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Another issue.  You will lose power in the wires over a long distance.  Why?  Resistance.

Plus suppose your railroad is electrified.  Power comes off an iffy grid.  Then in the middle of winter a polar vortex ice storm comes into the area. Now you will be without power for days, or without power for a while with rolling blackouts.  Do not laugh.  Texas during Ice Storm Uri.

There are freight trains carrying iron ore that operate above the arctic circle in Sweden & Norway that operate in low temperature environments. So, it must be possible to design electric trains to operate in adverse conditions that you seem to be worried about.

The axle load of these IORE locomotives are 30 metric tonnes, close to the axle loading of a modern North American Diesel Electric locomotives, estimated to be around 33 metric tonnes.

In the interest of full disclosure , I like these IORE electric locomotives as I used to own a pair in HO-Scale.

These are just my opinion,

Naveen Rajan

Last edited by naveenrajan

I’ll chime in from another perspective.  If you want to pay for electrification and help solve some of the energy use concerns, let’s find a way to increase rail traffic — substantially!  The railroads would be able pay for such if their revenue stream were to increase so that they had funds to invest in infrastructure.  There have been several discussions on this forum about shortages of various items said to be caused in part, by lack of trucks and truckers???  Yet as a country, isn’t much of our rail infrastructure underutilized?  And that’s not even considering all of the abandoned Right of Way that we’ve let slip away (and maybe can once again be utilized)?  

How does this help from an energy standpoint?  Don’t trains use less fuel per cargo mile than trucks?  Don’t Trains use less fuel per people mile than cars?  And if that’s the case, doesn’t that also reduce the pollution effects?  It could also lessen the burden on our road system.  Just before the pandemic, we were traveling west to Harrisburg, PA on interstate 78 and were caught in the all too frequent traffic jam.  For whatever reason, it was jammed in both directions for several miles.  That allowed us to do a quick tally of trucks and cars and realized that day, we (cars) were outnumbered 3.5 to 1 by trucks - that’s crazy.  I’m not sure how much trucks pay in taxes, but they do not have the direct cost of maintaining the road as do rail companies maintaining its own ‘road.’  Just think of the amount of fuel was used sitting there idling?  How efficient is that scenario?  Do we really need more truckers or is there another way?

It would be great to pull together some sort of think tank of ‘smart people’ to consider a full transportation plan.  Maybe they could suggest the development of new high speed rail loading and unloading technology that would make the transport of containers to end facilities and other goods more competitive as well.  Yes, I realize that rail is most efficient for bulk material/deliveries and less so for smaller loads, but there has got to be some better combo of rail/truck/air/water for both big stuff and little stuff.  And yes, some sacrifice on our part would be necessary too - for instance, I really don’t need next-day or even same day delivery for most things I order online.

As an aside, I generally avoid visiting US cities as I don’t enjoy the driving to and through them and certainly, parking is a chore.  It would be nice to have high speed passenger rail, both local and distance, to get car traffic off the roads and allow for more pleasurable trips.

OK - I know I’m dreaming so don’t hold that against me.  I just wanted to offer that there are many perspectives, one of which is to find a way to better use a rail infrastructure that was once one of the best in the world.

Bob

PS. Not sure if this was answered elsewhere, but WABTEC is an acronym for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies which specializes in tech for rail and transit.

@naveenrajan posted:

There are freight trains carrying iron ore that operate above the arctic circle in Sweden & Norway that operate in low temperature environments. So, it must be possible to design electric trains to operate in adverse conditions that you seem to be worried about.

The axle load of these IORE locomotives are 30 metric tonnes, close to the axle loading of a modern North American Diesel Electric locomotives, estimated to be around 33 metric tonnes.

In the interest of full disclosure , I like these IORE electric locomotives as I used to own a pair in HO-Scale.

These are just my opinion,

Naveen Rajan

Oh, electric trains can run in cold weather.  Provided there is electric power to put into the overhead.  Remember last January, the Texas Triangle lost ALL power.

Oh, electric trains can run in cold weather.  Provided there is electric power to put into the overhead.  Remember last January, the Texas Triangle lost ALL power.

So, based on the example you referenced, I reckon that a well-designed electric grid (not just trains) of adequate capacity should be able to provide the power needs of fully-electric trains as in Norway, Sweden or Russia.

These are just my opinion,

Naveen Rajan

@Hot Water posted:

You REALLY expect such "adequate capacity" in the U.S.????

No, I don't expect it to be possible or even necessary.

From following this thread I understand that there is no business need to invest heavily in electrification. I don't support innovating just for innovating. Diesel electric locomotives are good enough, cost-effective, environmentally-friendly enough to make it harder to justify any anticipated incremental benefit by undertaking large scale electrification.

But I also believe that there isn't anything technical, that is unique to US environments, be it loading gauge clearances, axle load limits or weather that would make electric trains unsuitable on US railroads.

These are just my opinion,

Naveen Rajan

Fossil fuels are finite - there's only so much coal and oil, so no matter what the price is going to go up and up as the coal and oil closest to the surface and easiest to get to runs out and it takes more effort - and more fuel - to extract them. Solar power is virtually unlimited by comparison. However, if we wait to build the electric/solar system that we need until fossil fuels are very expensive, we might find we can't afford to do it then.

