Perhaps this will happen to our trains too?

This is a good thread Nicole, even if we have beat this horse a number of times over the years.

The first thing I would like to say is that I like clean water and air just like any sensible person in the world. But, it's like George Washington said, "government is like fire it is a good thing, though it must be contained or it will burn your house down". OK, close enough.

As for toy train production, they better be thinking about bringing it home or they will be out of business in five years. The problem with these off shore factories is the lack of control of property rights as well as some local dictator taking over everything a company has. Or,as has been reported on these pages some engineer taking your lunch home with him.

The cost of shipping is becoming more of a problem then labor, not to mention the monies lost due to trying to find reliable production facilities. Who can be depended on in January of 2012 can be useless the following year because many of them are depended on one or two key people who may blow out the door with your data files.

We also have another issue that must be considered and that is the world is starting to arm like we have not seen since the early1900's. I'm not  a political expert but when ever the world has built large militaries with no world power to check them we have war.

The Soviets and the West had each other, but the Soviets are no longer and we are shrinking. Hopefully I am wrong, but things do not look good if history is a reliable teacher.

In short, I feel that the big money see this coming and will try to prepare for the inevitable. So for the above reasons I would guess that toy train production will be back in about five years. It will be a trickle at first as we see in the Lionel Presidents cars, but as time passes we will see more and more of it.

A good analogy is the answer a NASA engineer gave to the question of why does man have to get off of this planet? He said,"because a sitting target is doomed"! Sooner or later the planet earth will take a mega hit from any number of natural disasters so we better get moving now.

I read the article on Whirlpool. It doesn't tell the whole story.They fail to mention all the Whirlpool plants that have been closed recently.Clyde,Ohio is a minor plant.The largest Whirlpool plant in the US was the Side By Side refrigerator plant in Ft.Smith,Arkansas. This plant closed at the end of 2009.Over 6000 people lost jobs including untold jobs that supported this plant. I had the pleasure of visiting this plant while conducting ISO-9001 quality audits from 1996 until 2006. The one square mile sized plant now stands empty.I expect Siemens,Samsung,Electrolux AB or Lucky-Goldstar (LG) will buy the facility.

The real reason the plant closed is that GE,LG and Samsung all have US plants and a better quality track record.GE is really eating WP's lunch.Whirlpool is a big bloated company trying to stay afloat-so you start closing plants due to lack of sales.

I'm with Allan on this.I don't ever see the bulk of train and toy production returning to the US.

Yea right, have you seen the air pollution in Beijing lately?

Ladies & Gentlemen,

   If you want an American made train Weaver makes them right here and its one of the big reasons I purchase some kind of Weaver Product each and every year.

PCRR/Dave

The 0-8-0 Weaver Masonic work Train and she's a beauty.

Your Weaver 0-8-0 was made by Samhongsa in Korea for Weaver and decorated in the USA.All of Weaver's brass STEAM locomotives are imports. 

Boomer,

   Not this one I got one of the last engines built in the USA, however you are correct most of the Weaver engines are now built in China or Korea.  It's why I purchase the custom rolling stock from them now, if they make an engine here, I always look at it.

PCRR/Dave

The big difference now is the cheaper price of robotics. Robots are becoming cheaper than foreign labor and now production of all kinds of goods are moving back to the US.

Doc,

  You are absolutely correct and in the near future if we can get someone business friendly into the Whitehouse, you will see a lot of work returning to the USA.

We need to get rid of the government agencies that are undermining our American businesses.  Robotics and Natural Gas will boom the American economy in the near future.

PCRR/Dave

Not quite!  Their diesels are made right here in the good old U.S. of A.

Allan,you are correct but I was talking about brass steam locomotives.All my Weaver locomotives are steam and imported. 

Yup because I love air I can't breathe and dead fish in rivers

Should regs be looked at yes, would you want to live in a country with no environmental regs, **** NO

Just buy a old All Nation boxcar kit , write down the time you start , and keep track of the hours it takes to make it as nice as current cars like a Lionel PS 1 boxcar  for 59.00

if you take 6 hrs to build the kit at 8 bucks an hr , you got 48 in wages now add on the other stuff , the building the insurance profit , etc. That  is the facts  We live in a 15-20 dollar per hr country minimum to maintain just a normal lower middle class life,

So who you gonna get to put grab irons on a 40 ft boxcar all day in America , nobody !

Can't sit there and do that tedius work day in day out., That's why Apple makes the parts here and has the assembly done in Asia . Americans can't and won't do it. To busy texting , coffee break , **** break ,smoking break and no attention span , you would need a place to house about 50,000 workers , can you imagine the screw ups.

Alot of people in this country are soft, lazy and looking for quick buck.

Just my opinion.

