Wall Street Journal - End of the Line for Model Trains? Aging Hobbyists Trundle On

gg1man posted:

OK, maybe Lionel is off their collective rockers, but that means so is MTH and all the other manufactures. I don't think so! If you disagree with me check out places like the Choo-Choo Barn and the worlds greatest toy train layout in the world in Germany. The visitors are not all in wheelchairs are they? But yet they have plenty of visitors to keep the doors open.

How many of the younger families go just to see the trains, and walk out with nothing? Nearly all of them.

Going to see a train layout is not the same as diving neck-deep into the hobby, or even purchasing a basic starter set that sits in the closet and gathers dust, and is absolutely no indication of the health or future of the hobby.

Just from a purely demographic perspective, "baby boomers" by and large are the lion's share of train model hobbyists, and there are more of them than any other generation. Even if each subsequent generation had the same per-capita participation in the hobby as the boomers, the hobby is going to shrink, period. The only way for the hobby to grow would be for a larger percentage of people from each subsequent generation participating, and we know that is not happening.

Fact of the matter is Lionel may be successful and making money, but they are not selling the volume they did in their heyday. More choices for the consumer, higher profit margins, but fewer overall sales.

"here are more of them than any other generation."

Actually millenials now outnumber baby boomers.  Some thing called  mortality, I believe, is starting to have an effect.  The oldest baby boomers are around 70 and mortality rates start increasing strikingly in the 60s and 70s.
I think train show attendance is a very important indicator of public interest in toy trains and model railroading.  So are starter set sales, which vastly outnumber sales of $1,000 or even $500 locomotives.  Most people are just interested in a train around the tree or similar casual interest.  The number of people with ambitious layouts is probably a tiny fraction of those with this casual interest.  All of these folks contribute to the financial viability of the industry and hobby. Focusing on just one segment does not tell the whole story.

I believe the article misses the point altogether. Its not the aging baby boomers that will collapse the hobby. There will always be an interest in recreating the miniature operating world of trains, no mater who is left... What will end this hobby (and only temporarily) is the high dollar locomotive prices, the non-availability of products and the amount of money available to spend on toys during an economic downturn.

Unless that "Holodeck" is available in every ones home. And I don't think I will be around to see it ...

Landsteiner posted:

"here are more of them than any other generation."

Actually millenials now outnumber baby boomers.  Some thing called  mortality, I believe, is starting to have an effect.  The oldest baby boomers are around 70 and mortality rates start increasing strikingly in the 60s and 70s.
I think train show attendance is a very important indicator of public interest in toy trains and model railroading.  So are starter set sales, which vastly outnumber sales of $1,000 or even $500 locomotives.  Most people are just interested in a train around the tree or similar casual interest.  The number of people with ambitious layouts is probably a tiny fraction of those with this casual interest.  All of these folks contribute to the financial viability of the industry and hobby. Focusing on just one segment does not tell the whole story.

IMO, you have a lot of sound thinking here, Landsteiner. And now that I am about to turn 72, I find your "mortality rates start increasing strikingly in the 60s and 70s" point to be particularly poignant. Alas.

FrankM.

Funny you’d bring this up. Not long ago, a friend of mine at DARPA was telling me about holograms and how close they are to commercial holograms that look like the object is right there. He is convinced that historical re-enactments will soon be a thing of the past because you’ll soon be able to re-create the entire Pickett’s charge at Gettysburg or the Allied assault at Normandy, (landing craft, planes, explosions and all) on the original sites without even bending a blade of grass.

He mentioned models. “Imagine,” he said, “A layout that is only a table top. You hit a button and all the hills, trees, tracks, buildings and trains instantly appear. A train comes into the station and tiny passengers get off and on, the engineer gets down and oils around the locomotive. Steam comes out the stack and it leaves in a plume of steam and smoke.” The only thing they haven’t figured out is having the sounds coming from what would appear to be their proper sources.

It’s coming sooner than we think, he told me.

p51 posted:

Funny you’d bring this up. Not long ago, a friend of mine at DARPA was telling me about holograms and how close they are to commercial holograms that look like the object is right there. He is convinced that historical re-enactments will soon be a thing of the past because you’ll soon be able to re-create the entire Pickett’s charge at Gettysburg or the Allied assault at Normandy, (landing craft, planes, explosions and all) on the original sites without even bending a blade of grass.

He mentioned models. “Imagine,” he said, “A layout that is only a table top. You hit a button and all the hills, trees, tracks, buildings and trains instantly appear. A train comes into the station and tiny passengers get off and on, the engineer gets down and oils around the locomotive. Steam comes out the stack and it leaves in a plume of steam and smoke.” The only thing they haven’t figured out is having the sounds coming from what would appear to be their proper sources.

It’s coming sooner than we think, he told me.

now that sounds cool !!!    I can only imagine a hologram football game...talk about model railroading dying a quick and painless death...imagine you controlling the Dallas cowboys cheerleaders performing in your family room. 

"I find your "mortality rates start increasing strikingly in the 60s and 70s" point to be particularly poignant. "

Do not despair. Although the projected average life expectancy at birth is in the 75-80 range in our society, the number of individuals in good health in their 80s and 90s is astonishingly higher than 20, 30 or 40 years ago, and growing dramatically.  Some think the average life expectancy at birth will be 85-90 years when recalculated in a few decades based upon the current older population's experience. So you can buy green bananas and plan for a vacation next winter.