Change always happens. In the 1860s, railroads ran on wood. By the 1900s, coal and later oil was burned. By the 1960s, almost all locomotives used diesel fuel. Perhaps in the future, the only viable way to run trains will be by some form of electrification.

@Hot Water posted:

You REALLY expect such "adequate capacity" in the U.S.????

Now that Gates and company are getting into nuclear, possibly.   That means crony capitalism will fuel the the nuke green revolution.

Understand that in my neck of the woods electricity prices are skyrocketing which means higher bills for less "juice power".  

Hudson5432 made an interesting point on the relative efficiency of diesel-electric power versus electric power and the reasons for that.  I'm sure your guys at EMD did the same math as his at GE but what's interesting to me is the efficiency logic that seems to be the current rage in power generation.    Not too far from me are nuke plants but seemingly springing up everywhere are small natural gas fired plants. 

Years ago electrics were often touted as the most "efficient" of motive power and most burbs generated their own municipal power.   Now the diesel electric efficiency leads electric motive power and we're going  back to small scale local electric generation. 

All mainline trains within the US are electric right now.  They just cary the electric generator along with them.  The power to the wheels is electric - AC or DC.

I think that it may be possible to build an all electric railroad infrastructure without building overhead lines everywhere if battery power storage and life becomes better.  I could see a day where all railroad engines are battery powered.  The batteries could be recharged in yards or at selected locations along the line from 3rd rail pickups.  Maybe a railroad would need a recharging station every 200 miles or so. The train wouldn't have to stop to recharge because it could pickup power from a 3rd rail or an overhead line that might be only 10 miles long.  

There are big assumptions with this.  1.  Battery life and power is better than today.  I think that battery tech will evolve and be much better in the next 10 years.   2.  A battery can be recharged in a reasonably short time.  This would mean that an engine could recharge in about 20 minutes and have enough energy to go another 200 miles.  3.  The recharging power is available from solar, the grid, or another source.  4.  The savings in fuel and repairing diesel engines would justify the costs to convert the system and buy new battery engines.  

The downside to building all electric infrastructure is that you have to have overhead wires or a 3rd rail (NYC) everywhere.  If you only had to build a limited infrastructure to recharge battery powered engines every 200 miles with out stopping the train, then it might work.

I have been totally amazed at the changes I have seen in my lifetime:  prop planes to jets, Alan Shepard in a risky sub-orbit rocket ride to men on the moon and space tourism, cell phones, the internet, the OGR forum, Amazon instant delivery, the list is endless. None of us knows what will be next.  The world is very exciting.  NH Joe

There are big assumptions with this.  1.  Battery life and power is better than today.  I think that battery tech will evolve and be much better in the next 10 years.   2.  A battery can be recharged in a reasonably short time.  This would mean that an engine could recharge in about 20 minutes and have enough energy to go another 200 miles.  3.  The recharging power is available from solar, the grid, or another source.  4.  The savings in fuel and repairing diesel engines would justify the costs to convert the system and buy new battery engines. 

Battery powered locomotives aren't going to happen anytime soon - and this isn't a political reason (on the surface).

The problem with any battery is that it's energy density is extremely low compared to diesel gasoline

     Li-ion is around 250 Wh/kg (Watt-hours per Kilogram)

    Diesel gasoline is around 12,700 Wh/kg

Therefore, to get the same performance characteristics (for example can pull same amount of x pounds of load for same time t in same distance d), the battery needs to be over 50 times larger. Obviously, you don't want the weight of your engine to increase that much so you're left with 1/8 the energy to keep engine the same weight.

Now, I don't want to sound like a pessimist when I say anytime soon - very good (and well funded) research is taking place aimed at increasing energy density of batteries. Most recently, a well performing solid state Li-ion battery has been in the news that doubles the current energy density (liquid electrolyte) Li-ion battery; no word on what the manufacturing cost is. However, this is still much lower than Diesel gasoline's energy density. We have a long ways to go.

The other side of the conversation is the cost of Lithium batteries from mining them to refining them. THIS is where politics start and where I stop .


There are big assumptions with this.  1.  Battery life and power is better than today.  I think that battery tech will evolve and be much better in the next 10 years.   2.  A battery can be recharged in a reasonably short time.  This would mean that an engine could recharge in about 20 minutes and have enough energy to go another 200 miles.  

As you've stated, those are big assumptions.  And assumptions are the key word.  Right now, I haven't seen any mention of how long it takes to charge the FLXDrive battery locomotive or what kind of ground support it will require.  Chicago's Metra is reported to be looking into battery locomotives.  We'll have to wait and see how that turns out, but I'm willing to bet the prototypes will have a diesel tagging along.  After all, it will have to not only move a nine-car bilevel train in a stop and go manner, but supply HEP power for lights, heat and AC.

I'm all for research and experimentation.  That's how things move forward.  However, it's too soon to hail solutions.  Remember GE's Hybrid locomotive of 2007?  That was supposed to be "the" solution in some minds, now I think it's sitting in GE's backlot.

