Just read this article.
Certainly looks better than the Space X Autonomous Battey rail cars. Now you have Autonomous electric trucks driving around instead. Better shot at working.
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Before pushing automated transportation, watch the movie 2001. If the computer system running this is programed wrong, gets hacked, or some sort of EMP occurs, we go from the Jetsons to the Flintstones.
Given the costs of labor, the difficult life of being a long distance trucker, the advances in technology, it would be surprising to me if autonomous trucks aren't a reality sometime soon, at least for the highway part of the journey. The technology for this is already pretty much proven for highway driving.
@Dominic Mazoch posted:Before pushing automated transportation, watch the movie 2001. If the computer system running this is programed wrong, gets hacked, or some sort of EMP occurs, we go from the Jetsons to the Flintstones.
Hate to tell you, but almost all vehicles made in the last almost 50 years will fail with an EMP, including trucks. It will fry everything from ignition control modules, electronic injection systems, abs systems, and in later cars the ECU that controls everything and I suspect the same thing is true with Locomotives built in the last 30 years.
@Dominic Mazoch posted:Before pushing automated transportation, watch the movie 2001. If the computer system running this is programed wrong, gets hacked, or some sort of EMP occurs, we go from the Jetsons to the Flintstones.
Dominic,
There are already automated rail systems in operation with many years, even decades, of safe and successful operation. BART in San Francisco; SkyTrain in Vancouver, BC; and the People Mover here in Detroit, which is the same technology from the same vendor as SkyTrain. All have been running continuously since the 1980's. Millions of miles.
The computers running them have not failed. No software bugs; none hacked (because they're not on the internet, on purpose); no nuclear detonations, so no EMP.
We have not gone from the Jetsons to the Flintstones, and we will not.
Life goes on every day. For nearly 40 years. Safe and dependable, just the way I like it.
Mike
Open the trailer doors please, HAL. 
It seems UP is going all out on new technologies. Still too early to declare victory, but I'm sure the UP will be monitored very closely by supporters and critics alike.
Does anybody notice a little bit of irony here? Develop something to eliminate jobs, yet hiring???
Rusty
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cant wait to see how they do ,in a good old Wisconsin snow or Ice storm
They should be flat-out banned on the highway nation-wide as soon as the 1st snow flake comes down. There is no good coming to humanity by these things. How many autonomous trucks are going to stop and help stranded motorists in an ice storm after they jackknife? ? That's about all we have here in NH any more. Global warming!
Yup, snow. And that is why this technology is being rolled out somewhere else. A lot of technologies take 100 years to mature. LED's were invented in 1964? The first steam engine was a stationary pump at a mine in England in 1704 but railroads as we know it did not exist until the 1800's. It has only been in the last few years that electric cars exceeded the range they had in 1910. Trying new things is par for the course. And most of them fail! Based on the history of invention, it seems the self driving automobile has a long long way to go, but when it becomes functional it will look significantly different than it does today.
-Nathan
I am not sure how I feel about autonomous vehicles but leaving that out, I also would be very careful about making broad statements about how fast technology develops or believing that autononomous vehicles are this brand new spanking technology that has never been tested....yeah, the steam engine as a pump was invented in the early 18th century, the first steamboat was in the 1790s (fulton was not the first), the first steam powered vehicle was in the 1790's as well (Oliver evans and other but the rate of change of technology is much more rapid now, the basic knowledge that underlies everything is huge now. 20 years ago they claimed that silicon based computer chips were going to run into a quantum wall, they haven't yet because understanding changes.
To build an autonomous truck rests on many decades of basic building blocks of understanding, it isn't totally new. They have been working on autonomous vehicles for a long time, that goes back into AI research starting in the 60's. The fundamental pieces were built up over time, robot vision for example, or building self learning systems (what today they call machine learning). The actual control itself is not exotic, being able to control the speed of the truck, being able to steer it, via some sort of interface is not new, it is the rules that guide it, the ones programmed in and the ones that it 'learns' as it drives.
And yeah, I am sure the corporate beancounters are drooling at this one, would love to make it all automated, but there is a lot holding that back. Unless the government indemnifies them (ie gives them blanket protection against lawsuits) or caps the amounts, I don't think this is going to take over anytime soon, there is just too much liability, even the worst finance type will get the stink eye from legal if they proposed anything like that. I suspect there will be rules for these as well from NHTSA, things like conditions, that in snow and ice they may not be able to run (though often sadly regulations seem to happen backwards, tragedy happens then they act).