He said it'll be like the '3d printing' world that is popping up or the people making upgrades for the train sim programs. The money will be made by the people who design the holograms and we'll pay for those uploads and run them on our own machines.

Soon, I guess the diving line won't be between scales; it'll be between those who run digital trains in 3D v/s those who have actual solid models on real layouts.

p51 posted:

..., a friend of mine at DARPA was telling me about holograms and how close they are to commercial holograms that look like the object is right there. He is convinced that historical re-enactments will soon be a thing of the past because you’ll soon be able to re-create the entire Pickett’s charge at Gettysburg or the Allied assault at Normandy, (landing craft, planes, explosions and all) on the original sites without even bending a blade of grass.

He mentioned models. “Imagine,” he said, “A layout that is only a table top. You hit a button and all the hills, trees, tracks, buildings and trains instantly appear. ...

It’s coming sooner than we think, he told me.

Intriguing.  And very, very interesting, of course. I think I'd like something like that in addition to  - perhaps up in the hills or background, or intermingled with - a solid, physical layout. I'd still like being able to take hold of the trains, and even working to hand-craft the neighborhoods, physically. But the idea of having a physical layout expanded and augmented by such holograms stimulates the imagination in the extreme ! Now, if we could add all that to having the vehicular traffic actually moving on a layout, WOW O WOWeee!!!!!!

Thanks for letting us know about this developing phenomenon.

FrankM.

EscapeRocks posted:

EBT Jim posted:

A positive .... 20,000 folks .... families .... at Trainfest in Milwaukee.

A negative ... young/new members enthusiastically show their semi-scale engines on the OGR hi-rail, o27 and traditional 3-rail o gauge forum, and some people feel the need to "rain on their parade" by pointing out the model's lack of prototypicalness.

I can't "like" the highlighted part of your post enough.   Unfortunately, we see it everyday around here from the usual 4 curmudgeons who must be bored in retirement.

 

 

Hear hear!  Not quite sure what drives a handful of wannabe grammar Nazis to come onto the Non-Scale forum and demean the other half.   We get it....semi-scale is an oxymoron, but the manufacturers have made it part of their marketing and advertising. Just check their websites. Many other industries use terms or jargon that's oxymoronic. Time for the grammar police to go play with their trains and cut with the "you're either scale or you're not" nonsense.

raising4daughters posted:

EscapeRocks posted:

EBT Jim posted:

A positive .... 20,000 folks .... families .... at Trainfest in Milwaukee.

A negative ... young/new members enthusiastically show their semi-scale engines on the OGR hi-rail, o27 and traditional 3-rail o gauge forum, and some people feel the need to "rain on their parade" by pointing out the model's lack of prototypicalness.

I can't "like" the highlighted part of your post enough.   Unfortunately, we see it everyday around here from the usual 4 curmudgeons who must be bored in retirement.

 

 

Hear hear!  Not quite sure what drives a handful of wannabe grammar Nazis to come onto the Non-Scale forum and demean the other half.   We get it....semi-scale is an oxymoron, but the manufacturers have made it part of their marketing and advertising. Just check their websites. Many other industries use terms or jargon that's oxymoronic. Time for the grammar police to go play with their trains and cut with the "you're either scale or you're not" nonsense.

I also can't agree more here. Big deal if the TOY train isn't a perfect replica of the real thing.

Living in the Washington DC area, we've seen a great deal of train stores disappear in recent years. I'd say in the past 10 years, we've seen at least 6 stores close. I can think of 2 opening. One of those new stores is a "train" store. The other is primarily a hobby shop that has lots of trains as well.

I'm also happy to see many younger faces, such as myself, in the hobby. I've seen LOTS of younger teenagers and kids with their parents in my LHS buying trains. Lots of father/son groups.

At shows with the National Capital Trackers, I set up the below display with lots of RTR catalogs and encourage people to ask questions and enjoy taking to people about getting in the hobby. I usually get several hundred catalogs and am usually cleaned out at the end of the weekend. Sure I get some of the guys from our club and others taking theirs but overall, all go to kids and families interested in the hobby.

Personally, I think the future of the High-tech train market is bright. I think people will want the latest and greatest in technology and this will attract people to the hobby. I do however see the collectible/Postwar segment dying in the near future. Most people, I think are not going to want a 1950s locomotive vs a modern engine with sound, cruise control, auto couplers, smoke effects, etc, etc, etc.

I wrote the below piece for my LHS. He got the catalogs for the shows I do with my display. He asked if I'd be willing to put together a paragraph or two so he could send to MTH, Lionel and Bachmann with a thank you for their support for my efforts in 2015. As you can see, I had a few more things to say than just a paragraphs worth!

