I told this story on another thread. Here is part of it: I went into a train store while on lunch. Just for you know what and giggles I asked the owner what his thoughts on the state of the hobby were? (This store sells all the popular gauges) He said, “The hobby is doing great! It’s train stores that are an endangered species.” I agree with him. I realize that this is only one store but I wonder how many train store owners were interviewed for this article? Were the people who run Trainfest or the show run by the Amherst Society interviewed? Not every article is diligently researched.
Seacoast, you are confusing the quality and depth of WSJ news reporting with your personal view that WSJ newsprint subscriptions are declining because of the WSJ paper format.
I may not agree with all news reporting or opinions expressed by the WSJ, but in this Internet environment where biased views are presented as fact by unknown sources - the WSJ has always stood out among the best of US and International Newspapers for its unbiased, honest, and thorough content of its published news articles.
Since WSJ articles are now simultaneously published online, printed, and on blogs, changes in WSJ print subscriptions do not imply an increase or decrease in validity or substance of those WSJ articles that may affect readership preferences. In fact, these news delivery formats have cause a big increase in the speed, types and quantity of WSJ news articles that are published.
It is fair to say that younger adults in Gen X, Y, Z, and Millennial Generations have more readily accepted receiving information from digital devices because they grew up using this technology format. This may explain why WSJ print subscriptions have declined - younger people prefer a different format for information delivery to reading news articles, etc. - not a change in WSJ article content that has expanded with Internet use.
However, I wonder what will happen in the as the younger generations get older, their eyesight starts to strain, and they may require reading glasses around age 50 due to view small digital text on handheld devices ... Maybe WSJ print subscriptions will rise as people get older due to the ease of reading a paper newspaper instead of staring at a small digital screen...
Steve
breezinup posted:But reporting a news story isn't criticism. It's not in the Op/Ed page. It's just reporting on something that exists. You're shooting the messenger.
I don't think I would call the WSJ A-Hed's ..... news stories. They're somewhere between an article and an Op-Ed. They're unresearched, light-hearted fun topics.
Regardless, if indeed, model railroading and long-established news organizations are in decline …. it's the end of civilization, as far as I'm concerned. 
Print vs digital? I have digital subscriptions to the two newspapers I read, because news is always happening. But, I still enjoy a magazine, catalog, etc in my hands on my easy chair.
Jim
PJB posted:Seacoast posted:eddie g posted:Seacoast, You really hate the newspapers. I would much rather read the printed newspaper. You miss a lot reading it on line.
Hi Eddie,
I don’t hate newspapers I was just making the comparison. Newspapers are on the decline and the newspaper article on the decline of trains. The author of the article fails to see himself in regards to the decline of the newspaper business. Something you say that means people should not criticize someone else for a fault that they have themselves.
You do realize, of course, that while the printed format might be on the decline, the new business itself - which is the employer of this author and that also makes all news articles available on-line - is alive and well and part of modern civilization ... don't you?
I’m NOT trying to start a fight. I was just making a comparison between newspapers in general which are on the decline. Am I wrong? What is the average age of a Wall Street Journal reader, print or digital? Or better yet your local newspaper? Say 60+ years old -as is the age of the average model railroader according to the National Model Railroad Assoc.
I live north of Boston and the once mighty Boston Globe is no more in either the print or digital format. ”Other interested parties included a group with members of the Taylor family who sold the Globe to the Times back in 1993. The 2016, $70 million sale price shows the paper's staggering drop in value since then, when the Times paid $1.1 billion for the Globe and its other local media properties.”
EBT Jim posted:breezinup posted:But reporting a news story isn't criticism. It's not in the Op/Ed page. It's just reporting on something that exists. You're shooting the messenger.
I don't think I would call the WSJ A-Hed's ..... news stories. They're somewhere between an article and an Op-Ed. They're unresearched, light-hearted fun topics.
Regardless, if indeed, model railroading and long-established news organizations are in decline …. it's the end of civilization, as far as I'm concerned.
Print vs digital? I have digital subscriptions to the two newspapers I read, because news is always happening. But, I still enjoy a magazine, catalog, etc in my hands on my easy chair.
Jim
I’m with Jim... they no longer deliver my local newspaper to the back woods where I live, so I get it electronically (without the shmutz on my fingers from the ink, I might add). I get OGR electronically. I bought a series of about 20 books I have always enjoyed electronically. And all these items are available on my iPad. There are certain things I still like hard copies... certain books, Lionel catalogs, hardware/software manuals...
