is this hobby growing or dying?

By the way, in my humble opinion, the only folks who really need to concern themselves with whether the hobby is growing or shrinking are those who are in business supplying the hobbyists. Outfits like Lionel, MTH, Atlas, etc. The rest of us should be relaxing, and enjoying our trains.

And to those who say interest in older trains such as MPC and Postwar is dead: I saw lots of that sort of stuff at the last two train shows I attended (Empire State Plaza show in Albany NY and Polish Community Center in Albany NY). Lots of families with children, and people were buying the reasonably priced stuff. Most of them looked to be part of the Christmas Tree crowd.

Another poster mentioned poor sales on EBay. The problem with selling common rolling stock on EBay, or any other "Mail Order" venue is shipping. What can someone pay for a twenty dollar car when the shipping is going to be twelve dollars? My guess: no more than eight dollars.

Sort of off topic, but don't forget about MPC. Guys like me (41) grew up on MPC being new. It's not the same quality as PW, but it's the stuff I drooled over back then & I still collect new old stock items from that time. 

Those of us who run our trains need the suppliers to stay in business, so we have a vested interest in the vitality of the hobby.  If suppliers go out of  business, sooner or later we won't be able to find all of those springs, motors, traction tires, etc., that aren't common hardware items.  

Not growing or dying.

The operative word you're looking for is "evolving"...

Joe

If MPC is your focus, then these are great days for you - most people can't give it away.  I also tend to buy & run stuff that is "underappreciated".

I believe the demand is there, but the supply train (no pun intended) has been changing. This is true of many trades since the economic crash and increase of internet buying.

Sorry if this has already been said by someone else.....

Christmas is the perfect time of the year in seeing this hobby grow.  What better scene to see then a train under the tree.  That's why you see so many different things, articles in newspapers, episodes on the major daily shows, train clubs having open houses, all these things invoking our hobby.  When there are train layouts in local malls, there is always a lot of people stop and look at the going on of the layout.  To see children wide eyed and looking at all the neat stuff, makes this hobby the best.   

  The problem with the hobby is the escalation of high priced engines that many people can't purchase.  The recent blow outs on MLB sets is a start to get people involved at a great price but once you are hooked in this hobby it gets real expensive quick.  Wish there was a fix for this, but with a base of hobbyist with a ravenous thirst for bigger and better sounding engines and components, will this help the hobby?  Stay tuned. What will the future hold when this generation of modeler is gone?  Hopefully it will survive.

quote:

Those of us who run our trains need the suppliers to stay in business, so we have a vested interest in the vitality of the hobby.  If suppliers go out of  business, sooner or later we won't be able to find all of those springs, motors, traction tires, etc., that aren't common hardware items.  

You need suppliers, but you don't need the relatively big companies. As long as I have been involved in this hobby, and long before, there have been little guys, often working out of their homes, making and selling parts, as well as finished goods.

There is at least one fellow participating here who can perform component level repairs on Command Control equipment.

The availability of parts from today's manufacturer/importers is sketchy after just a couple of years anyway.

Every time there is one less Christmas movie or show on TV, during the Christmas season that has been replaced by reruns of "Friends" or worse...It is dying.

Every time the mass media whether it be a commercial, show, movie, etc that says "Seasons Greetings" instead of Merry CHRISTMAS...it is dying.

Every time Lionel releases a Polar Express set, it is growing

With every OGR run, it is growing.

Every week after Thanksgiving that Lionel does not air a Lionel trains commercial, it is dying.

For every Train Store that goes out of business, it is dying.

For every grandchild or child of a model railroader who takes up model trains as a hobby, it is growing.

For every dealer that is rude to a child at a train show, it is dying.

For every good RTR set that causes a first time buyer, to buy another, or move up to a non RTR set, it is growing.

For every poor RTR set that makes a bad impression to a first time buyer or when a first time buyer moves up to non RTR trains, and parts fall off, arrive DOA, or just are a poor product, then it is dying.

For every $1,200+ engine, that is supposed to represent a train makers pinnacle of achievement,  that falls apart when you take it out of the box, it is dying.

Whenever a child talks to or see's the average OGR forum member layout, it is growing.

Although the origin of the person who said this but it goes like this "my demise is greatly exaggerated"

There has always been a cycle of companies large and small coming and going.  In our specifc hobby sadly it tends to be the small business owner.  The reasons are varied. The  one that always comes to mind is the small owner's failure to go to on-line selling in addition to their brick and mortar operation.  FWIW not every small owner has the financial capability or technical expertise to accomplish that.

