Has anyone else noticed that the tin plate/prewar eBay's prices going up.

over the next few decades, many prewar trains will hit the 100 year old milestone and there's something a bit special about a piece that survives the century mark.

for the repro crowd, don't fret... your time is only about four score and seven years away.

cheers...gary

There are still good values to be found around the outer edges, but as usual, sellers THINK their items are worth their weight in gold. That kid jeffnmanda is a perfect example. He stumbled across some really good Hoge, Flyer, Unique Art, Marx stuff but lists it at ridiculous BIN prices for the first few weeks before he comes down to semi-earth (and usually ends up selling it privately after auction has been removed for "inaccuaracy")

Selling prices on a large national auction site are a very good barometer of actual value. I have noticed seasonal variation in prices. This cuts both ways with perceived over, and under valued items.

Jim O'C posted:

... but lists it at ridiculous BIN prices for the first few weeks before he comes down to semi-earth (and usually ends up selling it privately after auction has been removed for "inaccuracy")

 i really can't blame anyone for this strategy.  maybe there is a deep pocket buyer out there who may not want to bother with the <100% chance of a regular auction.  i have also seen the strategy of putting a "make an offer" in concert with a ridiculously high BIN price.  perhaps buyers offering 10% off will assume they are getting a good deal.

i'm sure the people who know the value of toy trains (aside from here) are a very small minority of the population.

cheers...gary

I thought I was the only one that was noticing it yes they have gone drastically up I'm sorry but I'm not going to pay 180 - $200 for a 500 or 200 series boxcar I've had a 500 series 217 caboose on there for 2 or 3 weeks at $49 and have not had any takers so I'm not sure if the market is increasing or decreasing.

Joeg

I've been involved in collectibles for a very long time. I have seen rises an falls in all the categories from full size cars to Japanese tin toys. The advent of eBay was a great equalizer... an earthquake in the collecting field because it opened up the world market to every grandma in Peoria and really reduced the chokehold on many genres that were held by select dealers. That being said, after prices settled out and the real markets of the true supply settled in, certain collectibles established a new baseline. Some nearly disappeared or had their values diminished due to a flood of product (Hess Trucks), and some started to climb again in popularity and then price. My 'third eye' tells me that Standard Gauge and tinplate have not yet seen their highest prices and that it will continue to go up in both popularity and price. (Better condition and rare-item popularity and price has been heightened in the post-ebay years, for sure leaving the lesser quality to flounder a bit.)  Why is Standard Gauge and Tinplate going up? Because it's freaking awesome, that's why.

Just a thought (or two) here: first, using Buy it Now sometimes brings a higher price than auction if the item is good or 'dear' as my dad used to say. A willing buyer will just press the button and bam, it's bought. The car auction guys use the phrase' bought right', which means somewhere near the top of market price, not cheaply.

Second, ebay prices tend to be seasonal, there is much less interest in the summer, and then it picks up in the fall. I used to do a little 'arbitrage' and buy stuff cheap in the summer, and resell it closer to the holidays, usually about 30% higher.

Unless it's something relatively rare and in EXC - LN condition, prices tend to vary greatly. The really good stuff always has eyes on it and will go for good money.  And in recent years the market has split in two directions: LN/boxed vintage stuff going through the roof, VG or lower dropping like a rock. And anything past 1970 is a real crap shoot, mostly on a descending spiral from it's original price.

Jim

Dreyfuss Hudson posted:

...

My 'third eye' tells me that Standard Gauge and tinplate have not yet seen their highest prices and that it will continue to go up in both popularity and price. (Better condition and rare-item popularity and price has been heightened in the post-ebay years, for sure leaving the lesser quality to flounder a bit.)  Why is Standard Gauge and Tinplate going up? Because it's freaking awesome, that's why. 

Tinplate most certainly has a charm of its own -- especially Standard Gauge.  But I can honestly say that my interest in it is strictly MTH's newest offerings.  All the original pre-war stuff -- and the associated collectors market that goes with it -- isn't even on my radar screen.  It's a road I just don't travel... almost as if it were non-existent.  

For me, the allure of Standard Gauge tinplate trains is their solid toylike charm -- which ironically  is in complete contrast to the direction O-Gauge trains has taken in recent years towards scale realism.  With tinplate trains, there's just enough "suggested realism" to what is admittedly a toy, and then our brain does the rest to transport us to the world into which we want to escape.  But for me, the trains need to be shiny and new with today's modern features (like sounds, smoke, and command-control).  No nicks, scratches, squeaks, or rust -- no matter what the age.  

I don't find myself drawn to owning a 75 or 100 year-old train that's been poorly maintained.  And even if it did look spectacular, I just have no interest in the whole "collector scene" and the bidding wars that go with it.  I travelled that road briefly in the 1980's, when we were all told O-Gauge trains would hold their value.  And those trains were even marketed as "hot" collectable rarities specifically to convince buyers the trains would hold their value over time.    No need to revisit that scene again in Standard Gauge.  I guess I more of an operator at heart.