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Comments on getting people into the hobby, discussed with the owner of Engine House Hobbies in Gaithersburg who helped me with the catalogs. This is important for all, especially during the train season. This past weekend, November 14 and 15, the National Capital Trackers, Washington DC's O Gauge railroad club set up a modular layout at the Rockville Lions Club train show in Rockville, MD. This was the fourth show which I set up an "Intro to O Gauge Trains" display. I've created a small poster board and, with your support, set up lots of catalogs from MTH, Lionel, and Bachmann. I focus on the Ready to Run train set catalogs as this display targets beginners and those that may not be very familiar with the hobby to hopefully grow this hobby. We as hobbyists need to do the best we can to put our best foot forward and promote this hobby and get younger and new folks involved. I'm seeing good results but there is still a long road ahead. I also pass out American Flyer and the "Premium" catalogs from MTH, Lionel and Bachmann. Finally, Engine House Hobbies gets their name and contact info displayed on the poster and I also print out large stacks of paper with the store name and contact info, including website for my "customers" to take. Talking to people about getting a train set and getting involved in the hobby has become one of my most favorite things to do at shows. While I don't do this display at every show, I try to expand as much as I can. This is not something sponsored by the Trackers - this is just me, a Tracker member, doing this to try to do what little I can to promote this hobby further. I've also seen that talking with people, explaining things to them, and handing them a catalog can increase the public's interest. While not everyone may be serious, I see many that are and this past weekend was no exception.

We do a show in Kensington, MD each September that draws approximately 2,000 people, the vast majority being local families from the surrounding neighborhoods. I ran out of catalogs during this show. Another thing that stood out - I was running my MTH Railking Imperial ES44, the same locomotive MTH includes in their starter sets. I was approached by a grandmother wanting to get a CSX train for her grandson. She was familiar with HO trains but I really tried to steer her away from the smaller scales with younger children. I explained the O gauge sets that MTH produces, how they can be easily expanded, upgraded, etc and that exact engine I was running can be purchased in a starter set from MTH. I showed her the train set catalogs and included a flyer to Engine House Hobbies. She couldn't stop thanking me for taking the time to explain it to her "in English" and answer her questions. She also asked about buying trains off Craigslist and I steered her away from that as 1) I want to support the local guys and 2) the local guys can be of tremendous help before, during, and after the sale. Plus, a warranty is included. I had similar encounters this past weekend at Rockville. While I did not have the ES44 engine with me, I repeated the process, many, many times. Again, while we may not be able to "hook" everyone, a substantial amount had good, serious questions and were serious about getting sets for Christmas and/or under the Tree. This is what we are here to do. I don't hesitate to say that doing this promotion for the hobby is more fun than running trains on the layout. Having the catalogs along with the actual display and someone to answer questions is key. Even more key is a dealer that is willing to explain things, patience, and friendly. We are lucky to have several first class dealers in the DC ara.

A few other observations -

1) I've seen far too many train guys respond to beginner questions and considerations with snarky, condescending attitudes and answers. AOL did an online article about Rod Stewart's HO layout (yes, THE Rod Stewart). The first sentence of the AOL article read "Model Trains may make you think 'creepy dude in a basement. "This does no good to the hobby. Or, I've seen guys bore people with technical discussions and terminology to the point where the person they may be talking to is more confused than they were before. As I've said before to other clubs, written about on the OGR forum, and other venues - "know your audience, answer their questions, no matter how "dumb" they may be with a smile. Be patient." If this hobby is going to grow and survive, we need to follow this. There is a time and place and audience for technical talk. Most don't need or want it but there may be some that do. Grandparents and frankly, most people, don't need the technical talk or how this is a terrible engine because the tender has one less chunk of coal in it than the real thing running at some museum. Same goes for all dealers regardless of the customer. It is much easier to lose a customer than it is to gain one. Not to mention, most upset customers will talk more about their poor experience than they will good ones.

2) I'm happy to see Lionel including many lower priced and "kid oriented" train sets into their catalogs such as the Dinosaur train, etc. We had a new junior member this weekend and his father (actually, we had several children/dad/grandpa teams this weekend). The boy was about 10 years old and was running his Lionel locomotive with the Lion Chief remote and was outside of the layout. As this kid walked around the layout, a large group of kids followed. This is what we want! Lower priced sets can be key - I've seen many balk at the prices on sets.

3) I do not like the direction some are taking with starter sets. MTH has long said that they see their starter sets as the gateway for newcomers and they want to put their best foot forward. MTH's starter sets are leaps and bounds ahead of Lionel. Lionel DOES make nice stuff. However, with the new Lion Chief technology, if that LC remote dies, gets lost, broken, whatever - that train set, and it's owner is dead in the water and can't run. Stores don't sell remotes so the only option is to go back to Lionel; a wait that can take several weeks or longer. Is this the way to get people into the hobby? NO! I do not understand why Lionel doesn't include Remote/Transformer switches on their LC engines like they do on the Lion Chief + products. I don't dislike Lionel's stuff - I've got several including Lion Chief+ products. However, consideration should be taken that the ability to run on an old school transformer is key. It can't cost Lionel much to add a transformer/remote switch to their products. Also, Lionel's "wall wart" power supply is very inadequate for expansion. As a result, one would need to by a new transformer ($100+ dollars) if they wanted to expand, not to mention the cost of track, etc. While I understand the economics by the decision and the money making, I think this is a major turn off to a lot of people. MTH is doing a very good job by giving a "real transformer" that can easily be hooked to an MTH controller to run conventional, DCS command capability, and more. If MTH's train set remote dies, a new one can be found on a dealer's shelf and purchased for a reasonable price. Also, the train can run with a basic conventional transformer. While MTH's track is a downfall, they really are putting their best foot forward. Many of the people I've spoken with are more than willing to spend the extra money and get an MTH set for the features, "upgradability" and more. Bachmann's catalog that covers all product lines is also a terrific move. Many people are confused by the many different catalogs produced by Lionel and MTH - HO, Track and Power, Ready to run, Christmas, Railking and Premier Volume X, Signature catalogs, American Flyer, etc. As a former HO and N Scaler, I find it kind of fun to look through the Bachmann catalogs to see the other product lines as well as the Williams line. Consolidating all product lines into one large catalog would make a lot more sense  and be a lot less confusing to those interested in the hobby. I would think it may be cheaper to pint and ship that tons of separate catalogs for various product lines.

