I read an interesting news article today on how manufacturing companies such as Whirlpool & GE are moving their product manufacturing back to the USA. Perhaps if this becomes more widespread, we may see our trains move back too at some time in the future?
For those who may be interested, here's a link to the article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20983620
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Nicole,
Interesting article. Thanks for posting.
I think it is inevitable. I was watching the CEO of a large US company (actually forget which one) on the TV in a cab while going to a business meeting yesterday, and he was explaining that he thought US companies had "no more than six years" to get out of China, Indonesia, and Malaysia and back to the US with robotic factories, if they expect to remain competitive. Coming so soon after the excellent 60 Minutes piece (no offense to them, but I have to add, for a change . . .) about robotic factories, the need for skilled workers, and modern manufacturing returning to the US last weekend, I think that indeed, many toy trains and probably those I buy will be made within the US within ten years, for sure.
It makes no rational sense, but while i had planned to keep the trains I do have in spite of future offerings (i.e., I have a JLC Big Boy - so no need to buy the admittedly slightly better Vision Big Boy that I have no doubt will, eventually, emerge from Lionel). However, I would buy and replace all my locos just to get "made in America" versions, if and when that happens.
I had said in another thread that I was very optimistic, even bullish, on America's future. This is one more reason.
Highly unlikely, for a good number of reasons, including raw materials and new tooling costs, labor costs (and the associated mandated benefits), lack of a skilled blue collar workforce, high cost of finished products to consumers, etc. Really too many to list, and it would be redundant with what has been posted on thread after thread on this topic over the past decade or so.
I can see major consumer product manufacturing making something of a return to U.S. shore, but the very small toy train market will not be able to do this...not unless all the manufacturers agree to do it simultaneously. Those remaining offshore would simply have too large a competitive advantage.
With companies going robotic, who will have a job in order to buy trains or for that matter anything else? In my opinion, the report on 60 minutes should concern folks. Who will buy the product if they don't have a good job with the income to afford those products. We are in a different world today and technology may have an impact we didn't expect....
Alan
I share some of the concerns that the MIT professors voiced about the pace of change and whether our society and educational system can adapt fast enough, but my experience with robotic factories (I was with a company that set up one for a commodity - $120, product a few years ago) is that they create a fair amount of jobs. Yes, not nearly as many as if humans alone assembled the products, true but plenty, for the right type of skills. The jobs that are created demand good skills but pay good, decent, middle-income wages: you can live well and raise a family on them. Ultimatley that is positive, I think.
I do have concerns but I remain optimistic, particularly for those who are willing to re-train and learn new skills. I also think companies will learn they ahve to be more involved in the "re-education" process of their employees than they now are. Ultimatley that is one reason why my company's robotic factory succeeded, I think.
Highly unlikely, for a good number of reasons, including raw materials and new tooling costs, labor costs (and the associated mandated benefits), lack of a skilled blue collar workforce, high cost of finished products to consumers, etc. Really too many to list, and it would be redundant with what has been posted on thread after thread on this topic over the past decade or so.
I can see major consumer product manufacturing making something of a return to U.S. shore, but the very small toy train market will not be able to do this...not unless all the manufacturers agree to do it simultaneously. Those remaining offshore would simply have too large a competitive advantage.
Hi Allan I thought the largest part of any manufacturing was the raw materials and China has to import most of that from the US and Africa .
James
I think it is gonna happen. People have had it with all the imported junk ,And i mean all of it.Plus cost is gonna even out.I buy as little of the stuff being made today as possible.I get tired of buying stuff that breaks soon after purchase no matter how well you care for it.
I sure hope the USA makes a comeback.
I think it is gonna happen. People have had it with all the imported junk ,And i mean all of it.
Gee, I don't know about that. My Samsung flat-screen TVs are absolutely first rate (affordable, too), as are my Apple products (iMac and iPhone) and the new kitchen appliances I bought in the late spring of 2012. All made overseas.
I Don't Know!!!!! Daimler Chrysler announced this week they are going to start building Jeeps in China to Sell in China. We are building them in the USA, Why not sell the ones we already build in the good old USA to China?
Read this article about Element Electronics American made flat screen t.v.'s .
All things are possible with a little initiative !
To my mind some of the more important points raised in the article were that of being able to better monitor production and quality, and also to be better able to quickly adjust production to meet rapidly changing customer requirements. As one company stated 'It's better to be closer to your customers."
With companies going robotic, who will have a job in order to buy trains or for that matter anything else? In my opinion, the report on 60 minutes should concern folks. Who will buy the product if they don't have a good job with the income to afford those products. We are in a different world today and technology may have an impact we didn't expect....
Alan
I don't have numbers but there have been robots in manufacturing for decades. They have not replaced all the humans and aren't likely to in the forseeable future.
I Don't Know!!!!! Daimler Chrysler announced this week they are going to start building Jeeps in China to Sell in China. We are building them in the USA, Why not sell the ones we already build in the good old USA to China?