They are going to apply this as some others have said where they feel it is safe and routine. Automated trucks might actually work better at a terminal where you have a constant flow of trucks (like let's say a dock area), they likely will be able to move more, quicker, than with human drivers (not claiming to be an expert on trucking, just using the example of other things that have been automated). This will allow them to have automation running where it is routine and use human truck drivers where it doesn't make sense (and again, I am not saying I am pro autonomous vehicles, I am wary of them, we already are seeing problems with them in cars with these systems they tout in ads, showing the human occupant of the car watching a video or otherwise not paying attention, which is supposed to be illegal). One of the things to keep in mind is that the trucking industry is having trouble getting drivers, or rather retaining them, the current system requires long hours, lot of days away from home and the pay and benefits aren't too great and it causes huge turnover from what I read. It could be that autonomous trucks could help make it less stressful on the human drivers, so the human ones aren't so stretched out (and that remains to be seen).
Yes, the LED was invented in a lab in the 60's, the LCD I think was the 70's, the OLED after like 10 years of work came into being, it does take time, but the thing is the LED was being used by the late 60's in some applications, the LCD was being used not long after its creation, the OLED the same thing, what usually happens with new technology is it is expensive, it is used in limited things where it makes sense (often military), and then over time it becomes cheaper and more practical. The first LCD tv's were tiny and cost like 20,000 dollars 20 years ago, today an LED backlit 70" tv is like 400 bucks at Walmart. The same will happen with autonomous trucks, will have limited use and then develop, it is how things generally work. My dad worked for Bell Labs in the mid 1950's, and they had a debate about with the repeaters they used on their long distance lines, especially the undersea ones, whether to go with vacuum tubes or the transistor...and at the time they went with tubes. The reason was though Bell Labs invented the transistor and it was already being produced and used commercially, they went with tubes because their performance was well known, they understood all its parameters whereas the transistor was still new enough they didn't. Within a couple of years of that, I doubt they would have used tubes.
Again, not going to get into a discussion about whether this is a good thing or not, that will go into a realm we shouldn't go into here. Just saying blanket statements about technology and how long it takes fail when you look at them, when the steam engine was invented the science of metalurgy and thermodynamics were in their infancy. By the mid 19th century when trains went from being something created by tinkers to a real tool, the science was there and steam engines developed rapidly. With autonomous vehicles the knowledge base behind them is huge, the main area that is evolving is going to be self learning in them and handling non standard situations.
I assume these autonomous trucks will stay in the right hand lanes, strictly adhere to all posted speed limits and not go blasting past me while I'm doing the speed limit.
Rusty
There are a number of YouTube videos that very clearly explain why this great idea has several kinks.
Duel
@Danr posted:There are a number of YouTube videos that very clearly explain why this great idea has several kinks.
Dan,
Enlighten us. Where do we find these on YouTube?
What are the kinks?
Mike
@Rusty Traque posted:I assume these autonomous trucks will stay in the right hand lanes, strictly adhere to all posted speed limits and not go blasting past me while I'm doing the speed limit.
Rusty
In theory thanks to the automated logging on trucks they have these days, it actually is common with over the road truckers. They have the equivalent of black boxes on board that among other things flag them for going over the speed limit and also record driving time. I have noticed that, you see relatively few trucks these days running over the speed limit. Obviously there are trucks that don't have that, but from some of the truck driver videos I have seen on you tube, it is now pretty much standard on long haul rigs (that don't last as long as local hauler trucks).
@Danr posted:There are a number of YouTube videos that very clearly explain why this great idea has several kinks.
I am sure it does, but all technology does. As someone who has a pretty long memory with cars, they had all kinds of quirks that needed to be ironed out. For example, cars didn't have dual braking systems, so if a single brake line went you lost brakes. All kinds of quirky things, like in cold weather having to force open the butterfly valves on an 'automatic choke' car to be able to start it. Automatic transmissions were pretty unreliable when introduced, and the electronic control systems took time to settle down, like when some idiot put the ECU in the engine compartment, not a great choice.
With autonomous driving vehicles there are 2 big issues that I know of:
1)They have to deal with human drivers, who do all kinds of crazy things we all have run into, like turning right from a left hand lane or suddenly stopping and backing down a high
2)They also are not as good as a human driver at dealing with the unexpected (well, on the whole, a lot of human drivers can't even handle normal things, see 1 above, watching people in rain or a light snow, you would think it was a hurricane or something).
All things have kinks, it is why they are going cautious with this. In Australia from what I read autononomous trains are being operated in the regions where if something goes wrong won't kill a bunch of people for example. No technology is without kinks, but I also will add that with the knowledgebase we have today I find amusing those who automatically think new things are dangerous because they haven't been around X years, when they are the product of a long series of things.