So you won't see me helping to drive up the prices of pre-war tinplate to build a collection -- especially when MTH is pumping out some beatiful tinplate stuff these days. 

David

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

Dreyfuss Hudson posted:

...

My 'third eye' tells me that Standard Gauge and tinplate have not yet seen their highest prices and that it will continue to go up in both popularity and price. (Better condition and rare-item popularity and price has been heightened in the post-ebay years, for sure leaving the lesser quality to flounder a bit.)  Why is Standard Gauge and Tinplate going up? Because it's freaking awesome, that's why. 

Tinplate most certainly has a charm of its own -- especially Standard Gauge.  But I can honestly say that my interest in it is strictly MTH's newest offerings.  All the original pre-war stuff -- and the associated collectors market that goes with it -- isn't even on my radar screen.  It's a road I just don't travel... almost as if it were non-existent.  

For me, the allure of Standard Gauge tinplate trains is their solid toylike charm -- which ironically  is in complete contrast to the direction O-Gauge trains has taken in recent years towards scale realism.  With tinplate trains, there's just enough "suggested realism" to what is admittedly a toy, and then our brain does the rest to transport us to the world into which we want to escape.  But for me, the trains need to be shiny and new with today's modern features (like sounds, smoke, and command-control).  No nicks, scratches, squeaks, or rust -- no matter what the age.  

I don't find myself drawn to owning a 75 or 100 year-old train that's been poorly maintained.  And even if it did look spectacular, I just have no interest in the whole "collector scene" and the bidding wars that go with it.  I travelled that road briefly in the 1980's, when we were all told O-Gauge trains would hold their value.  And those trains were even marketed as "hot" collectable rarities specifically to convince buyers the trains would hold their value over time.    No need to revisit that scene again in Standard Gauge.  I guess I more of an operator at heart.

So you won't see me helping to drive up the prices of pre-war tinplate to build a collection -- especially when MTH is pumping out some beatiful tinplate stuff these days. 

David

 

I understand all opinions on any gauge.  It's a big tent.

I model ultra 3rs cars and engines, detailing and the like, but what has attracted me to the Prewar SG is the design, the fact that it has no plastic, the incredible sound, heft, and yes even ozone smell of the old simple technology.  The reason I enjoy the original period stuff (yes it has to be in good shape for me too) is the miracle quotient. That is; a 90 year old piece of machinery doing what it's supposed to do, that by all rights should've been trashed 70 years ago. It's a big part of the vibe.

There's nothing like taking a beat up tinplate loco from the 1920's, cleaning it up, lube, maybe replace the 3rd rail pickup and brushes and have it come to life, probably for the first time in 80 years .  

And you can still do that with this stuff.  There's someone out there making those parts. Think the actuators and electronics for your new MTH loco will be available in 20?

Jim Waterman posted:

There's nothing like taking a beat up tinplate loco from the 1920's, cleaning it up, lube, maybe replace the 3rd rail pickup and brushes and have it come to life, probably for the first time in 80 years .  

And you can still do that with this stuff.  There's someone out there making those parts. Think the actuators and electronics for your new MTH loco will be available in 20?

 

 

I try not to overspend on tinplate on eBay.  I like shiny stuff too, but I will pay less and restore what I need to.  I have some old engines, and I also buy the new stuff.  

I am pretty sure I will be able to find a way to get an engine running in 20 years even if the electronics are not available.  Two options would be: upgrade it to the latest electronics; or strip out the blown electronics and create a simple conventional circuit to run the motor.  Just as there is a market for replacement parts today, there will be options in the future.  

One thing to note, MTH has done a nice job with the new engines.  The body and frame on the conventional and the PS2/3 are the same.  They were able to put the electronics into the same form-factor as the conventional motor.  It should be easy to swap an electronic equipped motor with an original conventional from a salvage project if needed.

Anyway, good thread and perspectives!

George

I still run whatever tinplate looks good to me and my wallet, even if that means slightly dented and scratched Marx, Ives, and Lionel cars with rebuilt Marx, Lionel,and AF engines.

Trainlover160 posted:

I thought I was the only one that was noticing it yes they have gone drastically up I'm sorry but I'm not going to pay 180 - $200 for a 500 or 200 series boxcar I've had a 500 series 217 caboose on there for 2 or 3 weeks at $49 and have not had any takers so I'm not sure if the market is increasing or decreasing.

Joeg

I think it depends on the seller and the specific piece.  I have seen some very rare items hit eBay.  There was a brown 800 series cattle car that ended up going for just under $400.  Rumor is that there are only 10 of those in existence.  The problem I have is how do you know it was original?  It is too easy to fake today.  MTH will make an 800 series car and sell it for $79 new.  Unless you are a deep pocket collector, it is best to balance between older, less collectible items and new tinplate.

