Train Prices!

I’m sorry, but this is an old story. It will continue forever.
Alan

Get use to it, Dont expect  them to come down

Some prices(not just toy trains) are for grandpa and grand ma who know, "Little Johnny has a Lionel train, we should get him something to go with it."  They do not know if a price is inflated, do not know if little Johnny wants that particular car but they can buy it, mail it and scratch that  'task' off the list.  John

I always hate to see price gouging (yeah, free market yada yada yada) - sooner or later, the buyer will realize that they've been had, and it can sour them on the entire hobby.  Some people will try for a quick buck at the expense of others.  There's a special place for them...

Isn't that "new" set pushing a decade old?

Jon

A set from the 2012 catalog, probably very limited availability, most likely will fetch a higher price.  I'm not sure you can categorize it as gouging on a non essential item.  Like it or not if the seller feels he can get that price then the consumer should do some homework and make an informed decision.  Again my comment is based on this non essential product.

Less supply, more/steady demand = rising prices. In 10-15 years, I predict postwar prices will have dropped through the floor due to the supply coming from estate sales.

Like I said before, it's an issue largely created by the manufacturers themselves.  Limited runs every 3 decades of items in high demand.  No high demand...oh, let's offer that every year.

Unless its new tooling, I don't  plan on adding anything  more to my collection. Latest tripple prices on the common stuff has exceeded my limit. There are no more must haves on those items.

This topic has come up several times in the last 6 months.  Asking prices are indeed up dramatically.  Sometimes 3 to 4 times above where they were a year or two ago.

There's no hint however that selling prices are following suit whole-hog, except for occasional "oddball" transactions.

Most of us, unless we're newbies, aren't buying it.  Let them ask all they want.  Patience is required.

It takes more work to find deals in this kind of situation, but you can still find them.  Unfortunately many of us want things immediately and can't wait.

Mike

I have not been paying premium prices for trains at all in the last several years.  It just takes patience and some research.  As has been mentioned in so many of these threads and above, asking price and selling price are two different things.  Just last week I got a great bargain on a car I have been seeking for over six months.  There is a seller that has had it listed at $100 on the auction site for the entire 6 months.  I purchased it from another seller for $10.  In my opinion it was worth $30 to me.

If someone wants to buy an item at a premium it is their right to do so, just as it is the right of the seller to ask a premium for an item.  That is the market system at work.  I am not often willing to pay a premium for an item.  There have been two occasions during my last 23 years on that auction site I have paid a premium price for an item and I was not dissatisfied.

@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:

Unfortunately many of us want things immediately and can't wait.

Mike

There you go...talking about me again.

Maybe they are basing their asking price on what they see in the latest Lionel catalog.  $150 for a caboose, $400 for 2 woodsided passenger cars, $140 for 1 4-door hi-cube car!?!

Not a bash on Lionel.  I'm still on the fence about ordering certain MTH 36' reefer cars because of the $90 price tag.

I would have to say that I have a few items that I have yet to see come up for sale, and that I would definitely pay a premium for.  I've been looking for these items for over 2 years.

There are multiple issues here, which have been kind of thrown together. There are 2 seperate markets here:

1)New production prices. As we have talked about ad infinitum, new train prices are not getting any cheaper (with the exception of Menard's new engine, which is another kettle of fish). Without revisiting the whole arguments about why, basically it is a high end product with limited market and therefore huge profit margins (the high end smart phones on the other hand are a huge market that produces a lot, yet has high profit margins; a 1200 buck Iphone costs about 170 bucks to make). Prices are set in all cases by what the market will bare.

Not gonna get any cheaper, either, as prices rise because of wage pressure in China and also with inflation in general.

2)Newer generation used equipment. Taking here specifically about DCS and TMCC/Legacy gear. Prices here likely are going to rise as new production units prices rise (and I realize that it isn't totally fungible, for the obvious reason that an old TMCC Hudson is not the same thing as a Vision line model, some people like myself might not care that much, others would). If someone wants command control but cannot lay out 1500,2k for a new engine, they may look in the used market.

