Which manufacturer will be left doing O-Scale/O-gauge?

I did not know Atlas is leaving.....must have missed that announcement.  Maybe it's HOW they do business and not product?? Menards seems to do OK....but they have no lead time or huge lists of cancelled items. The death of O scale has been greatly exaggerated.  

AMCDave posted:

The death of O scale has been greatly exaggerated.  

I guess you are not old enough to remember 1968. The Lionel catalog had the same cover as 1967 and was maybe eight pages. Only one set of trains were available. The biggest joke was the line "the greatest train set of all time". It was a #2029 steam engine set. Lionel was selling existing inventory and only offered two engines and a few cars. There was no MTH, Weaver or Atlas other than two rail junk. Walthers and a few others still had O scale kits. Now that year seemed to be the end of O gauge trains. We still have so much more. Don 

This has come up every now and then. The sky is falling in O Gauge. I have been in it since the 60's and every few years the same subject keeps coming up. 

Lets just enjoy what we have and let the future take care of itself.

"With the recent death of Weaver Models, and the now-same questions about Atlas"

What questions? Have I missed an Atlas crisis?

Atlas bought the Weaver tooling for high end cars made overseas.   That includes the H30A covered hopper, Milwaukee ribside Box, B&O roundroof Box,  the troop sleeper series, and Pullman-bradley passenger cars.    There are probably a few others.    They may not be dead yet.

As for "2 rail junk", hmmm - the 2 rail stuff has always been more to scale than the Lionel stuff, especially in the 50s and 60s.    the Lionel was very very undersize - more like S Scale on O gauge track.    I built many of the Walthers, Quality Craft (weaver made craftsman kits first), Ambroid, Labelle, and Mainline Kits.    They made great SCALE cars and some still do.    Labelle is still around and Mainline is part of "Ye Old Huff and PUff".      Once you see the difference between Scale O stuff and the toy trains such as Menards is pushing, you probably won't want to go back.

By the way, Sunset has been around longer than MTH I think.    The company was started by  Mort Mann, Scott's father I think in the 1970s.   They morphed the name into "Sunset 3rd Rail" about the time Scott started to move into the business.

PRRJIM, you miss my point. I'm talking about three rail not scale. If Lionel would have gone out of business there would be nothing for us then. Your right about not wanting to go back, who would. I'm into scale three rail now and selling most of my old Lionel stuff. I made a few Walthers shorty passenger cars and some freight but that was about all there was. Altas didn't offer anything in three rail and it didn't pull well because of it's weight on two rail track. Yes, it was scale but so what. A three rail guy couldn't use it. Don

Oh, boy...l need to be out proselyting...knocking on doors with printed leaflets....How does this sound?

1) Do you have a hobby or pass time that can interest you year after year? 

2) Do your kids have hobbies beside staring at their phone or in the refrigerator, or playing video games?

3) Do you like to explore America, it's backroads and history?

4) If a woman answers: subsitute "your husband" for "you" for #1, and ask, "Is your husband a couch potato who needs an interest besides the boob tube and sending food orders to the kitchen"

Now since l had a between schoolyears job of delivering phonebooks, l could mention some of the hazards of knocking on doors...so let me know how this works out?

Actually ,my money is on atlas o......those 53' gunderson  stack cars are just plain outstanding....

"the Lionel was very very undersize - more like S Scale on O gauge track." 

Mostly under 1:48, yes; "Like S scale", uh, no. Much larger (I'm speaking of main product line stuff, not oddball bottom-feeder stuff; don't know about that).

American flyer made Pre-War O-gauge. The earlier items were of a RailKing Imperial heft. Later AF did indeed make true S-scale/O-gauge locos, which were placed on S-gauge chassis after WWII. Marx made 3/16" scale (S-Scale) O-gauge equipment.

S-scale is pretty small. On30 small.

============

But - still wondering - is Atlas a troubled company? Is there a "word on the street"?

Bottom line. The o guage market is lock, stock and barrel owned by Lionel. It is THE name in O gauge trains. Without it, the market will wither on the vine. 

