lionel is using all new tooling for the F40ph. I really think they are leasing tooling from Kanda San the former k-line F40 molds. I wouldn't be surprised if Lionel did the same with the Atlas O SD40. The SD60e is a new mold - or at least the cab has to be.

No Sir, the F40PH, SD40, and SD60e are all new tooling.

Swafford posted:

Menards with over $8 Billion in annual revenue is just going to get bigger and bigger each year. 

Although probably no more than other similar retailers. They're a major home improvement store, but they also have to compete with everyone from Home Depot (annual revenue of over $88 billion) to Ace Hardware (annual revenue over $13 billion with over 4,000 stores).

And if O gauge trains sales generally don't increase, there's little reason to suppose that Menard's train sales will increase dramatically over the long haul. Most of their sales are to existing operators, I'd think. New entries into the hobby have to buy their engines elsewhere (these days that's mostly mail order dealers who don't stock Menards products), and it's reasonable to assume they'd get their cars from the same source, if not from the starter sets they buy that already come with cars.

Last edited by breezinup
breezinup posted:
Swafford posted:

Menards with over $8 Billion in annual revenue is just going to get bigger and bigger each year. 

Although probably no more than other similar retailers. They're a major home improvement store, but they also have to compete with everyone from Home Depot (annual revenue of over $88 billion) to Ace Hardware (annual revenue over $13 billion with over 4,000 stores).

And if O gauge trains sales generally don't increase, there's little reason to suppose that Menard's train sales will increase dramatically over the long haul. Most of their sales are to existing operators, I'd think. New entries into the hobby have to buy their engines elsewhere (these days that's mostly mail order dealers who don't stock Menards products), and it's reasonable to assume they'd get their cars from the same source, if not from the starter sets they buy that already come with cars.

Good Day,

Similar retailers you mentioned do not sell trains in volume like Menards so I could care less about their growth!  As for growth, By the numbers, as Menards builds more stores there will be more growth in train sales.

Regards,

Swafford  

Swafford posted:

Similar retailers you mentioned do not sell trains in volume like Menards so I could care less about their growth!  As for growth, By the numbers, as Menards builds more stores there will be more growth in train sales.

 

Well, clearly the growth of similar retailers and building supply sales trends they experience are major indicators of what might be expected for Menards. Also, there's not necessarily a correlation between Menards building more brick and mortar stores and significantly increasing train sales resulting. Brick and mortar train stores across the country have been disappearing at an alarming rate, as we all know. 

In today's world brick and mortar stores are becoming a thing of the past. I rarely go into a store anymore be it for clothing, cars, house or my trains. I can find anything online and far more choices than any store can stock. 

The local mall is half empty and the owners are struggling to keep it alive. I'm not sure that will happen. 

It's a new world in retail now a days and even at my age of 70 I love the Internet and the new way in shopping.

Realistically, if Menards is going to have an impact on the hobby of any significance (which I doubt is their intention), they'd need to build a team of engineers/product designers who know the product and the Asian manufacturers, just to get going.  Locomotives would be the rate limiting step, and I'd predict they will not have a half dozen different types of locomotives in their catalog five years from now. 

 

The reason the hobby has not grown in the last 15 years is not that it is too expensive.  It has always been too expensive for most people.  It's because people aren't all that interested, with some exceptions.  The same factors that have limited the hobby since the 1950s still are present: space for layouts, many tantalizing and more appealing to most people alternate pursuits, the absence of visually appealing and charismatic daily exposure to railroads, etc. 

 

Menards offering value based O27 type products isn't going to change that all that much.  Menards also sells Lionel sets, and the owner loves Lionel.  Not exactly a recipe for competing with them at present.

The reason MTH sales may be down is the same reasons all sales in three rail are down from the peak volumes of the 1990s.  Lack of interest on the part of the public.  Saturation of the market.  Aging of the market.  And so on.  This isn't something fixable by Menards (or MTH or Lionel) through any simple strategy.  What Menards can do is increase the exposure of the public to Lionel and "Lionel type" trains, which will help everyone, including MTH.  MTH would the first to tell you that without Lionel's brand leading the market all these decades, the entire three rail industry would be pretty much dead in the water, so to speak.