It is probably cheaper to build them in China and gives the company higher per vehicle profits.
So Chrysler is building a plant in China to produce 500,000 cars per year. They wanted to build that plant in one of the southern states but because of anticipated union opposition they moved it overseas to china.
Btw they will be building another mega plant in Russia. Are we glad now that our tax dollars went to helping China and Russia.
With companies going robotic, who will have a job in order to buy trains or for that matter anything else? In my opinion, the report on 60 minutes should concern folks. Who will buy the product if they don't have a good job with the income to afford those products. We are in a different world today and technology may have an impact we didn't expect....
Alan
I don't have numbers but there have been robots in manufacturing for decades. They have not replaced all the humans and aren't likely to in the forseeable future.
It boils down to this, I think: robots are getting smarter every year, as technology improves them. Humans, at least those of us who want to stay employed, need to stay ahead of them - which means going back to school every so often and learning more.
Same points--pro and con, and brought up time and time again over the years. All that's different now is that this is a different date.
Bottom line: Consumers speak with their wallets; always have and always will. It's the one voice that businesses respond to.
Staying on topic.....
Lets say Lionel or MTH moved production back to the USA. There will certainly be a "learning curve" for a several years and the prices would be exponentially higher,say 200-400%. I can just see the posts rolling in on the Forum now..."Lousy quality of this USA made piece" "Price much too high on that USA made piece". Does anyone remember how high the prices where on Lionel before they moved production to China? I see more production moving away from China to politically stable/technically capable/highly skilled Pacific rim countries such as Thailand (MTH Z4000's),Malaysia(The new ZW-L),Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam.
We've seen how well trying to build 6464 boxcars in the US has worked out for Lionel...
Rusty
NOT YET !!!
Jerry
I Don't Know!!!!! Daimler Chrysler announced this week they are going to start building Jeeps in China to Sell in China. We are building them in the USA, Why not sell the ones we already build in the good old USA to China?
It is probably cheaper to build them in China and gives the company higher per vehicle profits.
I realise it is cheaper to build them in china, most eyerything is much cheaper to build in china and lots of other countries.
I was trying to make the point related to bringing jobs back and/or keeping jobs in the USA, If companies were able to manufacture in our country and make a profit then why would Chrysler not manufacture all jeeps here and still sell them in china.
As much as I would like to see companies coming back and/or staying in the USA. I have my doubts,and I was referring to Chrysler Story as an example.
Highly unlikely, for a good number of reasons, including raw materials and new tooling costs, labor costs (and the associated mandated benefits), lack of a skilled blue collar workforce, high cost of finished products to consumers, etc. Really too many to list, and it would be redundant with what has been posted on thread after thread on this topic over the past decade or so.
I can see major consumer product manufacturing making something of a return to U.S. shore, but the very small toy train market will not be able to do this...not unless all the manufacturers agree to do it simultaneously. Those remaining offshore would simply have too large a competitive advantage.
Allan,
I think you hit the nail right on the head. I would also add the following...
When Lionel had their production operation in Michigan, does everyone universally believe we had high quality products that were every bit as good as those produced in Irvington during the Glory Days of postwar production? I for one don't think so.
So if manufacturing were to return to the USA, what kind of operation do you think would result and how much would these domestically produced products cost?
Just some food for thought.
Cheers,
Ken
I think Lee is correct....education to keep up with the rapid changes is the key. I think my concern is as workers get replaced in their workplace with robots, are there going to be enough jobs out there to replace those that were lost because of the robots. I realize that robots are not likely going to replace all jobs but the change is happening at a faster pace and many folks that can't keep up may find themselves jobless. SO....I think many workers today are going to have to be willing to re-educate themselves. Perhaps some new jobs will be created within the field of manufacturing robots!!
Alan
a) Daimler Chrysler doesn't exist, the "merged company" split in 2007.
b) The Jeep production in China is for the Chinese domestic market. There was no way the Chinese would allow the importation of that many vehicles no mater where they were made in the US and whether or not the employees belonged to any union.
c) The new factories in the US are highly automated. This has been happening for the last 30-40 years. This is the main reason that there hasn't been an uptick in manufacturing jobs. When the economy started to turn the factories accelerated replacing lower skilled manufacturing jobs with automated processes. Robots don't get tired, go on strike, need pensions or health care. They also don't buy stuff. The issues of needing a more technologically aware work force has been trumpeted for the last 30-40 years and largely ignored. When you ignore problems they don't go away, they just change, and they usually change for the worse.
d) This automated process only makes sense for MASS produced items like cars, refrigerators, etc. which leaves toy trains out of the equation. We may not be importing trains from China but we will be importing them from somewhere.
Replying to those who've commented that corporations returning manufacturing to the US and using robotics will cost Americans jobs - most definitely not! Those jobs were lost years ago when US manufacturing moved overseas. The loss of jobs will be for those people overseas who are currently manufacturing those products. Of course, the intention of returning US manufacturing isn't to create jobs anyway, but corporations see it as a way to retain contol over their future and necessary to stabilize and increase their financial bottom line.