Prices here will be supply and demand. I see asking prices all over the place, I suspect if you look at sale prices it is going to boil down to supply and demand; asking prices are usually very high, figuring someone who really wants it will pay anything or someone who (stupidly) thinks trains are a hot collectible and figures they can buy it, wait, then sell it for a lot more.

3)Post war  This is a place where prices can be all over the place, there (in some people's minds, mostly sellers) is still an idea post war is old, nostalgic, and therefore must be expensive. Some post war (and pre war, obviously) is valuable because it is mint and is unique, etc, and those will be expensive because they real collectors items.

On the other hand, seeing a mundane ZW with an asking price of 180 bucks, when I could get it the next table over for like 85, tells you something. One idiot had MTH freight cars for like 65 bucks, at another table could get the same thing for 20 or 25, same identical model, in same shape, in boxes, etc. I call that ignorance pricing, they figure they will find someone who thinks this stuff all is gold and can sell it at an inflated price, and if someone who knows comes along, can be negotiated down.

Me, it all depends on my mindset. I generally know what I want to spend on something, and even if I really want it, I generally will wait until I can find it in my price range, not gonna die if I don't have it.

Trains are discretionary spending, not like your furnace died in winter, and the answer to high prices is to figure out what something is worth to you and wait until you get your price *shrug*

My favorite pieces of Lionel scale rolling stock are PS-1 boxcars, diecast offset hoppers, and diecast 3-bay hoppers. The current releases of them have really gone up in price and down in content (namely, the truck quality is way down as beaten to death on here, admittedly, by me and others). As I accumulated them gently used or NOS, I justified paying prices near what they sold for new in some (but not all) cases because the previous releases are cut from the exact same tooling and are much nicer since they were made before the trucks were cheapened.

I’m not trying to derail the thread, but instead provide a specific example of what might be driving prices of older items up: some of it is better than the new stuff and, as a result, can be justified at high prices that approach new stuff.

Just my $0.02 and maybe not worth $0.02.

@bigkid posted:

Me, it all depends on my mindset. I generally know what I want to spend on something, and even if I really want it, I generally will wait until I can find it in my price range, not gonna die if I don't have it.

Trains are discretionary spending, not like your furnace died in winter, and the answer to high prices is to figure out what something is worth to you and wait until you get your price *shrug*

Exactly... good post and these 2 points in particular. 👍

Mark in Oregon 🎄

I know prices go up every year but WOW this year has really gone up! Like others I’m in no need to buy but I like browsing at night time. I really miss the site “Letgo” it was a site for local sale like 20 miles from your house. I got some great deals on that site but they went under. I’m sitting and waiting as well.

After watching train prices for 30+ years, Prices rise from Oct.-Mar. "train season".  However, with the current pandemic prices have gone up.  With MTH " going out of business" scare seems to have increased demand.  Asking price has very little to do with selling price on the bay.  I have noticed that MTH Proto 1 prices have soared.  Two years ago you couldn't give them away because of the dead battery problem.  Now prices are up considerably.  Units that I purchased 20 years ago are going for close to what I paid for them.  I had several (in good working order) that I used this opportunity to sell at discounted prices.  Example, Railking items that I would have been happy to get $150, now are going for $300 +.  I was happy to get $200+.   For a more reasonable price quote go to the completed sales for the item you are looking to buy.

Art

With covid the hobby gained a lot of new customers as people looked for things to do at home. Hopefully they stay active beyond lockdowns. This creates additional demand.

With MTH dropping out there is a big decrease in supply. The custom runs they do can be for as little as 25 cars.

With lack of vaccinations worldwide it’s hard to keep plants running. I work in manufacturing and once covid gets into the plant population it can, and does, shutdown production. Creating less supply.  

Let’s not forget about the tariff war with China. It has caused an increase in prices too. The $80 box car shocker a few years ago is an example.

I've noticed the prices of building materials, land, and houses are going up also. 

