is this hobby growing or dying?

What's to worry? It's just chugging along.

Bnsftrains,

Let me see now...I've been active in this hobby since December 1947. This hobby has always gone through cycles. I've always been one to stay on the outside looking in. I never had any thoughts about where this hobby was headed. Granted the 1980's era will never return. We will all still be around as long as the good Lord allows.

God Bless,

"Pappy"

(Edit: the two above replies were posted while I was composing this)

Youth interest? Not really. There are of course exceptions that get in during their youth and manage to stay in throughout their teen years (I was one of 'em). There are more of them in the smaller scales, mostly for economic reasons. You might see a small bump of interest as the kids who were exposed to model railroading during it's late '80s-1990's revival enter middle age, but that's about it.

This particular corner of the hobby (meaning O-Gauge) seems to be something that middle-agers fall into or return to after a teen/young adult-induced hiatus, again usually due to space and economic reasons. 

Any kind of youth renaissance in model railroading would only come after railroads themselves become a highly visible part of the general public's world, which in the contxt of the way they were in the mid-20th century, is highly unlikely.

The only other possibility would be places where light rail and commuter rail are making big inroads (which is why I often agitate for light-rail trains as the next "growth opportunity" in O-Gauge after subways), but that wouldn't be the "traditional" kind of railroading most of us established in the hobby are accustomed to.

---PCJ

Sad to say, but ALL hobbies are dying, at least in the classic 1950's sense of the term. Hobbies are about time, money and interest. For the most part, this generation has none of those things.

This subject has been beat to death. Allan Miller wrote a nice article on this last issue or the one previously.

This Hobby is actually growing, as You see The Senior Kids Playing with their VL Big Boys, and their Legacy Controlled Locomotives and Diesels!!  This Hobby has Gone Global and guess what, You are seeing it here on the OGR FORUM...Look at what

Technology has done, Its brought us all closer together!!! Merry Christmas

Spence is right about this topic having been beaten to death, and I thought about not posting, but decided to share this.

Most of the stuff I read, and many of my own observations are bearish.  However, I just visited Mr. Muffin's Trains (near Indianapolis).  You wouldn't believe the number of children and their parents who enjoy the trains and walk out with a starter set.  Steve Nelson built an excellent layout, made it accessible to the public, and he and Liz are enthusiastic ambassadors for the hobby.  I'm beginning to believe that there might be a future for trains after all.  See Toy Train Revue #4.

Spence hit the nail on the head.  Being a nubee I suggest you do two things in the future:

1.  Use the OGR forum search tab to get tons of answers to your questions before you post a subject which has already been discussed in full.

2.  Being rather new to the forum you might come up with questions which might help you in the hobby like layout construction, etc.

Steve, Lady and Tex

I considered myself to be on the younger side in this hobby at 26 years old. I Have always loved trains, Ive never took pics of a train or chased one, but since knee high I would walk down to the tracks and watch trains (still do if I got the time). Naturally as a young boy I wanted be the engineer on those trains I watched and knew the next best thing was a lionel train set. So christmas of 1994 i got a chessie system lionel train set. I ran the heck out of that thing and had it many years but I was limited to what I could do simply because of limited space, but I would always look in the catalogs and dream of these big layouts. In my later teen years (2004-2008) found myself occupied with other interest, and trains kinda took a place on the back shelf. Then a few years ago I'm on youtube and I see this erics train episode in my suggestion box and I clicked it. He was reviewing the lionel ns heritage es44ac c.o.g. And the spark ignited my train brain again. I was blown away with all the features and the detail on these newer tooled modern locos. I had to get my own. And now after a long days work I can be found in my outbuilding running a train or two. And having said all that i think this hobby is like any other hobby, sport, activity, etc. . With the right people sharing ideas, and the right tools to innovate the hobby, advertise new products and features, the possibilities are endless.