4) Get these things into people hands. Let them run the trains, blow the whistles, etc. If I feelcomfortable doing so with my audience, I have no problem whatsoever to hand one of my lcomotives over and tell them to take a look at the quality, feel the heft, etc. I'm often seen handing the DCS or Lionel remotes to kids to blow the whistles, etc. I think the manufacturers need to do more to keep dealers in business and make selling trains a more attractive market. We are seeing far too many hobby shops closing across the country.

5) This outreach to younger/new people is working. I attended a WB&A TCA chapter show several weeks ago. Lots of young kids but especially gratifying was an operating layout built and run by pre-teens and teens. OUTSTANDING! This past show at Rockville saw, 5 father/son or grandpa/son teams running trains. Even better. When people see kids running trains, it is one of the best ambassadors for the hobby. While this is great, we need to do more. This includes manufactures, dealers, and hobbyists. Get trains into public places. I recall an MTH display at Washington's Union Station several Christmases ago. Even late at night, the layouts were surrounded by people. Get the trains in the public eye and let people know this hobby is alive and well.

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Moonson posted:

Intriguing.  And very, very interesting, of course. I think I'd like something like that in addition to  - perhaps up in the hills or background, or intermingled with - a solid, physical layout. I'd still like being able to take hold of the trains, and even working to hand-craft the neighborhoods, physically. But the idea of having a physical layout expanded and augmented by such holograms stimulates the imagination in the extreme ! Now, if we could add all that to having the vehicular traffic actually moving on a layout, WOW O WOWeee!!!!!!

Thanks for letting us know about this developing phenomenon.

FrankM.

I agree, and that's why I never got into train sims. For my money, I want a physical thing in hand afterward. At least a real layout can't crash and vanish forever with a simply glitch to a microchip.

If the hologram thing comes to pass, it'd be cool to have passengers getting on/off the trains and the crew doing their chores along the run. Oh, and the steam and smoke you can't realistically model otherwise. That's the part of this concept that I'm most interested in.

Grand kids like 'em!

It was an interesting article - following others I have read over the years that deconstruct hobbies like stamp and coin collecting, building plastic models, and model rocketry. Every generation that can afford leisure has its own way of appreciating it - through hobbies or other activities. Will model railroading or toy trains ebb as its largest group of strongest 'followers' continues to die off? Most certainly. It'll be more of a niche in a world where everything is fragmented into niches. Will it be different - using even more technology or even battery-power- in the future? Sure. And I look forward to seeing it evolve. Personally, I like to share my hobby with others, not because I'm worried about it's future, but because I have fun with my take on it and want to share that fun with those around me. 

I'm a young model railroader myself. Got into electric trains after Thomas. I like Lionel's tech, but I think there needs to be more outreach on Lionel's part in terms of demonstrating their product. I mean with Lionchief why not let customers run the trains in store? I think that might attract some fresh hobbyists. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see a resurgence in the hobby once young people who owned train sets look into building their own layouts. I mean most of my generation is in college or trying to find employment right now so they don't have space or money.

Landsteiner posted:

"I find your "mortality rates start increasing strikingly in the 60s and 70s" point to be particularly poignant. "

Do not despair. Although the projected average life expectancy at birth is in the 75-80 range in our society, the number of individuals in good health in their 80s and 90s is astonishingly higher than 20, 30 or 40 years ago, and growing dramatically.  Some think the average life expectancy at birth will be 85-90 years when recalculated in a few decades based upon the current older population's experience. So you can buy green bananas and plan for a vacation next winter.

I was wondering why 83-year-old Carl Izzo continues to work on his layout when it sounds like it will be dismantled upon his overdue demise.  Though twenty years his junior, every strike of a clock reminds me time is running out.  Perhaps I have too many striking clocks.

What, me worry?    

Alfred E Neuman posted:

Landsteiner posted:

"I find your "mortality rates start increasing strikingly in the 60s and 70s" point to be particularly poignant. "

Do not despair. Although the projected average life expectancy at birth is in the 75-80 range in our society, the number of individuals in good health in their 80s and 90s is astonishingly higher than 20, 30 or 40 years ago, and growing dramatically.  Some think the average life expectancy at birth will be 85-90 years when recalculated in a few decades based upon the current older population's experience. So you can buy green bananas and plan for a vacation next winter.

