The Future of Current Train Manufactuers

What factors are you talking about?    I feel the hobby is strong.

Mikado 4501 posted:

It's only recently come to me that almost all of the O gauge train manufacturers that started their businesses in the modern era have disappeared for the most part.

Ones that come to mind would be K-Line, Weaver, Williams, and even Right of Way. All of these that had such strong introductions in the late 80's (essentially the first boom time of toy trains in the modern era) are now gone. Williams is now absorbed by Bachmann, Weaver and K-Line are absorbed by Lionel, and Right of Way faded into obscurity.

I'm still happy that we still have MTH and Atlas as well as 3rd Rail and Golden Gate Depot, but I can't help but feel a bit concerned about the manufacturers still living in the future. I guess it is survival of the fittest these days.

However, I also wonder if the lack of competition today might explain some other factors going on in the hobby.

Thomas,

Lack of Competition...............really? Competition is alive and well between MTH, Lionel, Atlas, and 3rd Rail! ?

What other factors going on in the hobby?

Regards,

Swafford

Time's are a changing. The days of announcing a project and just making it are gone. We have to wait and see if there are enough orders to support any given project. Then we have to make sure the factory can handle the price and quantity. It's not easy these days. I often think why am I doing this for so little, especially when a factory goes rogue as they did on us last year costimg us nearly all our tooling and profit for the year. Then suddenly a project takes off and the enthusiasm returns. It's all about YOU, the customer. If you stop dreaming, ordering, buying, building your layouts and your hobby, then the businesses that support it will fade away.

So...... whatcha waiting for?

http://www.3rdrail.com

http://www.goldengatedepot.com

Buy something today!!!

Scott,

I dreamed  that you offered a nice brass set of Dalman trucks (and other types of trucks), something us O-scalers desperately need as most companies that offered them have quit.  I even have drawings of these Dalman trucks (from N&W HS website):

(Dalman trucks):

Have you given thought to offering the trucks you've made in the past to us for individual sale?  I did buy 2 pairs of passenger car trucks from you a couple of years back, but I think they were inventory spares and not a general release item.

Like the trucks on the Silver Meteor cars, I could sure use a couple of extras of those too.

I agree with Marty and Swafford.  Although it's sad to see some of the manufacturers/importers fade away, the remaining "players" are still giving us a huge selection of products to choose from.

As I look at my shelves full of engine boxes, I see a healthy mix of MTH, Lionel and AtlasO...and I currently have pre-orders placed for future items from all three of them, so I'm doing my small part in keeping them going!

I am also ready, willing and would absolutely love to add my first item from 3rd Rail/GGD if/when Scott were to offer some (more) steam and diesel engines in the road names I model/collect (Jersey Central/Delaware & Hudson/Lehigh Valley).

If prices keep skyrocketing, there won't be a future.  I don't know about most of you but some of this stuff coming out today is past my price point.

1.  Bachmann has Williams, but they have cut back on production.  Maybe they feel there is too much product out there right now.

2. Weaver's stuff has been "Conrailed"; split between various companies.  Lione Scale is Lionelized Weaver.

3.  Really, except for some modern LRT cars, and smaler steamers, like the T&NO SUNBEAM, my guess is most items people want are out there.  If not, people like 3RD Rail will import it IF they get enough orders for a green light!

sdmann posted:

Time's are a changing. The days of announcing a project and just making it are gone. We have to wait and see if there are enough orders to support any given project. Then we have to make sure the factory can handle the price and quantity. It's not easy these days. I often think why am I doing this for so little, especially when a factory goes rogue as they did on us last year costimg us nearly all our tooling and profit for the year. Then suddenly a project takes off and the enthusiasm returns. It's all about YOU, the customer. If you stop dreaming, ordering, buying, building your layouts and your hobby, then the businesses that support it will fade away.

So...... whatcha waiting for?

http://www.3rdrail.com

http://www.goldengatedepot.com

Buy something today!!!

Well Scott, I'm waiting for 3rd Rail to do the C&O K3/K3a, with Vandy and the big Rectangular Tender's. Then do the NYC H10's.

All were of the "Super Makido" stature! 

You'd probably sell more of these, than the T&P 2-10-4's that you are wanting to run!...........

Scott, I never did hear back from you on getting info for the C&O H6, like I said, we have the 1309's twin sister in Huntington, Wv!.....................Brandy! 

SDMann's comment really sums it up.

Don't get me wrong, Lionel, MTH, Atlas, 3rd Rail and GGD are still doing great and feel like they're going really strong, but it is a whole different enviroment than I remember 10 years ago.