I refuse to pay inflated prices and as such, I haven’t bought much recently.  There’s nothing I can’t live without for a while longer so it can wait till I find a reasonable price.  

@Merlin posted:

Is it me or have the price of new trains skyrocketed. I will give you one example here as I look through different websites and check the prices on certain Locomotives. The one set I was looking at “not to buy” but interested on was why the Wizard of Oz train set varied from 400-700 on some sites. Lionel has this listed on their site for 309 retail and usually you can find it for 50-100 cheaper. This is a set that only runs on a transformer and looks like a pretty bad set. Basic steam Engine,Tender,2 box cars and a caboose. It’s not just the set but all the High end diesels and steam locos are going over a 1000-1800. I guess there must be a shortage on trains and some stores are taking advantage. Just my opinion.

Only lionel diesels in multiple covered wagons like F units, PA unit in A-B-A are approaching $1000.00

High end steam unfortunately is over that price mark.

Hence, only unusual steam would I attempt to get new.

@mlavender480 posted:

I refuse to pay inflated prices and as such, I haven’t bought much recently.  There’s nothing I can’t live without for a while longer so it can wait till I find a reasonable price.  

It will be interesting to see if some/any / few prices "correct" over the near term. We know cars and toy trains are different kinda sorta but do any of us think car prices are going down after the "issues" are solved? Choose the ones you blame: covid, labor shortage, chip shortage, supply chain, raw materials, etc. Sheesh!

Fascinating discussion, especially the PW era, to me as an armchair economist, lots of good points, I hope we keep it from spilling into politics.

I was born in '64, so a cusp Boomer/Xer, and I fondly remember my grandfather's O27 gear (which I inherited) and my uncle's O gear at every Thanksgiving and Christmas.

I think supply of these will continue to increase while demand will decrease, especially for engines. But who's going to buy them from estate sales? How many under, say 50, run conventional, and how many will there be a just a decade from now? My kids don't have nostalgia for PW stuff. Not a knock, but I really think the move to remote, smartphone and tablet control along with sound, etc. will ultimately spell the demise for conventional locomotives. I think Lionel figured this out long ago, but I think a wave is coming.

Then there's the service angle. We've all seen an LHS or two close up taking their service department with them. I can do simple fixes and maintenance, but that's it. And what about parts? We've also seen struggles with parts suppliers like Olsen's and North Lima.

Fast forward to 2030. Have a PW 2056 Hudson that needs service like mine did this week? My former LHS service tech is still working on the side, but he could be retired to Florida by then. Much simpler to replace it with a new or gently used equivalent and retire the PW version to a shelf next to my Dad's old 2-6-2 1666 which isn't worth repairing (since I have my grandfather's which still works).

I'm also facing this with the 5-Star General 4-4-0 I inherited. It's not a good runner.  Two skilled repairmen and an LHS owner have told me that's the way they are. I keep it because my mom gave it to my grandpa in 1960 and says so on the box. But who's going to want it after me?

I see Lionel recently cataloged the 5-Star General with Lionchief for $225.  In anticipation of my own grandchildren in the next 2-5 years, I'm going to get one to run with the set cars and dedicate it to the annual Christmas tree loops along with my youngest's Thomas set.

I can only speak for myself, but I have a hard time understanding why PW prices would be going up even in the face of a drop off in supply of modern locomotives.

@Shawn_Chronister posted:

This is hog wash and does not need to be this way. Persons have shut down the country causing most of the issues we are seeing for no reason, but hey keep your head in the sand and have no rights when they are done.

This has nothing to do with politics. People really do get sick and can’t work. You can’t field a baseball team with 5 players. Don’t forget about liability. If you knowingly allow contagious people into work you are as much at fault as Amazon is with the tornado.

I wonder how US rail (toy) prices compare with European prices?  European's seem to have all the advanced features and every layout I see on You Tube is not only stunning to behold...they're huge!

@A. Wells posted:

I wonder how US rail (toy) prices compare with European prices?  European's seem to have all the advanced features and every layout I see on You Tube is not only stunning to behold...they're huge!