I was wondering why 83-year-old Carl Izzo continues to work on his layout when it sounds like it will be dismantled upon his overdue demise.  Though twenty years his junior, every strike of a clock reminds me time is running out.  Perhaps I have too many striking clocks.

Maybe he likes to play and doesn't worry (I refer you to your slogan. And then to mine.)

 

What, me worry?    

“It really won’t resemble a train,” said Howard Hitchcock, chief executive of Lionel. “They’re almost more like spacecraft, to be quite honest with you.”

Not sure what to say about that.

I got back into the hobby a few years back to introduce my 6-year old boys to the hobby.  We bought the Polar Express set and the RK N&W J steam rtr set. The RK set was a ridiculously better value, with full complement of DCS, realistic sound and detailed passenger cars.  And now we can use the cell phone to control things - wow!  

But you know, technology and the command stuff is finicky.  More gadgets don't equate to more fun.  As a kid, being able to basically abuse my Lionel train and then just put the wheels back on the track and push the lever to make that little mechanized wonder go was enchanting.  Entertainment sometimes means just throwing a lever at 6 years old.  It may be what plants the seed. If no seeds are planted in 5 and 6 years olds today, I wouldn't hold high hopes that they will ever "get back into it when they hit their 30s" or whatever.  

Also wanted to make an observation after reading this entire thread, which is consistent with what I've observed in some other threads I've also read in the past. Painting with a very broad brush, there is one large group of forumites thinking, honorably, about the hobby's future and its success for tomorrow.  There is another large faction that has an amazingly selfish attitude and cares only about their own enjoyment with no interest in what the future may hold for the hobby.  I always remember an old Native American saying and I think it sort of applies here - you don't inherit the world from your parents, you borrow it from your children. 

Signing off ....

I tried to open the link to read the article and the first request is to subscribe to the paper. Anyone have a PDF of this to pass along. email in my profile.

PJB posted:

...There is another large faction that has an amazingly selfish attitude and cares only about their own enjoyment with no interest in what the future may hold for the hobby. 

Signing off ....

 How one chooses to promote the hobby or not promote the hobby is up to each individual. Someone like me has very little interest in modern, foreign made, overpriced (circuit board-equipped) locomotives and cars. Instead, I prefer prewar equipment, made in the USA when craftsmanship was important and something that I can repair and maintain. These vintage locomotives/cars/accessories can easily last another 100 years. I guess I promote in my own way, encouraging younger members of the hobby to take a look at prewar (vintage, not repros) as an option. Many pieces are available and very affordable nowadays. They can provide as much enjoyment today and as they did many years ago. 

 Other than that, as far as promoting items made today, tomorrow and for the future... I'll leave that to today's toy train manufacturers. 

Tom 

i don't think the hobby is fading away , in trouble yes, but here for many more years. I am younger, I play video games, yet almost all my favorite games are old, like Blaster Master, or Mega Man on the NES or Age of Empires one and two, old by today's standards. Then modern games just don't have the same quality to me, nice graphics, but the game play apart from refinement has hardly budged since the early 1990's, yet with more troublesome bugs. I have seen a similar attitude about the post war era versus today.  My generation has far less disposable income, space, and is far to used to being over stimulated to really get down to working on hobbies, like trains. Then I find the lack of O-27 able trains odd, they used to be introductory for O.

I do find it interesting that modern hacker culture grew out of the Yale model railroad club. There was a bit of a clash between the modelers and the wiring control group. Stuck me when I read about it as out there. i guess model trains

As as for how accurate the image media gives us elder women are now the biggest group of gamers, ages 45 to 50, not boys in their teens and twenties with the first person shooter, very different from the image we are presented with. Not what we are lead to belive looking at TV.

Writing here reminds me of how Lionel original sold trains, first in bright colors so mom would buy them, and added how it was father son time and helping him grow up to be a man. It was good for the whole family, and was to a limited point a family project. Now with TV baby sitters being replaced by mobile video game and basically tv baby sitters getting into trains is harder. The change from knowing something yourself, to knowing who knows something also hampers the spread of older hobbies in general.

Culture sure has changed in the last 116 years since Lionel's founding.

Just wanted to let everyone know CBS Evening News is doing a spin off of the WSJ story called "Classics With A Twist"

They just shot some Broll footage at our Brooklyn store with my cousin Anthony and they are working with Lionel.   It should air Sunday Night!  If not they said it would be on their website for sure.  Were crossing our fingers the segment will make the cut! 

This hobby, like many others, will not be dying off anytime soon. As long as there are real trains people will still be fascinated in models. Sure, maybe the majority of the people in this hobby are older but there are still a lot of younger enthusiasts out there. I truly think there isn't a lot increase in product being bought because the younger people in this hobby can't afford them or should I say the parents can't. In around 10 years Id say the hobby will start becoming more popular because by that time many of the younger people will have their own full-time paying jobs.... Hopefully.  

Daviddurbin posted:

This hobby, like many others, will not be dying off anytime soon. As long as there are real trains people will still be fascinated in models. Sure, maybe the majority of the people in this hobby are older but there are still a lot of younger enthusiasts out there. I truly think there isn't a lot increase in product being bought because the younger people in this hobby can't afford them or should I say the parents can't. In around 10 years Id say the hobby will start becoming more popular because by that time many of the younger people will have their own full-time paying jobs.... Hopefully.  

