New-Old-Stock - Will it Ever Sell?

I have often wondered the same thing myself about the new old stuff. I got one of the Lionel SD60M's a few years ago, in particular the UP #6187. I would like to get the other road number they made that year but I don't want to pay $600 for an old engine with none of the new features. I keep looking but there is just so many other new options to choose from for that price.

I am always interested in new/old stock especially mth as you can use one of those cheap dcs controllers and run them wirelessly. Lionel not so much. Of course it always matters at what discount they will give you.  How old is it. Some capacitors dry up over time and don’t feel like changing them out after I just bought it.

I agree.  There are older cars or locos I would still buy, but not at retail - even 20 year old retail.  Call them up and make an offer

Brendan

Usually items on ebay are full retail and they can be from 2007 for example. Inquire for a better price and you do not get a reply. My experience. Walk on by.

@DMASSO posted:

Usually items on ebay are full retail and they can be from 2007 for example. Inquire for a better price and you do not get a reply. My experience. Walk on by.

I was referring to the mail order houses. eBay is not very negotiation friendly even the “make offer” ones

Brendan

I know Brendan. Some stores have the same mentality.

My thoughts are in the latest catalog are simply new paint schemes on already previously used moulds. Like the 2-10-10-2 SANTE Fe, The Veranda, SD70’s, ETC. So, this is why I really didn’t see an engine I needed. Now that I’m seeing some of the changes that many technicians are doing, like Bruk, Gunrunner John, Pat, The Harmon Shops, (Harmonyards), Pete Norton, Alex Malliae, Mike Reagan, and I’m sure there’s lots of others. So, take an older Steamer with TMCC, like K-Lines J1e NYC Hudson which had a forward weak can motor, sad chassis, sad smoking unit, no cruise control, pitiful little locomotive. The Harmon Shops are doing a total rebuild of my hudson and it’s going to be a Stump Puller. Go to the thread “Another Hudson gets the works! Tales from the Harmon Shops” and read from the beginning, a fantastic journey which is almost to the end. Amazing make over. Pat just fixed a Lionel 773, one with TMCC, exchanging a motor for a Pittman and newer electronics, making it a much better performer. So, if I find a good older locomotive, I’ll send it to Harmonyards. Some of the early TMCC Steamers/Diesels are well made, worthy of a great upgrade. Happy Railroading Everyone

Personally I'm done with the constant legacy debacles. I now focus on tmcc stuff from the early-mid 2000' s which I can usually find at prices 50% of the latest version.

Having said that. It's purely up to the dealer what they price it at and whether it sells.

There's a "somewhat" local dealer in my area that has a 10' high wall of heavily dust covered NOS Tmcc locos priced at msrp. There they sit, so dusty even if I was foolish with my money I still wouldn't buy.

You can go on their website and see these 15 year old trains listed higher than the legacy clones.....whatever.

I gave up shopping there.

The appeal of NOS may be to those who took leaves from the hobby for a while and are playing catch-up.  I was fascinated after a twenty year hiatus and willing to pay the asking prices for the privilege of acquiring what I missed.

What, me worry? 

I can't remember the last time I bought new stock Lionel.  The retail prices of today are just too high in my opinion.  I buy NOS Lionel all the time.  I'm a toy operator, so I'm satisfied with traditional stuff only.  Lately I've been buying a lot of the LRRC offerings and operating cars.  I appreciate the scale items, but I don't have the room for large diameter curves.  I'm happy operating Thomas the Tank Engine with Crayola cars, a TV car, missile launcher, and a balloon target car together.

I'm always checking out sales for NOS items.  I rarely buy anything without a box.  I've found a lot of excellent deals for NOS through ebay, OfferUp, and other on-line sites.

I wonder this as well. I seek these places out because I'm looking for something specific. Like maybe a Heinz or Vernors car or something. These are cars I'm not necessarily going to use on the layout but they have a sentimental value for me.

Beyond that, I have bought NOS discounted stuff from the 80s/90s so I can hone my painting/weather skills.