 While I hate to see any of our hobby's suppliers go out of business and taking people's livelyhoods  with them, I can only try and support them as I can.

My last comment is this.  Collectively the size of just this forum's member's collections is huge Not to mention the numbers of people who have seen their layouts.  Undoudebly this leaves a lot of unfamiliar people with quite an impression Of our hobby. All of our trains will be passed along or otherwise end up in other people's hands thus continuing the interest and product demand.

Admittedly I might be looking at this with rosey glasses but guessing about the future of the hobby will not deter me from the sheer fun of playing with my toy trains While I can.

Sorry for the long post,

Ed

If you want to see how model railroading survives despite all the odds, look to S Scale.

Rusty

Amen

Once again we find ourselves defending our hobby and........my organization, TCA.  As for the hobby, I don't believe it is dying.  I believe it is changing.  the social and technological advancements have the younger generation buried deep into their computers and cell phones.  Tapping todays kids to get involved in our great hobby is very difficult, not impossible but challenging.  Another change in our hobby is economic.  some people just don't have the disposable cash to invest in trains. others may have some money and keep it within their means . all hobbies rise and fall with the economy and ours is no different.  I am fortunate that in these times I can continue expanding my collection, others aren't so fortunate.  I could go on but I will stop here and say that OUR great hobby is not dying. 

     As far as Mr. Dennis LaGrua taking another cheap shot at TCA, I welcome it. It just re enforces how ignorant this man is. Every time Mr. LaGrua goes on an anti TCA rant he brings negativity to such a great hobby. It is very sad.  Every hobby or organization has one.  Mr. LaGrua must be ours.  I feel very sorry for this man. He must be a selfish and lonely person to bring negativity to this wonderful forum.  TCA is a great organization. Is it perfect? No, but other than Mr. LaGrua, who or what is?  I have learned so much more about trains thanks to the networking and the friends I have made through TCA. There is a plethora of information and resources on all kinds of trains, (big, small, new, old), in the TCA.  TCA is an organization that has integrity and is full of  friendly collectors, operators and hobbyists. 

     Merry Christmas to everybody and Happy New Year.  (even you Mr. LaGrua)

Kevin Quinn

VP METCA DIVISION

TCA

I nominate Mr. La Grua  as the next to leave the Island.  The message is old, and you are indeed troubled to spread this VENOM during Christmas Week...OUR Christmas week!!!  ps YOUR PROFILE AND AVATAR(recognizable face?) ARE INDEED CHILLING AT BEST!!!  Every toy train in my home, including each one bought at auction, has probably been touched in some way by a TCAer.  I encourage the MODERATORS to do a search of La Grua's posts and profile...Scary!!!  And to the ORIGINAL POSTER, this is where these threads ALWAYS end up!!!  Ron Blume, TCA 73-5903.

There are less ads every year....even the big dealers, have smaller ads, less pages etc.

What is wrong with TCA promoting PW stuff?

Many people enjoy PW items and PW re-issues.

Frankly, I feel S Scale is the perfect scale, i.e. not to small not to big and 2-rail!

Wish I had gone that route.

I think that one reason many people perceive that the model railroad hobby is shrinking is that most people only look at their hobby segment - O gauge, 3 rail, HO, etc.  During the 1950s Lionel was the only player in town.  HO was just emerging as a viable alternative.  In a like manner, there were only two viable train groups in the early years - the NMRA and the TCA.  Everyone who joined a train group had to be in one or the other.  

Today's model railroad hobby is very diverse.  HO is the most popular segment and many people are joining that segment.  HO is followed by N gauge.  

O scale 2-rail is on a decline primarily because people do have the space for large radius curves.  O gauge 3-rail is steady.  3-rail organizations, however, are shrinking because there are so many of them.  We have TCA, Lionel Operating, Lionel Collectors and various other independent 3-rail groups.  I would guess that if these groups all combined then the membership numbers of the combined group would look very good.  Other people are in modular groups and do not belong to any of the national organizations.  There are several 3-rail modular groups in my area where members are not members of national train organizations.  

The NMRA membership is declining for the same reason.  People are members of modular groups, clubs and informal groups and do not join the national organizations.  Another segment that is taking away from the NMRA membership is the growing narrow gauge segment.  Many narrow gauge folks don't join the NMRA or attend the NMRA convention.  They go to the narrow gauge convention instead.  