MTH can attempt and may succeed in numbers of sales to be number one however any newby into the hobby referrs o guage to Lionel. Just look at the standard guage trains. Lionel may have lost the lawsuit but they won by incorporating their name to the majority manufacturer of those trains as well. Even at O Scale clubs there isn't a day without someone saying something or referring to Lionel Trains. Same goes with the smaller scale clubs. Go-to any club that hosts an open house and someone in the general public with tell a story about a Lionel train.

Even if they shut their doors, that name will live on! Like Coca Cola! 

Would think that as us baby boomers age out and pass away that there will eventually be very little interest in 'toy' O gauge trains for the most part. Menards may be capturing the last vestiges of interest in that market today but 10 - 15 years from now, will the young people entering the hobby be interested in what for many of us has been 'the nostalgia factor'?

Granted, the Thomas phenomena that brings so many youngsters in could possibly instill a whimsical aspect that might stay with some and that 's great. The continuing Polar Express appeal could as well. Notice that the Berk in the film is a terrific 'scale' model too!

Most likely, scale proportioned trains of all sizes will continue to have universal appeal which will bode well for Lionel, MTH, Atlas, and 3rd Rail. If the number of 'toy train enthusiasts' declines sharply for whatever reasons, that should leave 3rd Rail at or near the top. Lionel and MTH may have to cut way back to meet the market at that time. If the toy part collapses, it could bring down the big boys here. If Scale is still strong percentage wise, 3rd Rail will be in the best position business wise as their main focus and investment is the advancement of 2/3 rail scale O gauge.

I also belong to a large HO club south of Asheville about an hour away that has 100 members, most of whom participate regularly. The greatest portion are fellas well over 60-65 with only a few active junior members and very few between the ages of 25-50. 

In contrast, our O gauge club has had only 4 active members for the past year since we moved to our permanent location and are working on a large layout. Hopefully, when finished and operational we'll pick up a few more folks, but in this region, 3 rail O gaugers are few and far between!

These are just my thoughts and observations...

Answer – Lionel

 I guess there will always be the general model railroader toy folks who have no specifics in the hobby and just seek the enjoyment for themselves and family as a past time. In other words, O gauge will survive, O scale wont.

Lionel wins by name. Deeper pockets and resources.

Why all the gloom and doom. I entered the ogauge hobby at age 37. The hobby will outlast all of us.

Rod Miller

As someone relatively new to the hobby - I was surprised to find there were so many players in the O Gauge game.

Of course I knew LIONEL - but didn't know the market was as competitive as it seems to be.

My 5 year old grandson was here yesterday - and asked "Can we run the trains Pappy?" - I think the hobby is safe!

You might not make a hobbyist out of them right away - I was 50 before I really got into it - but trains are like religion, expose kids to it when they are young and eventually they come back to the fold!

Hi Folks,

The overseas market should also be considered.  The O scale market is robust in England and Europe based upon my reading in European and English model railroading magazines.  MTH, Bachmann, ETS and others are making trains for this market.  I think O scale / gauge will be with us for many more years.

NH Joe

Does Atlas have issues? Sure, but I do love their products. I'm a buyer.

scale rail posted:

I guess you are not old enough to remember 1968. The Lionel catalog had the same cover as 1967 and was maybe eight pages. Only one set of trains were available. The biggest joke was the line "the greatest train set of all time". It was a #2029 steam engine set. Lionel was selling existing inventory and only offered two engines and a few cars. There was no MTH, Weaver or Atlas other than two rail junk. Walthers and a few others still had O scale kits. Now that year seemed to be the end of O gauge trains. We still have so much more. Don 

I remember when the department stores had  huge displays of Lionel and American Flyer; Christmas layouts which filled street-level display windows, hobby stores all over town which stocked toy trains, etc ... back in the 1950's.  Popularity grew once again not that long ago when we baby boomers finally got the money to buy the trains of our childhood dreams.

But now we are hitting that wall of having rooms full of trains, hundreds of cars, if not a thousand items in boxes, under tables, on shelves, and on the layouts.  Have the money, but no desire to buy more.

Friends are in the same boat; reaching the late 60's and 70's, thinking more about what happens to them after we are gone, then buying more and more of the same.

