Rude Awakening

I remember how much was spent on my DL&W 18003 when it was new...

 

Glad I was lucky enough to run it to death!

 

Eric

 

 

I told my kids when they were growing up........if you collect......collect what you love because you may get to eat it!! (IE worth zero someday)

I like and own 1/1 Pony cars, plastic models and model trains. I HAVE made money on some of them but it was never my goal. Everything I have today I value at much more than I could sell it for.....and I'm fine with that.

Having made prior brilliant investments in such things as beer, gasoline for power boats, and electric trains, I have decided to put the whole of my portfolio into forever stamps from the post office. I think they started at thirty eight cents! Chooch

 

       

       


Add the endorsement as a "stated value" policy - YOU CHOOSE THE STATED VALUE NOT THE INSURANCE COMPANY - . Your now insuring them for the total dollar figure stated and not by individual items. If you have a loss then your covered up to your stated value. your premium is then based on the value you've stated. but keep in mind - INSURANCE COMPANIES DONT CARE ABOUT ANYONE OR ANYTHING BUT THEMSELVES AND THEIR BOTTOM LINE FOR THEIR SHARE HOLDERS - THEY WILL TYPICALLY HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE OF WHAT THEIR ADJUSTERS ARE LOOKING AT OR THEIR VALUES SO THEY USUALLY WILL TRY TO FIND THE CHEAPEST COMPARIBLE ITEM LESS ANY CONDITION RATINGS TO PAY THE LEAST TO THEIR POLICY HOLDERS - THIS CAN BE AVOIDED BY THE STATED VALUE POLICY ENDORSMENT

All you need to do is go to York and look at the asking prices on the tables in the member halls.  Everything you have will be worth a lot more on paper, just don't try to sell it.

More and more technology has appeared in our model trains....usually for the better.  But technology changes....and it always will.  What is cutting edge one day will be three generations old in 10-15 years....and generally not desired as much....so there goes any material long-term increase in value.

 

It also seems odd to pay such a premium for a locomotive laden with today's most advanced electronic/digital features....only to keep it stored in a box.  It's somewhat counterintuitive, if you ask me.

 

I also think that many people have embraced an "It's Quality that Matters, not Quantity" mentality.  I don't see anyone stocking up on items any more...for lots of good reasons.  No matter how you look at it, there are fewer and fewer collectors out there.

Yes Eddie, but the real question is, who was holding it when the bottom dropped out?

Actually it's the stock market, though it isn't that different from Vegas.

The world is much smaller now in the digital era.  There is a whole world of rare collectible items once pushed by middle men that simply are not rare now that any such item across the world is accessible to the buyer. Times have changed.

quote:

Back around 1986 I bought a Boston & Albany Hudson that was sold directly from Lionel for around $698. I sold it a couple of years later for $2,000.

 

A couple of years ago I picked up two of those Boston and Albany Hudsons, in new, old stock for somewhere around $300 each. I'd have to check my files for an exact price.

 

 

I have a first run Micro Trains N scale box car.  I found out later in life that if I left it in the original blister pack and not run it it would have been worth a thousand times more then I bought it for.  I learned of my misfortune reading an n-scale collector auction report.

Lionel, Marx, American Flyer, etc. make toy trains. Toys, period. There will always be collectors of toys, but from what I have seen, there are 2 types, those that collect to enjoy and bring back an era or childhood, and those that seek them as an investment. The later group wanning away, and investments no longer there.

Decades ago, Radio Premiums, toys made with TV heroes names on them were sky rocketing in prices, as were the Marx playsets, and Hartland Figures. Today their prices have fallen so fast, lucky if you can recover a dime for the dollars you spent on them. Also, many don't even remember or know the heroes of yesterday were. The same for many trains. Buy them for what they were made for, enjoyment and playing with. Not as I see so many when it comes time to sell, or the need to sell, and expecting a return on the money spent.

Pork-belly futures!  Great investment!

 

As long as there's a York...there'll be demand for pork!  (Scrapple, that is, et al....whoever Al is?)

 

Besides, Washington, D.C. takes care of the other 50 weeks really well.

 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch....

 

 

BTW...for the best investment, read Matthew 6: 19-21

It's impossible to predict future demand on the same basis that led you to buy it in the first place. The fluctuating market demand or trends goes up and down like a roller coaster on any collectible whether it's paintings, furniture or toy trains. The other issue is the 100 year mark for an antique versus vintage. No one will be there to capitalize on that anyway. I doubt most contemporary stuff will be operable in 100 years...How many collect "shelf queens?" Few if any. These are toys...meant to be played with. Toys are not cars, paintings or furniture and they are do not have a value of utility beyond this unless they are no longer produced and are more like art objects. Today's toy trains just dont have that cross appeal.

Dad and I bought a sailboat in 1981 for $9500.  Today I could sell her for around $30,000.  But the years spent with Dad on the water?  Priceless.  And I hope to be able to hand her down to my kids when I'm done...

 

Jon

quote:

The other issue is the 100 year mark for an antique versus vintage.