David, you are right on point.  If real trains exist, toy trains will also be made and bought and so follows model trains. 

As to cost, I have been very pleased to see a retailer like Menards bring a wide range of O gauge rolling stock, buildings, vehicles and now tubular track to the market at family-friendly prices over the past two years. 

In my community Menards now has a larger offering of products available during the holiday season than does my local hobby shops.  They also offer several Lionel starter sets at a reasonable price.

I've seen this thread popping up in the "recent posts" column for a few days now, but didn't chime in sooner 'cause I tried reading the WSJ article but am not a subscriber.  So that being said, I get the drift of the article from some of the posts in this thread.  Didn't read them all, but let me just say this...  Articles can be slanted any  way the author wants to tell the story.  Whether the story is an accurate representation of reality is an entirely different deal.

Case in point:  I could have written a story that featured an 8-page Lionel catalog from 1969.  Yep... EIGHT whopping pages!!!    Talk about a company being a mere shadow of its former self.

Now fast-forward to 2016... where we have THREE major toy/model train importers (Lionel, MTH, Atlas) each  pumping out a glut of product that our great-grandchildren couldn't absorb even if they LIKED the hobby as much as we do.  Not to mention two other importers (3rd Rail and Menards) selling niche products to enthusiasts that are as far apart on the spectrum of buyers as one can get. 

Lionel's most recent 2016 Signature Catalog was 167 pages, and its RTR catalog was almost 200 pages.  Not to be outdone in this category, Atlas just published their "Ultimate Guide to Atlas Model Railroad Products" coming in at 274 pages, admittedly including product for O, HO, and N scale.  And MTH is holding its own in the phone-book style catalog department as well.

Bottom line... if catalog size is any indication, it doesn't appear this hobby is even close to approaching its death bed.  Sure... I'll gladly admit that today's kids would rather bury their faces in a video game or wildly tap their thumbs on the latest mobile smart-phone.  And the grossly inflated prices of the new stuff coming over from China have gotta be a huge turn-off to all but the most die-hard toy train addicts afflicted with a disease that just won't go away.   But as far as the hobby running on borrowed time?  Tell me more about that when the catalogs are 8 pages again.  And even THEN, that's no guarantee that the end will be drawing near.  That 8-page Lionel catalog from 1969 would make anyone anxious about the future of toy trains.  Yet look where we are today... this segment of the hobby seems to be doing just fine over 45 years later.  Who'd have thunk!!! 

David

David, I think the gist is that the resurgence came about for two reasons. One, you and I got older. So did a bunch of boys (and fewer girls) born sometime in the previous mid-century that got toy trains whether it be Lionel, Marx,  American Flyer, or something else when they were young. Two, many of us are caught up in the new technology to make our trains even more realistic than we could ever have dreamed, so much so that we have a name for the most extreme, Rivet Counters.

Fast forward to the start of this century and we have a bubble of older men with time and money to spend reliving some of that past. We are the market for the most part and Lionel and MTH are responding with more and more higher end product. But our generation will be gone..some in ten, more in twenty, most in 30 years. We are in a wonderful boon that will last another decade or more and time will tell if there are the same type of consumers that will fill our void...young boys who on the most part did not have that same experience and awe of seeing a train run around the Christmas tree one December 25th. Manufactures will have to deal with two entities, a possible shrinking clientele and a glut of higher end trains now on the market at a reduced price. Maybe that alone will fuel a continued market, but it may drive a maker of new items looking for customers even more. 

Bottom line is that I do not think we will see it happen real soon. There are too many of us older guys that keep spending $1000.00 of dollars, sometimes on a single item, that will keep things going. But I do believe that the next generation will see the decline. Maybe not the demise totally, but nothing like it is for us now.

Rick

The largest segment of the train hobby is HO followed by N scale. A younger hobbyist may not have the; Space Nor the money for O scale 2 or 3 rail.

HO locomotives with sound and DCC on sale might cost you as low as $140. N scale DCC without sound and on sale can cost as low as $50-60 per locomotive. Yes there is a huge size difference between O to HO to N but their is also a huge price difference.

I agree with Alan Arnold's response.  On any given weekend, at any given train show,  club open house, or train hobby shop, one will see a growing number of young parents with their kids and they all seem very engaged in the hobby. 

Ranger Rick posted:

David, I think the gist is that the resurgence came about for two reasons. One, you and I got older. ...

Fast forward to the start of this century and we have a bubble of older men with time and money to spend reliving some of that past. We are the market for the most part and Lionel and MTH are responding with more and more higher end product. But our generation will be gone..some in ten, more in twenty, most in 30 years. ...

Rick, I think you've characterized the market "sweet spot" very well... with the emphasis on "reliving some of that past".  Most of us do it without giving it a second thought.  It's more inherent and reactive than something we actual plan out carefully.  More like we're drawn into it.  And THAT is the element that today's youngest generation is missing.