 

What concerns me is the numerous comments about the lack of new tooling and that we "all" have reached our fill.  While I understand that a lack of fresh offerings is a bummer for those with mature collections, for those of us just starting in O scale what is old tooling to some  is  new tooling to us. IMO, I'd like to see continuous runs of the most popular locomotives and cars so folks new to O have access to those common models.  Its harder to entice new folks to the world of O if the manufacturers concentrate on oddball eq. pment or roadnames.  New people will keep the hobby fresh and new people are attracted by reasonably priced popular models and roadnames.

Price - IMO that is another problem with our hobby.  Agree the nostalgia and brand recognition for Lionel is great, but there is no L stuff in my collection.  I simply do not have the discretionary budget to spend $1200 - $2000 for a single locomotive.  Heck, I'd stay in HO before I'd do that. Don't get me wrong, i think its great that those models are available for those who can afford them.  But thank goodness for the MTH RK line for both price and availability - it was a major factor for me when deciding to convert from HO.  And I hope MTH does reruns of old tooling with PS3 electronics because it will be new to me and others relatively new to O.  Better yet, i wish L would offer a line more affordable  (and a step up from LC plus).   Ill take a reasonably priced NYC Hudson please.

prrhorseshoe, I cannot make any definite conclusions other than what has been made public information. Lionel and MTH are privately held companies, but during the lawsuit between them, there was a lot of information that came out.

Before the lawsuit, MTH's annual sales were approaching Lionel's figures. According to Mike Wolf, MTH profits went from $9.6 million in 1997, $7.8 million in 1998, $6.2 million in 1999, less than $1 million in 2000 to a loss of $815,000 in 2001. Mike Wolf has said his tooling was engineered for lengthy production runs, which means more cost. This also explains why much of the former Premiere tooling was moved to the Railking line. It also illustrates savy business sense.

Before the Lionel versus K-Line legal action, K-Line was in debt $3.8 million to Sanda Kan and another $1.5 to Merrill Lynch for financing of their debt. So obviously their expenditures exceeded their profits. Which might explain why now product has to be paid for in full before it ships to the US.

The bottom line is new product development and tooling is expensive. Even the HO company owners have said the same thing, and that they have to be cautious bringing new product to market. But the HO market is much larger with far more sales. And it's more unified: It's always been scale oriented. There's no traditional or semi-scale in HO. Lionel has meant toy trains for most of its' history. The scale side of 3-rail is a relatively new thing, so the scale 3-rail product is not competing with decades of prior product. And if the HO companies are cautious and put a lot of consideration into new product development, how much more so with the much smaller 3-rail market.

Lionel has always been the 3-rail industry leader, and I believe they want to keep it that way. Which I think helps explain some of the new scale product. There's obviously some market for product like the 86 foot box cars. But I think the resources required to bring this new product to market helps explain why Lionel traditional cars are priced at $50-$85.. and the high prices for everything else in the catalog from older existing tooling. Lionel has even recently said as a way to control costs, they are designing some new tooling to be modular, so they can more easily adapt one product type into another.

Like any company, Lionel looks at the expenses for a given year versus anticipated revenue, and adjusts prices accordingly to what they feel the market will bear. This has been a point of contention lately with the debates and complaints about Lionel's list prices. Which is why I think Menards products have become so popular. Aside from the structures, their box cars, hoppers, tank cars and flat cars are pretty much like any other product available... save for the PRICE. This is the big attraction. That, and good customer service. Menards does not have an entire product line like MTH or Lionel. BUT, should Menards decide to expand, they have one advantage over Lionel and MTH: Their major source of income is not from trains.

Yet even with Lionel's push on the scale side, the traditionally sized Polar Express set was the best selling train set in the entire history of Lionel according to Jerry Calabrese. And according to Dick Kughn, the NYC Flyer starter set consistently outsold every other every other Lionel set combined. Which probably made it the best selling item in the entire catalog.

