My thoughts on train manufacturers

I don't see any other new train importers coming into the marketplace. There is enough product out there and plenty of options.  I actually wouldn't be surprised if a few companies get out of the game eventually. There have already been a few big train companies that went out of business in the not so distant past. The two most recent that I can think of are Weaver and K-line. Wouldn't be surprised if the Williams line goes away later. RMT also. Menard's has some decent entry level rolling stock and some nice structures, but I really don't see them getting up there with the big boys like Lionel, MTH and Atlas.

Yeah, IMO a better bet would be in twenty years, it will be just Lionel again.

You are forgetting K-Line. MTH was making the same basic Train Master that Lionel made for years until K-line came out with a much more detail model. Same with K-lines F-3/7. More detail. How about people in passenger cars. K-line again. Scale steam engines were cheaper than MTH and Lionel and better detailed. All this was good for it advanced the skill of model train making. Don

Well I am gonna give menards a go.Because I think if they stick with rolling stock.And the price they offer and deals.They will carve out a nice spot for them selfs.Leave the locomotives to lionel and mth.

Each manufacturer brings something different to the hobby as well as cater to certain expectations. Weaver ceased because of retirement; K-Line woul probably still be in business were it not for stupid business decisions. I don’t think Williams by Bachmann will disappear.  Look back through OGR over the years and you can see which companies and hobby shops have stood the test of time. 

Menards is a bang for the buck, much like some K-line, Williams, RMT, or MPC-Lionel. 

 In the years preceding Menard's production; it was also claimed here there was no room for another co. and no real market but high-end....I again say there is room for another, and room for some low end conventionals too. That sure doesn't exclude Menards anymore today than 2014.  

I think Bachmann/Williams will always keep 'O" foot in the door now that it's there. They have good rep. beyond merger; worth it in branding alone to pop out something every now and then.

Just opinion, but I do think Bachmann will phase out the Williams line and drop O gauge completely. The company has already discontinued a large chunk of the Williams line (the Train Master, Sharknose, etc.) and has not replaced them with a matching batch of new items. That, combined with the rising price structure, will shrink Williams by Bachmann sales to the point that Kader would no longer support the line.

New full-line manufacturers? Very unlikely. We’ll know in the next 10 years whether our end of the hobby can sustain itself. My sense of it all? As full-line makers fade or their owners retire the firms, smaller manufacturers will get involved making replacement or alternate shells through 3-D printing for existing mechanisms or produce limited runs from abandoned tooling. The hobby will continue for a much smaller dedicated few.

I agree with your assessment. Have you seen the new Lionel catalog and the prices? They are completely out of their minds if they think the Lionel community can afford those prices.

" Have you seen the new Lionel catalog and the prices? "  Depends on the line.  Lionel has some new standard O freight cars that are priced at $35 or so at many on-line retailers.  That's less expensive than any other vendor.  Sets are routinely in the $200-400 range.  In the new MTH catalog sets are approaching $500.  So it clearly isn't a problem in that respect for those of us who buy sets or LionChief/LionChief + products.

Fact is that the model train market is currently flooded with trains . Those that own the trains are largely long time enthusiasts in a changing demographic. Moving forward the model train companies have to be very creative and cautious introducing new products. Some collectors/operators have most of what they have wanted or needed so new products need to be carefully thought out.  My thought is  that Menard's market niche is the most secure one in O gauge. Atlas and Williams may be the most vulnerable BUT they have HO product to save the day.  The low price end of things in scenery, structures and operating accessories may be where the market growth potential is now. Come out with something that anyone can afford and they will buy it sometimes irrespective of whether they need it or not.  Premium (high end) items may now be an ever shrinking portion of the market that MTH and Lionel will compete for. In the next few years would we rule out a merger or one company buying out the other?  On a positive note, a model train enthusiast now has an almost unending variety of things to buy at affordable prices. I don't think that its even been that good.

Dennis LaGrua posted:

 I believe that Menard's market niche is the most secure one in O gauge. 

Agreed, because if selling a few hundred toy train items a year doesn't pan out . They have a huge home improvement warehouse chain to offset the loss.

Jerry Rubin posted:

I agree with your assessment. Have you seen the new Lionel catalog and the prices? They are completely out of their minds if they think the Lionel community can afford those prices.

 

Except that, statistically, it doesn't bear out. A new Lionel train set in 1939 was a much higher percentage of the average US weekly household income in 1939 than a new Lionel starter set is compared to today's average weekly household income. In 1938, a new Hudson sold for $75.00 when the average annual salary was less than $1,500.00 per year.

So, in actuality, although today's train prices might seem high, they are a much better buy and affordable than in the "golden years".

Landsteiner posted:

" Have you seen the new Lionel catalog and the prices? "  Depends on the line.  Lionel has some new standard O freight cars that are priced at $35 or so at many on-line retailers.  That's less expensive than any other vendor.  Sets are routinely in the $200-400 range.  In the new MTH catalog sets are approaching $500.  So it clearly isn't a problem in that respect for those of us who buy sets or LionChief/LionChief + products.

I agree.   At present, I own all Lionchief/plus  loco's and am very happy with them.   They represent the best value to me.   I do not have the money to buy the more expensive product lines but even if I did,  I would not purchase them.

Tinplate Art posted:

RickO: "Large home improvement warehouse chain"? I must be out of the proverbial "loop"!

You must be.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menards

GOT IT!  THANKS!  😁

https://ogrforum.com/...7#138541431171742727

This kind of comment seems to surface everytime a catalog appears..  Fewer of the comments now than several years ago.  Some people have paid attention.

Best to do some homework on costs of our toys ... now and "then" ... before posting.