@bigkid posted:In theory thanks to the automated logging on trucks they have these days, it actually is common with over the road truckers. They have the equivalent of black boxes on board that among other things flag them for going over the speed limit and also record driving time. I have noticed that, you see relatively few trucks these days running over the speed limit. Obviously there are trucks that don't have that, but from some of the truck driver videos I have seen on you tube, it is now pretty much standard on long haul rigs (that don't last as long as local hauler trucks).
Are you referring to the big corporate long-haul company trucks? I wonder if the "Independent" truckers have such "black boxes", as those seem to be the rigs I've seen going like the hammers of he77?
@Hot Water posted:Are you referring to the big corporate long-haul company trucks? I wonder if the "Independent" truckers have such "black boxes", as those seem to be the rigs I've seen going like the hammers of he77?
I thought it was a requirement of federal law but I could be wrong, it could be it is fleet trucks as you say. Not an expert, but some fleets have speed governors on them from what I just read and the federal government has been toying with speed governors to keep trucks below 65,back and forth for a number of years (for trucks> like 26000 pounds). Most trucks have to have electronic logging devices on them (ELD) by law , that can be used to track driving hours (which is regulated) and speed (which currently isn't).
Just from personal observation on highways around me a lot of the trucks seem to be staying within the speed limit, I don't see what I used to where trucks were moving at 80, 85 on roads like the Turnpike here in NJ.
Navistar the Company partnering with Tu Simple to build these trucks has over Six thousand orders for them.The big problem is the order boards are full for conventional drive units thru 2023 and they are not accepting orders for any trucks till April 2023.
Union Pacific will be lucky to see any till 2026 at the earliest after the big truck purchasers get their orders. Navistar has yet to set pricing on them but tells dealers to expect a 100k price increase.
Gunny
Interesting, so they have the same problem with supply chain, not surprised (among other things, the computer systems that will run it and chips....). I think it is going to take a while before they become common, not to mention overcoming resistance.
@bigkid posted:I have noticed that, you see relatively few trucks these days running over the speed limit.
I live along Interstate 40, and agree that there is less speeding these days, by truck drivers, especially Company truck drivers.
Autonomous trucks will strictly comply with speed limit and lane requirements, because that is how they will have to be programmed. It remains to be seen how they will manage speed in potential aquaplaning or ice conditions, but there must be something programmed into the vehicles, to manage these special conditions.
Programmed to pull over and stop at the first hint of snow would be the best situation. Anything less is a recipe for disaster. Nearly every pile up you see has jack-knived trailers in it. Yes, the motoring public is stupid. The inability of most to grasp the concept of snow tires, coupled with traction control and ani-lock brakes has not served us well. But if the weak link in all this is human error, an autonomous truck trying to grind it's way up a hill in the snow on the interstate is only going to exascerbate what is already a dicey situation, especially whe you add the legions of drivers who will want to pass it.
Thanks to all who pointed out many historical events that shaped the course of mankind. Most took decades, if not centuries to become what we know today. Fiber optics is one example. I have customers in that industry and have witnessed the coming of age first-hand. Even natural gas used to be metered in wooden boxes full of water. I have pictures of them, too. But when the use of nearly all of these inventions or conveniences we now know in modern-day had negative effects, they were on the few that were nearby when something went wrong. When I watch David Muir at night and see that "20 Million Americans in 12 states are now facing severe weather...blah blah" EVERY NIGHT, you can bet that there's thousands of trucks out there at that moment in the midst of it all. Will AI installed in trucks make the public safer??
That's a pipe dream.....
@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:Dan,
Enlighten us. Where do we find these on YouTube?
What are the kinks?
Mike
Try this link. Caution, his language is blunt.
@Danr posted:Try this link. Caution, his language is blunt.
Except that video doesn't cover over the road trucking. Just the (rather dubious IMO) container spud operations.
The requirements for autonomous over the road trucking would be far greater than for rail operations. A railroad is a reasonably controlled right of way, whereas a highway is much less so.
About a week ago I watched an analysis (while not autonomous) of battery vs. diesel trucks. It was a good unbiased (again IMO) video outlining the advantages and disadvantages of each. Unfortunately, it seems to have disappeared from YouTube.
Personally, I'm leery of autonomous vehicles in any form, but I like to see balanced presentations.