Hi "Scratchbuilder", this may be true, but it's the system that permits this sort of thing. Let that system demand that people produce and they will. Our government and big business are one and the same. When one needs something the other will respond and I don't care what party they are in, or support.

I really love america and I wish I could believed like some of you do that America is going to turn things around in the next 5 years or so like has been stated. We need people to bring back all manufacturing including toy trains.

Yes, Robotics will be in our future, but Robotics will be in every other countrys future also. These other countries can afford them as well as this country. OMHO

I also wonder who is building the robotics these days.

I am very happy I was able to get an American made boxcar last month and I hope that the future brings many, many more.

In part because the jeeps being built in China don't meet US safety and pollution standards, but more importantly, given the low wages in China, they couldn't affford a Jeep made here. BTW, it is no longer Daimler Chrysler, hasn't been for several years, it is now owned by FIAT (who ironically is turning Chrysler around in terms of making a quality car, who would have thought?)

Actually, that is the saving grace of the US and the western countries. China basically has taken over manufacturing because they have a hugh population desperate for work, probably 2/3rd's of their 1 billion people live in near poverty conditions, and thus the wages are very low there (yeah, I am sure not having OSHA and the EPA cuts cost, but the primary benefit is wages). Put it this way, the average manufacturing wage in China is about 50c an hour, even with improvements, with no benefits. This is nothing new, a lot of China's strength has always been using a large, relatively ordered population to do things, like build the great wall.

The problem is, to create jobs China is locked into that model, it is a two edged sword. If they start automating plants, which cuts down the number of workers, what happens to the displaced workers? China likes the model they have today, because it provides for a lot of jobs in what is basically 19th century industrial production.

Several years ago McKimsey sent consultants into China, showing them all these steps they could take to increase efficiency and cut down on labor, and the leaders kind of looked at them like they were on drugs or something.  We keep hearing about how our population is getting older and so forth, but there is an advantage to a relative small population, roboticized industrial production takes fewer but more skilled workers, that pay better, so in theory it can provide great jobs for those working, while doing so at a cost/unit that is competitive with third world labor rates.

The other factor is that Chinese labor is becoming more expensive, and though it seems like it would take a long time for labor prices to cause a shift, it wouldn't take much before China stops being all that cheap, between the cost of labor, and also the losses in that market due to inefficiency, bad product build, corruption and such, plus the rising cost of shipping stuff, and the eventual strengthening of the chinese currency, means it could become competitive to build here. It probably would take a long time for it to happen with toy trains, but with other things, it could.

What probably will eventually kill the chinese is if they ever develop 3D printing to its full capability, they wouldn't be able to compete...whether it will be a significant player, I don't know, but it might.

There is another factor, though...if we keep shipping jobs to cheap labor markets, who is going to buy the products? I realize Harvard Business school and its various alumni think the world is all executives, but as Henry Ford, not exactly a socialist, said "If I pay my workers 5 bucks a day" (then considered heretical) "they can afford to buy my product"...I don;'t think you will hear too many Chinese managers saying that...

Hey bigkid. Yes it is no longer Daimler Chrysler The jeeps will be built in China by Chrysler Jeep. According to Huffington Post Jan.15,2013. Thanks for correcting me.

I believe I am looking at China's Capabilities differently then you are. I understand they have very cheap labor, but that does not mean everyone in the country is poor. For instance an article in Forbes reads China Overtakes U.S. in Luxury Watch Demand, according to Rolex and Omega.(U.S.was #1 in the Luxury watch market) The entry level for a Rolex watch today is about $6,000.00 and I know they are not looking for entry level. I have heard of other big buck items in demand over there also. I also hear they are buying as much gold as they can. This tells me they have the people smart enough to keep the manufacturing edge they have. I just don't see China rolling over while robots bring our manufacturing and jobs back. OMHO

Again, I hope I'm wrong for the sake of This Great American Country I love.

I wonder how many of their population run trains like we do.

PS Nobody tell Allan that Samsung chips are made in Texas and put in Apple products!

Golly. I didn't mean to start WWIII. My intention was simply to provide some interesting information on some manufacturing that is returning to the USA, and to perhaps provide a little hope that more may follow. I did not intend to start a political mud-slinging contest, neither did I intend to suggest that products made in any particular country were inferior to others.

For those who read the article that I provided a link to, you will see that the reasons for some of these moves are more related to reducing long lead times in production, and changes in production, that are a necessary part of off-shore manufacturing. When this is coupled with being better able to control quality issues, both real and perceived, plus helping to boost the local economy, you can see why some manufacturers are keen to manufacture locally.  Moving manufacturing off-shore may have saved many companies from going under some years ago, but changing circumstances and attitudes are now enabling them to return to their roots as stronger and better companies.