The hobby is shrinking, no doubt about it, and the cost of  new top line locomotives hitting $2,000 ... nope, we've hit the wall, as have many who are just going to play it out with what they have already.

Your mileage may vary of course ... ;-)

SIRT posted:

Answer – Lionel

 I guess there will always be the general model railroader toy folks who have no specifics in the hobby and just seek the enjoyment for themselves and family as a past time.

Lionel wins by name. Deeper pockets and resources.

 

Lionel may have deeper pockets... however they seem to assume that their customers have deep pockets as well.  This assumption could very well price them themselves out of the toy train business.

If Menards starts making engines they could, in time, be even a bigger factor then they are right now.

If Atlas can clean up the O-Scale line deliveries they will survive.  I wish them well.

Kerrigan posted:

With the recent death of Weaver Models, and the now-same questions about Atlas ... with the declining market for these products (kids are not flocking to the hobby as in olden days,) ... when all the smoke settles, who will be left?

Just the Big Two?  MTH and Lionel?

Or will 3rd Rail/Sunset be the dark horse in this race .... ?

What's your money on?

The highlighted text is a false equivalence at best. Atlas does not live by O scale alone, and even though they are having production issues, they put out some of the best models on the market. They even bought some of the Weaver tooling, making this line of reasoning all the more ridiculous.

Over the existence of toy trains, countless manufacturers have come and gone. Bing, Dorfan, Ives, Hafner, American Flyer, just to name a few, and the hobby has survived. In the end, does it really matter?

My MONEY is on buying trains I like, and I don't care who makes them, period.

FWIW, Weaver did not die.  Joe being a car guy wanted to smell the roses and was able to retire the way he wanted to do.  

Kids are well represented at Chares Ro.  You can go in the store at any time and see many.  The MTH DCS Wi-Fi has captured many kids with the new APP.   I see the hobby as being very strong.  When MTH shows the new starter sets, my bet is they will be a huge hit.   I feel we are in a good time in the hobby.  Yes, things are costly.   Product is available for persons at many economic stages.

"Lionel may have deeper pockets... however they seem to assume that their customers have deep pockets as well.  This assumption could very well price them themselves out of the toy train business."

We might remember that the vast bulk of Lionel sales are of sets and entry and mid-level products like LionChief +.  They are the least expensive sets and locomotives in the marketplace in most cases.  They are the only three rail provider that is making trains that benefit from the Thomas/Polar Express popular culture phenomena.  Lionel is the only mainstream supplier of toys, as opposed to serious hobbyist products.  IF the market contracts significantly they have the best chance of continued success if they don't screw it up .

3rd Rail is a family business with a handful of employees.  MTH is a family business with a few dozen employees.  Those businesses are hard to sustain over multiple generations unless they become publicly owned enterprises.  I don't know what the succession plan is, if there is one, but that will determine their fates, in large part over the coming decades.  3rd rail doesn't make track, transformers, buildings, rolling stock or electronics.  I think they will be first to disappear unless they have a succession plan.  They depend on Lionel for locomotive electronics.  That's another possible vulnerability. 

Atlas has robust HO and N businesses, so they will be more resilient even if the three rail market collapses.  They could abandon O gauge (perhaps except for track) and they'd be potentially fine.

MTH is in a good position for the short haul as they have experienced management and a full product line.  They have attempted to diversify into HO and large scale (and S) with modest success.  Large scale is in trouble as a market place for some reasons, and HO is somewhat resistant to MTH's relatively high prices.  MTH's main challenge is likely to be some sort of succession plan for what is now, I believe, a sole proprietor business, although that may be a decade or two down the road.  When Mike Wolf leaves the scene, one way or the other, as did Joshua Cowen and AC Gilbert, what happens then?  Wait and see.

Perhaps my tastes have changed, but I think the Menards offerings are kind of at a middle ground as far as "toy train" and "scale" are concerned. Yes most of their rolling stock is O27 size but they quality of their offerings is almost as good as anything else you can find for that price range (which isn't much now...). Plus they do have a few scale cars. Even with the new stack cars running at $50 that's still cheaper than most other comparable cars. Heck most O27 cars made by Lionel and MTH are over that today.