 

The antiquing publications I read this past summer were discussing a downward tend in antique collecting. According to these articles, young people are tending towards living in smaller spaces, and are more mobile, so they don't want a lot of stuff to weigh them down. Additionally, many of the folks decorating with "antiques", really don't care whether the item is genuine or reproduction.

 

I am glad I never purchased any sort of hard goods, including trains, as an investment.

 

The only thing I ever bought related to this hobby that increased in value were some hand built 1:43 cars (other than Brooklin). Some are now going on eBay for 2 to 3 times what I paid for them.

 

"Back around 1986 I bought a Boston & Albany Hudson that was sold directly from Lionel for around $698. I sold it a couple of years later for $2,000."

 

I bought that white-faced Hudson, too. It was junk!

 

The only thing I've ever seen increase in value were old boxes.  I sold a bunch for $90 once.

 

The difference between Las Vegas and the stock market is that they take your money more honestly in Vegas.  And anyway, this formula is for how to make a million dollars playing jazz guitar.

 

Trains are to run and enjoy, although I admit it's easier to dust boxes than the trains.

 

Pete

Flipping houses (the market crash we all know too well)... Beanie Babies (need I say more)...  Hummel Figurines (like trains they just created all they could sell before people realized they did it!).... Franklin Mint (same story... they'll make anything and say its worth $100 and "bound to go up in value").... custom motorcycles (too many bought them in the boom and now they go for 1/4 the cost to make them!).   

 

The awesome investment item of today is usually on the way out if you've heard about it.  They people selling you the investment today are the ones making the money by selling out now before the price goes down.  If you've heard about it so has the rest of the world that is full of savvy investors that are smarter than I am.  

 

The only objects that hold value are ones that have an active and flourishing market for them such as coins, stamps, commodities, and stock.  I'm still thinking stamps and coins are a poor investment as they fluctuate tremendously!  Personally I'm still waiting for the floor to drop back out of the muscle car market so that I can once again afford to buy one someday.  

 

If your not buying it to use yourself, you are just gambling.

If your buying toy trains as an investment,

you are buying them for the wrong reason.

I go by two lines:

1.) an item is only worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it

2.) if the item is sold new as "a collectable", it's probably not

 

That being said, my trains are for play, so if I know i'm not going to get $1000 worth of fun out of a new engine when I can pick up a junker postwar for $50, fix it up myself, have fun and improve my tinkering skills on the way, i won't buy the new one.

Other stuff, I buy what I like.  I spend  saturday mornings at yard sales a flea markets.  I buy something, enjoy it for a while, and sell it when i get bored of it.  If i make even close to what i spent I still consider it a good buy because i got to enjoy it for a while.  I mean, apparently I've had a good eye since I was young because all that "junk" my parents shook my head at when I brought home sold pretty well.  And my father always wondered why I never asked for spending money in college

 

The only thing I buy as an investment is my coin collecting.  I feel that over the long term it will either hold it's value or increase (i only buy silver coins).  Even with that, I still get much enjoyment in finding that missing date and I have a sense of accomplishment when I can open the book and see all the dates and mintmarks filled.  But one day if I need to put a down payment on a house or my kids are going off to college, I'll sell them.  I don't expect they'll cover the cost by any means, but I do expect they'll make a sizeable dent!

This is getting a bit off topic, I know, but still sort of related to buying anything as an investment.  Please skip past if it bores you.  Then again, given my screen name, some of you should be prepared.

 

Regarding the example of a $698 purchase and the $9,500 sail boat, it is worth mentioning that it takes 3-5 dollars today to buy what 1 did in 1980.  There is a lot of complexity to inflation and the real value of things, but the fact remains that even if you could sell your toys for double what you paid 30 years ago, you're still losing a lot of money.  While not entirely accurate one can look at the "price" of gold today for an example.  The real value of gold hasn't changed(much).  So why the rise in price?  Pretty simple, the dollar is worth less. ( or worthless depending on your views )  With an inflation based economy as we have you lose value day after day even if you can sell something for the same amount of dollars as you paid.  This is especially troubling for lots of older folks that did the "responsible" thing and saved for their retirements, as they will soon find that that fat nest egg just doesn't go as far as they expected it to.  

 

Here's a pretty good source for some information on the true value of your dollar over the years:  

http://www.measuringworth.com/

 

“So you think that money is the root of all evil?” said Francisco d’Anconia. “Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can’t exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or of the looters, who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil?"  -- A.R.

There is one thing that we are overlooking here.   When the baby boom generation was in their 20's and 30's, model trains were hot ticket items. A generation shortly in and/or entering the work world now had the funds to get all of the trains that they wanted as kids but couldn't afford. Buying of trains was brisk and frantic. Fast forward 35 years later. The demographic of those that buy the trains has changed. It is the same generation but now composed mainly of middle age and elderly people,   Much of that generation is now retired, overstocked with trains, relocating/downsizing, may have health/age issues and many have gone to their eternal rest. Other people as myself have completed their dream layouts and need little to maintain it.

In short, the supply is now larger while the market has gotten smaller. The price of trains will continue to decline. With rare exceptions, it has to.

 

A very well thought and insightful reply, Dennis.