If I was the only one running O scale trains....I'd not care. The fact there are plenty of others is a plus. But I can't worry about how 'popular' O is.....or any hobby. Go to a car show where Hot rods, muscle and Pony cars are featured.......a bunch of old guys again. We have the time, money and desire for a hobby.

I think this subject comes up so much because a large number of people want to always put a monetary value on everything these days. it seems at times that a large number of people are interested about the future so they can figure out how much money they can make off of it and want more new people to make more money.

To place a price on something that brings your pleasure and enjoyment immediately devalues it and changes it forever.

I refuse to discuss how much I have spent with outsiders since I choose to not be judged.

So, do not worry and enjoy what your have and what you obtain. It you do not like it then sell it at a price that you will have no regrets and move on.

Like anything it has its up and down. As the economy gets better it will start growing again. As of now its growing. again in my eyes. It will depend on how well MTH and others start marketing their products.

Doug

I don't know, and at my age, I don't care. I'm having fun with the layout up-stairs.

One of my major hobbies is taking and collecting stereo (3-D) film slides. The national craze lastest from 1948 to 1953, and was pretty much dead by 1960. I, and about 200 others worldwide are still involved, with a hot eBay market, at least 3 forums, and 2 Facebook groups. Who needs millions of others to make it fun?

Well, at my house it is thriving.  That's all that really matters.

Myself, I got seriously into "O" last year. My neighbor who never owned, ran a model railroad just got started in "O", even though HO, N, Z, G, and S are out there. If it was dying, I would see more deals out there, and buy more. People smarter then me would get out and sell at bargain prices, as would Hobby Shops. But alas, its not to be. "O" is here to stay, Polar Express took care of that. Possible when the Autobiography of Veranda Turbine hits the best seller list, we'll again see more made to order engines coming up.

No, not dying. Look at the size of the current catalogs compared to the catalogs of several years ago. The selections are amazing. To me that says something. I'm sure O gauge trains will outlast me without a problem. As Lee says, they are thriving here. Well as much a budget allows that is.

I think there will always be folks interested in trains. The numbers of them may vary, but there will always be some as long as there are trains. One other thing, the real rail roads were also written off as dying (or dead) years ago and look at them now. They are thriving and scrambling to keep up with demand.

Product wise, the hobby is still growing with exciting new options coming available each year. While the number of participants may be steady or even dropping, the introduction of technology has resulted in a cycle of folks selling off older engines to buy the newest offerings with the best features. This alone will help sustain sales. It's kind of like trading in a car every year for the newest model, though the obsolescense isn't planned so much as driven by the rapid evolution of technology.

Just look at all of the steam locomotives on the buy sell board offered because the seller bought the Vision Line or proto 3.0 versions. In a few years these buyers will be back for the proto 4 or super vision line versions because the newest products are growing in realism by leaps and bounds.

Also we are seeing different new technologies (or perhaps more ingenious applications of existing recent technologies) like Bachmann's planned bluetooth app and the LionChief+ locomotives which offer command control without a dedicated command system infrastructure. As technology becomes easier to use it will draw more buyers.

As long as people have disposable cash (or credit) and the products keep improving the hobby will persist. Marrying technology with a real 3-D miniature world may even draw in youngsters.

I guess we'll all know in ten years if we are still here.....

First, welcome to the Forum. Nice to see that you are taking an active role.

To answer your question, I would not lose any sleep over this. There is sufficient interest in our hobby for the manufacturers to supply us with the best O-Gauge equipment ever produced. That's what is important, we have great stuff to play with that peaks our interest.

Like most of us, do your part by being a good ambassador and share our hobby with as many as you can.

It's morphing. Older generations are either still enjoying their vintage toys or have sold them off! but their numbers are shrinking. Aging generations such as myself generally like the vintage stuff, but it's got to be in pristine condition. We also will dabble in some of the newer stuff. Our numbers are still strong, but we are buying less and our numbers although currently relatively steady will begin to start declining in the near future. The younger generation are fewer in numbers, and they generally prefer the newer items as they have no nostalgic connection to the older items. A growing minority are collecting and a growing majority are operating. The younger generation are growing but in much smaller numbers than pervious generations. 

