Tinplate values holding up?

The presence of reproductions usually divides the values of original stuff. The best condition original stuff maintains its value, while the original stuff in poorer condition sees its value go down.

It also depends on the going price of operator grade originals versus the price of the reproduction pieces.

Then there are the operators who like can motors and cruise control in pristine appearing reproduction stuff.

Thanks RoyBoy. Pretty much what I thought.

I also concur with Roy, the less that perfect or mint in the box examples go down in value.  Mint/boxed anything train wise will hold value over time, might go up and down but will hold its own.  But for the most part, trains have not recovered value wise to thier pre recession levels.  Its very much a buyers market right now and probably will be for awhile to come.  As more of the generation that grew up with these trains pass on, more will come onto the market that has less interested buyers.  I see less modelers interested in tinplate, or older Lionel/AF in general.  I hope that changes.  I was born in 1973, so I grew up with the MPC and LTI era of Lionel.  But my taste as always been in late prewar and early postwar Lionel.  I am only now dipping my toes in Standard Gauge, buying a 8e to restore and some track from the LHS to run it on.   Mike

Sam,

I also agree with Roy, to a certain degree. I own none of the modern stuff. Everything is pre-1934. The newbies are interested in the pretty new tinplate. This just makes more vintage trains available for parts.(in most cases)In other cases more trains for restoration. We must always consider the fact that our trains are only worth what the next buyer is willing to pay.

That pretty much describes my venture into Standard Gauge tinplate a couple of years ago.  So all of my purchases have been newly manufactured product with sounds and modern electronics.  Will I regret opting to pass on the traditional locomotive motors in favor of PS3?  Only time will tell.  But coming into this from O-Gauge Hi-Rail, it seemed a natural choice.

I am an operator in this game, and I have no interest in paying premium dollar for original pre-war trains -- regardless of condition.  The word "original" does nothing for me, since I'm not motivated to build a roster of Standard Gauge "original trains" in the way that a traditional collector would build a huge wall display.

MTH sure isn't giving away the new tinplate stuff either.  When they re-ran the Ives trains last year, there was an approximate $400+ premium over the products produced nearly 10 years earlier.  So from that perspective, MTH isn't undercutting existing "modern" tinplate product with their latest re-issues.

However, the effect on original pre-war trains?  That's a collectors' niche all onto its own, but I wonder how long that market can sustain a "collector culture" that's gotten wrapped up with stratospheric prices for mint/LN-condition equipment.  I'm more than happy to purchase new tinplate trains at a fraction of the price compared to what "established" Standard Gauge enthusiasts would want for similar pieces in their prized pre-war collections.

So I'm very glad MTH is re-issuing LCT Standard Gauge tinplate at somewhat "reasonable" prices.  If they didn't, I wouldn't have ventured into Standard Gauge in the first place.  

David

I'm not convinced that reproductions have effected the middle range value of original trains all that much. I think the biggest factor in the lower prices for operator grade trains is that of the internet. In the old days, you only saw what came to a train show. These days, anyone who finds a train puts it on the internet which has caused there to be more available than people once imagined. Case in point, the Lionel 219 crane. Years ago, these were the car to have. You would need to fork over a few hundred dollars to get a decent one. In fact you can look in some older price guides and see the rarity of these cars being quite high. Today, you can buy a decent runner for around $80. Is that because of the reproductions? I think not, it is more the fact that there are a lot more of them out there than our forefathers thought.

On the reproduction market, the appeal for these is that they are bright and shiny. Plus you don't need to feel bad about operating it. If you look at the values of the reproductions, they are in worse shape than the originals by far. You can easily buy a repro piece just a few years after its release for less than 50% of its original cost.

These are just my observations of the market over the last bunch of years. Everyone has their own opinions of why they would want an original or reproduction. Whatever the case, don't buy a train you don't like and most importantly, don't buy a train for monetary reasons.... it's never a good thing.

ARNO

Toy trains should never be an investment item.  And I have no problem operating any of my older trains, including my prewar.  Even steaming up my late 20's Bassett Lowke mogul.  These are first and foremost toys and ment to be enjoyed.  I love seeing the new tinplate, helps stir interest in this facet of the hobby.  Mike

Mike,

did you ever solve the flaming cab syndrome in your mogul?

Roland

Gentlemen,

    I own the Lionel original Tin and the MTH Repro P2 Tin, we run our trains every Christmas season around the Christmas Tree, never worried about collecting or investment, it's part of our family tradition that has been passed down for generations now.  The only cost I worry about is paying for the O Gauge goodies that I want to add to our current layout.  The memories of my family are wrapped around our incredible Christmas's and our O Gauge Train layouts, especially my Tin Plate stuff.  Make a real investment and purchase a child his 1st O gauge train layout, you might create a Professional Engineer, who will send men into Space to touch the hand of God.  Now that is the kind of investment, important to our O gauge hobby and our country.