3.  The recharging power is available from solar, the grid, or another source.  

Like a diesel generator???   BTW, The "grid" is supplied by fossil fuel power along with wind, solar, nuclear and hydro.

4.  The savings in fuel and repairing diesel engines would justify the costs to convert the system and buy new battery engines.

Repairs would still be required, traction motors, wheels, other wear and tear.  Even replacing a shorted battery in the bundle could rival the cost of a diesel repair when factoring in the cost of keeping a replacement battery inventory.  Then there's disposition/recycling of end-of-life batteries.

I have been totally amazed at the changes I have seen in my lifetime:  prop planes to jets, Alan Shepard in a risky sub-orbit rocket ride to men on the moon and space tourism, cell phones, the internet, the OGR forum, Amazon instant delivery, the list is endless. None of us knows what will be next.  The world is very exciting.  NH Joe

I've seen the same things in my life.  I also remember when there were NO man made satellites in orbit and the ripple that ran through the country when Sputnik was launched.  All I can say is the future looked better on TV.

Rusty

Rusty,

This might get deleted, but you have hit one nail on the head.  Does the US really have the will and the talent to be a true innovator anymore?  Kennedy said we would put a man on the moon and it happened in less than 10 years with archaic technology.  We have been trying to get back to the moon for a lot longer than that.  The US had no plan post space shuttle which in of itself was a 60's era program that finally came to fruition in 1982.  I am being cynical, but I think we have gotten too bogged down in partisanship over nation to even achieve the great accomplishments of our past.  The rail industry hasn't seen any real monumental change in technology since the steam to diesel transition.  The only real accomplishment of the rail industry in the last 80 years could logically be argued to be political gains in deregulation and mergers for efficiency.  Hardly the exciting future you see in old issues of "Popular Science".   

Having said that, I will take my pessimism elsewhere and go back to enjoying my trains. 

My point is that the technology already exists. It shouldn’t be that hard to replicate it.

Designing it - not too difficult.

In the US, the PRR had the most coherent electrification plan. It would be easy to use their design concepts and apply to routes all over the US.

The difference (from the 1930s to 2020s) is that now procurement of materials, construction time and cost, and safety standards have increase which makes it much harder to build.

The electrification of trains is done today. Germany has 12,500 miles of electrified track. It was done in a cost efficient manner. They have a climate very much like we have in the northern part of the U. S.  

I don’t see any reason we couldn’t replicate what is already done here.

As of 2014, the US had 13 times that number of track miles, most of which carried much heavier tonnage.

@Hot Water posted:

The German government PAID for the whole thing!!!!!!

Let's not forget, some of the later PRR electrification projects were part of the FDR's "New Deal". Many of the workers hired to do the electrification project were RR workers who were laid-off from the depression.

I can't post the picture because of OGR's copyright rules, but I have a picture of PRR 4800 next to a sign that reads "PENNSYLVANIA ELECTRIFICATION - FEDERAL WORK PROJECT No. 2381"

Nearly all nations that have extensive electric rail networks got that way because their existing rail infrastructure was totally destroyed during WWII or because the countries were starting from scratch.  It was just as easy to build electric during the post war period as to rebuild pre war steam railroads.  This includes nearly all European railroads.  The Swiss designed electric railroads from the start because they had abundant hydro-electric power and many long tunnels.  Only the British railroads were not totally destroyed.  British Railways was running steam long after most other European nations had electrified.  

China and Russia have extensive electric railways because they started from scratch post WWII and the government owns everything.  It is easy to build a railway when you don't have to pay citizens for their land, and the railroad doesn't need to make a profit, etc.

As I said in my post above, I think that there will be a new battery or other technology that will provide clean energy to all forms of transportation.  I saw a TV program where large cargo ships were being designed with sails.  That is really back to the future.  Sailing ships augmented by diesel power?  That is back to the days of the China Clippers.  I don't see sails on trains, however.  

I think that the future is going to be very exciting and that there will be tremendous change during the next 50 years.  NH Joe

All mainline trains within the US are electric right now.  They just cary the electric generator along with them.  The power to the wheels is electric - AC or DC.

I think that it may be possible to build an all electric railroad infrastructure without building overhead lines everywhere if battery power storage and life becomes better.  I could see a day where all railroad engines are battery powered.  The batteries could be recharged in yards or at selected locations along the line from 3rd rail pickups.  Maybe a railroad would need a recharging station every 200 miles or so. The train wouldn't have to stop to recharge because it could pickup power from a 3rd rail or an overhead line that might be only 10 miles long.  

There are big assumptions with this.  1.  Battery life and power is better than today.  I think that battery tech will evolve and be much better in the next 10 years.   2.  A battery can be recharged in a reasonably short time.  This would mean that an engine could recharge in about 20 minutes and have enough energy to go another 200 miles.  3.  The recharging power is available from solar, the grid, or another source.  4.  The savings in fuel and repairing diesel engines would justify the costs to convert the system and buy new battery engines.  