Allan, as for your comments about model train ,manufacturing unlikely making a return to the US - being about the same age, you and I, I'd say we've seen so much change during our lifetime that more than a few things we thought implausible and highly unlikely to happen actually did happen and even became the new norm. With the worldwide political scene destabilizing around us smart business thinking sees returning to the US as necessary if they wish to retain control of their own destinies. People in China and most other places in the world are finally awakening and refusing to be continue being exploited with low wages, poor working conditions, etc. -- all things indicative of a lower standad of living than what the consumers of those products they're producing have. In similar fashion to Japanese workers of decades ago, current Chines and SE Asian workers are beginning to demand a higher standard for themselves both financially and environmentally.
Train companies will eventually face having to leave SE Asia and return to the US or set up business in some of the African nations - the only region in the world yet to be exploited. There will be nowhere on Earth left for them to go.
Could not agree more!
People have had it with all the imported junk ,And i mean all of it.
Yes, Workers in other countries are beginning to demand higher standards and pay scale. However I dont see a freeze in this country. When they ask for 25 cents more , we in this country ask for 50 cents more. OMHO
I guess young folks should learn how to build and maintain robots. The all important machine tool industry will return if robots prevail, as well as Foundries.
Police reported that some recently stolen manhole covers were ID-ed as "Made in China".
Along with my 55 gallon Brunswick Stew Pot, textile loom sides, furniture machinery components,etc, manhole covers used to be cast in Foundrys just north and west of here adjacent to Southern Ry spurs.
Seems we cover this topic often. I agree to an extent as I work in the hobby field and we see SOME production returning to the USA from Asia. As costs of tooling, labor, materials and shipping rise quickly for items from Asia stateside production becomes more viable.
But model trains are a niche item in a niche business, hobbies. I can see structures from the big 3 and maybe 'dumb' (no electronics) freight and passenger cars being made here someday. But locos with all the complex internals and labor intensive assembly will stay in Asia until their cost are equal to ours AND then none of us willl be able to afford them!
If you want new items in the model rail hobby you will have to buy Asia sourced items for a great while.
It's that simple.
Now I'd love to prove me wrong....and if I had the cash I'd go down in flames trying...(manufacturing model trains in the USA) ..but no one with the cash will join me for this experiment!!! 
Manufacturing returning to the U.S. sounds great but its only half the equation.
Unless we fix our education system here in U.S. we will be importing skilled workers.
I'm always amazed at the number of pontificating blowhards who come out of the woodwork to spew political drivel when this topic comes up.
As I am also a certified, card-carrying, pontificating blowhard , let me just say that change happens constantly, and tomorrow will be different than today. Get used to it.
America is a strong nation, with tremendous technological and natural resources--we aren't going to disappear anytime soon, and rumours of our demise are premature at best. Lee is right to be optimistic; our country has a bright future ahead in spite of the problems we grapple with.
So please, enjoy your trains...and stop working your collective colons into knots over foreign policy and trade matters that you aren't fully informed on---put on your engineer's cap, pop open a beer, and take a chill pill--at least until the next election season--which will probably start tomorrow (actually, I think it started the day after the last election--but I say the heck with them all, at least for now)...
Jeff C
There is a family here in the UK that are trying to live a whole year buying only items
made or grown here,and they are finding it very hard with only 2 weeks into the year.
It will be interesting to see what has happened at years end.
James
quote:Same points--pro and con, and brought up time and time again over the years. All that's different now is that this is a different date.
Bottom line: Consumers speak with their wallets; always have and always will. It's the one voice that businesses respond to.
My response to this is that train are far from cheap. You mean to say that we can't produce $59.95 box cars in the USA competitively? Also when Lionel moved to China in the mid 1990's not only did the prices not go down, they went up!
Consumers do speak with their wallets but there isn't going to be any money in that wallet to do the speaking if all the jobs are in China. If all consumer manufacturing moved back to the USA, unemployment would be low, prosperity would abound and we would have the money to pay more for American goods.
The Chinese standard of living is rising sharply and ours is going down. When you add in the cost of transportation, factor in the quality; its becoming more and more expensive to manufacture overseas and becomings less expensive here. Prediction- all of our manufacturing will be done in the USA by 2018.
Thanks, James! Glad somebody pointed out it's not just an American thing.
We need to get rid of the EPA if we are going to compete with China.
We need to get rid of the EPA if we are going to compete with China.
I'm sorta fond of clean air and water.
Rusty
We need to get rid of the EPA if we are going to compete with China.
If Alan is right, and consumers choose the lowest price goods regardless, then why the heck are you guys buying NEW? I reiterate my question posed in another thread... As long as virtually untouched rolling stock from the 90's is selling for HALF the cost of new, WHY are you buying new production? Personally, I am limiting my purchases more than ever before, and like many, dumping the stuff I don't have room to store anymore. You should too, before this hobby completely collapses.
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