That being said, I think trains will survive.
Seacoast postedI live north of Boston and the once mighty Boston Globe is no more in either the print or digital format. ”Other interested parties included a group with members of the Taylor family who sold the Globe to the Times back in 1993. The 2016, $70 million sale price shows the paper's staggering drop in value since then, when the Times paid $1.1 billion for the Globe and its other local media properties.”
One might make a comparison to bus company buyouts of trolley lines oh so many years ago. Food for thought.
bigkid posted:PJB posted:Lou1985 posted:I'm looking on the bright side: I'm in my early 30's. In a few years there's going to be a bunch of cheap stuff to buy as the market will be flooded. Win for me
. Since I never consider getting back what I pay for a model train I don't care if my stuff is worthless. All the stuff will be. Then I can have more.
I actually think this sentiment exemplifies part of why people in our general age group (30s - 40s) and younger aren't avid toy train people.
Basically, I've posted here about how surprising it is to me that almost none of this stuff - even NIB and a few weeks after purchase - holds it's value. The crotchety crowd usually respond with the snide remarks like "why would you think this is an investment." Well, I never thought of it as an investment.
But, it was surprising to me based on life experiences of things purchased purely for enjoyment. For instance, I have a collection of vintage comic books and it's value has increased exponentially over the years. I have vintage signed baseballs and baseball cards and they too have appreciated. I have a collection of Havana cigars and they too have appreciated. I have a nice collection of bourbons and, you guessed it, they too have appreciated. As one more example, I have all my old video game cartridges from the 1980s and 1990s and they are now skyrocketing in value. I didn't buy any of these as an investment. Only for personal enjoyment. But every last one of them has appreciated in value.
Now, compare purchase prices. I bought comic books for 0.25 from the newstand that are now selling for amounts up to $30,000. I bought newstand copies for $1 that now routinely sell for $1,000-3,000. I have $75 into bottles of Pappy Van Winkle from a few years back that I see selling today for several thousand dollars. In comparison, I have $1,500 -$2,000 into a single Vision locomotive that can't be sold for even that initial purchase price & despite being NIB. So, toy trains are a much bigger outlay and do nothing in most cases but drop in value.
The fact is, most folks have limited funds to spend on entertainment, and when spending $1,000 or more on something for entertainment, things that go up in value are often going to be more appealing than things that depreciate.
I work with many millennials. Intelligent, interested in everything and willing to spend money. But they see the intelligence of putting money into things that appreciate in value. Especially when the things are expensive.
Different point: Many news sources report that younger people are less apt to buy houses, preferring apartment life. With limited excess space, O Gauge is a real PITA.
The problem is you are comparing apples to pears. For example, 1980's video games are not a good example, for years those games were selling for a quarter apiece, it is only recently that they have become nostalgia items and collectible, and that is the key, collectibility. At one point post war Lionel trains went crazy, when people decided they were an 'it thing'...at one point beanie babies and the like were skyrocketing in value, then crashed to earth. Havana Cigars are rare because of the US economic embargo (far as I know, they are still illegal in the US); rare wines are expensive, too.
On the other hand, most things lose value when they are used. Buy that state of the art computer today, and even if it still works, it is worth a tiny fraction of what it sold for. Buy a new car, and it depreciates rapidly (the rare exception is exotics that can appreciate from the price you bought it, but they are outliers) Woman I know bought an Audi R8 several years ago (like 3), had maybe 25k miles on it, it was bought for 125k, currently it is worth 40k. Buy that latest gen OLED tv that today costs several thousand, in a couple of years it is worth a couple of hundred.....even with comic books, you have to hit the right ones, not all comic books go up in price, they generally have to be in mint shape and desirable/scarce to become valuable,you buy the typical comic book and then go to sell it (just random), likely you wouldn't even get face value on it.
