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I remember going to an O Scale (not 3 Rail) show with my mom and dad, probably in the 1980s, and they were whispering to each other, "Look how old everybody is... This ain't gonna last 5 years...." 

Here we are nearly 40 years later. And still, everyone at the O Scale shows is really old. But I think 3 things are happening to continue supporting this hobby as long as our economy supports it:

1. People are living longer.

2. Younger customers, while not as many as before, are coming up in the ranks from HO, as they always have.

3. Technology is improving making it easier to produce model of greater quality and less quantity, albeit more expensive.

I told my boys the same thing my Dad told me. Go out and make your mark in your own career before you can consider to work at the business. I don't see great growth potential with our market as it is. So I don't want them focusing on working in this industry.

It was different for me in 1997. I had been working in Aerospace and startups for 15 years and wanted to run my own business.  Dad had already broken into the 3 Rail market which at the time was on fire. We would announce a project and 500 orders would come flying in. You couldn't make the models fast enough. Everyone (Importers) was doing well. But that was the peak, year 2000. Dad needed help overseas supervising the construction and engineering. He had been going over there on his own since 1974 and he had some health issues. So it was a good timing and a good fit. We grew Sunset Models in that market and things were fine for many years, and still are.

Today, market growth is difficult, and there may be a point when the market doesn't match the cost of production and then the business stops. But until then I will keep plugging away at it.  One think I learned about business is that the only constant in business is change. Keep moving with the change and you can keep going. Get rigid in your beliefs and your place in the market and you will find yourself out.

We went into the European market years ago. We saw what was possible and did it. Then we got out. We have been in N, HO, HOn3, S, G and of course O Scale. There are a lot of companies out there supplying these markets. One trend I see are factories selling direct into their markets. Bachmann is owned by Kadarr in China.  They also bought the Williams label. It's more efficient that way and that's probably how the bigger companies will survive going forward, factory direct.

As for Sunset Models / 3rd Rail and GGD, we are a boutique model producer /  importer, and we can expand and contract with this market or that.  It can be in a warehouse with employees or at home with just me and my wife. That's how my Dad ran the business for the first 5 years.

As long as we are having fun, we will keep producing models for interested customers. For me, my hobby is running this business. Can't ask for a better job.

Because of Dad's history with Heart Disease, I got scanned and checked recently. The Cardio said I would live to 105. I said, that's too long. 90s enough. So I got 36 years of model making to go...

 

Last edited by sdmann

Me thinks a 3-D F-7 door stop is right around the corner. 

A 3-D  detailed N & W Allegheny?    Maybe the very basic shell but it will still need Scott's experienced crew to assemble a precision smooth runner  with a score of added widgets and due-hickies. 

IMO, the best you will get with a 3-D steam engine would be a post war Lionel blob of metal.

I believe Scott has a lock on his facet of the industry.

c.sam posted:

Would think that as us baby boomers age out and pass away that there will eventually be very little interest in 'toy' O gauge trains for the most part. Menards may be capturing the last vestiges of interest in that market today but 10 - 15 years from now, will the young people entering the hobby be interested in what for many of us has been 'the nostalgia factor'?

Granted, the Thomas phenomena that brings so many youngsters in could possibly instill a whimsical aspect that might stay with some and that 's great. The continuing Polar Express appeal could as well. Notice that the Berk in the film is a terrific 'scale' model too!

Most likely, scale proportioned trains of all sizes will continue to have universal appeal which will bode well for Lionel, MTH, Atlas, and 3rd Rail. If the number of 'toy train enthusiasts' declines sharply for whatever reasons, that should leave 3rd Rail at or near the top. Lionel and MTH may have to cut way back to meet the market at that time. If the toy part collapses, it could bring down the big boys here. If Scale is still strong percentage wise, 3rd Rail will be in the best position business wise as their main focus and investment is the advancement of 2/3 rail scale O gauge.

I also belong to a large HO club south of Asheville about an hour away that has 100 members, most of whom participate regularly. The greatest portion are fellas well over 60-65 with only a few active junior members and very few between the ages of 25-50. 