 

Another factor driving down the price of old trains is the vast quantity of new trains being produced by Lionel, MTH and others.  The new trains generally have better detail, better motors and certainly better electronics.  The guys in my model railroad club would rather buy a VL $2,000 Big Boy than a Big Boy made just a few years ago even if the price is only $500.

 

The only thing that would drive up the price of old trains would be if all the manufacturers stopped making them.  This would only happen if the world was in a crisis and then no one would be buying toys of any kind.

 

Joe

I am 51 years old. I have 3 American Flyer O-gauge passenger cars from the mid 1920's, and a fourth one on the way. I have about $70 "invested" in the whole collection. Perhaps in another 90 years I may double my money!  WOO HOO!!!!

I went to an auction two weeks ago.  They had two 8 foot tables of die cast vehicles;  1:18, 1:24: 1:32 scale.  Lots of Franklin Mint. Over 100 pieces from someone's collection.  The average selling price was about $15.00.  At that same auction about a year ago, I bought lot of 7 American Flyer freight cars for $15.00.  One was a Rath Packing Company box car. I sold it for $200 at a show.  Go figure. Once the weather warms up, I spend almost every weekend going to garage sales, church sales, school sales and flea markets.  Amazing what one finds.

If you buy what you want/like, simply and solely for the purpose of personal self enjoyment, or the shear joy of sharing with others, you will be fine.... If however you purchase anything with the thought that you are going to make a killing on anything, you are doomed to failure! Sure, we all have made a purchase or two and made a sale latter on and made a buck or two, but be honest with yourself, those are very far and few between, just enjoy your "stuff", have fun, Life is much to short, Have a great day everyone! 

I never saw trains as an "investment", or expected to make any profit from them.  But I'm currently selling off most of my MPC trains (nearly finished, thankfully) and this rings true for me.  I've decided to go back to HO, and just can't keep it all here in storage.  Even though I got all of it at low prices, I've still lost money selling it- most pieces have sold for 25-30% less than I paid, in some cases only a few months ago.  By comparison, when I sold off some surplus HO equipment a couple years ago, I only lost money on a couple pieces and it wasn't much.  I mostly broke even and even made a few bucks on certain items.

The market is shrinking, no question about it.

First mistake telling your wife second mistake telling your wife you just lost money

Diok S,

   My biggest fear is that I will pass away and my wife will sell all my guns and trains for what I told her I paid for them.   Value like beauty is in the eye of the beholder,

use the equipment, tools, guns and toys for your own reasons and intrinsic value.

PCRR/Dave

• Worth something already
• Something not a lot of people kept around

Yep. They stopped being collectible in an investment sense when only collectors (for the most part) started buying them.

People can't seem to grasp today that the truly collectible stuff now was useable stuff back then and little of it got saved in good condition. So, if a great deal of the useable stuff being made now is being maintained in good condition and not used at all, then it only follows that it'll never be worth as much as the older (and rarer) old stuff is.

Just ask anyone who got suckered into 'collector plates,' or beenie babies as investments, yet can't even get out of them what they put into them now.

I just work a few extra hours now for hobby money.

And remind my wife that I run them lots enjoy them over and over, take them to shows and run them for the public share my hobby lots of happy people and families seeing the trains run. Some day will have something to sell. Do I expect to get what I paid for them no not at all.

But I still get something back for them.

 

The same cannot be said if I spent my time in a bar drinking, going to a sports event with big prices or out for dinner.

For those you get a little enjoyment at the time but it is gone 20 years later.

But with model trains can run them for many years and still some day get a few $'s for them or even to give them away to a charity or to some kids that might really enjoy them. That is where I expect a lot of the older well used engines could go.

Model trains are great in that you get to have your cake and eat it, too...

You get the experience of buying and then using the item. Thus, you spent the money on an item that'll be around as long as you want as well as the memories of its use, assuming you didn't just keep it in a box (which makes ZERO sense to me for a newly-made item).

I came to the realization a long time ago not expect to get anywhere near what I paid for my trains if and when they are sold.  Many of them I thought that I "bought right" but even at that if we get over 25 to 50 cents on the dollar we will most likely be doing good.

 

There are a few exceptions such as K-Line passenger cars, but those are far and few between.  Just buy what you can afford, try to enjoy it, and don't mislead yourself that you will be making a profit on them.

 

Art

I have plenty of locomotives here that are worth half of what they were new.  Sometimes when I see the e-bay prices I can't believe they are true.  A month ago, I believe it was Stout, had their on-line auction listings on e-bay and it was disgusting what many of their modern items sold for.  Those prices will have an affect on e-bay pricing for a long time.  Hard to find postwar variations are my favorites.  Two years ago I purchased a red letter 3454 for around $200.00, it was in a box of cars that I bought and I didn't know it was in there at the time.  I sold it a year ago january on e-Bay for $4,500.00.  That made up for a lot of the new stuff I lost on.  That is a once in a lifetime example but there are a lot of hard to find variations out there waiting to be bought.  As one of the earlier posts mentioned, I too like to buy trains at garage sales and church rummage sales as there are some real bargains out there if you look hard enough.

 

 

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