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So this is a question I could argue many ways, but figured I would ask what is typical practice for O gaugers.  

 

The local train shop has a train I have been eyeing, however I cannot bring myself to pay full price for a train that is 5 years old that has been on the display case for some time.  It is a PS2 MTH train set with passenger cars.  Granted, the value of an object is in the eye of the beholder, but I have to ask "At what point in a O gauge train's life is it really is no longer worth paying retail due to its actual value?"

 

This question is not about the LHS owner practice or needing to recoup costs...  It is really about value of a older train that is on the shelf and when it is not really worth retail any more.

 

What is your opinion?

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Kinda worth what you are willing to pay. I buy a lot of used items as I can't or am unable to pay full retail when the item was new. Add to it I run conventional and thus there is LOTS of good buys out there. If it's not worth it to you....it's not worth it.

 

I did pay big money (for me) for a scale PRR T1 loco but it is my number one favorite loco of all time....and even what I paid was half of current new scale loco from MTH or Lionel......but it was well worth it to me.

First, please clarify your use of terminology: "Do you distinguish between 'retail & list price?"  (No father paid list price for a toy train 60 yrs ago, so why would anyone today?)

 

Second, there are known formulas for depreciation in the hobby, (be it PW or modern circuit board dependent off shore production).

 

Third, there are always exceptions  (often expressly planned by marketing, which are intended for buzz and to encourage preordering).

 

And finally, supply vs demand anyone? (In the price of gold, a piece of sovereign debt,  a share of GOOG, a pound of mutton, or some beguiling toy train in the eye of a beholder.)

Last edited by Between A&B

....This question is not about the LHS owner practice or needing to recoup costs...  It is really about value of a older train that is on the shelf and when it is not really worth retail any more.

There are countless toy trains out there that, for one reason or another, are worth more than retail. If it wasn't for postwar items exceeding original retail in the
70's, 80's, and 90's there would be no hobby today as we know it now. So the question really is about the seller - considering it is a modern item and the economy is poor - what's his game? Waiting for a sucker off the street or just making his shelf look good? I would move on to another source for the set if you want it badly enough.

Please list the "known formulas for depreciation in the hobby" which you've alluded to in this post. Myself as well as I'm sure countless others don't know them but would appreciate having them not only to help evaluate purchases but also to "value" our collections when inventorying our trains.
Thank you.
KennOriginally Posted by Between A&B:

First, please clarify your use of terminology: "Do you distinguish between 'retail & list price?"  (No father paid list price for a toy train 60 yrs ago, so why would anyone today?)

 

Second, there are known formulas for depreciation in the hobby, (be it PW or modern circuit board dependent off shore production).

 

Third, there are always exceptions  (often expressly planned by marketing, which are intended for buzz and to encourage preordering).

 

And finally, supply vs demand anyone? (In the price of gold, a piece of sovereign debt,  a share of GOOG, a pound of mutton, or some beguiling toy train in the eye of a beholder.)

 

I believe supply is the key factor. Some trains(sets) produced turn out to desirable for any number of reasons. You can't buy them any longer, finding one is somewhat difficult. So, how do you value something like that? The dealer will know it's a nice train, you know it's a nice train. I think you'll pay what he wants for that item.

 

While valuation theories and discussions sound logical, they really don't mean anything. So, as previously discussed here and in other posts, the price will be what he wants to sell it at, period.

Originally Posted by Mr.Bill:
At what point in a O gauge train's life is it really is no longer worth paying retail due to its actual value?"

 

Simple:  It's worth paying retail, or even more than retail, if there's just one buyer out there who wants it. 

 

Time-on-shelf really has little to do with it.  If the seller determines the item is worth full retail or more, he or she can certainly keep it available for as long as necessary.  In some cases, trains do actually become worth more over time, particularly if it is a scarce and highly sought-after item.

It is ALL about one thing and one thing only.  What is the item WORTH to you the buyer, that is all it is about, period.  Make the dealer your BEST offer based on the worth to you.  If it is taken great, if not walk way and do not look back.

 

Most items I have bought at discount.  But there has been a couple steam engines I really wanted when I wanted them.  A semi-local deal notorious for his pricing had them at $100.00 over list.  I took them home with no regrets.  But, you can best believe most of my 120 plus engine roster was procured elsewhere at discounts.  So I got what I wanted when, the dealer made a few hundred extra dollars and also lost many thousands since the boat load of my business went elsewhere.

 

All parties are happy!

Cash offers only work in face to face private party deals. And most people expect cash anyway. Use your credit card. That way you have some protection and leverage if it is DOA out of the box. Warranty does not matter. It is only really good for manufacturing defects anyway. Anything and everything is negotiable in this day and age. And value is relative. It is worth somewhere between what the sellers thinks he can get and what you are willing to pay. And worth less after the deal is done and even less if you run it and derail it a few times. I only buy what I want and will " overpay" if I want it bad enough. And never buy a "deal" unless I want it. Then " bonus". If you are worried about overpaying than you probably should either take a course in negotiating or not buy it at all. Paying a little too much does not devalue the pleasure that I get from this hobby. But I am not a " collector" but an " accumilator". And my " collection" is just one of the end results of being a train hobbyist. Fred

There is no one answer to this questions as others have indicated.  It is worth noting that prices have risen in the last five years by a noticeable amount, so "full list price" of the item is probably considerably less than it would be if new.  Against this, this is a PS2 loco you are talking about and PS3 is already out there, so it is slightly not current as to technology.

 

Another factor to keep in mind is the "used" aspect - is it really used or just five years old sitting on the shelf but never run?  That would be very important to me.) and the fact that it has no warranty.  Add all this up, and if it was a loco I really wanted, I'd pay about 70% of current list for newer versions of it (or what I think newer versions would cost).  Tops, unless it is a model that I know commands high prices because of its rarity.

In my opinion, the battery will need replacement, and it may be that the PS2 boards are obsolete. Zero time replacement electronics for PS2 9V and 5V are not readily available. MTH gets over $300 to convert to PS2 3V in the event that the electronics fail.

 

Considering the risk you will be taking with the electronics, a markdown of 30% off retail is not unreasonable.

Originally Posted by Lee Willis:

There is no one answer to this questions as others have indicated.  It is worth noting that prices have risen in the last five years by a noticeable amount, so "full list price" of the item is probably considerably less than it would be if new.  Against this, this is a PS2 loco you are talking about and PS3 is already out there, so it is slightly not current as to technology.

 

Another factor to keep in mind is the "used" aspect - is it really used or just five years old sitting on the shelf but never run?  ... and the fact that it has no warranty.  Add all this up, and if it was a loco I really wanted, I'd pay about 70% of current list for newer versions of it (or what I think newer versions would cost)...

As stated by Mr. Willis, Mr. Ogage & others the depreciation rates of O gauge (toy) trains are well known to market savvy in the hobby (be it PS2, PS1, Fundementions (circa 1970's) or PW).

 

Mr. Willis is further hinting at an even more fundamental relationship which has become known to regular readers of this forum. For the "curious" I'm referring to the not so curious relationship between Federal Reserve monetary policy (aka 'quantitative easing) and the supply/demand picture of discretionary items such as toy trains (or any of the other vehicles I have already mentioned in my previous post).

 

So is "today 2007 all over again or not"? If it is then 2008/2009 is just a few months around the corner! ...

_____________________________________________________________________

And BTW: if this set is still on  display at the dealer's asking price, then you are clearly not the only potential buyer that is questioning the dealer's valuation. That is fundamental open marketplace dynamics.

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