Going back to MTH, I don't know how their HO line is doing. But it stands to reason since the HO market is bigger, there is opportunity there. The newer HO trains are far more detailed and advanced than prior years product. Which is why you can go to a show and buy used HO rolling stock for a few dollars. If you see Lionel stuff that cheap, it's because it's broken or for parts only. Same thinking for MTH's European product line: It's a new market that appears to be doing well for MTH. And to be honest, I think Mike Wolf is really struggling to keep his company going. But Mike is proud of his company and he's always been determined.

The 3-rail hobby is changing, and we've seen plenty to back that up. New companies come with new ideas, but many don't make it. Retailers are getting fewer. Things in China are changing: Lionel is having some product made in Romania and also the US. The Weaver tooling they bought was already in the US... which explains why they took the Weaver RS11 tooling... it will be in the US. Tooling that is made in China, tends to stay in China.

And there are times where something looks like a mistake to us modelers, but isn't a mistake for the company. Many have critically commented here on Lionel's large scale trains. But according to Jerry Calabrese, those items are a $5-$6 million dollar yearly source of income for Lionel. Or Lionel's affiliation with NASCAR, which Jerry Calabrese also explained was a good thing because the connection gave them much more financial clout with their Chinese vendors.

And as far as these cancellations (Lionel just cancelled some traditional products too), the trend in manufacturing is to just fulfill orders, not exceed them. So even though Lionel and MTH traditional product lines may not be advertised as built to order, the companies closely monitor distributor order figures. BTO products are based upon actual consumer pre-orders, but the other products are based upon dealer/distributor orders. Which I think helps explain why normal yearly cataloged items like FasTrack or smoke fluid can temporarily become unavailable from distributors. Smaller production runs aren't as profitable as larger runs, but it is less advance outlay of financial resources. Borrowing money isn't cheap either.

I agree that the train companies have to be innovative and bring out new product because they are in business to please consumers. Though this has become a challenge as consumers (especially on the scale side) have become more discriminating and demanding. But there's a fine balancing act here because of the large sums of money it takes to produce new product. If the 3-rail train hobby was so easy and lucrative, then all the companies that have started up in the past 20 years would probably still be in business today. And if the retailing end was so easy, there would be more train dealers today, not fewer.

We consumers might not like product cancellations - especially if it was your favorite road name - but if it helps to keep the train makers solvent, then I would expect it to continue. The train companies may be in business to please consumers, but they don't stay in business by spending more than they make in profit.

 

 

 

This is a screen shot of the first post, on this thread. Why - Black on Black?

MTH Black on black post

After a color correction.

2016 Volume 1 RailKing O Gauge Rolling Stock Cancellations

April 26, 2016 - Diminished interest in some select RailKing freight cars from the 2016 Volume 1 catalog have caused us to cancel production on these items. For your convenience, we've listed the items below.

30-72164 Conrail Gondola w/ Cover
30-72165 Western Maryland Gondola w/ Cover
30-72166 Northern Pacific Gondola w/ Cover
30-72167 Railgon Gondola w/ Cover

30-72168 Virginian Gondola w/ Junk Load
30-72169 Reading Gondola w/ Junk Load
30-72170 Wabash Gondola w/ Junk Load
30-72171 Nickel Plate Road Gondola w/ Junk Load

30-74838 Norfolk Southern 50' 2-Door Plugged Boxcar
30-74839 Alaska 50' 2-Door Plugged Boxcar
30-74840 Safety Train 50' 2-Door Plugged Boxcar
30-74841 Florida East Coast 50' 2-Door Plugged Boxcar

30-75538 GACX (Wonder Bread) Airslide Hopper
30-75539 GACX (Brach's Candy) Airslide Hopper
30-75540 Norfolk & Western Airslide Hopper
30-75541 GATX Airslide Hopper

30-75542 BNSF 4-Bay Cylindrical Hopper
30-75543 Union Pacific 4-Bay Cylindrical Hopper
30-75544 Alberta 4-Bay Cylindrical Hopper
30-75545 Chessie 4-Bay Cylindrical Hopper

30-76635 BNSF Flat w/Airplane
30-76636 CSX Flat w/Airplane
30-76637 Norfolk Southern Flat w/Airplane
30-76638 Pennsylvania Flat w/Airplane