I've been doing O scale for almost 9 years now, and I'd say at least 90% of my stuff are trains that weren't bought at the time of them being manufactured (this includes Lionel Pre and Postwar). Pretty much all of my modern equipment is from the '90's to 2000's. One of the reasons I have mostly older stuff is because of how cheap I can get these things, usually from certain eBay sellers and from swap meets. Personally I don't like paying retail prices from NOS, unless there is no other option available. If a locomotive costed $400 dollars when it came out in the 2000's, and then the same one was re-released today, but with better features and/or a more detailed tooling, then I would either buy the newer locomotive at the price it is at now, or pay 25% or more below the original price for the NOS item. I know collectability and inflation are factors to consider, but in some situations, I consider the trains I want like buying a car. It doesn't always make sense to pay high prices for something that is considered outdated after a certain period of time, even if it was never used (and again, this depends on what the item is). I hope I am explaining myself properly.

Ok, you walk into a Hobby Shop and there is a full wall of NOS Postwar Lionel.  You are telling me you are not going to pay full 50's retail.  The answer is always the same.  If you want it, you pay it. 

Keith is correct.  Anything that has been on the shelf for any period of time has eaten up whatever profit potential there was.  That is why there are after Christmas sales and after, after Christmas sales.  Get whatever cash out of it that you can and move on.

Thereby hangs the tale.  Most small business people skipped that day in class so it will probably be there when they die.  Then some collector or operator will pick it up and start the process all over again.

I have been under enough train tables to know that we all love NIB.

Glad to see I'm not the only one wondering if many of these retailers are actually just collectors masquerading as retailers. That includes eBay retailers who I think are getting even worse.  I've seen some listings celebrate a couple birthdays.  I recently picked up some PS3 engines from a couple forum sponsors, and I see the same with PS1 on eBay for nearly the same price! Sure, no problem Mr. eBay, I'm "happy" to give you $300 for that RK NKP Berk with PS1 when I can get a brand new one with PS3 for $400 WITH WARRANTY.

I see Lionel 2-8-4's with tmcc in hobby shops and they are still asking $ 795 and up. Some of these engines are almost 20 years old, still collecting dust on the shelf. Lionel 4-8-2 tmcc Mountains with the same price older than the 2-8-4's. This hobby is pricing itself out of business and dying a slow death. For those of you who still don't see the writing on the wall, in the last ten years how many hobby shops and manufacturers from Z to G scale have closed. I was shocked with Weaver Models, but it started long before them.

@DL&W Pete posted:

I see Lionel 2-8-4's with tmcc in hobby shops and they are still asking $ 795 and up. Some of these engines are almost 20 years old, still collecting dust on the shelf. Lionel 4-8-2 tmcc Mountains with the same price older than the 2-8-4's. This hobby is pricing itself out of business and dying a slow death. For those of you who still don't see the writing on the wall, in the last ten years how many hobby shops and manufacturers from Z to G scale have closed. I was shocked with Weaver Models, but it started long before them.

And no parts in stock.

Perhaps there is a financial incentive to hold onto dusty inventory?

Even if they'll never sell it at full retail, I imagine they keep the retail value of the inventory on their books, and it contributes to the value of their company on paper at full retail price.

If they rely on some sort of credit facility to keep new inventory coming in, then maybe their creditworthiness is important to maintain.

I imagine a sudden loss of the company's book value after a 50% blowout sale might cause a lender to reduce or eliminate available credit?

Just wondering out loud.

@Jeff_the_Coaster_Guy posted:

Perhaps there is a financial incentive to hold onto dusty inventory?

Even if they'll never sell it at full retail, I imagine they keep the retail value of the inventory on their books, and it contributes to the value of their company on paper at full retail price.

If they rely on some sort of credit facility to keep new inventory coming in, then maybe their creditworthiness is important to maintain.

I imagine a sudden loss of the company's book value after a 50% blowout sale might cause a lender to reduce or eliminate available credit?

Just wondering out loud.

My thought is there is not enough profit made on train sales to justify buying on credit unless it is very short term. But I just fix them. No desire to get into retail.

@Jeff_the_Coaster_Guy posted:

Perhaps there is a financial incentive to hold onto dusty inventory?

