Total no. model train enthusiasts in the USA.

It's tough to estimate numbers but I'm sure there's more people out there than we'll ever know.  Just in my volunteer fire department I belong to we have 1 more O Gauge train runner who doesn't follow any forums, 1 HO Gauge runner, & 1 other member who does both HO Gauge & Garden Scale Train sizes. Who knows if there's any that don't tell that they're into trains.  They're just the 4 of us that talk about them in the open but it seems that a certain few always stand dclose to listen but when asked they say "no I don't have trains. " Who knows?

Well Dennis, it's acknowledged that HO and N scale are both individually bigger than the total number of the 3-rail 0 gauge market. So I would guess 150,000 is being generous.

 

One of the Lionel executives commented there are a few thousand very serious scale modelers and several million people who buy a set for under the Christmas tree, and then everyone else in between.

 

If this OGR forum is the biggest 3-rail forum on the internet (and consider there are forums for 2-rail 0, narrow gauge and S gauge here), there are currently 16,425 members here - obviously not all active but still registered.

 

Hardly scientific, but I would guess 150,000 is a high number.

My guess is the estimates of half million model train hobbyists and the revenue generated at $ 450 million is low. Lionel alone has a big chunk of annual revenues and when you look at the HO market, they are a relatively small player.

Curious as to how you did that, what basis was used to count bodies, and got a number.

There are a lot of folks out there that are probably below the radar.

There are 316,000,000 people in the USA, divided by 500,000 model train enthusiasts= 1 out of 632 people are into model trains. 

And 316,000,000 divided by 150,000 in O gauge =

1 out of 2106 are into O gauge trains.

 That is if my goes intos are right?

Hey, don't forget about the 5 people in S!

 

Rusty

The information was taken from an article in the New York Times done a few years back and I did a best guess on how it breaks down. Most marking data is just an estimate but if you apply laz1957's logic it becomes believable. I also believe your statement that a lot of train enthusiasts fall under the radar. When my in-laws passed on, they left an old 1930's train set that is now in the possession of my wife's sister. It now sits on a shelf in their family room. With no other interest in trains as a hobby, there must be many more people in the same boat. Do they count??  Perhaps only 5% of the people that own model trains are active in the hobby.  

quote:

Do they count?? 

 

No.

No idea - depends on your definition of "model train enthusiasts" and "active".  There are guys with closets full of brass w/o layouts, and then there are guys with layouts that are total lone wolf modelers, not on the internet and totally private and we only find out about them when their estate comes up for sale.  I work with my local NMRA Div. liquidating estates.  Last couple we did virtually no one knew the layouts or collections even existed.  Then there are folks like you describe - not sure I'd apply the word "enthusiasts" there - seems more like a familial keepsake action.

I think all of that is roughly about right.  I suppose it depends how you define model train enthusiast.  One can interpret it many different ways.  A lot of people have a toy train to put under the tree, or in a box in junior's closet.  Doesn't make them "enthusiasts" in my way of thinking.  

 

But if we go with 1 in around 2100 as computed above, that would mean about 500 O-gauge enthusiasts in the Raleigh-Durham-chapel Hill area where I live (total extended-area population around here about 1 million).  That strikes me as certainly in the ballpark, with a few big layouts (six figure cost at least) at the top, a lot like me in the middle, and several hundred smaller layouts or carpet setups around town.  

 

I think the $450,000,000 figure is about right.  I imagine only 1/4 or a bit less of that is O-gauge - I know 1/4 of model train enthusiasts aren't

t into O, but it costs a bit more per loco, etc., than N and HO, so . . . . I'm under the impressive the numbers work out to be about $60M for Lionel, $30-$40M for MTH, $20M for everyone else, and most.  I won't go into why and where I got those numbers.  I have no way of knowing if they are accurate, they are just what I think.  

 

I think about one in five people are interested in model trains and enjoy hearing about it, and that about one in ten really don't want to hear about it and think it is silly.

Interesting. I saw some figures - I presume that they were accurate - a few years ago,

and the 500,000 rings a bell. That is a tiny number, really, for a nation of 320M.

I wish that I could lay my hands on the figures; one thing that I do recall is the noticeably 

larger numbers - actual numbers, not just percentages - of RR types in GB and Germany.

The RR hobby - model and rail fan - is larger in those two nations than here, and there may be others. 

 

Too bad.

 

I think there are plenty of model railroaders and potential model railroaders out there...as many or more than ever before, when based on a percentage of the total US population.

 

Most of the "We are dying out!" crowd is the same sky is falling bunch that gripes about every other aspect of 21st century life.

 

As bob2 would say, my opinion.

 

Jeff C

I think the $450 million number is probably low.  If I recall correctly, Lionel alone is probably $100 million or so, based upon the bankruptcy filings from years ago.  MTH is at least half that, probably, so O gauge alone is probably $150 million or more.