30-79502 Burlington Northern Log Car w/ Logs
30-79503 Milwaukee Road Log Car w/ Logs

30-79504 Norfolk Southern Dump Car (no load)
30-79505 Ohio Central Dump Car (no load)

30-79506 Chicago North Western Slag Car
30-79507 Boston & Maine Slag Car
30-79508 Chessie Slag Car
30-79509 Union Pacific Slag Car

Gary

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brianel_k-lineguy posted:

...  BTO products are based upon actual consumer pre-orders, but the other products are based upon dealer/distributor orders.   ... 

Not so sure about this statement.  More likely, Lionel simply takes dealer orders across the board -- just that BTO has become more of a marketing label/gimmick that Lionel slaps on what they want us to believe are limited-run, high-end products.  And now Lionel is giving more dealers the ability to openly compete for consumer pre-orders on these BTO-labeled products -- thus lessening the need for dealers to have HUGE warehouse inventory storage "on spec", providing dealers ship product to consumers the day they literally receive it from Lionel.  MTH and Atlas-O have both been producing product very close to dealer orders for years now... They just didn't make a big fanfare about BTO like Lionel did.  

Sunset/3rdRail/GGD has been building tightly to direct-consumer orders for years, and they're more open with their production numbers.  Hence their strong recommendation that enthusiasts "reserve" product to ensure delivery.  Low or no reservations = products don't get made.  Pretty simple.

True... Perennial products from Lionel and MTH like track and power accessories are produced regularly as needed to keep supplies readily available (generally speaking), but even those products are occasionally prone to availability issues.

Clearly the overseas manufacturing landscape has changed, and it's not the panacea folks were led to believe.  But when we cut through all the smoke and mirrors, you'd be surprised how much has NOT changed over the years from the consumers' perspective.  Be it 2016, 2006 or 1996...  distributors and dealers are still offering endless "sales" that give patient enthusiasts the opportunity to purchase items for considerably less than at catalog pre-order time.  

Of course, the flip side to that is we're always hoping enough dealers continue to order sufficient product so the darn things actually get manufactured.  Especially since importers have successfully side-stepped the art of inventory management and placed that squarely on the shoulders of dealers -- which is the price dealers are paying for having increased opportunity to compete for pre-order business today. 

Nope... There never has been a free lunch in life... and there likely never will be.  Everything comes at a cost.

David 

Last edited by Rocky Mountaineer
falconservice posted:

What are the popular road names?

It would be best to make all the paint schemes and railroad names that fit the cars, then go into repeats and new concept schemes.

Andrew

Popular road names? Apparently, you haven't noticed: Pennsylvania RR, Pennsylvania RR, Pennsylvania RR and Pennsylvania RR. Just this past year Lionel produced 4 or 5 cabooses in different PRR flavors and colors. They just can't get enough. It is great for all the stereotypical  65+, York-centric, old-timers who actually remember the PRR. For the rest of us, who cares. Let's try something else for a change. And Scott R wants more of the common stuff? Seems like were are flooded with it already.

This has turned into an interesting discussion.

My thoughts are:

Regarding MTH and tooling costs, investment in tooling is an investment in the future for the company.  It has to be done, although only the company can figure out what those investments should be.

Regarding Menards, my guess is that they are selling trains in order to get people into the front door of their stores.  Do they make any money on train items?  Only Menards knows, and they also likely have some idea of what it means in terms of sales of OTHER items they sell in the store.  What will Menards sell that is train related, five years from now? Again, who knows, maybe they will still sell train stuff, change gauges, or sell something completely different (no relation to trains).  As trains are not part of their core business, they are not chained into selling these types of items.

I do give the folks at Menards credit, for a relatively small player in this niche market, they have come up with some interesting items.  As an example, the nose art WWII boxcars are an ingenious item, and even through I no longer have any traditional sized trains, I am constantly fighting off the urge to buy a set!  Personally, I'm probably looking at my first purchase from Menards, a 4 pack of the scale Pennsy flatcars, for a project that I am working on. 

Jim

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