Please don't use this thread as a political soap-box, but instead look upon this information as an indication that changes are happening. 

Hi Nicole, I don't think most of the post are political at all, economic forces are what they are. When our governments, especially the US congress gave companies incentives to move off shore they hoped to tie the world together using these forces.

Now, fourty or fifty years later things have changed and they, our governments will try to address things as they are today, or at lest we hope they do. It dose not make much diffrence what political party members you talk to we all wont to bring jobs home so as to put people to work and everyone of us hold a diversity of opinions on all associated issues.

The question, or observation you brought up is very simple in concept, but complex in it's dynamics. Besides, you got us on a roll kid, can't stop us now!

One thing's for sure:  You can't beat good old American quality control.  Just ask Boeing. 

Nicole: I for one would like to thank you for starting this thread, After what happened with the American made boxcars this year, the timing was perfect.

I would also love to see manufacturing return to the USA with the quality we are known for. No disrespect to you or any one on this forum. I just have my doubts.

Thanks again for the Great Thread, Regards, Casey.

Nicole - this is a great thread.  You didn't start a war, you just threw a really interesting, very complicated, topic out there in front of a bunch of old curmudgeons who enjoy being feisty and chewing on a topic. 

Certainly during a recession, but even in the best of times, there are people who tend to be pessimistic about change, who see the present as worse than the past and the trend for the future as right down the toilet.  There are also people who, for whatever reason, could be described as Polly-Annas - overt optimists.  Meaning no offense, I include Allan Miller in the former  category (he'd probably prefer the term "healthy skeptic" which is fine with me), and by now everyone on this forum knows that on nearly any topic I'm always looking for the bright side.  It makes for healthy and interesting discussion and if kept civil, everyone is the better for it.  Plus, it's fun in a way.  I hope this thread continues for some time. 

Toward that end, I'll state this one additional thought, which will bve a long road for anyone who wants to read it, but gets to something not brought up yet that I think is the key here.  In my professional capacity I have been paid to study this broad topic (trends in energy independence and manufacturing, employment, and the US economy) and advise several big companies on strategy, etc.  I recently completed an assignment with a US company that was looking at if and where to relocate its manufacturing.  Analysis showed China, etc., were out.  It also showed that western central Mexico looked very good (think about it, it's a Pacific rim country, too).  But they decided to return theirmanufacturing to the US, because the Mexico looked only a tiny bit better and some of the risks in the US were quite a bit less.  I think in many categories of consumer and industrail products, the business case for "there versus here" is already there and has been for several years, except for the need for capital.  You need cash to build robot factories (the only way to manufacture in the US) whereas you only need a pen to sign a contract with a Chinese company.  Particularly in a recession, cash (which most companies have to borrow) was hard to come buy.  That situation is easing a bit and with it I expect, maybe not a rush quite yet, but a steady move toward "modern manufacturing" in the US.

That said, here is where I am going.  Lionel, MTH, (and I think others that I have not looked at like RMT) are privately held companies and what financial figures on them I can get (admittedly, few) don't make them out to be the most profitable, cash-rich companies in the world.  Private companies, particuarly small ones (I think every company in the model train field, except maybe Bachmann, which is chinese (Kader - Sanda Kan) is small, can find it much more costly to get capital so it may be harder for them to get on this train (pun intended) and make the switch soon.  But I think they will, eventually.

Very true Allan.(and I did see the smiling face) I was once told by a chinese manufacturer that the product he was producing in his plant (Reproduction American Clocks) had no Quality Control Division. He said they packaged and shipped everything they made, regardless. He told me this was part of his profit margin stating that a lot of defective items are never returned anyway.

American manufactures have more pride then this.

I have seen posts on this forum about trains that are bought and have problems then turned into shelf queens, without being returned. 

There is no perfect world and China is up to it's armpits in problems, specifically air pollution. Bejing is among the worst and it has gotten so bad ( after being cleaned up for the Olympics) the Chinese official media calls breathing it a health hazard, which for them to admit this is unprecedented. If you look at photographs that up until recently had to be smuggled out of China, the air is a sickly yellow brown. Everyone wears masks. Anyone recall the flood of U.S manufacturers to Mexico? The just as quickly, most pulled back out. The issue that reversed the trend? Quality. Keeping costs down in comparison to making defective products..losing consumer confidence..it doesn't matter in the end how much overhead is saved if you win one battle simply to lose the war. Short term versus long term market sustainability.

Just as in the former USSR government controlled economies are a sleight of hand, and behind the scenes, labor tensions, corruption etc are rife. Not exactly a stable environment unless you consider a short term boon the point of the exercise at the expense of your customers and your reputation. Think I am exaggerating? From Bejing two days ago... 