The downside to building all electric infrastructure is that you have to have overhead wires or a 3rd rail (NYC) everywhere.  If you only had to build a limited infrastructure to recharge battery powered engines every 200 miles with out stopping the train, then it might work.........

NH Joe

While this concept could be viable, recharging batteries every so many miles is effectively a step back in time to the days of the “tank towns” located every 100 miles along the mainline to refill the water tenders behind steam engines. A variation on this approach might be the use of battery tenders coupled immediately adjacent to the locomotives that could be dropped off and replaced periodically with other tenders loaded with fresh batteries. This could stretch the distance between stops. The energy density issue is not constrained by the physical space occupied by the present day prime movers and diesel tanks. An operational strategy would be necessary to quickly switch out/exchange battery tenders.

Much of this discussion here has been all or nothing.  This issue should be approached on an evolutionary basis based upon local circumstances and feasibility (all considering comprehensive cost/benefit assessments).  NH Joe’s idea lends itself to evolutionary or transitional approaches.

Pat B.

@prrjim posted:

The PRR studied continuing electrification from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh 2 times, and I think Conrail did once, and each time, the cost could not be justified.  

As for green power, you have to remember that some places do not have great water flows to generate hydroelectric, the wind does not always blow, and here in the north, there is no sunshine about 14 hours a day in the winter. 

We have huge coal reserves that what has identified to date, will at least 500  years.    We have huge natural gas and oil reserves.     Why can't we use the resources we have until a real viable alternative becomes available.

It isn't a matter of running out of oil or gas, it is a matter of what are the real consequences of using any form of energy. Coal mining can be really environmentally damaging (runoff from spoils into rivers, toxic chemicals leached, and of course in burning it). Oil and gas have their own issues (oil drilling and gas production release methane, fracking with potential chemical pollution, etc), Hydro power dams can cause issues. Solar panel production produces pollution (the plastics used for example), nuclear power has its own issues. If oil and gas are causing the environment to go south (and I am using it as a hypothetical here) and something like the recent tornadoes and droughts in the west are a sign of that (they may or may not be), then the cost of staying with coal, oil and gas may be huge. Cost benefit analysis applies here, if global climate change is playing out the way many believe, then the cost in terms of so many things will be huge. Hydrogen seems like a great thing, but right now it is really costly to produce it.

To get back tp Paige's original question, the answer is as others have said, that electrification of railroads is a complex issue. It requires a pretty massive infrastructure, to bring the power to the tracks (most commonly overhead, 3rd rail tends to be more commuter rail with relatively short runs, at least here in the US). It seems like an ideal solution to certain issues, like pollution, it is easier control pollution via relatively few number of generating stations then it is thousands or millions of vehicles. Likewise (in theory) a power grid is more easily switched over to new power sources, a new nuclear power station coming online has to be attached to the grid, but doesn't require special work to it.

The problems with electric?

-The cost of building it, standard railroad is pretty much trackwork and roadbed (already there), and signaling and track control systems. Electrical, you are building out a distribution system and that isn't cheap, substations, the overhead catenary (ah, if Tesla had only been able to achieve his dream of broadcasting power!). Then there is maintenance of that.  We have a railroad industry that if what I read in trains is true, can't pick up the opportunity with the shortage of truck transport/drivers, because of what PSR has wrought on the industry, can you imagine the beancounters if you said you wanted to electrify the whole network?

-Reliability of power distribution in areas like the mountains and areas subject to harsh weather

-The US power grid is a mess, quite frankly (I have knowledge of that space in terms of power futures trading). We don't have a national grid, it is a series of regional grids that have limited interconnection, in at least one case, Texas, they are their own grid, no links. To make this work would require a national grid, that would require a lot of work. One of the reasons electrical engines are used in Europe is because Europe has pretty much a connected grid, the other reason is most of the railroads are government run and they made the effort to run on electric power a long ago.

To get this cleaned up would require a large commitment from the government, the power companies are not going to do this on their own, the same way they wouldn't wire rural areas for electric power without government paying for it.  if we are heading for an electric future, which looks to be increasingly likely (the global car industry is basically phasing back conventional cars and are in fierce competition to dominate this space), then likely this will need to be done anyway, but that is another point.

The short form answer is that the private railroad companies incentivize different things and they may not see things the way others might, companies are notorious for sacrificing the long term for short term gain for example. I don't know what the future will hold, in theory if the economy goes electric for most things (big if), then a relatively small number of diesel engines will not be as much of an issue, no way to know.

@Dick Malon posted:

The simple answer is that the cost of the installation of the overhead wires, supports, substations and all the other infrastructure required is so expensive that it can only be justified based on economics for very high density routes.  And the maintenance of such a system is expensive also.  Thus the NE corridor has been it.  There have been some other small installations, usually for "captured traffic" such as from coal mine to power plant but nor real additional freight railroad installations.  Hard to beat a Diesel engine where the power plant is carried along to power the electric motors.

Didn't the great northern have large stretches that were electric? Not an expert on that system, but I seem to recall they did up in washington state and oregon.