And Gary really hits the nail on the head. The continually rising MSRP's of product is the main factor I've been seeing since the disappearance of Williams and Weaver in particular. Maybe it's just my bizarre bias, I don't know.

Maybe its just me being dumb, but what possible indicators has anyone received that make them believe that the cost of trains will go down or even stay the same?

Prices of all the products I have worked with since 1987 have gone up... never down.

What I am missing, please, tell me why you think prices should stay the same from run to run or year to year from the manufactures.

Charlie

Well, we have seen companies and businesses come and go the last few years. Weaver, RMT, Williams, and K-Line  most of the tooling now owned by other companies. I feel that the selection is getting slim but I feel we still got a lot more things that are selectable than other hobbies. Look at the other scales, they have slim pickings at there selection of stuff they want to run.

Williams was bought out by Bachmann, but I feel that Bachmann is slowly trying to shake off the Williams line and/or bank-rupt the Williams name so they can make most of their money on the H.O. and N scale items. Have you compared the prices for new Bachmann/Williams against MTH? WBB may have a better sound system but they don't have command control from the factory and for the price of a new MTH item verse WBB I would buy the MTH item before the new WBB item.

Lee Fritz

The companies are doing the best they can dealing with the other side of the world.   

The only constant in the business world is "change".  Some for the better some not.  If you like it, you had better get it now.

Judging from the apparent success of the Menards items there definitely is a niche to be filled.

Pete

Seems that like most things, they have their ups and downs.  It seems to me that in the early 2000's up to 2010 they were putting in great features for reasonable prices, and no are taking away some of these feature like cab specific crew talk and increasing the prices.  But like all things, if things don't sell as well, they'll start adding new features to try to increase sales and justify pricing.

Regarding "lack of competition"  it will be interesting to see if Menards and O-line, as well as major marketers of the huge volume of "used but serviceable items" such as E-bay and TRAINZ, have properly filled the niche vacated by MTH (rugged rail), atlas (industrial rail), and Lionel (MPC style rolling stock, traditional 027 track).   It occurs to me that Menards, O-line, E-bay and Trainz (along with others I have failed to mention) provide substantial competition for any manufacturer of toy/model trains.

Steam Rules

"a country boy can survive!"      (Bocephus,   1981)

As to Menards and O Line Reproductions, they look like either Williams freight cars or RMT freight cars. Yes they do fill a void in the model train market for lower price items.

The next few years will be interesting to see who survives in the O gauge model train business.

Lee Fritz

As prices go up for the premium items we will buy less quantity but continue to patronize the manufacturers that offer the high end products we love like GGD passenger cars and Vision Line locomotives. Of course, at some point, many of us will reach saturation. If I am not close, I don't know what I will do with the trains I have coming in now. Perhaps building a layout would allow me to take some trains off of the shelves?

I also think that many of the "active" modelers that are buying stuff are in the same boat as I am.  I would love to have some of the bigger engines, but out of my price range and to large for my small layout.  My whole house is only 975 sq ft and thats with a 1 car garage.  Several of the local 3 rail guys that I know are sticking to the older Lionel, Williams, K line, MTH stuff that can handle 031 or 027 curves as thats all the room they have.  Small layouts seem to be making a comeback from my own observations of other forums that mix all the scales together.  When a smaller scale manufacture makes a smaller steamer, it gets gobbled up as its an underserved niche of the hobby.  Everybody seems to want to make more F units and Big Boys.  Where as the work a day steamers that made up the bread and butter of most rosters are underserved in current models.  I also would love to see an NYC H10 Mike, or a GN O8 super Mike imported.  But both would be out of reach money wise and never go around my curves.  Now if someone imported a USRA light 2-8-2 with NKP style flying numberboards, I might find a way to get that one.  Have considered taking one of the older Lionel ones and repainting it, atleast it can manage 042 curves if I remember right.   The hobby will survive, but only the strongest companies, the smartest companies will be with us.  Just the ebb and flow of the hobby, happened in the 60's and 70's to Lionel, they survived and are still here.  We just have to wait for the kids to shift back to the whats old is new in hobbies again.  Mike

One of the issues raised in the current political mishmash if the issue of tariffs on goods from China.  Any such tariff could drastically increase prices and thereby lessen participation in the hobby.

I guess I could deal with buying a few high dollar engines IF they provided long term service like days gone by. I will not invest in an engine that has no company back up after 3 years. The days of having many compatible parts is gone and so are my big dollar purchases.

sdmann posted:

... It's all about YOU, the customer. If you stop dreaming, ordering, buying, building your layouts and your hobby, then the businesses that support it will fade away. So...... whatcha waiting for....Buy something today!!!