For me personally... by the time I really got into Lionel trains (i.e., mid-1960's), the post-war Lionel heyday was over.  And by 1969, the catalog basically consisted of whatever was left-over in Lionel's NJ warehouse facilities.  Production had all but stopped completely.  So for someone like me, that phenomenon left me wanting more... yet wondering if I'd ever see it.  Fortunately, the late 1970's and early 1980's gave us a calculated parade of post-war "re-issues".  Stuff that had disappeared COMPLETELY by the late 1960's was slowly becoming available during the MPC/LTI eras.  The drought was over... and many of us scrambled to grab these new items before they might not be available again.  None of us EVER envisioned this "endless summer" of toy train offerings that brings us to what we have today.

I was always drawn to the FM Trainmaster diesels as a youngster, 'cause I saw one in the 1966 catalog.  But at $65, it was a bit too expensive for our reach at the time.   By the late 1970's, Lionel started issuing them again... first the blue/yellow Virginian along with the SP Black Widow 1954 Toy Fair version.  Then when MTH hit the scene in full stride, I was like a kid in a candy store when I saw all the different FM roadnames MTH brought to York one year.  I still remember talking to Mike Wolf in the Yellow Hall (under the grandstands, no longer used today), and was ecstatic to see this amount of product being offered.  YESSS!!!!! 

Now what I just described... namely seeing stuff vanish so quickly and then re-emerging almost a decade (or more) later... THAT's the element that's not happening with this new generation of toy train enthusiasts -- at least not yet.  They -- as well as us "old timers" -- have been riding this ever-increasing wave of unending new product offerings.  We know the bubble is gonna burst one day... or at a bare minimum, we'll see some type of major "correction" -- much like we see with the stock market from time to time.  And given what we're seeing with prices now, I'd say we're VERY close to the bubble bursting.  Right now, we're in the midst of what is likely one last big push (by all the major importers) BEFORE that correction occurs.  I've already scaled back big-ticket purchases in Lionel's new 2016 catalogs.  I refuse to spend $1200 for a GG-1 w/sparking pantagraphs, when brand new ones (sans the arcing effect) are still available for well less than half that.  The same phenomenon is occurring with big-ticket steam locomotives too.   So instead of chasing the next newest acquisition, I'm channeling $$$ toward the early phases of building a new layout.  And having more fun in the process. 

If there's an important angle to "the story" that needs to be told, THAT's an angle that most journalists aren't addressing because they don't live-and-breathe our world.  They may drop in every now and then  -- when they're so inspired.  But few REALLY "get" what's going on in our little corner of the world nowadays.  The grossly inflated prices will bring about the "bubble burst" far sooner than our aging demographics.  Count on it.

David

David  "Rocky Mountaineer" hit the nail right on the head. I too am a baby boomer whose father needed a train in 1953, so I got one for Christmas. [I was 3 1/2]. Trains and Boy Scouts were my passion for a bunch of years. Then came girls, cars, college & marriage and a family,  Sometime during law school at night and a full time day job, the train bug bit me again in the mid 1970's and has never gone away. 

TTCS shows at Glen Island Casino and local shows on Long Island, Frank Hare's store  near Pittsburgh, TCA,  Mercer Junction and this Forum are/were my station stops.  Digital control is simply incredible.  [sure beats the ill-fated 1950's "electronic train"], and wide radius is the way to go.

Having said that, the pricing is getting out of hand and the bubble will inevitably burst. How many  expensive trains can the average train person afford or justify?

I've  read the Journal's  article. While it is clearly shallow in its research, it makes a valid point. But in my opinion, David's post much more accurately states  "the rest of the story." He and I are on precisely the same track.

If your going to talk premium Lionel pricing look back to 1937 when a 700E scale Hudson costs $75 a Gigantic sum in the Great Depression. Equals to about $1240 dollars today; however that's a straight BLS CPI calculation. It would be more on the order of buying a custom Kohs scale Hudson for many thousands today.

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

...  Articles can be slanted any  way the author wants to tell the story.  Whether the story is an accurate representation of reality is an entirely different deal.

Case in point:  I could have written a story that featured an 8-page Lionel catalog from 1969.  Yep... EIGHT whopping pages!!!    Talk about a company being a mere shadow of its former self.

Now fast-forward to 2016... where we have THREE major toy/model train importers (Lionel, MTH, Atlas) each  pumping out a glut of product that our great-grandchildren couldn't absorb even if they LIKED the hobby as much as we do.  Not to mention two other importers (3rd Rail and Menards) selling niche products to enthusiasts that are as far apart on the spectrum of buyers as one can get. 

Lionel's most recent 2016 Signature Catalog was 167 pages, and its RTR catalog was almost 200 pages.  Not to be outdone in this category, Atlas just published their "Ultimate Guide to Atlas Model Railroad Products" coming in at 274 pages, admittedly including product for O, HO, and N scale.  And MTH is holding its own in the phone-book style catalog department as well.

Bottom line... if catalog size is any indication ...

David,

catalogue size is likely linked to sales volume.  Sales volume, however, is not necessarily linked to age of customer.  Isn't it quite possible that the vast majority of these items, which are priced beyond the means of most children, are being bought by the same general age of people you see on these forums, in train clubs and walking around making the purchases at shows - the 50 - 80 year olds?  If so, this explains the sales and catalogue size; not an indicator of future hobby health. 