I think something can be said for both scale and traditional equipment, and there always will be a demand for both. I have both, and I have to say that right now I'm having more fun with the Menards offerings. I have a lot of scale stuff, but my desire to shell out $80 for one scale freight car only happens once or twice a year now. I like the idea of spending the same about to get two or three cars.

Now that I have a Lionel Legacy F40, my desire to buy new locomotives has pretty much dried up. I'm more interested in finding older, conventional engines to convert to TMCC and/or possibly repaint. Scale with all the bells and whistles doesn't necessarily matter to me now, so long as the "fun" factor is there. I find I have just as much (maybe more) enjoyment out of the non-scale O27 stuff that I do running scale stuff.

I have a feeling a lot of other people are going to go this route too, the less expensive/fun stuff as opposed to $1000 scale locomotives and $100 scale freight cars. I think in that respect Menards is winning big time. There will always be a demand for scale trains and I don't want that to ever go away, but to survive train companies will have to keep offering less expensive stuff for people who don't to spend the big bucks. And they'll have to start improving or perhaps doing away with the whole BTO/preorder process. One huge plus to Menards is that their products are ready to ship as soon as they're announced. People are getting tired of waiting months, sometimes years for products to be released. And that might arrive with defects right out of the box. Plus people don't like feeling pressured to preorder something because it's BTO and they may not get a chance to get it otherwise. Whoever smooths out this process will be the winners in my book. Like the above posts have said, if Menards starts making locomotives this could change the game drastically.

MY prediction is that the hobby in the near future is doing just great, at lest at my house in any case. 

Of course when I close my eyes things may change a little when my wife takes over. In that case I have a feeling there will be a few bargains to be had.  

At that point in time I just wont care anymore.

Kerrigan posted:

I remember when the department stores had  huge displays of Lionel and American Flyer; Christmas layouts which filled street-level display windows, hobby stores all over town which stocked toy trains, etc ... back in the 1950's. 

This is a much more telling comment on the current state of affairs. The hobby isn't going away, the outlets where trains were traditionally sold are the ones dropping like flies. Hobby stores are drying up, and within the next 20 years, department stores and perhaps even malls will be a thing of the past. We have found different ways to shop. We are a good 60+ years removed from those glory days. Sad but true.

D500 posted:

"With the recent death of Weaver Models, and the now-same questions about Atlas"

What questions? Have I missed an Atlas crisis?

No, you didn't. There was some wild conjecture on another thread or two about the health of Atlas O, given some Chinese manufacturing issues and various delays they've experienced in getting certain products shipped. There were a few who began speculating that this could be the beginning of the end for Atlas O. ("I heard him cough. He must be dying.") Mr. Muffin came in at one thread and pointed out that, far from being on its last legs, in fact all the Atlas product he gets is sold out, and people need to pre-order it to be sure they get what they want. That kind of cooled the sky-is-falling enthusiasts. Apparently this sillyness has now morphed into someone wondering if the hobby is dying and if manufacturers are in a "last man standing" mode.

Another example of how rumors and speculation with no basis in reality can build and attain a life of their own, and even become fact for some people. 

Next thing you know, someone will tell us Dorfan Trains went out of business. How silly can you get. Talk about rumors! I still have my pre-order in. Don

Lionel...next question

I find threads like this much like some of the Facebook rock band specific groups I used to be a member of.  So much conjecture about who would replace who is someone died in the band and nothing other than hot air to back it up.  Negative attitudes lead to negative outcomes.  I simply enjoy my trains as I have continuously over the last 42 years of my life since I got my first set at 6.  It was a Tyco HO set.  Where are they these days?  Gone.  Does it affect how I enjoy the hobby?  No. 

Run trains for the public and you will see the enthusiasm that children still have for the hobby.  The railroad club building at the Scottsdale Railroad Park has seen over 1,000,000 visitors since it opened in 2011 and is open 363 days a year. 

The death of this hobby is hugely exaggerated. 

Clearly, you O gauge/scale guys aren't used to living on the edge like us S gaugers/scalers....