@RoyBoy posted:

I see some problems with nuclear power that have yet to be solved:

1. accidents, like Chernobyl and Japan and three mile island

2. "green" disposal of spent fuel

3. public fear of the above

Modern nuclear power plants have answered a lot of the questions

@Dieselbob posted:

One of the areas that is seldom if EVER looked at in this debate is the unintended consequences.  Say we are able to make 75% of our power with renewable energy, but still need the fossil fuels for the other 25%.  As these fossil fuels fall out of favor, the cost to use them and the infrastructure needed to make use of them will become far more expensive or will become economically nonviable  and will disappear.  If we get this pipe dreams of all electric cars, the remaining applications that DEMAND fossil fuels (farm machinery, construction equipment, large trucks, diesel locomotives, you name it will get screwed over big time because as the fuel industry shrinks, the fuel will become much more expensive and harder to source.   How much will your box of cornflakes cost if the diesel fuel that runs the farmer's combine costs $15.00 a gallon?  I know if you are trying to save the world little details like that don't matter, but in the REAL world, it's another way in which this renewable fuel push is going to drive the cost of living up for EVERYONE, and make us all a lot poorer.

That assumes that they will still be using fossil fuels, to argue they will always need it assumes no change in the future. One of the efforts underway as at least a stopgap that may pay off is creating oil biologically, by reprogramming algae to create oil or gasoline. It isn't a total pipe dream, they have done it in the lab, and that has the advantage it is carbon neutral, since the CO2 generated in burning the oil would have basically come from the atmosphere, not plants and animals that died 100 million years ago.

The other thing to think about, since we are playing hypotheticals here, is if the droughts and storms were are seeing are caused by climate change (again, a hypothetical),. and looking at the huge droughts we are seeing out west, that is causing issues with getting water from the Colorado river for irrigation, how much will food cost if crops are destroyed due to drought, freezes and other weird weather events happening more and more?

The answer with this does come down to cost/benefit, and it has to be done on a macro level, not micro, that is part of the problem. With electric engines, the rail companies look at a micro level, they see the cost of converting and realize economically it makes no sense, and you can't blame them (same way that a true national grid is beyond the reach of current power companies). On the other hand, if you weigh up the costs of climate change if it plays out as is being projected (and again, this is a hypothetical, please no rants on climate change either way), what will that cost be if we keep the current fossil fuel economy going as it is? How much will it cost if we have to rebuild after things like the recent tornadoes in the midwest, the freeze in texas, the wildfires in California, if reservoirs run dry, if irrigation fails due to no water?

People dependent on the fossil fuel industry will say what about the cost to people's livelyhood if it goes away, given how big it is, and that is a valid question. There will be huge impact there if we can't transition those jobs into ones in the 'new era' and it is valid. On the other hand, if the cost of staying on fossil fuels is catastrophic on the macro scale, then transitioning the fossil fuel industry has to be taken into account in the plans.

And yes, on a macro scale this will mean something we have a hard time with, and that is realizing that private industry can't handle it and market forces (if climate change is really happening the way many believe) are too slow and too regressive to deal with it and it is going to take both private industry and yes, the government.  This has been true in the past with other issues, for example, rural areas having access to power and now things like broadband internet, private industry wouldn't do it, the government stepped in to make it feasible.

Oh, electric trains can run in cold weather.  Provided there is electric power to put into the overhead.  Remember last January, the Texas Triangle lost ALL power.

Yep, and you know why?

1)There were warning reports for years that the texas grid was vulnerable to extremes of weather. Texas faced weather that would be routine in colder parts of the country (think about it,Minnesota has electric power, they don't have problems when it is -20) yet their grid fell apart. why? Texas prides itself on cut rate power, but there was a cost to it, the grid operators didn't spend the money to make it weatherproof.  Generating stations had trouble, and natural gas pipelines stopped operating because valves froze.

2)Texas grid is totally disconnected to sources outside the state. In the rest of the country, power grids are regional, so if local generating power is lost they can pick it up from the regional grid. Texas did this a long time ago as a decision to avoid regulation, and like most decisions, it ends up having unforseen costs.

no solar, no wind... go fusion or look to the periodic table ...element 115 and beyond

Yeah, that would be ideal, but fusion has been '30 years out' since the 1950's, and even recent efforts, that look promising, are decades away from being even minimally usable. For fusion to work, it needs to generate something like 25 times the power it takes to make the reaction work. Current fusion reactions take a lot more energy than they put out, and the most recent reactors being built might break even, another project is supposed to be like 5x that will go online in 10 years or so.

@Rule292 posted:

More conjecture, since our rich uncle is broke so there isn't any money to string wires or build subs (but I think that John Q is going to be paying for Microsoft "sponsored" sodium cooled nuke plants from what I read elsewhere).

Would that cost equation change if the generation of electricity were more inexpensive or free?  I understand the immense fixed costs of electrification but what if we were to have electrified freight corridors the way we have the NEC... i.e electrified transcons or north/south electrified lanes?

My older brother used to laugh and tell me that in the 1950s or 1960's there was a GE ad that said "someday electricity will be so cheap that you won't even need to have an electric meter on your house".

Again, no denying the cost factor but what if... the commercial grid was able to power homes, EVs and railroads.