What you are talking about is buying for collectibility, most people buy for usability. So you bought those bottles of bourbon for 75 bucks, that are now worth a lot more, did you buy them to drink it, or did you buy it speculating it would go up? Most leisure items are not bought to be collectible (well, okay, there are people buying postwar who still think it is going to be worth more than they paid for it, then complain ad infinitum), they are built to be used, which runs contra to collecting it. You buy a car, you generally buy it to drive it, unless you are a collector, and cars in general are not even great investments as classic cars (put it this way, lot of those cars you see at auction going for mega bucks often took more than that to bring them to that kind of shape). Reminds me hearing about people buying certain cars with the idea they were going to appreciate and not driving them (since use is a no no with collecting), then were disappointed when they didn't 'take off', and sold them without even driving them.
Assuming everything you said is accurate, so what? It doesn't change the fact that the toy train hobby is shrinking due to fewer and fewer young people entering or staying in it.
And, not sure where you get your information, but it's not accurate. A few examples:
- Your "video games ... dime apiece" and "at one point Lionel trains went crazy" comments actually support my point. The Lionel trains you mention had a resurgence for a minute, and are now back to being in a buyer's market. The video game hobby, and, you can throw in the comic book hobby example I mentioned too, have seen interest and prices steadily increase. The video game hobby has been steadily expanding for almost 10 years, while the comic book hobby has been steadily expanding for over 60 years. So you're right - apples and pears.
- Your "toy trains are made to be used, but do I use my bottles of bourbon"' comments. Well, I already said I bought the things I mentioned for enjoyment. So yes, I drink and share my bottles. Expanding on your statement, comic books and video games are all meant to be read or "used" as are baseballs and baseball cards. In any event, your "do you use it" rationalization is totally irrelevant. Meaning, so what if millennials don't "use" their bottles of bourbon, comic books or whatever - does that somehow alter the fact that this is where they spend their entertainment money instead of on toy trains?
- Your Havana cigars comments. Vintage Havanas are enjoyed all over the world, where interest and value have steadily appreciated. Large tobacconists in the UK and elsewhere have cellars stocked with sticks from the 1940s, 1950s, etc. You somehow think the entire cigar hobby and the market for these vintage sticks revolves around some unrelated US embargo? Interesting ...
Again, as much as I love my toy trains, the facts remain: toy trains do depreciate starting immediately; and there are very many entertainment options that don't cost anywhere near what a toy train costs and more and more people are spending their money on things other than toy trains. I don't like it, but it's a fact.
Seacoast posted:PJB posted:Seacoast posted:eddie g posted:Seacoast, You really hate the newspapers. I would much rather read the printed newspaper. You miss a lot reading it on line.
Hi Eddie,
I don’t hate newspapers I was just making the comparison. Newspapers are on the decline and the newspaper article on the decline of trains. The author of the article fails to see himself in regards to the decline of the newspaper business. Something you say that means people should not criticize someone else for a fault that they have themselves.
You do realize, of course, that while the printed format might be on the decline, the new business itself - which is the employer of this author and that also makes all news articles available on-line - is alive and well and part of modern civilization ... don't you?
I’m NOT trying to start a fight. I was just making a comparison between newspapers in general which are on the decline. Am I wrong? What is the average age of a Wall Street Journal reader, print or digital? Or better yet your local newspaper? Say 60+ years old -as is the age of the average model railroader according to the National Model Railroad Assoc.
I live north of Boston and the once mighty Boston Globe is no more in either the print or digital format. ”Other interested parties included a group with members of the Taylor family who sold the Globe to the Times back in 1993. The 2016, $70 million sale price shows the paper's staggering drop in value since then, when the Times paid $1.1 billion for the Globe and its other local media properties.”
Seacoast - I totally agree that physical newspaper subscriptions are down - and this is a fact. But I can tell you that I have worked at several Fortune 40 companies and entire departments at all have multiple on-line subs to the WSJ.
But my point was that so many folks here seem to purposely be pointing at weeds instead of looking at the forest. Wasn't meant to be personal. Apologies if it came across that way, sir.
All collectibles are not as popular as in the glorious past: Trains, Royal Daltons, Beanie Babies, Match Box Cars, Political Buttons, Coins, Stamps, Toy Soldiers, Antique Animated Banks.
Who cares? If you are collecting trains as an investment, you're financially toast. The passion for the hobby drives most enthusiasts. Let the kids sell our collections when we are gone. They can go out to dinner and buy a cheeseburger and some appetizers and say how foolish we were. Maybe there will be enough left over for another tatto or body piercing.