Even if they'll never sell it at full retail, I imagine they keep the retail value of the inventory on their books, and it contributes to the value of their company on paper at full retail price.

If they rely on some sort of credit facility to keep new inventory coming in, then maybe their creditworthiness is important to maintain.

I imagine a sudden loss of the company's book value after a 50% blowout sale might cause a lender to reduce or eliminate available credit?

Just wondering out loud.

You might be onto something here, but I'd expect any lender to also look at inventory turns. They look to make sure that inventory turns into cash at some point. Grocery stores turn their inventory monthly (12-14 times per year). NOS doesn't exist in that retail segment.

Pete, I sure don’t see it as a dying hobby at all. The big dealers appear to be doing pretty good. Yes, many small shops have closed mostly because of retirement age  or no one willing to buy them out. Most small shops I’ve been to have very limited inventory, no website and no one trying to sell me anything. You are not going to stay in business trying to sell trains as we did in the post war days. Just my opinion.
Also, I’m sure the successful dealers know what they can and cannot do with old inventories.

@raising4daughters posted:

You might be onto something here, but I'd expect any lender to also look at inventory turns. They look to make sure that inventory turns into cash at some point. Grocery stores turn their inventory monthly (12-14 times per year). NOS doesn't exist in that retail segment.

I would be surprised if the small retailer and even spell 'credit facility' much less have one.

Let me offer an alternative viewpoint.  That NOS isn't simply stuff that was bought long ago that didn't sell.  It is stuff that a serious model railroader can wade through hoping to find a gem that he couldn't get in the past or didn't know was ever made.  It is stuff that someone new to the hobby can pick up and use right away, rather than having to wait 6 to 24 months for his preorders to come in.  If you are just starting out and it is new, are you likely to care that it was made 5 or 10 years ago.  Inventory, even if it is older inventory, is what makes him a train store and not just a guy who takes orders.  That isn't to say he shouldn't be willing to entertain discounts to move some of the older stuff out and replace it with newer stuff.

The Old M.T.H. locomotives with original ProtoSounds can be improved and even upgraded to run with Command Control.

Some Lionel freight cars have cheap or inaccurate paint schemes and can be stripped, then repainted.

Andrew

The dealer needs to find a cost effective way to advertise all across the USA and Canada in order to get the items moved.

Andrew

@raising4daughters posted:

You might be onto something here, but I'd expect any lender to also look at inventory turns. They look to make sure that inventory turns into cash at some point. Grocery stores turn their inventory monthly (12-14 times per year). NOS doesn't exist in that retail segment.

Because the market for 2 year old milk is severely depressed...

Rusty

Thread reminds me of an old train store near me (Lionel Buy and Sell) that had almost laughable stacks of dusty, old rolling stock.  I stopped going to this place years ago because the staff had that "get off my lawn" attitude. But on my visits I always noticed the big piles of old Lionel 70s/80s-era red and white boxes with a few inches of dust. Every time I went it was like nothing had moved. The red color faded to pink and then just faded out completely. Of course, they never lowered the prices or tried to entice you with specials.

I suppose there could be some "hidden gems" in the piles of ancient rolling stock but I never saw any.

@Bill N posted:

Let me offer an alternative viewpoint.  That NOS isn't simply stuff that was bought long ago that didn't sell.  It is stuff that a serious model railroader can wade through hoping to find a gem that he couldn't get in the past or didn't know was ever made.  It is stuff that someone new to the hobby can pick up and use right away, rather than having to wait 6 to 24 months for his preorders to come in.  If you are just starting out and it is new, are you likely to care that it was made 5 or 10 years ago.  Inventory, even if it is older inventory, is what makes him a train store and not just a guy who takes orders.  That isn't to say he shouldn't be willing to entertain discounts to move some of the older stuff out and replace it with newer stuff.

No doubt, inventory is a huge part of what makes a train store. With rolling stock, I think you're right....it doesn't really degrade over time much, if at all.  I have PW rolling stock running along side modern rolling stock, not much MPC.