They are building subs, most recent defense bill is almost 800 billion dollars, defense spending is not exactly going away. And that is another thing to think of with macro costs if climate change is playing out the way they think, political instability and refugees are going to increase a lot if it plays out, how much will we need to spend on defense at that point? (and it is an open ended question, note I am not saying one way or the other).

@bigkid posted:

They are building subs, most recent defense bill is almost 800 billion dollars, defense spending is not exactly going away. And that is another thing to think of with macro costs if climate change is playing out the way they think, political instability and refugees are going to increase a lot if it plays out, how much will we need to spend on defense at that point? (and it is an open ended question, note I am not saying one way or the other).

I think he meant substations, not submarines

@bigkid posted:

It isn't a matter of running out of oil or gas, it is a matter of what are the real consequences of using any form of energy. Coal mining can be really environmentally damaging (runoff from spoils into rivers, toxic chemicals leached, and of course in burning it). Oil and gas have their own issues (oil drilling and gas production release methane, fracking with potential chemical pollution, etc), Hydro power dams can cause issues. Solar panel production produces pollution (the plastics used for example), nuclear power has its own issues. If oil and gas are causing the environment to go south (and I am using it as a hypothetical here) and something like the recent tornadoes and droughts in the west are a sign of that (they may or may not be), then the cost of staying with coal, oil and gas may be huge. Cost benefit analysis applies here, if global climate change is playing out the way many believe, then the cost in terms of so many things will be huge. Hydrogen seems like a great thing, but right now it is really costly to produce it.

The largest issue with renewables such as solar and wind is not the environmental hazards of creating them - It's that we cannot control them - they either produce too much or too little electricity.

When it is too much, the excess electricity is either burned off or stored (and we do not have enough grid-sized storage yet).

When it is too little, we have to fall back on fossil fuel supplies to cover the difference. What complicates this is that you can't just turn a coal or gas plants on instantaneously. It can take up to 3 hours for one to come online. It also takes energy to make energy (have to put put a lot of initial power into these plants to turn them on to the point where they can put power out).

So we've established that renewables are variable generation and we need fossil fuel plants to cover the difference, guess what else is variable: energy demand.

Think about your daily life - are you constantly using the same amount of electricity throughout the day? No.

If you work a 9-5 then you most likely aren't running your AC/Heat/Washer/Dryer until the evening. So there is a lull in power demand during the morning/afternoon then a spike at night.

The good thing about coal and gas is that if you need more power, you "open the throttle" more (and this has all been automated since the early days of the grid - previously through dynamos and now through control systems).

Let's say there is enough a solar field in your local grid with enough capacity to cover the load in the middle of the day - suddenly it get's cloudy for about 15 minutes and output goes down. The power company has to find a way to make up the difference (it's unacceptable to have supply less than load or A. power co. would be fined and B. customers would not be happy). By the time a coal or gas plant is brought online, the cloud will have moved on.

At the current moment, there is not that much renewables to the point where this is an issue, we can move power throughout the grid to make up the difference. But what happens when we move heavily to wind and solar - what if the wind isn't blowing hard enough and there is a big storm that is covering the large solar fields?

This is why we will be dependent on fuels until grid sized energy storage can be of sufficient capacity. When we reach a good storage capacity, then we can "bank" power for these calm & cloudy days. Even then, we will still need a fossil fuel as a back up in the event that we drain the storage before the clouds clear and winds pick up.

@Prr7688 posted:

The largest issue with renewables such as solar and wind is not the environmental hazards of creating them - It's that we cannot control them - they either produce too much or too little electricity.

When it is too much, the excess electricity is either burned off or stored (and we do not have enough grid-sized storage yet).

When it is too little, we have to fall back on fossil fuel supplies to cover the difference. What complicates this is that you can't just turn a coal or gas plants on instantaneously. It can take up to 3 hours for one to come online. It also takes energy to make energy (have to put put a lot of initial power into these plants to turn them on to the point where they can put power out).

So we've established that renewables are variable generation and we need fossil fuel plants to cover the difference, guess what else is variable: energy demand.

Think about your daily life - are you constantly using the same amount of electricity throughout the day? No.

If you work a 9-5 then you most likely aren't running your AC/Heat/Washer/Dryer until the evening. So there is a lull in power demand during the morning/afternoon then a spike at night.

The good thing about coal and gas is that if you need more power, you "open the throttle" more (and this has all been automated since the early days of the grid - previously through dynamos and now through control systems).

Let's say there is enough a solar field in your local grid with enough capacity to cover the load in the middle of the day - suddenly it get's cloudy for about 15 minutes and output goes down. The power company has to find a way to make up the difference (it's unacceptable to have supply less than load or A. power co. would be fined and B. customers would not be happy). By the time a coal or gas plant is brought online, the cloud will have moved on.

At the current moment, there is not that much renewables to the point where this is an issue, we can move power throughout the grid to make up the difference. But what happens when we move heavily to wind and solar - what if the wind isn't blowing hard enough and there is a big storm that is covering the large solar fields?