Sincerely, John Rowlen
My son also has taken over, and has been for many years, with HO and N. This is despite the fact he (and his wife) are raising a family (4 year old and 5 month old), maintaining a house and working full-time in a career position. He also expressed an interest in a garden railroad and we discussed it over Thanksgiving. The future looks promising.
Mark
When Millennials (I'm one of those) start getting older and dying out en masse all those NES/Genesis games will be worthless again. It's always a cycle on consumer goods.
I don't think the hobby is dying but I do think it is evolving. Seventy years ago Lionel train layouts were in every department store during the Christmas season with sets and individual cars For Sale on nearby shelves. Hobby stores had inventories available all year long, some offering items in two or three gauges. Many kits were available and a lot of scratch built structures and railroad cars were on layouts. Members in the hobby strived to improve their layouts and rolling stock. Cardboard boxes were on the layout to indicate where 'someday I'll afford a three story kit' for the building in that spot. Very few room size layouts were built. One of my uncles had a 30 x 3 HO switching layout without scenery. The track was perfect and we spent many an hour solving switching problems. It was in an unfinished attic, cold in the winter and warm in the summer. As long as the running gear was oiled and the brushes on the motors changed every few years those engines ran forever. No modern electronics, just hand throttle with bell and whistle. The kids didn't care, they were spending time with their dad and uncles.
As larger homes were built, space for room size layouts became available. Jerry Williams foresaw the market and offered 15" heavyweight passenger car sets then 17" sets. Maury Kline followed suit, then others. Switch yards with eight and ten tracks, engine service areas with roundhouses, caboose ready tracks, four track coal loading areas were not unusual, neither were 20' passing sidings.
Today, many more manufacturers offer a much wider choice of ready to run rolling stock and plug in buildings. Some lack quality, but with a low price have garnered a following. On3 is growing as people down size but want to stay in the hobby. Yesterday's 35 x 45 layout becomes a 9 x 12 operating layout in the new condo. With a smaller layout and time on their hands, modelers' new displays show quality engines and rolling stock with detailed structures and similar scenery.
John in Lansing, ILL
RATTLER21,
Absolutely agree...
MELGAR
You would think the WSJ would be more concerned with the sad state of the nation's newspapers instead of the toy train hobby. the hobby will endure although it will evolve in to different forms and maybe smaller numbers but it will be around. Newspaper ???
jim pastorius posted:You would think the WSJ would be more concerned with the sad state of the nation's newspapers instead of the toy train hobby. the hobby will endure although it will evolve in to different forms and maybe smaller numbers but it will be around. Newspaper ???
Exactly Jim
This thread started almost three years ago.
plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
Farmer_Bill posted:This thread started almost three years ago.
plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
Well said Farmer Bill - I’m guilty..
Some people are always grumbling because roses have thorns; I am thankful that thorns have roses.
A couple of obvious changes. Our model railroading hobby is different things to different people. To the pre-teen child it is a means of learning basic carpentry, electricity and artistic balance from a mentor whether a parent, older sibling, another relative or a friend. To adults with disposable income and extra space, it can be an interesting and unique hobby. To a person who is interested in railroads it can be a way to study the equipment and operations. Years ago, it was impossible to drive through a major city without being stopped by a train. Today you can drive for weeks and not have to stop for a train. Kids do not grow up counting cars in the train as it went by, they rarely see a train at a grade crossing. Some layouts are works of art, a medium in which the artists express themselves. Some the equivalent of masters oils, other resemble the way I paint. Years ago many hobbyists spent hours assembling kits or scratch building rolling stock. Layouts were built after sketching a track plan and going at it. No need for computer assisted planning. If the tracks didn't quite mate, the pieces were taken apart and worked on until they did. I don't know the numbers, but I'd venture a guess that less than five percent of the dollars spent in model railroading is for kits or scratch building supplies. How many Forum members have an inventory of freight and passenger trucks? How many have a few kits to work on in their spare time? Years ago, it was not unusual for someone in our hobby to have shelves of kits for boxcars, gondolas, hoppers, passenger cars. Reading postings in various forums, there are far more messages about computer applications than assembling kits. The hobby has changed. John in Lansing, ILL
John makes some very interesting and, IMO, valid points.
He mentions pre-teens, but what about toddlers and pre-toddlers? I have alluded to this before in some of my prior comments on this Forum, but I believe for such infants and young children to play with trains, can be very stimulating for them, and might contribute to the development of their brains. Playing with blocks, playing with Brio trains, reading to children, and other stimulating activities might do the same thing.