Even though I vowed last year after we moved to NEVER move again, I would sure like to live in an area like this surrounded by O gauge train stores. Then again my budget is in bad enough shape with only one O gauge train store about 15 miles away. I am very happy just to have an O gauge train store in my area though.

TheGandyDancer,

You may have missed me above. Older generation that re-entered the hobby only because of the electronics and command control. And, of course, the modern equipment and selections we have to choose from today. I like the electronics as much as I like the trains. It's like two hobbies all in one!

In my area hobby shops are dying. There aren't 1/2 of what there was 20 years ago or a 1/3 of what there was 40 years ago. I noticed most of the customers at train shows are 80% over 60 years old, with maybe 15% between 20 & 60 & the last 5% as kids. That's not great for the future. Most people want everything RTR, model buildings included, & they all want super detail & wiz bang electronics. Or at least they *think* they do. This is driving prices thru the roof & that makes it harder & harder to get new people into the hobby for budget reasons. I also noticed that hi dollar value doesn't always equal high quality & that's got to drive newcomers into the hobby crazy if they lay out big $$$ & end up with a sub par product that gives them fits & starts. 20 years from now there will still be model trains but exactly what the landscape of the model train industry will look like is anyone's guess.

My little slice of traindom is too small to tell. Locally, the only difference I see is that some of the chain stores don't have their usual Lionel train set offerings... The LHS has been PACKED OUT with train buyers. By listening to their conversations many pf them are first timers.

My view…

PW & MPC are done.

I can’t even get 15 bucks a car for this old non detailed, non scaled toy crap.

I see this stuff on ebay starting at 99 cents a car closing out with no bids.

People are asking more for Weaver non die-cast truck cars and K-line O than MTH Premier and not selling.

As for true “O” it’s not selling either. O is all over priced in today’s market.

A change is drastically needed to keep it going.

We are a dwindling few that are leftovers from the real train old days.

Most of us have obtained or made everything we wanted in “O” now.

Let’s face it; three railer’s won’t pay those high prices for shiny stock items anymore.

S.

Hard to say. It doesn't look great considering alot of folks feel as though the manufacturers are screwing them on a regular basis.

This is my sentiments exactly!  Have fun and share the hobby with others!

Who cares?  As long as one enjoys being involved with toy trains, it is not very important what the condition of the overall hobby is doing.  Lee put it a little more diplomatically than I have.  He says it's doing fine at his house, and I say I have fun with it, so who cares about whether it's going or coming.

Since people have been asking this same question, for the last forty years, my guess is, that it ain't dyin' yet.

Richie

I care, I want my son to enjoy this as much as I do & my dad did before me & I want to make sure his kids keep our trains alive & well. Older guys that don't encourage youth to get involved, not understand their issues they face with the hobby, & see them as a bother are short sighted & don't realize that they will be the ones to continue the tradition & take it into the future. We are all just caretakers here.

Manufacturers are pretty close lipped as to what their sales %'s are in the market place. 

20 years ago... or thirty years ago, did you see high-end markets like Vision, Premier targeted to end users (older, baby-boomers w/ thicker wallets of disposable income)? Twenty first technology does come into play here though.

In the starter set market... what has that been doing in the last 10, 15 to 20 years?

Has Lionel diversified their market audience by going in NASCAR Die-cast?

Guarantee one thing, the train manufactures care and for good reason.

I will say this, the Hobby is growing older... but it definitely hasn't died yet. I believe we still have a long way to go...  time to go take my pills.

BNSFTrains,

    Welcome to the Forum. I think your question is a fair one. Just because this topic has been discussed in the past doesn't mean there's no value in meaningful dialogue. There's always room for new opinions and perspectives. Thanks for posting this topic.