Rusty

I got back in the hobby in 2011 and I am still amazed by the quantity and quality of the O gauge trains and accessories available. Things are looking pretty good to me for this part of the hobby. I also have a LHS that has O gauge as their main gauge (and some of all the other gauges too) and they just moved into a new space that is maybe 4 times larger than the one they moved out from. That looks very good to me as well! So I am pretty optimistic about it all. 

We also have a couple of other train shops around here, but they are HO & N only. There is one other O gauge shop, but they have very little stock and many items are priced above MSRP. 

I've always wondered if we have reached the tipping point on whether or not most of us can afford this stuff.   For me anyway, buying new/pre-ordering is getting less and less.  Time will tell.  

As for what I call the glory days of O gauge in the early to mid 2000. Will we ever see that again?  Again time will tell, I do know one thing.  We are no where close to the way thing we're in the late 1960''s and for me anyway the dark times (1970 to the late 1990's) until MTH! TMCC, KLINE, and other things came along where trains became fun and exciting for me anyway

This threads get sillier each time they pop up.  There are some good posts, but most are the same "know it all know nothings" who declare just how it is and who is what.  It is mildly entertaining in a sad watching a train wreck sort of way.

O is fine, model railroading is fine.  Not a hobby out there whether growing or contracting is the same as it was in 1965.

I am so happy that our only worry in life is will the ogauge market survive.

Rod Miller

gg1man posted:

MY prediction is that the hobby in the near future is doing just great, at lest at my house in any case. 

Of course when I close my eyes things may change a little when my wife takes over. In that case I have a feeling there will be a few bargains to be had.  

At that point in time I just wont care anymore.

My wife has been in Ohio caring for her aging father for two months.  

The hobby is thriving at my house.  ;-)

Curt

IMO,  If every mfg and importer closed their doors tomorrow, from my sources, there is such a large glut of 0 gauge stock on shelves of stores and warehouses that it could supply years of 0 gauge sales.

And that is not counting the hoards of excess stuff under beds and in closets of additive RRers who find significance in scarfing up every new paint scheme offered.

Not only that, most of the 0 gauge vendors I know have hundreds of  excess cars that they would love to move out.  I find the best deals out there is in firehouse train shows.

Let's be honest, most of us have a stupid supply of everything.  Me included.  Got so much stuff I have been giving it away to reach a manageable level.  Pricing is so depressed it is not worth the hassell of dragging it to a train show.

New Atlas freight cars in an unopened boxes priced from  $25 - $35 remain unsold, no offers, not a good sign.

First of all, things are way, way better today in all scales than they were when I entered the hobby around 1980. Oh the compromises one would have to make to fill a whole layout back then. Even in HO it was hard to find prototypical models in any road name other than major class 1's, and even those required kit bashing and modifications to make anything other than a generic non road specific model of a widely used prototype. In o gauge, it was very difficult to find scale sized equipment and ready to run quality 2 rail o scale trains were rare, if they even existed at all. During the 80s and even through the mid 90s I bought many trains that were only close enough to what I really wanted, because there just wasn't much selection.  While we may not have production level seen during the mid 2000s any more, the world of model trains in any scale is still a paradise of choices when compared with what we were faced with 30 or 40 years ago. 

Secondly, What people don't seem to mention much is that a lot of this increase in choice comes from improved production methods that allow manufacturers to make smaller production runs. Thus, even if only 100 people want an engine, it might be possible to make it, versus the thousands of sales required years ago. This came about because of lower cost high quality production at foreign factories. Next, 3D printing is beginning to revolutionize the hobby. There already is a g gauge company in Europe that is making very limited runs of plastic trains of unique prototypes that have not been cost effective to make using conventional tooling. 3D printing is used to make unique parts of any quantity needed. True, these trains are expensive, but they were not available at all before, except maybe in high cost and very limited run brass.  Speaking of which, more companies are moving to more limited productions - Lionel and LGB in g gauge come to mind. Utilizing new techniques they can make models at lower quantities than normal albeit at higher price points.  So, even in a shrinking hobby, it is still possible to make new models as it becomes profitable to do very low production runs. Thus, O gauge and other less common scales may survive even with a shrinking participation.