Rusty
@endless tracks posted:Programmed to pull over and stop at the first hint of snow would be the best situation. Anything less is a recipe for disaster. Nearly every pile up you see has jack-knived trailers in it. Yes, the motoring public is stupid. The inability of most to grasp the concept of snow tires, coupled with traction control and ani-lock brakes has not served us well. But if the weak link in all this is human error, an autonomous truck trying to grind it's way up a hill in the snow on the interstate is only going to exascerbate what is already a dicey situation, especially whe you add the legions of drivers who will want to pass it.
Thanks to all who pointed out many historical events that shaped the course of mankind. Most took decades, if not centuries to become what we know today. Fiber optics is one example. I have customers in that industry and have witnessed the coming of age first-hand. Even natural gas used to be metered in wooden boxes full of water. I have pictures of them, too. But when the use of nearly all of these inventions or conveniences we now know in modern-day had negative effects, they were on the few that were nearby when something went wrong. When I watch David Muir at night and see that "20 Million Americans in 12 states are now facing severe weather...blah blah" EVERY NIGHT, you can bet that there's thousands of trucks out there at that moment in the midst of it all. Will AI installed in trucks make the public safer??
That's a pipe dream.....
You can believe what you want but since it's already happened on rails, been on rails for many years, and more recently in farmers' fields, it's only a matter of time.
A concept called "truck train" was introduced back in 2014 or so, which made the most sense to me. A lead truck has a driver. Several more behind it, in a line, do not. Instead each of the autonomous followers tracking, and maintaining a safe distance, follow the truck directly in front of them via radar and a radio link. The whole convoy travels like a line of elephants in a row.
To me the fact that there's a least a driver in the lead truck makes this idea more plausible.
Any thoughts?
Mike
yes, plausible if we eventualy have to choke on autonomous trucks under the guise of progress. Just keep these convoys off the road at rush hour, or maybe daylight hours. I can see the "safe distance between them" plugged with ticked-off motorists trying to pass, or even make an exit at an off ramp. Best thing is religate (or legislate even) certain commodities to rail. That would be progress. Here in NH, we not only have to suffer the indignity of seeing literally all our logs shuffled off to subsidized mills in Canada, we have to futher deal with them on the highway to boot. Most of that same interstate is parallel to underutilized rail, or lost rail corridors
@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:A concept called "truck train" was introduced back in 2014 or so, which made the most sense to me. A lead truck has a driver. Several more behind it, in a line, do not. Instead each of the autonomous followers tracking, and maintaining a safe distance, follow the truck directly in front of them via radar and a radio link. The whole convoy travels like a line of elephants in a row.
Mike
Googling "Truck Train," I haven't been able to find anything that fits the above description. Perhaps it never made it past the concept stage.
@endless tracks posted:I can see the "safe distance between them" plugged with ticked-off motorists trying to pass, or even make an exit at an off ramp.
My thoughts exactly. Especially on a two lane highway.
Rusty
@Rusty Traque posted:Googling "Truck Train," I haven't been able to find anything that fits the above description. Perhaps it never made it past the concept stage.
My thoughts exactly. Especially on a two lane highway.
Rusty
Follow this link (it's now called "platooning"):
Truck Platooning | Peloton Technology
You're absolutely correct about adjacent motorists trying to cut in. It amazes me, and I've seen this much too often recently, that people are so impatient that they'll try to cut into the middle of a funeral procession for example. Just put on your turn signal and stick your nose in.
The platooning concept will apparently accommodate cars trying to break in, so it begs the question can the convey still continue safely while dealing with the intrusions? As long as the intruders exit the lane quickly enough the convoy can probably continue. Although it might require a change in state laws to force people to transition into and out of a convoy quickly if they need to do so.
Then again, there are similar rules for driving near funeral processions already on the books. Lately however they don't seem to work ...
Mike
@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:Follow this link (it's now called "platooning"):
Truck Platooning | Peloton Technology
You're absolutely correct about adjacent motorists trying to cut in. It amazes me, and I've seen this much too often recently, that people are so impatient that they'll try to cut into the middle of a funeral procession for example. Just put on your turn signal and stick your nose in.
The platooning concept will apparently accommodate cars trying to break in, so it begs the question can the convey still continue safely while dealing with the intrusions? As long as the intruders exit the lane quickly enough the convoy can probably continue. Although it might require a change in state laws to force people to transition into and out of a convoy quickly if they need to do so.
Then again, there are similar rules for driving near funeral processions already on the books. Lately however they don't seem to work ...
Mike
OK. I watched their little video. Each truck still has a driver with hands on the wheel, so it's not really an autonomous system. It's more like a method of keeping trucks in spaced a convoy, using a "drift"to save on some fuel, subject to the individual drivers needs.