     My belief is that the hobby is growing and has been for the last 10 years, with the groundwork for the future being laid by the Polar Express. Prior to the Polar Express, most  trains under the Christmas tree were Grandpa's childhood train. "Don't touch it!" Now, things have changed. Christmas trees are no longer complete with the PE circling the base. Kids are allowed to touch and play with the Polar Express. They are the future of the hobby. 

I see better descriptions for the model RR hobby than growing or dying. There are still a lot of baby boomers interested in model trains. Few are joining the hobby so it can be said that the hobby is contracting a bit but far from dying.  Hobbyists are still buying and the choice of suppliers these days is greater than it has ever been in the history of model railroading. Look in OGR and at the banner ads above. The hobby is alive and well if not as big as it was 20 years ago.

What is dying is the Train Collectors Association; an old obsolete operation trapped in the past, promoting the collection of post war items strictly in the period from the early 1900's to 1969. They have absolutely nothing to offer the current day hobbyist but still believe that they are important enough to levy dues increases of 40% in one year and people will still pay. The memberships being lost seem to prove otherwise.  The TCA is the Titanic of the model train world. Its just that they don't yet know it or are too naive to see it. Some people on this forum will mount an emotional argument to disagree with me on this, but the numbers don't lie.

There is a certain amount of geezer attrition, and the hobby base is diminishing but it will continue to thrive in the near future, though not at the same level as present.

BTW, I am a geezer at 72, and as my fellow train friend says, we are on the back nine! 

When I was thirteen I went to the hardware store and bought a 25 pound bag of plaster to build a mountain on my layout. I hoisted it on my sholder, climbed on my bike and pedaled 8 or so blocks home through 1970 Bronx traffic. One hand on the handlebar and the other keeping the bag of plaster on my shoulder. I already had a wire stripper and a soldering iron and a pocket knife and used them frequently to keep the trains running. That kind of hobby is gone. Today it's plug and play. No soldering iron for little Jonnie. Sell a kid a train by putting the name of a ball team on the engine. There's no "train" in it anymore...

Dennis,

You cannot leave it alone can you? Why are you so bitter? Do us all a favor, do a little research if you know how. Research the TCA history, all the way. Now then, read the original mission a few times. The original mission ended with the words....Tinplate Toy Trains. IMHO TCA will come back bigger and better, not in my lifetime. This is fine with me. You say that TCA has nothing to offer the current day hobbyist? Could the cause behind that be persons like yourself not getting involved?

God Bless,

"Pappy"

What Dennis didn't mention is his whopping 40 percent increase amounted to fifteen dollars. I had lunch with one of my sons in Burger King yesterday. It cost more than fifteen dollars.

The number of folks with a long term interest in "O" gauge trains took a big jump in the 1980's and 1990's. I don't think interest is growing right now, I'd guess its shrinking a bit. Still interest will go on.

There is a second group of people who have more of a short term interest in trains. These folks are what I call "the Christmas tree folks". (no disrespect intended) By this I mean the young families that are looking to start their own family traditions with a train set under the Tree, or otherwise played with as part of their holiday. These folks buy a first train set, and over the next few years, may add a few pieces. Then they are done.

As long as I have been in the hobby, the numbers of these folks have gone up and down.

A very small number of these folks in the second group may move over to the first.

IMHO, the number of people in the TCA is likely to continue to shrink, regardless of what the organization does or doesn't do. Folks do not join organizations as readily as they once did. Information and social activities that once were only available to people who joined organizations is now more readily available through the web including applications like Facebook and this chat board. That's any organization, not just the TCA. When I remarked to my wife that one of our local shopping malls seems to be moving from retail to entertainment, she remarked that according to what she's read, this is happening in malls across the country. This is happening because people are shopping on line, and don't use the mall stores. (And tight money affects everything, including purchasing model trains)

I belong to the TCA, and intend to maintain my membership for the foreseeable future.

I find the organization to be worthwhile, as do approximately 30,000 members. Here is a link to their website's page describing what they see as the benefits.