Nicole, I really enjoy this thread as well as similar posts. While not the subject matter that's typically posted it's invigorating, thought provoking and definitely provides insight of those who post.

Incidentally, unlike trains where new models are released just annually (if that), many products, especially electronics, are released more often each year due to both planned obsolesence and the fact that before they're even shipped from the manufacturing plant to warehouse, a new and improved model has been designed and readied for production. A long wait for items to arrive from overseas impacts that process and the rate of innovation. 

Until something MAJOR happens in the supply chain for our hobby I don’t think the manufacturing will retune to theUSAanytime soon.

I can see parts of the supply side shift:

 If the environment pollution inChinacontinues to be out of control then there could be a more of a shift to other countries*not the (USA). As the standard of living inChinaimproves that will drive manufacturing out ofChinaand to other locations.

If enough cost can be cut out of the supply chain maybe the distribution centers will be off shore.

If quality improves to a point, and if the younger generations enter our hobby, maybe down the road our “LHS” that continue  trending  towards more and more on line ordering will result in the online supplier being off shore.

Other Paradigm shifts could have impacts on locations.

For example if the end user of the product gets dissatisfied with the delivery schedules that we are experiencing some suppliers could sort our how to make large step changes in delivery times and that could result in shifts in the manufacturing locations.

Should the number of MAJOR SUPPLY CHAIN PLAYERS COMPRESS we could see impact on the locations of the point of manufacture but more likely not back to theUSA.

Should the hobby grow more in other parts of the world than here in theUSAthat could effect sourcing.

To me at this point I can see the possibility of a lot of Supply chain changes BUT the likely hood of a return to USA sourcing for the majority of our hobby’s products is not in sight.

Wow Lee Willis thanks, for the points.  I had not considered those.  Always appreciate new insights! 

And as for Boeing, the lithium batteries implicated were not made in the US (but were made in countries that I would say should have better quality control, Japan and France). 

Back to the topic, Baxter is really cool. Some of the points from Rethink are that the robot would cost no more and possibly less than an emplyee in China doing the same job or about 1/3 that of a US worker. The Baxter can be 'taught' in minutes how to do a job. I am not sure but I beleive the current Baxter excels at gross skills such as simple sorting and packing and some assembly, but not fine skills such as placing a ladder on a boxcar. There are robots that are capable of this, but the cost of entry is high and I doubt you could fully automate the production of train cars, let alone steam locomotives.

If there's anything to be gleaned from this thread it's that the OGR Forum should RULE THE WORLD!

Pete

Here are a couple of articles in The Atlantic that discuss the future of manufacturing in America.

There is hope but also danger in the evolution of manufacturing.

The Insourcing Boom

http://www.theatlantic.com/mag...ourcing-boom/309166/

Making it in America

http://www.theatlantic.com/mag...t-in-america/308844/

Nope.

Not going to happen in Yours or my lifetime.It may not be china but trust me it will be overseas. Our trains are destined to be made by unskilled labor no matter where it is. Quality control was no better when it was made in the USA. 

Well - glad I don't live in your world (and your state, just left their - what antiquated liquor store laws, wowLionel locos before I am done for . . .

Ironically, quality control isn't that good on the prototypes, either.  We're on our way back from Philly to NC on the Silver Star, stuck in DC and now running late because "one of the new diesels won't start" so they have to switch it out. 

An entire shipment of Chicago Transit Authority cars were immediately pulled from service shortly after their delivery due to the defective Chinese steel used in the construction of the car's trucks..which I imagine caused some "disappointment " arising from the buyers perhaps akin to that having their toy train fail upon receipt.

From the press release:

"In late November, CTA inspectors working at Bombardier’s Plattsburgh, NY, manufacturing facility noticed a flaw in the quality of a casting used to create wheel bearing housings.  The casting is molded steel that is later machined—or refined—to specific specifications.

The casting was replaced and no further issues were detected until earlier this week when CTA inspectors noted a second quality issue with a casting at the Plattsburgh facility.  CTA and Bombardier immediately began more inspections and discovered issues with other castings.

The parts are undergoing rigorous testing and while the testing is not complete, CTA decided as a precaution to take the 5000-Series cars out of service until more information is gathered."

The followup:

"Internally defective and potentially dangerous steel parts from China that could break and lead to a derailment were installed on the cars manufactured for the CTA by Bombardier Transportation, according to the transit agency's internal investigation.

"The inferior craftsmanship found on the safety-sensitive parts in the rail car truck assembly, which supports much of a train's weight, raises serious questions about Bombardier's quality-control process on the new generation of CTA trains, the investigation found. The CTA is the first transit agency to purchase the cars, known as the 5000 Series. The contract for 706 of those cars totals more than $1 billion."