This HO locomotive comes out to about $386.00 at the current exchange rate.

Rusty

I have tunnel vision; l only want what l want, and most of that is not mainstream.  I was floored when one of those items was actually recently offered, and l was perched to pounce ...until l saw the price, about a third higher than l thought it should be.  Screech!    I am past the "Mommy, Mommy, l want it NOW!", stage (l hope), so now l was left in the stage of " l hope l live long enough that  a good used one can be found at what l then think is a realistic price.". Turmoil and disappointment in my train buying, demanding patience.

I mean, I see prices going up... but not anymore than anything else. I bought the PE at HobbyTownUSA in San Antonio a few years ago -- a Christmas impulse purchase. The closest set they offer has an animated car (disappearing Hobo) and costs $30 more today than what I purchased which had no animation -- at the same store. The add-on stuff I bought at the store is all the same price today as it was 2 years ago.

I haven't had an electric train since I was a kid in the 1970s.  Until 2 weeks ago, when I bought a train brand-new and direct from Lionel.  $2,395 got me a pair of New Haven Legacy PA diesels (sold as a set, both powered), plus the matching New Haven 18" Passenger car 2-packs (sets 1, 2 & 3).  Also in that order is a LC Universal Remote and a GW-180 transformer.  The whole train will be the red & black color scheme.  Separately, I just spent $894 on Gargraves track.  So I just put $3300 on my credit card to build this train!

Is that a lot of money?  **** yes!  I had shopped around a little before hand, but decided to go with a brand new Lionel train in what seems to be their top-of-the-line products, since I will tunnel through a wall and build a suspended track in the cathedral space above my kitchen table.  The tunnels will bring it into my 2nd-floor bedroom at floor level, where it will run along a wall and then tunnel back out into the kitchen where it will again be up high.  So this train will be part of my house and therefore I wanted the best because I intend to keep it the rest of my life.  I don't know if Lionel is "the best," but they certainly are a standard and were the only O-gauge brand I knew as a kid.

Building this track and running this train will be a big education for me.  Eventually I expect to add another train or two, by which time I will have learned a lot more about the different brands and choices and quality levels and prices --and might try some of them.  Meanwhile I joined this forum and subscribed to the OGR mag as a source of information and community as I begin this project and the long education it will require.

In a few minutes I will drive to the FedEx counter at a Dollar General store 20 minutes away to pick up my new locomotives.  They are a replacement for the set Lionel sent 2 weeks ago that FedEx "delivered" NOT TO ME!!!  Lionel was great about handling that but I'm not taking any chances so logged into FedEx and diverted the package from another (possibly failed) home delivery to that "hold at Counter" location.  The 6 passenger cars are "pre-ordered" and due to ship May 30, 2022, which gives me 5 months to build the track.

With respect to new/modern motive power, I agree that prices being asked for seem absurd. I own a Lionel B&O F3 ABA set that cost me $400 new from a forum sponsor with a brick-and-mortar storefront. The powered A and sounds B came from a set breakup back. This was catalogued back around 2006-07.  I see this ABA set up for auction at $800.  Sure, TMCC with RS5.0 is nice, but this set is technologically outdated.

OTOH, supply of new, more modern motive power seems to be pretty limited. I recall catalogs with many semi-scale TMCC options in the 2000-10 timeframe. Now, there are just a few options with the replacement LC+2 command system. I can't speak for the scale, legacy market, but guess that supply is tighter than 10 years ago.

Take MTH out of the market, even if just for a short period 'til Atlas and/or Lionel replace their production, and there's a shortage of new locomotives. I'm guessing that's what's driving the increases in new motive power.

That said, if you're careful, there are bargains. I just picked up a NOS semi-scale 4-6-2 with TMCC for $150 plus shipping and taxes that I'm going to give to my son-in-law with some WBB O-27 passenger cars (and some other stuff). He can add ERR cruise for $150 if he wants which would make for a really nice engine at $300. Gets them a headstart and makes room for me to replace those shorty cars with the 60' cars I've been looking at.