In the video, the second driver says he's dropping out to get fuel while the first truck continues on. There's no indication they'll meet up again later.
Rusty
@Rusty Traque posted:OK. I watched their little video. Each truck still has a driver with hands on the wheel, so it's not really an autonomous system. It's more like a method of keeping trucks in spaced a convoy, using a "drift"to save on some fuel, subject to the individual drivers needs.
In the video, the second driver says he's dropping out to get fuel while the first truck continues on. There's no indication they'll meet up again later.
Rusty
In the beginning, under Truck Train, the whole point of this thing was to have it be autonomous, but under human watch.
It's obviously not there yet, but because Peloton is taking such cautious steps, much more so than others perhaps (Tesla for cars, and TuSimple for trucks), and because of the convoy approach, maybe it's more trustworthy.
Mike
Keep this in mind. Engineers are developing and watching closely and making adjustments. Wait until full production takes place in China! You can just look at almost every product we buy now which most are made there and I see a lot of sub par par products. Safety and QC are secondary there.
@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:You can believe what you want but since it's already happened on rails, been on rails for many years, and more recently in farmers' fields, it's only a matter of time.
A concept called "truck train" was introduced back in 2014 or so, which made the most sense to me. A lead truck has a driver. Several more behind it, in a line, do not. Instead each of the autonomous followers tracking, and maintaining a safe distance, follow the truck directly in front of them via radar and a radio link. The whole convoy travels like a line of elephants in a row.
To me the fact that there's a least a driver in the lead truck makes this idea more plausible.
Any thoughts?
Mike
Houston METRO is looking a "platooning" buses that way
Uncrewd truck. EB I70. Lost breaks between Lincoln Tunnels and Denver. Program to use run away ramp? Or another weapon speeding to the Mile High City?
- I would feel a lot better about this if this was done in sealed lanes for driverless trucks. Get feet wet first.
From the way I understand the operation of autonomous operation, the vehicle relies on sensors to detect positioning of other vehicles, cameras for road signs and detecting humans, Lidar sensors to detect lane markings, distances etc. and ultrasonic wheel sensors to detect nearby vehicles. My wife's Subaru has eyesight which operates with cameras and a form of radar detection. All I know is that when it snows or in fog and heavy rain, it is unable to operate and shuts off. Never mind that the lane correction feature doesn't operate when the road lines and hashmarks are worn or dirty. That alone should keep the localities busy painting new lines every month!
An elevated track could be built between the two locations.
Andrew
Autonomous trucking has been done Australia. Mining, and long haul.
@Dominic Mazoch posted:
- I would feel a lot better about this if this was done in sealed lanes for driverless trucks. Get feet wet first.
@falconservice posted:An elevated track could be built between the two locations.
Andrew
Who is going to pay for all of this, the trucking companies or John Q. Public?
@Mellow Hudson Mike posted:Dominic,
There are already automated rail systems in operation with many years, even decades, of safe and successful operation. BART in San Francisco; SkyTrain in Vancouver, BC; and the People Mover here in Detroit, which is the same technology from the same vendor as SkyTrain. All have been running continuously since the 1980's. Millions of miles.
The computers running them have not failed. No software bugs; none hacked (because they're not on the internet, on purpose); no nuclear detonations, so no EMP.
We have not gone from the Jetsons to the Flintstones, and we will not.
Life goes on every day. For nearly 40 years. Safe and dependable, just the way I like it.
Mike
Mellow, I suggest that you Google for autonomous transit system wrecks and shutdowns due to "glitches". There have been lots and lots of them during the past 40 years. Perhaps the most memorable being the 2009 wreck on DC's Metro system:
June_2009_Washington_Metro_train_collision
Do some digging and you'll find lots more.
There is no Federal requirement for speed limiters or governors on commercial trucks.
The reason that so many big trucking companies have adopted them is simple - MONEY. It also does not require a mechanical governor under the hood. All that is required is a to adjust a setting in the ECM computer.
By speed limiting their fleet, they do two things:
- Save on fuel. When you run millions of miles per year, gaining even a tenth of a mile per gallon fleet-wide yields a huge savings on fuel.
- Sets a consistent overall fleet speed. By setting a maximum speed in the computer, it establishes a fleet-wide and consistent delivery speed for the entire fleet. Transit and delivery times can be more accurately scheduled.
If/when these autonomous trucks become a reality, I don’t think you will see them rolling along at more than 70 MPH and probably a bit less.
It’s all in the numbers - follow the money.