I would say that there are far fewer model train enthusiasts than in the 1950's but I would also say that todays model train collector or operator spends far more that what families did back then.  When I was a boy all of my friends had Lionel trains. We were lucky if we had more than one set with 7 or 8 cars, two accessories and a single engine. Today the average person owning model trains has many times more.

I would agree that there are closet collectors that keep their hobby to themselves. The profound NMRA "rivet counter" scale guys seem to be notorious for this. How do we measure the participation of those who are off the radar?

Overall trains are still a significant hobby but I believe that those who join it are largely awakening to relive their childhood years. The hobby may be contracting a bit but still big enough to keep us all happy for many years to come.

The answer is:

42

I've always used 1% as the number. That would put it just north of 3 million, six times what you've come up with. This would make more sense given the dollar volume the manufacturers are generating. This would include the more casual participants, and not just us hard core crazies.

Years ago I remember reading that o gauge was a 100 million $$$ market and MTH passed Lionel in total sales. Since that was published MTH has started the HO, S, #1 gauge, Lionel Timplate & O European lineups...so for total overall sales I'd say that MTH is still in the lead.

"MTH passed Lionel in total sales."

 

That was in the 1990s.  Things went downhill from there.  During the bankruptcy filing/lawsuit, the estimated sales numbers for each company were mentioned and they were the reverse of the earlier reports.  Since each company is privately held, the actual numbers are not available.

Darn You, I was just getting ready to type that

Doesn't make them enthusiasts any more than owning a bicycle makes a kid a biking enthusiast.

Number one in total electric train sales would be Kader Industries but that would be world wide.

 

Correct, but looks a bit small like that, 101010 ....What was the question?... 

Sales went downhill for MTH only or for both of them?  Any idea what happened?  Just curious.  Thank you.

That was not my number. That came from the toy manufactures marketing report that was referenced by the NY Times a few years back. If you believe it incorrect and that 1% of the USA population (3+ million people)  are model train hobbyists, I sure hope that your number is right.  

 

By December13, 2014, Lionel had sold out of every train item in stock @ Macy's and F.A.O. Schwarz. Somebody is out there buying and adding nicely to the positive numbers.

 

Also, new members join the fold all the time, I would imagine, but we may not necessarily hear from or about them, huh.

FrankM

"What do you get if you multiply six by nine?"

 

Which of course explains many things about the universe...

I would say there are three. Don

I grok these one liners. You guys are spoiling the grok out of me as of late.

Maybe the Editors/owners of this good Magazine could shed some light on this discussion.

Dennis, I understand that you didn't make up that number. You were just the original poster. 

 

I came up with the 1% as part of my business plan for enterTRAINment at Mall of America. I wasn't selling trains, I was just trying to gauge the level of interest. What we discovered was that interest was more like 2%, but that was influenced by advertising and other factors. So if we cut that in half, we're back to 1%. 

 

Another thing that needs to be factored in is secondary market sales. These numbers don't show up in in manufacturer reports. Those products were off the books years before, but we all buy used stuff. Prime example pre and post war collectors. Lionel's bottom line never sees them.

I'd say you would be pretty good at guessing how many beans are in the big jar.

 

Rick

I would say that's pretty accurate.  Matt

 

I'll go out on a limb and say it's more than three but less than the world population.

 

"I've always used 1% as the number. That would put it just north of 3 million,"

 

   I'd have to agree since more than 1% of the people I meet are model railroaders in some form. I first thought about this in 5th grade when I found that the father of a girl in my class had an HO layout at their house( 1 out of 30 kids=3%roughly). Then in the 7th grade a teacher saw me drawing a train and commented that her adult son was a model railroader( 3% again), then at 12 years old the conductor of the local SP crew was a OO scale operator( 1 out of maybe 30 railroaders I talked to around the railroad=3% again) At my last job one other guy was an HO scale modeler out of a core of 10 long time employees( 2 out of 10 =20%) When my son got married I found out my daughter -in-law's brother was an N scaler( too small a sample)  .......DaveB

 Seacoast, Not sure if your mad, or confused. Sorry if you feel either.

 On the confused end?-There are a string of obscure references bleeding over from other recent, and past threads. A search engine will put most sources in the top half dozen choices including grok a word undefinable fully as I haven't read the R,Heinlen book in many years. But "at one with" isn't wrong, hate isn't wrong, love isn't wrong etc.. They all vary from comedy to sci-fi, big screen to books.

 

A little fun waiting an the serious stuff, that's me, sorry   

Oh.... you want input, not editing duh.

 

Adriatic I can tell your a man of insight & wisdom and great conjecture. Similiar to trying to win a debate with a women. Ill take my guess and say how many beans in that pot. Dont worry,The nurse will arrive soon with your medication.

 

Are you counting narrow gauge?

Minus 1 O Gauge, plus 1 narrow gauge.

Although, being so chubby, perhaps I should count as 1.5   

 

Narrowiron Scher