PCRR/Dave 

FYI: Prices for original very early tinplate are skyrocketing, that is 1900-1918 era tinplate.

Any early Lionel in most any condition is now selling for more than it ever has, whether that particular toy train has been reproduced or not. The "big boy" collectors want the originals. A lot these early collectors are not operators so much, and in fact do buy toy trains as an investment.

there is something special about reaching the century mark that more and more prewar pieces will achieve over the next few decades.  add to that, most of the cast iron and lithographed tinplate trains of this era will likely never be reproduced.

cheers...gary

Your comments address a prior misconception of supply and I don't disagree.  However, we also need to consider the current level of demand.

Without meaning to be indelicate, I think an equally big if not bigger reason for the drop in price is that there are a lot fewer of our forefathers around (i.e., demand has fallen and will continue to fall).

Steven J. Serenska

Hello Dave; "Pine Creek Railroad,"  Just wanted to thankyou for your many postings which I have enjoyed reading.  I particularly like your closing quote on your postings.  Its so true and I find it a good reminder of what is really important.  Peace and blessings, wayne walter

i'm pretty sure people like you are vastly underestimating the impact the internet has had on collecting.

in college, the local Burger King was giving out Warner Bros cartoon glasses with the purchase of a Pepsi (1972).  without too much trouble i managed to collect 8-10 different characters, but over the next few years of use/ breakage, i remember the day when i was just down to Bugs Bunny.

for about the next 10 - 12 years i occasionally dropped into some local antique shops and for a few $$ apiece, i managed to regain my complete set.

then came the internet/ eBay...  i still have my character glass collection it took me more than a decade to piece together, but just for laughs, i recently visited eBay and did a search,  what originally took me a dozen years of collecting can now be done online in a weekend.

before 1980 i had no idea Marx made tin lithographed trains or that Hafner even existed.  i never played with these trains when i was a kid, but as an adult they fascinate me.  and i'm almost sure i'm not unique in coming out of left field as a collector/ operator who has used the internet to obtain 99.9% of my collection.

maybe the internet has made more collections and attic finds available, but i believe there are even more people who have joined the ranks of collectors who likely wouldn't have if not for the internet.

cheers...gary

Good point Gary. One thing I have noticed in the Standard Gauge world, is there seem to be more people getting into it. Yes, there is a large population that is leaving us daily, but many of those collectors were of the hoarder mentality and not very open to sharing. Newer collectors/operators seem to want to share more than previous generations. I think the internet has had a lot to do with that as well.

Operation of all these trains is important, whether repro or original. In the earlier days of collecting, say the 1950's & 60's, people were careful about what they operated as there was not a large market for replacement parts and they were worried about wheel fatigue and such. So, many of the old timers just became vertical collectors because of that. The advent of replacement parts has helped bring trains back to the track and also launched the reproduction train market.

Collecting and operating are both important aspects of this hobby, but not as important as sharing.

ARNO

And a segment of us coming into Standard Gauge nowadays has lived through the rise-and-fall of 1980's/1990's O-Gauge "collecting".  Nearly EVERYTHING O-Gauge that was once valued dearly at premiums can be had today for pennies on the dollar... of course, due in large part, to a continuing treadmill of newer trains being offered year after year.

Point being... the mentality of watching formerly "prized" pieces now fetch ho-hum values today makes this group of enthusiasts much less inclined to care about highly prized pieces (or variations) in ANY part of this hobby.  I could be 100% wrong on this hunch.  But based on the small number of folks I've talked with about this subject, we feel the same.  While we appreciate the fact that some folks have enjoyed building huge museum-caliber collections of toy trains and their many variations over the years/decades, there's only a significantly small number of enthusiasts who are willing to pay premiums for "rare variations" in these collections.  And I don't see the size of that group increasing at all.  In fact, it's not even staying steady... It's declining.  Generally speaking, most new entrants don't care... or perhaps more accurately speaking, just aren't "in the hobby" to purely collect (at least not in the tradition sense of the word) but rather operate.  So huge collections and variations of similar locomotives and rolling stock have become much less relevant.

Admittedly, we're hearing two sides of the story here.  Namely, some folks who have no intention of paying premium prices for original tinplate trains... and then other folks saying demand and prices continue to be high for original Standard Gauge tinplate in excellent condition.   Could it be possible that we're simply developing very small niches of Standard Gauge interest in what was already very much a niche market to begin with?