O Gauge trains are so multi-faceted (putting together the track, the switches, the accessories the electricity, etc.), they can be especially stimulating to young children. What also makes the trains special is that the adult with the child and the child can be equally engaged, excited and stimulated, which is very positive for both of them.
rattler21 posted:Years ago, it was not unusual for someone in our hobby to have shelves of kits for boxcars, gondolas, hoppers, passenger cars. Reading postings in various forums, there are far more messages about computer applications than assembling kits. The hobby has changed. John in Lansing, ILL
Well, I still have a pretty good backlog of kits and projects lurking around the basement...
The electronics aspect is also expanding in the magazines. It seems (to me at least) the NMRA Bulletin and Model Railroader have both increased their electronics content over the past few years. A sure sign that running the models has gotten more complicated than building them.
I just plopped a 50+ year old low-end American Flyer train (that hasn't been run in 20 years) on track on the floor for the holidays. With the exception of having to clean the wheels, it ran like a champ right away.
Train, track, two wires, transformer, no muss, no fuss. Will the current stuff be able to do the same in 50 years? 20 years?
Rusty
Rusty Traque posted:I just plopped a 50+ year old low-end American Flyer train (that hasn't been run in 20 years) on track on the floor for the holidays. With the exception of having to clean the wheels, it ran like a champ right away.
Train, track, two wires, transformer, no muss, no fuss. Will the current stuff be able to do the same in 50 years? 20 years?
Rusty
My command control engines aren't able to run without muss and fuss NOW.
Rusty Traque posted:I just plopped a 50+ year old low-end American Flyer train (that hasn't been run in 20 years) on track on the floor for the holidays. With the exception of having to clean the wheels, it ran like a champ right away.Train, track, two wires, transformer, no muss, no fuss. Will the current stuff be able to do the same in 50 years? 20 years?
Rusty
Agreed & two thumbs up for simplicity! 
Tom
Rusty Traque posted:Will the current stuff be able to do the same in 50 years? 20 years?
I don't see why not. The Lionel TMCC and MTH stuff I had as a kid was stored in boxes for about 10 years while I was in high school, college, and grad school. Took it out, put it on the track, and it ran fine. Electronics either work or they don't. There is no futzing like with something that's electro-mechanical.
Everyone is all gloom and doom. Enjoy your trains and don't worry about it. Life is short 
.
anyone who has seen a real steam engine run especially kids is hooked--and when the UP rolls out the big boy it will really boost the hobby
20centuryhudson posted:anyone who has seen a real steam engine run especially kids is hooked--and when the UP rolls out the big boy it will really boost the hobby
Somehow, I doubt that.
The majority of the public will ooooh and aaaah, then they will go home and the 4014 will go home and wait for its next outing.
Rusty
Wanna bet
So, how much did the hobby grow after non-hobby people saw 4449, 3985, 1218, 911, 844, 765 or 261 in operation?
Rusty
probably a fair amount--ill bet a lot of new people came in to the hobby because of these engines being out and running--kids especially---if you have ever been to Strasburg and seen the kids around that steam engine you would know
20centuryhudson posted:probably a fair amount--ill bet a lot of new people came in to the hobby because of these engines being out and running--kids especially---if you have ever been to Strasburg and seen the kids around that steam engine you would know
I saw lots of kids around flock around when I was engineer or fireman on IRM's Russian Decapod or Shay. Doesn't mean they all ran home and became model railroaders.
And yes, I've also been to Strasburg...
Rusty
Rusty Traque posted:So, how much did the hobby grow after non-hobby people saw 4449, 3985, 1218, 911, 844, 765 or 261 in operation?
I would doubt any of these engines 'made' many normal folks into model railroaders. Anyone in the hobby was going to be so for the most part without either encountering one or not. If that's all it took, then the steam engines at Disney's parks are far more responsible for making model railroaders than any of the above-named locomotives.
As for betting, yeah, I'd be willing to bet a lot that 4014 won't create an appreciable number of new model railroaders than weren't already going to be such on their own without ever having seen a UP 4000 in operation.
Encountering a steam locomotive for the first time for someone previously not into 1:1 or scale trains would be a triggering effect to starting into the hobby, not something that's going to get one rolling all on its own.