If they put their inventories out on the web for others to see, I think they could turn a lot more inventory and ultimately do better. Locally, following the sad death of a LHS owner, one of the first thing his heirs did was start selling some of the massive stock on eBay while doing the store's close out.  Nothing inherently wrong with NOS, I agree, but holding it to sell at 1993 MSRP to walk-up traffic seems to me like hoping for a miracle.

NOS at original MSRP with no warranty = trolling for suckers?  Especially when it's an older version of something that's been remade recently with a better control system.  There are a few exceptions - an obscure road name or an item that was made in limited quantities and not remade.

But otherwise, I think it boils down to a not-financially-savvy mentality - "I paid $x for that item, so I must make my markup".  The time value of money be ****ed!  (I wonder if the concept of the time value of money is understood by many of these folks.)

I will buy NOS for an item that I missed the first time around and hasn't been remade, but those are few and far between, and I'll rarely pay anything close to original MSRP (and never for a PS-1 engine).

I posted my “find” this weekend - a NOS Z4000. I guessed the original shop owner paid $300 - it had a 1210 manufactured date sticker on the box. The new owners wanted $495! On one visit they even pulled up a price on EekBay to justify that. I left the shop moments afterward. I could not get the image of a new-mint Z4000 out of my head though. ( I had one on back-order, until this AM...)This weekend I reasoned calmly with one of the new owners I had not met before. We settled at $400. Yeah, it’s almost at the new (back ordered) Z4000 price, but I’m a big Z4 fan and bought what I could see and touch. Turns out, so far to be a great find. Have to also put forth that I think MTH products made in the height of their growth might be less problematic than the newest 2020 releases.

I have been circling back to some Lionel product made from the early 2000s up to 2015 range in light of the current state of what is being produced right now. I took that level of quality for granted it seems and thought it would be around always.

Jeff,

Just some friendly info.

The laws of Accounting (both GAAP and tax rules) require that all inventory purchased by a company must be listed in its books (including balance sheet) at cost, not what they think is retail price. Otherwise, financial statements would be worthless because they would be highly speculative.

This means that keeping inventory in stock, with full retail as the asking price, does not boost the value of a company.

Inventory on the books can be written "down" in value, if they become damaged or obsolete, but not up. 

I would gladly pay 10x MSRP on a NOS SG set.  I know it will do everything it is supposed to do.  If, after decades, it needs new wheels or a frame, I can understand the problem.  The parts are available and relatively inexpensive, and I can do almost all the repairs myself.

I refuse to pay 1/10 MSRP on anything Legacy or TMCC.  I know it will fail in whole or in part after a few hours of use if it is not already broken.  The parts are unavailable or overly expensive, and I am cannot do the repairs myself.

In between the extremes:  I will happily pay MSRP for MPC and early LTI.  It has much more in common with the SG than the TMCC/Legacy equipment.

YMMV, of course, but these judgments are based upon my actual experience, not just reading about others'.

@palallin posted:

I refuse to pay 1/10 MSRP on anything Legacy or TMCC.  I know it will fail in whole or in part after a few hours of use if it is not already broken.  The parts are unavailable or overly expensive, and I am cannot do the repairs myself.

25 years old. Still runs perfect under TMCC with 0 issues......

@Lou1985 posted:

25 years old. Still runs perfect under TMCC with 0 issues......

My first two TMCC locos are 20 years old, have been on my layout continuously, and have been run and run and run--and still run great. Same with my first PS1 engine, which is 22 years old.

@Bill N posted:

If you are just starting out and it is new, are you likely to care that it was made 5 or 10 years ago.  Inventory, even if it is older inventory, is what makes him a train store and not just a guy who takes orders.  That isn't to say he shouldn't be willing to entertain discounts to move some of the older stuff out and replace it with newer stuff.

I wasn't thinking about items that are 5 or 10 years old. I would actually consider that inventory depth.

I was thinking of shelves of dusty boxes--or long lists in magazine ads--of MPC, LTI, and 1990s and early 2000s Lionel LLC, and 1990s and early 2000s MTH. Even though there may be something in there that somebody will want, my question is, how often does that occur? And if the demand is, in fact, very low, what's the point of the prices they're still asking. Won't it take really, really low prices to move most of this stuff? And wouldn't whatever the dealers get be better than maintaining a model train "archive" that will outlive them?