David 

Myself and many others I'm sure have been slowly infecting others with the std gauge bug.

Steve

That would be accurate, Steve!

Yes. I still have no idea to start with and I can wait for now until my squares are built.

I'm basically into more modern tinplate.  I do have some old pieces, but I won't pay more for them than what I can get a modern reproduction for.

Has anyone here known of or has purchased a 200-series original car for more than $250?  I see these all the time at York.

At the next York show, make an observation of who is looking at what.  Are the younger people stopping at tables in the members halls to look at old tinplate, or are they in the Orange hall looking at new stuff?

Arno,

    I agree that the running of our trains is definitely important to our hobby, collecting has it's place also, each to his own.  However with the passing of our older generation the Internet has opened up a new phase in our hobby, the proof is most stores not participating on the Net eventually fail today.  The Net in reality, helps replace the fading away of our older generation, not completely however.   We still need to understand how important it is to our hobby, that young people get introduced and participate, for without new blood in our hobby it will fade way with our older generations.  The Baby Stroller thread and those people who do not want them in the isles, I see as a real big mistake, nothing could be more important to our hobby than developing a childs' interest, no matter how young.  

Waynew,

  Thanks much for your nice comment about my posts, I was taught to live by those words when I was a boy.  Character is the measure of a man.  The Supreme Architect instills in each of us, the ability to truly know right and wrong, no other man can do that for you.  Never worry about what other people think, always walk in the way of the Lord, for someday there will be only one set of foot prints in the sand, and they will not be yours.

PCRR/Dave

quote:

Yeah, but wasn't it so much more fun "hunting" for the items you needed at flea markets/antique shops/garage sales/auctions/train shows/swap meets?    Remember the days of going into a record store to see what they had?

Yes, it is for me. So I limit my collection purchases on Ebay, and do most of my purchasing elsewhere. I just got back from hitting a few Estate sales and garage sales this morning. Picked up a Postwar Lionel 1062 set with unmarked cars. No box, but the set is in nice shape.

quote:

Point being... the mentality of watching formerly "prized" pieces now fetch ho-hum values today makes this group of enthusiasts much less inclined to care about highly prized pieces (or variations) in ANY part of this hobby.  I could be 100% wrong on this hunch.  But based on the small number of folks I've talked with about this subject, we feel the same.  While we appreciate the fact that some folks have enjoyed building huge museum-caliber collections of toy trains and their many variations over the years/decades, there's only a significantly small number of enthusiasts who are willing to pay premiums for "rare variations" in these collections.  And I don't see the size of that group increasing at all.  In fact, it's not even staying steady... It's declining.  Generally speaking, most new entrants don't care... or perhaps more accurately speaking, just aren't "in the hobby" to purely collect (at least not in the tradition sense of the word) but rather operate.  So huge collections and variations of similar locomotives and rolling stock have become much less relevant.

Such things have never been a problem for me. I collect for my own amusement and interest. Not as an investment, and not to impress someone else.  I have always said that when prices fall, I will be able to buy more trains. People like me may be in the minority, but we are out there.

The subject of the post is: "Are Tinplate values holding up". My answer is: "Does it really matter?" There is no telling where prices will be in the future. IMHO, nobody should purchase trains with the expectation of them having  significant resale value.

PCRR/Dave, You're right, kids are important to the hobby. I feel that exposure is the most important part. Of late, the big push is to get kids involved... which is good. We all know kids are going to like all sorts of things and most have a short attention span. We can't expect kids to go gaga over trains for the extent of their childhood. more importantly, we need to expose them to the trains and in a few years when the mature they will go back and say, "man, I remember playing with trains.... " and then start in the hobby themselves. I know that happened to me. The problem with the recent generations of collectors, when the values began to elevate, the era of "don't touch" was born. There were many lost opportunities for kids to play trains because some thought they were too valuable. When actually the value should have been put into the children. Now, we are suffering from that and trying to catch up.

Expose your trains to the youth and we shall get some of them back... eventually.

ARNO

quote:

 The problem with the recent generations of collectors, when the values began to elevate, the era of "don't touch" was born. There were many lost opportunities for kids to play trains because some thought they were too valuable. When actually the value should have been put into the children. Now, we are suffering from that and trying to catch up.

I think this "problem" is grossly overstated. Every collector I know had plenty of trains for their kids to use. And their children knew the difference between the collectable trains and the runners.

Originally Posted by overlandflyer:

 

then came the internet/ eBay...  i still have my character glass collection it took me more than a decade to piece together, but just for laughs, i recently visited eBay and did a search,  what originally took me a dozen years of collecting can now be done online in a weekend.