Also, I think you will find more reasonably priced items hitting the market between now and December when sellers start to put more items on eBay to thin their inventory and make their year-end numbers.

George

George S posted:

Trainlover160 posted:

I thought I was the only one that was noticing it yes they have gone drastically up I'm sorry but I'm not going to pay 180 - $200 for a 500 or 200 series boxcar I've had a 500 series 217 caboose on there for 2 or 3 weeks at $49 and have not had any takers so I'm not sure if the market is increasing or decreasing.

Joeg

I think it depends on the seller and the specific piece.  I have seen some very rare items hit eBay.  There was a brown 800 series cattle car that ended up going for just under $400.  Rumor is that there are only 10 of those in existence.  The problem I have is how do you know it was original?  It is too easy to fake today.  MTH will make an 800 series car and sell it for $79 new.  Unless you are a deep pocket collector, it is best to balance between older, less collectible items and new tinplate.

Also, I think you will find more reasonably priced items hitting the market between now and December when sellers start to put more items on eBay to thin their inventory and make their year-end numbers.

George

Hope so, so far eBay's prices are still up and going up.
A lot of desperate people (newbie's looking at low their feedback), must be thinking that the items are rare.
Also the postage has increases for a single car asking $19.00 and up for the postage.
Buy it now, not for those prices. I do like the ones where you make a offer, lucked out on a couple.
Still people are buying and keeping the hobby alive along with the parts dealers, this is good!

RonH posted:

Hope so, so far eBay's prices are still up and going up. lot of desperate people (newbie's looking at low their feedback), must be thinking that the items are rare.
Also the postage has increases for a single car asking $19.00 and up for the postage.
Buy it now, not for those prices. I do like the ones where you make a offer, lucked out on a couple.
Still people are buying and keeping the hobby alive along with the parts dealers, this is good!

The USPS price increase hit earlier this year.  It was a good 15% to 20%.  However, $19 is too much unless it is a very large and heavy item.

George

I tend to feel that people are asking more, more bye it now and many fewer auctions of the beautiful used junk that I crave........

Its not just Tin Plate - I see modern O items going up in price as well. Certain key items are fetching much larger prices than I expected... 

Ebay is now taking a percentage of the shipping too. To me, it's nonsense. The shipping is way over-inflated because sellers are making up for the nutso fees. When I sell my stuff, I always refund any overage the buyer will pay for the shipping. I don't charge for materials either. No 'handling fees' either. 

I've passed on many items because of the out-of-line shipping charges.

I too have passed on items due to fees. $26 to ship an 0-27 car is a little much. However I have contacted sellers who have drastically dropped their shipping charges not knowing that ebay bumped it up so much. All pricing on all goods on the bay have gone up. however if one is persistent in looking and patient there  are still deals to be had.

JoeG

overlandflyer posted:

over the next few decades, many prewar trains will hit the 100 year old milestone and there's something a bit special about a piece that survives the century mark.

for the repro crowd, don't fret... your time is only about four score and seven years away.

cheers...gary

Gary (and others), Nicely said. I've been fortunate that I haven't needed to buy much lately on eBay, but in the last year I had 4 tinplate-related purchases. I bought a box of tubular 027 track (less than $1 per piece seemed reasonable compared to some shows I've seen) with free shipping and three #69 crossing signals for $30 (can't remember the shipping but I think it was reasonable). My favorite purchase...I bought a beaten up prewar steam switcher for $250 (not that I needed another one). Finally, I bought 25-30 steam switcher marker light posts for around $28...I was happy with all four purchases. All four were not bought in the peak Christmas holiday season and I think that helped. 

DREYFUSS HUDSON also said:

 Why is Standard Gauge and Tinplate going up? Because it's freaking awesome, that's why.

Yes, tinplate is pretty awesome, but why? For me, it represents quality German clock-like craftsmanship when things were manufactured and manufactured well in the USA. I've said this before that many of my locomotives are around 77 years old... properly maintained they can easily make another 77 to 100 years. 

I admit that by far, I am not the biggest eBay purchaser, but I've done pretty well over the last 20 years or so. I still think it can be a great resource to many of us for vintage tinplate equipment and/or parts.

My opinion is that there are lots of tinplate items up for sale (some bargains, some not so much) at any time on eBay and like anything in life, Caveat Emptor (buyer beware). 

Tom 

The USPS price increase hit earlier this year.  It was a good 15% to 20%.

They also eliminated the discount for purchasing the shipping fees online.
Shipping costs for individuals has become crazy.
Businesses get a substantial discount from companies like United Parcel and FedEx. It's likely that the Post Office give a discount too, otherwise they would not be competitive.

We have software that calculates the best shipping price. Most times it's USPS, then Fedex and then UPS. UPS just announced another increase Jan 1st.