One growth segment is garden railroading.  Almost no one in the garden segment belongs to any of the national train organizations.  There isn't a national garden railroad organization to my knowledge.  I am a member of the Bay Area Garden Railroad Society (BAGRS) which has about 250 family memberships.  This is a local San Francisco Bay Area group.  Only a few BAGRS members are active in either the TCA or NMRA.

I think that one possible growth path for the 3-rail hobby is outdoors.  I am a member of the G&O garden railroad which features both G and O gauge 3-rail.  You can find a post about the G&O on this forum.    

My overall impression is that the hobby as a whole is strong but that diversity is leading to a decline in national train organization memberships.  One gauge may be up and another may be down but there still seems to a strong overall interest in the hobby.

Joe

I don't care if it is growing or shrinking.  I enjoy it.  I have enough engines and rolling stock to last me the rest of my life. It  makes no difference, I enjoy it and let others worry about it.  I will probably expire before the layout is finished. I spread the word to others and beyond that it is out of my control.

Well said Mr Quinn !!!

To the OP if you're still reading after all this derailment:  Dying?  No way.  You could have said that as far back as 1929, when Ives went bankrupt. (Maybe farther - I don't know).  American Flyer sold out to A.C. Gilbert in 1938.  Gilbert's AF went under after 1966.

It's just changing, as has been said.  Sure, hobby shops are going under - Isn't that largely because of the internet?  But with $2000 engines selling?  That's healthy.  The most expensive Lionel engines in 1954 went for about an average worker's weekly salary.  I don't think $2000 is average now, even with inflation. 

Growing or dying, who knows? 

IMHO, this is the golden age of model O gauge railroading.  When I was a kid in the late 60's/early 70's, the choices were Lionel, Marx, American Flyer (s gauge).

Anyone in the hobby now has access to Lionel, MTH, Weaver, Atlas, Williams, Sunset/3rd Rail, and several other smaller manufacturers.  Add into this mix, the huge volume of second-hand modern, postwar, and prewar trains.  Then throw in the internet and the ability to buy and sell your trains on an individual level to other individuals. 

To me, this is the best time EVER to be into o gauge trains!

Jim

Read Allan's column in Run 275...Jeff Davis

Seriously considered that myself when re-entering the hobby a few years ago. I also think it's the just about perfect scale. I really do like O gauge the best though and the selections in O compared to S, well I just had to go with O.  

I think things are getting better in S though, at least in the short time I have been back I think there is a lot more selection than when I got going again. They also have some excellent vehicles and trucks in 1:64 scale that we don't have in O gauge. Especially the selection of semi trucks.

model railroading is evolving..just when you think its about to die, it finds ways to survive...in St L  LHS went from about 5 to 2...at least for me...

I miss not having a LHS with in 20 minutes of where ever I am...on the way home from wherever I was working.

so now I have to plan more and make the trips count...

for many LIFE interrupts their TRAIN time..but when they get LIFE into some semblance of order, they find time for trains again....

This hobby is alive and well.  This forum is a testament to that.  I have spent more money on trains in the last five years than anything else.  The number of folks on this forum (and the numbers keep growing), the sponsors keep increasing (thanks Alan) act as a barometer for me.  Heck the responses to this question is also evidence of this hobby's activity.  It will still be going on, even after we have passed our last station.  

Let's see the hobby was supposed to die in 1969 when Lionel ceased post war production. MPC was supposed to go under, as well as some of the future Lionel incarnations. Slot cars and RC cars were supposed to be the nail in the coffin and this computer thing was supposed to wipe out every three dimensional hobby on the planet. Guess what, it just did not happen, as well as the world ending with Y2K. There will always be ups and downs but give the hobby some credit, it has survived worldwide in one form or another for over one hundred years, not too shabby.

all the best,

Miketg

I agree. Just look at this forum.  We never had this forum in "the good ole days"

al K. 

I wonder how much of our different perceptions of this hobby have to do with location? I've never been to a train show or hobby shop further than maybe 60 miles from home so I'd be curious to visit a shop or attend a show in some other unrelated area, away from the rust belt & see if there's more people, or younger people or what the business climate is like somewhere else. 

Thanks Bob and Al..!!

Alan

This hobby will always grow so long as we keep passing/paying it forward.

Nothing brings people together better than trains.

Pete