Like Scott says! 

With what ??  I have to eat, too.

If you read the entire thread from Scott Mann about china, you should get the clear message. But let's remember why Williams, K-line and Weaver Models are no longer with us.

K-line - Was using copyrighted Lionel products to advance their product lineup. Stealing trade secrets will get you in court with law suits. I miss K-line just like the rest of you, but selling their products just pennies over cost will not keep money in the bank.

Weaver Models - Owner wanted to retire, was looking for someone to take over the business. Had 40+ employees back in 2002 when I got into O scale trains. Only 10 left when they closed, anyone who went to weaver to take a tour should of saw the "lack" of employees to notice the downfall after 2008. Also think about when they sold the E8 molds to MTH, maybe needed a influx of "cash" to keep going or to make a new freight car mold. Joe said to make one new mold was about $200,000.00, he would need to sell 4000 freight cars at $50 a piece just to pay for the mold before any profit was made and that was back in 2006 when he told me.

Williams - Owner wanted to retire, was bought out by Bachmann. I did not know much about Williams until way after Bachmann owned them. Bachmann is not getting rid of the Williams line, they are letting the NOS leave the shelves that are still in hobby shops. Bachmann is bringing the diesels back with new sound boards and slight upgrades when they return. In the video from the TCA museum back in april 2016, they said the E7 was coming back and the scale GG1 is back. They brought the FA-1 AB back with the new sound and new railroad colors. If you saw that video, you also saw that they made a HO E7 mold from the original Williams molds. They also said the passenger cars were coming back too, and let's not forget about the scale 44 Ton that was produced.  Bachmann is adding the same products to all different scales at different times, how much does that cost.

Look at the price's of new freight cars today in a new catalog, see above about a new tooling mold. Atlas and Lionel have doubled the price of a new freight car, MTH is a little cheaper but not by much. 

I just saw in the last new Lionel catalog that legacy can now be controlled by DCC, that technology is not cheap. I remember when Mike Wolf said they spent close to 3 millions dollars to upgrade 2.0 to 3.0 to work with DCC in HO. We now have DCC control on 2 rail O scale diesel and steam engines with smoke units that was never offered in 2 rail. "THANK YOU MTH"

Everyone wants all of the bells and whistles, now it's time to pay the price for what YOU wanted. But I hear it every time a new catalog comes out, that's a nice engine or freight car but not at that price.....

I just hope to heck Menards is making money on their model railroad project and it is not just a publicity/advertising write-off.  I want them to keep at it, as they have introduced some new structures into the hobby, and may have the finances and clout to go farther.  As for above, if 3rd Rail has no interest, as apparently do none of the other three rail mfrs. (since Weaver), in offering trucks for separate sale (and I want archbars!),  Menards could jump into that..IF their analysis says they could make money at it.  Way back in the glory days of K-Line ramping up, I heard dealers in shows complaining about "too much product".  Too much replication of the same old product was the problem as I saw it, and that is  still going on. They just wanted to sell the same old ****.    If the choice was big,  the customer would buy something else.  Or, as I do, buy nothing because it isn't interesting to me.  I only got interested in Lionel compatible three rail after Williams came out with their brass USRA series, with NEW PROTOTYPES!  How dare them!  Third Rail offers nice locos, but most are of roads that do not appeal to me, and it is probably not feasible for a short, custom-run maker, to offer a scale! Porter, a 30 ton  two truck Heisler, or several of the small locomotives I would have bought, paid for, and long owned IF they had existed (and still would buy).   A lower price per each means 3rd Rail would have to sell a lot of Porters, to justify the effort.  BUT...wouldn't a lower price point sell a lot more locomotives?  Of course, I don't know how the economics of that really works out......where the breakeven is, how much of a pain the logistics of handling a much larger number of items is....quality control?...Scott will know....

My biggest issue with the newer engines is the price! I won't pay $1500.00 or more for a new engine even if it is scale and has all the whistles and bells.

Lee Fritz

DL&W Pete posted:

Everyone wants all of the bells and whistles, now it's time to pay the price for what YOU wanted.

No, Pete, not everyone.

Mikado 4501 posted:

It's only recently come to me that almost all of the O gauge train manufacturers that started their businesses in the modern era have disappeared for the most part.

 

However, I also wonder if the lack of competition today might explain some other factors going on in the hobby.

mth and atlas O started in the "modern era"...you refer to...it looks like they are hanging in there...

we have more to choose from then ever before .....no lack of competition here....how much more do you want?