This is why we will be dependent on fuels until grid sized energy storage can be of sufficient capacity. When we reach a good storage capacity, then we can "bank" power for these calm & cloudy days. Even then, we will still need a fossil fuel as a back up in the event that we drain the storage before the clouds clear and winds pick up.

That is a very reasonable analysis and not disagreeing at all.Fossil fuels are here for the somewhat medium term, unless someone wants to try a manhattan project. Personally I think they need to look at Nuclear power, especially the concept of 'small nuclear' that doesn't take 20 years to build. Nuclear waste is a problem, but modern plants produce a fraction of what older ones did. There are ways to reprocess spent fuel, but not sure how effective that is. One benefit of modern plants is the waste product is not weaponizable as a nuclear bomb (for dirty bombs, yes). They still need to figure out a way how to dispose of it, a lot of spent fuel is sitting at nuclear power plants, which is not good.

My concern with nuclear power is if we are going to go down that route, we need to have strong regulation and not assume the industry will do it out of 'self preservation'.  Given what we all know about corporate beancounters, there is just too much pressure to cut corners, to replace experienced workers with ones that are cheaper , or not maintaining backup systems, or plants constructed with the wrong materials, that is my concern. Given the risk around nuclear power, do you trust management pressured by hedge funds and the like to do the right thing?

The other thing (that yes, is on topic) is that electrified railroading would require a national power grid, as does green energy as a whole. When Texas was blacked out because their power generating plants were offline (ironically, despite claims to the contrary, solar plants and wind plants were producing) they couldn't get power from outside, at the time Texas needed power other places had excess they could have sold. With Solar power we need storage, there is no doubt about it, given the nature of it (unless as some have proposed, we have solar power satellites that beam energy back to the earth, that brings all kind of issues with it, for obvious reasons).

Coal is going to continue to die I suspect, the number of coal fired plants is declining rapidly, it is likely that Coal's basis in power generation will likely be in single digits by the end of 2022. Natural gas is cheaper and gas fired plants last longer and require less maintenance, it is almost like comparing a steam engine to a diesel.

Only other thing I see on the horizon that may work with current infrastructure is synthetic gasoline and oil made from algae using modified photosynthesis, that would be a carbon neutral framework that could use the existing infrastructure. It is feasible, but is it practical? Remains to be seen. So Diesel engines could be running diesel fuel made by algae (one advantage to algae production? It thrives on the waste at sewage treatment plants and helps "clean it up").

Last edited by bigkid

One other issue nobody is talking about:  Somebody woth an evil mind could bring the system down with a terrorist act.

That could happen with any open system in any place in the world at any time.  Another non-issue.  It would be more effective to hack the existing networks that control traffic flow on the railroads.

"Look at me!  I just hacked the power grid to bring down the electric system for the railroads and all the trains stopped!" 

If you remember you high school physics, energy cannot be created or destroyed.  If you convert the various propulsion systems energy used to watts or BTU's, for a given load over a given distance, the energy cost will be the same.  Gas, propane, battery, diesel fuel,  coal or natural gas burned in a power plant to run the grid and change electric car batteries or run an electric railroad, the net energy savings is zero.  The waste occurs in all those cars and trucks stuck in traffic, idling or going slow, below their optimum fuel use range.  The energy expended to move a double stack of 75 cars, 150 full loaded 40 ton trailers over a given distance will be the same as 150 tractor/single trailers doing the job over the same distance, or tractor/double trailers over the same distance, within an acceptable range of difference that makes true energy savings a hard thing to calculate honestly without global warming hype and politics.  That is energy, not fuel consumption to make that energy, and there too, a diesel engine making 500HP or an electric motor burning 500HP of energy that came from burning fuel to make that 500HP worth of electricity, net savings, zero(nuke plants, daytime good weather solar, or windmills when the wind is blowing notwithstanding)Plus that minimal savings is totally out the window when those stacks are offloaded and put on a trailer and hauled by a truck to where ever it is going.  You might say, well, everybody should have their own sidings, but the energy expended in single car movements would also be a factor in overall savings.  It is a very tangled web of the Laws of Conservation of Energy attempting to be broken to prove a point, but that is why it is called a Law and not a suggestion, it can't be broken.

@bigkid posted:


Only other thing I see on the horizon that may work with current infrastructure is synthetic gasoline and oil made from algae using modified photosynthesis, that would be a carbon neutral framework that could use the existing infrastructure. It is feasible, but is it practical? Remains to be seen. So Diesel engines could be running diesel fuel made by algae (one advantage to algae production? It thrives on the waste at sewage treatment plants and helps "clean it up").

I was involved with a project that converted trash to syngas to fire a 35 MW producing turbine.  It was very low emission and had full carbon capture.  The business model was to sell the carbon as well as any recyclable material.  For each proposed location the waste stream coming to the plant was fully analyzed to see what the by-products could be and what they could be used for.  In one location the by-product was synthetic diesel fuel.  It was very forward thinking and very a very market based approach.