 

 

Yeah, but wasn't it so much more fun "hunting" for the items you needed at flea markets/antique shops/garage sales/auctions/train shows/swap meets?    Remember the days of going into a record store to see what they had?

 

 

 

records?  ... what are those? 

yes it was fun collecting in those pre-web days.  many towns around me have an antique store district and i still like to roam around a real store when i get the chance.  i even see some tinplate occasionally, but it's typically either overpriced or overdistressed or both.

cheers...gary

Old trains will always remain old, there is a start and finish to them, you know what you are searching for, the missing treasure you know is out there and will hold a reasonable value, and at what condition you want them in, I've no doubt it will remain this way.

The new market is okay, beautiful well made and run models but the problem is if they starts to flood the market, much like Corgi and others did on the toy transport scene, it never ends. Most people treat these models like crystal, understandably for the price!! So down the road unlike now you will have no need to hunt out the mint train/running engine, they will be lots and lots out there.

Here lies the value answer.....

I buy old and new trains because I like em, I've reached a point in my life where I now am surrounded with things I like....value is always going to be a issue no matter what anyone will tell you.....buying them=fun......running them=fun......and selling them or passing them on=fun......we win all ways.

BINGO!

This has been a very interesting thread.  I didn't figure there would be such interesting and thoughtful responses.

Thanks

For every collector that passes on, there needs to be an equal number of new collectors or new money to absorb that supply of old trains that come into the train market.  If not, then the supply begins to outstrip the demand.  If a collector dies with a $100,000 train collection and those trains come onto the market, there needs to be 10 people with $10,000 each to absorb his collection without putting any of their collections into the market.  Just browse the auction websites, (not the bay), and see what some of this stuff is going for.

In addition, Lionel, MTH, etc are also making new releases of the old products, which further dilutes the demand for the originals.  Consider how many re-makes of the postwar N&W 746 engine have been made.

Also, the newer engines with all the electronics and features that are different from any post or prewar trains, are another drain on the demand for the older originals.

Since 1969 there have been ample substitutes available to satisfy the demand for many of the original postwar and prewar trains.   Postwar and prewar that are mint in the box or like new in the box will probably always have a demand from collectors and investors, but probably not like it was in the late 70s to mid 90s, IMHO.

It's best to buy what you enjoy without thoughts of investment, resale, or inheritance.  Play with them and take care of them.  Teach your kids and grandkids all about them, and how to take care of them. 

To me, there is nothing more picturesque, than watching a young person or a child handling a train as if were fine china.

really?...

where is the cast iron?

where is the lithographed tin?

even if anyone were to reproduce CI, good luck in getting approval to use Japan Black to finish them.

when you say 'ample' you are likely referring to Lionel repros.  Hafner, Hoge, Marx or O gauge Flyer?  if anything, ...limited.  anything clockwork?  not that i've seen.

you can have your State Sets and Blue Comets.  there are likely dozens of originals and hundreds of reproductions available any day.  i doubt if i will ever find or even see another Flyer Type XIII, "A.F. 9".  not mint or NIB, but to me and likely its next caretaker, it's priceless.

cheers...gary

I think ebay and sites like this have opened up the whole early era of toy trains more than the TCA and shows of the past.  I dont know if I would call older mentality collectors as hoarders, but it seems that the hobby in general wasnt something you talked about outside of a show or fellow collectors.  It was almost frowned on for an adult male to still "play" with toy trains.  This isn't the case now so much.  I agree that "operator" grade prewar of any major brand is more affordable than ever. I picked up a super clean 225e, if it had a box I would have called it collector quality and even without a box it would have been 500 bucks a few years ago, got it for under $250 with its diecast tender.  Same for Std gauge, pieces that are not boxed and near mint are of average to below average price and still may not sell for long periods.  I have seen this and been told this by dealers selling such trains.  Now York may be the exception but I have never made the trip there.  But I do attend many of the major midwest shows like the Dupage Co fair ground show in IL, most shows in Indiana and just attended the huge Berea, OH show.  Prices were excellent, ie low and affordable for me.  For years anything prewar was out of reach due to my limited income.  But I can get operator grade late prewar and some Std gauge for what I was buying common postwar for a few years ago.   Now I am not going after a 400e or scale hudson, but a nice little 8e and some track, my 225e with a freight consist to pull, vintage type T transformer to restore and once my Christmas bonus arrives, something for my 8e to pull.  Yes I could get the reproductions, but they lack the "story", the "history", an original has.  Then you have the whole "made in China" thing.  Some stuff like clockwork and cast iron will probably not be reproduced, but camp out on ebay, post wanted ads in places like this or craigslist will net you trains to buy.     Mike

Anything that makes this hobby cheaper makes me happier