This is how the world works.   I've been employed by two smaller companies that were eventually consumed by larger companies for various reasons.   Also, the market drives the prices.  Someone has to be buying the expensive locos as they keep manufacturing them.   I stick to the $300-$400 models.   I like the bells and whistles.  

I'm starting to change my tune on the pre-order model.   I really enjoy looking at the items on the shelf before I make a purchase.  However; they make a lot of items that really don't interest me.  The pre-order model gives me the opportunity to essentially vote on what I would like the manufacturer to produce.  What I dislike is the timing.   I hate the inability to estimate the accurate arrival of products.

Charlie posted:

Maybe its just me being dumb, but what possible indicators has anyone received that make them believe that the cost of trains will go down or even stay the same?

Prices of all the products I have worked with since 1987 have gone up... never down.

What I am missing, please, tell me why you think prices should stay the same from run to run or year to year from the manufactures.

Charlie

Perhaps our problem is that disposable income for most folks in the hobby has stayed flat or even gone down. Since 1987. Been reported, even if not in the standard MSM.

Jim Berger posted:

Mikado 4501 posted:

It's only recently come to me that almost all of the O gauge train manufacturers that started their businesses in the modern era have disappeared for the most part.

 

However, I also wonder if the lack of competition today might explain some other factors going on in the hobby.

mth and atlas O started in the "modern era"...you refer to...it looks like they are hanging in there...

we have more to choose from then ever before .....no lack of competition here....how much more do you want?

Hence the words 'almost all.'

There are still a good amount of niches to fill in the market, and a bit more now that the ones that I mentioned are gone.

I'm not concerned really with Lionel and MTH, since they show no signs of weakness.

What I am concerned is if someone like Weaver, Williams, etc. wanted to start business for themselves, and how long they would last themselves. There is still some opportunity for proprietors in this O gauge market.

superwarp1 posted:

If prices keep skyrocketing, there won't be a future.  I don't know about most of you but some of this stuff coming out today is past my price point.

Much of it was out of a lot of people's price point in 1954. Nothing has changed on that front, never will.

Overall, I am impressed with the competition and options available to us all in this great hobby. 

1. MTH upping the tech side with the wifi app. Awesome!!!

2. Lionel upping the sound quality in the locos. Awesome!!!

3. Atlas upping the detail of passenger cars. Awesome!!!

4. Williams by Bachmann keeping the conventional operators in high quality equipment with sound at excellent price point. Awesome!!!

5. 3rd Rail always making highly detailed and accurate never before made items. Awesome!!!

6. Menards jumping in the game with great products at great prices marketed in a very personal and entertaining fashion. Awesome!!!

Im sorry, but I just don't see the world as you do. The guys and gals at all of these companies are busting their humps to make great products for us to enjoy at all levels of the hobby. Thank you to them all so that we can have some fun with our spare time. 

Markets will always support companies that do a great job and provide a great product. Never be afraid of competition. 

Now let's all go have some fun and run our trains!!!

If the electronic don't improve in reliability I wonder how many of  you are going down the same path as I: have to save the money to repair all the ones I own instead of buying new ones.

Also re-issues of past re-issues of past offerings is getting a little old.  How many different versions of NKP 765 does one really need on their layout?

That may impact the industry a little if it's a common plea.

Scott Mann posted: "So...... whatcha waiting for?"

Well - my on-order NYC R-2 freight electric, for one thing...any progress?

Also: L&N M-1 Berkshire (yes, it will sell - I can count 4 just among my friends); NYC K-5 Pacific in 3-Rail (the Mercury doesn't count - and I already have it); NYC H-10 Mike (K-5 more important); and - the little-known NYC 2-6-6-2, class NE-2 (they had over 60 of them) - smallish, you could do under 072, I imagine. 

Off the wall: NC&StL 4-8-4 streamstyled Dixie , in both "Stripes" and "Yellowjacket" versions (5 sold already; I'll take one of each); DRGW 4-6-6-4 L-105 (not the UP-type L-97).

There's a lot of speculation on this forum. Sit back, relax and enjoy your trains. They'll be here long after most of us are gone.

Rod Miller

If people buy products at a price that induces someone to make it, it will be made.

If we continue on with the I want a $500 product for $50, guess what, you are not going to see any new product / there is no future for the train manufacturers.

The future is up to us.

let's not forget woodland scenic. their new buildings are setting a new standard in quality and detail. so much better than the ho hum structures we have been seeing. and their great lighting system. modular and expandable.