I agree that nuclear can be a good source of sustainable energy as well and with the will, I fully believe the waste stream issue can be solved.  The largest and most modern nuclear power plant in the nation is 50 miles west of Phoenix and generates 3.3 GW of power.  It serves large portions of San Diego, Las Angeles, Los Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson.  On top of that the water source is effluent from treated sewerage.  That kind of power output cannot be ignored.  In spite of my earlier cynical comment, I am optimistic that there could be a meeting of the minds between the big thinkers and the big funders.  The status quo is not sustainable in the long term so something has to change.

I think Wabtec has some interesting ideas that still need to be refined and experimented upon, but after acquiring the GE line of locomotives they have a good basis to innovate.  Rather than dismiss it out of hand, give it a chance.

I also know that we are not going to solve the worlds problems on a toy train forum, but we can at least dream about a better future in lieu of the "we can't" mentality?

@CALNNC posted:

If you remember you high school physics, energy cannot be created or destroyed.  If you convert the various propulsion systems energy used to watts or BTU's, for a given load over a given distance, the energy cost will be the same.  Gas, propane, battery, diesel fuel,  coal or natural gas burned in a power plant to run the grid and change electric car batteries or run an electric railroad, the net energy savings is zero.  The waste occurs in all those cars and trucks stuck in traffic, idling or going slow, below their optimum fuel use range.  The energy expended to move a double stack of 75 cars, 150 full loaded 40 ton trailers over a given distance will be the same as 150 tractor/single trailers doing the job over the same distance, or tractor/double trailers over the same distance, within an acceptable range of difference that makes true energy savings a hard thing to calculate honestly without global warming hype and politics.  That is energy, not fuel consumption to make that energy, and there too, a diesel engine making 500HP or an electric motor burning 500HP of energy that came from burning fuel to make that 500HP worth of electricity, net savings, zero(nuke plants, daytime good weather solar, or windmills when the wind is blowing notwithstanding)Plus that minimal savings is totally out the window when those stacks are offloaded and put on a trailer and hauled by a truck to where ever it is going.  You might say, well, everybody should have their own sidings, but the energy expended in single car movements would also be a factor in overall savings.  It is a very tangled web of the Laws of Conservation of Energy attempting to be broken to prove a point, but that is why it is called a Law and not a suggestion, it can't be broken.

The law of conservation of energy doesn't handle one other thing, though, and that is thermodynamic efficiency. In a heat engine (which pretty much all our power sources are), the efficiency is basically T2-T1/T2, where T1 is the starting temperature of a heat cycle engine and t2 is the peak. To gain 100% t1 would need to be absolute 0. Far as I know on this scale the most efficient heat engine we have is a solar cell, it is about 35% last I checked (may be higher).

When you use an energy source, you are right energy is not destroyed. But for example, when you run a gasoline engine (efficiency I think using the formula about is like 6 or 7%, if memory serves me right), that represents usable energy. In a car the other 93% or so is lost as heat, a steam engine is even less efficient (diesel is about the same as a gas engine).

With an electric power plant, there are losses from fuel to output, when you heat up water to drive a turbine, using the formula above it heating the water is around 7,8% (and if someone knows the real value, and I am wrong, let me know). Using the water to drive a turbine reduces the usable energy about 10% (the number 90% comes to mind in spinning a turbine to power output). Transmission causes further loss of usable energy, and when you use electricity to spin an electric motor, there is about a 5% loss (95% efficiency). 

There also is efficiency of transport. A train for each gallon of diesel fuel used, carries a larger load of freight a longer distance than a truck can do for example (fuel used per ton/mile).

What these discussions boil down to is usable energy, which is what the thermodynamic efficiency number is about. And yes, if you factor converting let's say natural gas to boil water to run a turbine, generate power, and use that power to drive an electric engine, you might find out that due to the losses in doing what I just said, a diesel engine might be more efficient (diesel engine has losses off the 8% or so thermo efficiency, there are losses in generating power through a generator/alternator and then driving the motor, but it is relatively small, compared to the huge loss burning natural gas itself to heat the water up.

On the other hand, there is the other factor, one being pollution. If we are talking transport, lot easier to clean the emissions of a power plant than a lot of vehicles individually. More importantly, if we are talking carbon emissions, a power plant, whether carbon capture actually can work (not so far), or if it is being generated by nuclear power or wind or solar or hydro, would have 0 net carbon gain compared to the vehicles (I saw a study on carbon emissions for a car/mile versus an electric car being charged from the grid, even using coal to generate the power the electric car's total carbon footprint is way less than a gas or diesel powered car engine/carbon per mile).

Personally I doubt that electrifying the railroads would be practical nor desirable in what we are talking about, I suspect if we are going to tackle carbon seriously (a big if), that likely for heavy transport like trains and aircraft, the biological route may be the answer there, trucks may end up with rapid charge electric power (if current trends continue, they may have the range and charging speed, assuming we can build a real heavy duty network able to feed 800kw charging station, to allow for electric trucks to work in maybe 5-10 years I would guess). There is no one solution, eventually though what will happen is that fossil fuel usage will be countered by more green energy that offsets what fossil fuel use is putting out.

Obviously, at this point none of us has the power to decide anything, but there have been some really good points made on here, and what we would like and what is practical is often not easy. To guys running three rail trains off of electricity, electric railroads can seem like a pretty obvious thing *lol*

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