@Bill N posted:

Let me offer an alternative viewpoint.

If you are just starting out and it is new, are you likely to care that it was made 5 or 10 years ago.

Well...

Were I just starting out, having embraced the "Model-Railroading-is-Fun" mantra, dazzled by all the glitz and glamour displayed in periodical pages and YouTube clips, even with encouragement from the spouse seeking her own relief from my acute 'CPR'...Couch Potato Retirement..., I'd be wary of NOS (locomotives, especially) in the 5+ year of dusty shelf age.

After all, what famous manufacturer has drawn the 5-year line in the sand for warranty/serviceability support??

I can't think of anything else that would dampen kill my nascent enthusiasm into this hobby more than finding out I bought 5+ year NOS item...at any price...that had inherent, unsupported, costly health issues...that the guy at the LHS could have advised me of at the time of sale!!

Which is in the same context we (LHS) would advise (grand)parents of very young children (say, 4-8 years old) against buying junior a 'starter' set in N or HO gauges...for space and price reasons , don't cha know!?  If you hoped that first train set would encourage a longer term interest to develop, NOTHING will dampen it faster than the predictable problems that will occur in that awkward mix of age and scale...difficulty in getting on the track, broken fragile parts (couplers), lack of inherent play value (interaction with other toys/loads), etc., etc..  And, we're not making the mid-last-century advertising assumption that mom, dad, the frisky puppy, et al, will be right there on the floor helping junior with his HO/N starter train set every day, every time.

Yep, starting out with new old items no longer supported by the manufacturer?...keeping enthusiasm for the hobby on a growth curve?......

.Better strategy?...sell new inventory at any price to be sure it doesn't linger on the shelf past, say, 4 years.....and order accordingly in the first place!  (I know, I know...easier said than done, sometimes.  I mean, who really knows for sure what will sell well or become the latest turkey?)

But, that's just MHO...nothing more, nothing less,

KD

DKD,

If I had to guess, the manufacturers are in fact selling new/old stock at deep discounts after 5 years, but they are selling them to retailers, who buy them up in bulk, with visions of making very large margins when they sell them.  And, these retailers think that they have bought "gold" that will go up in value every year.

Most people who own a small train shop suffer from constant "cash flow" problems. They want cash cash cash at high margins, so when you offer to buy one of those new products in 20 year old dusty boxes at less than sticker retail, they feel like they are being cheated or shorted.   After all, they were going to make a HUGE profit.

This goes on and on, until they go bankrupt.

. 

We are all a bit different in what we like to do in this Hobby. For many years I collected post war Lionel rarely running them except at Christmas. Recently I have become interested in operating both conventional and TMCC. I enjoy the premium items but not at current prices. With Patience and careful buying I now have the equipment to operate steam and diesel that I like.

Most were NOS or barely run Kline or Weaver with an occasional Lionel mint or LN in the box. I believe most were from collectors that never operated them. Of course the risk is that parts are rare. luckily I enjoy servicing and repairing including TMCC components. All of my recent purchases fired right up after inspection and lubrication. When I run them more and more they likely will have failures but so do brand new products.

Richard

NOS, or lightly used, has been my bread-and-butter for years. Don't know about the so-called "LHS" sales environment, as most of us have no such thing reasonably available to us. So, that's irrelevant to me.

Like new items, it depends on what it is - and was, and what I can make it. "PS1" essentially says "ERR conversion" on the box.  I like those good Korean products (Lionel, MTH and otherwise) from several to many years ago.

My electronics tastes are toward the simple and straightforward. Command Control for go/stop/direction/cruise (or good gearing), decent sound. No sound can be fine, also. Same with smoke. If the buttons on a CAB-1 won't access a "feature", I lack interest in it anyway. So - NOS can be a cheap and interesting portal into items that are potentially mechanically superior to current catalogued items.

I bought a new MTH GM&O RS-1 Alco "souvenir" from Mike's Last Catalogue. Weird to get something that was made just last week, as it were.