If bachmann discounted the williams line.Maybe they would sell it to menards.Some of williams trains locomotives are brutes.I am talking about their scale hudson.What a chunk of metal/machine.I know some will say to this idea.No way no how.Just remember in the 1970 and 1980s lionel pretty much had the o gauge market to it self.That is until the 1990s when a little known company.Came out of no where and rocked the world of o gauge trains.So I say my friends never ever say never!

I think it’s been covered above. Command control seems to be moving towards Lionel being the last company standing. I love MTh, especially because the simplest of starter locos can pull ANYTHING. Also the detail in their affordable cars CRUSHES Lionel. Detailed interiors, better external detail, etc. The other remaining manufacturers - Atlas, WBB, RMT, Menards and the Brass folks all offer something, but no one has the pockets to compete with Lionel on Command Control. I am a huge MTH DCS fan, But it’s limited, compared to what Lionel is doing. I really hope MTH steps up its game. Ideally a DCC like (NOT DCC, just the idea of a standard) merging of the control technologies would help them all. I don’t see it happening 

Why not DCC? Anyway, I believe they need the additional income from control system and accessory sales given the overall lower volume than attainable in say HO. It is also a market differentiator.

Brendan

What happens when Mike of MTH wants to retire? That’s my big question. Does the company keep going under new leadership? Do they sell to Lionel? Who knows at this point.

Jim R. I think your right. Williams did well when Post War Lionel had a large market. They made many of the same items for a lot less money than you would spend on a used original Lionel item. They ran well and in many cases had better paint jobs. That post war Lionel market has almost vanished. True Williams has come out with a few new things but the 44 ton switcher is a telling item. One run of a few hundred and that's it. They have never done that before. Wonder if the 70 ton switcher will do the same. The last Williams I bought was their very nice E-7 that will be detailed and get new electronics. That engine was also dropped from the line. Don

On the suggestion of MTH going over to DCC control; that is a DC standard used in HO scale trains. DCS is very similar but uses that type of control for AC operated trains. Moving forward its hard to visualize any new standard of operation. We start with conventional, then have DCS, Lionchief, TMCC, Legacy and now Bluetooth and Smart Phone control.   Don't believe that there is much more room in today's market for new types of remote control operation. 

It may just be me, but I found this topic to be somewhat depressing and filled with speculation. I am going to continue to enjoy collecting and running my trains, which consist of Lionel and MTH engines; Lionel, MTH, Weaver and Atlas freight cars; and Lionel and MTH passenger cars. I will also continue to selectively buy some new trains, based upon my budget. None of us knows what the future will be and we will all deal with it when it arrives.

Pat  

"On the suggestion of MTH going over to DCC control; that is a DC standard used in HO scale trains. DCS is very similar but uses that type of control for AC operated trains. Moving forward its hard to visualize any new standard of operation. We start with conventional, then have DCS, Lionchief, TMCC, Legacy and now Bluetooth and Smart Phone control. "

MTH Proto 3 is DCC compatible.  As is Legacy since December 2012.  While they may not be full featured with a million CV's to play with, they are functional.

Anyone expecting to sell trains to the HO world has to have DCC compatibility in some form.

Rusty

Two companies that deal with electric trains, Kader Industries and Menards have the financial resources and very deep pockets to increase their market share if they wanted to. Menards if they so desired, could buy both Lionel and MTH and the transactions most likely would not even cause much of a blip on their year end financial report.

Oh, boy ....first heard the phrase "too much product" from a dealer in a show decades ago.  There was then, and now, too many recycled same few "traditional" prototypes!  Molds are held hostage out of country?  Way past time to offer the variety that HO had when l came from it decades ago, with new molds here.  I could go back to HO, get on the net, and buy everything l want, that has never been offered in three rail! Ridiculous!!

https://ogrforum.com/...9#138682179717122499

The whole point of this discussion is to speculate. That is what the OP requested, "our thoughts". I don't see it as depressing, but rather a possible vision of the future based on trends that those of us that have been in this hobby for a while have noticed throughout the years. There are some facts that are behind the viewpoints mentioned. 1) There are fewer people getting into this hobby. 2) The amount of new product coming to market has reduced. 3) The number of manufacturers is declining. Just because we lose some companies isn't really a harbinger of doom for our hobby.

To my knowledge, Lionel is owned by a venture capital/private equity firm and MTH is a sole proprietorship.  Lionel has a 120 year old brand name worth a bit just as is.  The future of one is thus a bit clearer than the other for these reasons.  Neither company is likely to be bought by its employees, for a variety of reasons. Neither company is probably all that attractive as an investment for the long term.  So it will be business as usual until something gives, most likely for a few more years.

I don't see memtion of Sunset 3rd Rail in this discussion. I've been a fan since Mort Mann started the 3rd Rail Division and have purchased many of the models over the years.  Lately I'm limited to buying  used, since I'm retired and on a fixed income that makes spending $1500-2000+ not practical. I wonder how many more train affectionados are in the same situation. I see that lLonel is taking orders to build rather than speculating on production. That was the problem that killed ROW and almost Williams in the early 9()'s and later led to the down fall of K-Line. With Train manufacturing moving from the US to Japan after the war, and then to Korea, and now China, where is the next source of cost effective production?

I was out of the loop as well, so I just bought two Menard's boxcars (and got 2 free diecast 1:48 Scale 1948 Ford® Menards® Panel Trucks in the bargain!) to check them out.  $19.99 for the standard boxcar and $24.99 for a "weathered" boxcar seems reasonable on the surface.  With tax/processing/shipping, the final price was $63.41.  We'll see what we get!

I'm currently all-in on DCS, but I read an opinion above that the lastest Lionel Command Control stuff is better?