Peter

PJB posted:

... Isn't it quite possible that the vast majority of these items, which are priced beyond the means of most children, are being bought by the same general age of people you see on these forums, in train clubs and walking around making the purchases at shows - the 50 - 80 year olds?  If so, this explains the sales and catalogue size; not an indicator of future hobby health. 

...

PJB, if you read between the lines in my post, you'll see that I was suggesting none of these items is a guaranteed barometer of the hobby's future health.  But clearly, if the importers are pumping out catalogs that rival small-town phone books (when phone books were printed ), then they're not pumping out product because they're good corporate citizens.    Rather they're doing it because they're making good money.  And if folks in their 50's don't meet an untimely departure from this life, that implies a good 25-30 more years they can enjoy this hobby.  That's a LOT of time for many a company to offer products and post some nice profitable quarters.

That's why I'm suggesting the REAL risk to this segment of the hobby -- or more accurately, to the health of the importers bringing us new product each year -- centers around the grossly inflated prices we're seeing today -- not so much the aging demographics.  You mentioned items "which are priced beyond the means of most children"... and I'd go further and say these items are now priced beyond the means of many a reader of this forum too.  More importantly, even if folks can  afford the prices, some (like myself) are now simply deciding we WON'T splurge for these jewels in the same fashion we did a decade ago.

For example, I've placed no pre-orders yet for big-ticket items in Lionel's 2016 Signature Catalog.  NONE... ZIP... ZERO.   And I'm gonna see what gets made, and watch how many "extra" BTO items the larger dealers order.  At that point, I'll wait it out and see how the dust settles.  If some of the items sell out at the initial prices, then so be it.  I don't care, 'cause I already have a respectable roster of trains to enjoy.  I don't NEED an $1,800 Lionel Allegheny, nor a $1,200 Vision Line GG-1.  I was first thinking about pre-ordering a GS-4, but I'm now leaning toward waiting that one out too.  I already have a Legacy Daylight cab-forward, so the GS-4 falls purely in the "nice to have" category.  Definitely not a "need to have".

I don't expect dealers to sell these offerings at a loss.  But by not pre-ordering, I'm simply sending a message that these items are currently priced beyond what I WANT to spend.  Heck, in a few cases the item's dealer cost is above what I'd spend.  BTO is not a license for importers to inflate prices unchecked.  And if Mike Reagan or Howard Hitchcock were sitting across the table from me, I'd politely tell them, "If you're telling us you NEED your dealer network to sell product at the new MSRP's (or close to it) to ensure the health of the importer/supplier network, then save yourselves the trouble in the first place and don't even produce those items... 'cause I ain't buying them at those crazy prices."    Lower the internal cost to dealers, so they can price items more realistically in the market... and then we'll talk about some purchases. 

David 

PJB posted:

There is another large faction that has an amazingly selfish attitude and cares only about their own enjoyment with no interest in what the future may hold for the hobby.

So if one has other priorities than the sacred future of model railroading and the toy train hobby one is "amazingly selfish?"  I think you are way out of line on this.  Those who disagree with your priorities are lacking in your virtues?

Some of us simply don't believe that model railroading and toy trains are sufficiently of importance to the future of the human race to be worthy of much thought or action beyond sharing it with our children, grandchildren, etc.  Frankly, if I was going to invest energy and money in a crusade, it wouldn't be for model railroading.

I'd be interested in knowing about the sales figures of a place like Trainland/Trainworld.

Both, changes in total sales .... and changes in the percentage of sales between the scales.

I realize that market share between the retailers fluctuates, but I'd be interested in Trainworld's "big picture."

I note that very small retailers of HO crop up, and are successful. I guess its much easier to sell HO engines? Less DOA engines, much easier/cheaper to ship, space to stock more/variety of engines.

Of course, I fully understand  why retailers don't usually throw around their sales figures. lol

Matt01 posted:

I'd be interested in knowing about the sales figures of a place like Trainland/Trainworld.

Both, changes in total sales .... and changes in the percentage of sales between the scales.

I realize that market share between the retailers fluctuates, but I'd be interested in Trainworld's "big picture."

I note that very small retailers of HO crop up, and are successful. I guess its much easier to sell HO engines? Less DOA engines, much easier/cheaper to ship, space to stock more/variety of engines.

Of course, I fully understand  why retailers don't usually throw around their sales figures. lol

I don't about Trainworld in NY. I did a quick Wikipedia check on Charlie Ro in Massachusetts for their G scale USA train line.

I am one of the old, self-centered selfish old goats who feels no moral duty to preserve and maintain the model RR hobby. They can sink or swim like the rest of the US industries who have gone down the tubes. Too many to list here. So many of our corporations are  nothing more than marketing fronts for overseas businesses that it is ridiculous. Deal with it.

I am one of the old, self-centered selfish old goats who feels no moral duty to preserve and maintain the model RR hobby. They can sink or swim like the rest of the US industries who have gone down the tubes

Any or all of the big importers could go down the tubes, and the hobby will survive one way or another. There are tons of product out there.
Parts: either people will go back to cannibalizing some trains to fix others, and/or little basement operators will continue to make parts.