In contrast, our O gauge club has had only 4 active members for the past year since we moved to our permanent location and are working on a large layout. Hopefully, when finished and operational we'll pick up a few more folks, but in this region, 3 rail O gaugers are few and far between!

These are just my thoughts and observations...

I would consider MTH in a good position. They are manufacturers in every scale with the exception of N and Z, they have a foothold in the European model train market, and they make most of their Premier Line engines in 2 rail and 3 rail. Most importantly, their prices are better than Lionel and their locomotives and control system is better than Lionel.

The problem with this hobby is that it was always for the rich kids and now there are even less parents with disposable income for toys. We had a train set growing up but it was a simple oval with a plastic house or two. Most parents were not about to spend hundreds of dollars for toys of any sorts. 

What will hurt the companies even more is that now they moved all their manufacturing to China and use slave labor but yet their prices remain insanely high. If you ask a kid what would he rather have, a new toy or a hundred dollar piece of switch track, it's a pretty simple choice.

A locomotive should now cost about a hundred bucks, track should be a dollar or 2 and a freight car maybe 5 bucks since everything is basically made of junk plastic. O gauge will always be around but most people will only buy starter sets and leave it at that. 

 

Last edited by Babajaga
Rusty Traque posted:
Babajaga posted:

 

A locomotive should now cost about a hundred bucks, track should be a dollar or 2 and a freight car maybe 5 bucks since everything is basically made of junk plastic. 

 

You can't even get HO or N for those prices today.

Rusty

Oh I know, the prices are crazy. Luckily Craigslist has O gauge stuff for pennies on the dollar which is where most of my purchases come from. I recently bout a a huge tote with 2 trains, a few remote switches, 100 ft. of track, automatic crossing gates and some other stuff for $200. Places like Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist makes the hobby much more affordable. 

Last edited by Babajaga
MartyE posted:

Just curious with MTH upper management made up of Mike, Andy, and Rich Foster, who would be in line to take over the company.  These guys have been with Mike forever and much like us don't want to work forever.  Are there other folks there that would take over the reigns?

I'm sure they have a bench to choose candidates from.

MartyE posted:

Just curious with MTH upper management made up of Mike, Andy, and Rich Foster, who would be in line to take over the company.  These guys have been with Mike forever and much like us don't want to work forever.  Are there other folks there that would take over the reigns?

Do any of those folks have any kids? I would hate to see MTH go out like Weaver, with no one to carry on the business. That would be a BIG loss to the hobby, IMO. From what I have read they all went to school together. I have always thought that was really something neat as well. The fact that they all stuck together for so long and all now work for Mike I think is pretty cool.

Also, I'm in the same boat with Bobby Ogauge above, I would guess that 85% of my trains are MTH. Not that I don't like Lionel, but MTH just makes a LOT more stuff in my chosen road name. The others just have an item or two every now and then.

Marty Fitzhenry posted:

FWIW, Weaver did not die.  Joe being a car guy wanted to smell the roses and was able to retire the way he wanted to do.  

Kids are well represented at Chares Ro.  You can go in the store at any time and see many.  The MTH DCS Wi-Fi has captured many kids with the new APP.   I see the hobby as being very strong.  When MTH shows the new starter sets, my bet is they will be a huge hit.   I feel we are in a good time in the hobby.  Yes, things are costly.   Product is available for persons at many economic stages.

Any truth in the rumor he tried to sell but had no takers so shut it down?

rtr12 posted:

Do any of those folks have any kids? I would hate to see MTH go out like Weaver, with no one to carry on the business. That would be a BIG loss to the hobby, IMO. From what I have read they all went to school together. I have always thought that was really something neat as well. The fact that they all stuck together for so long and all now work for Mike I think is pretty cool.

Also, I'm in the same boat with Bobby Ogauge above, I would guess that 85% of my trains are MTH. Not that I don't like Lionel, but MTH just makes a LOT more stuff in my chosen road name. The others just have an item or two every now and then.

I'm not saying or even implying that will be the case.  With a company like Lionel we all know they are held by an investment company so there are paths to other leadership within the company or even outside are available.

Mth has always been a private company and a tight knit group which IMO has always been a plus for them.  We all know the primary faces but I didn't know if there were others that could assume the leadership position. 

Joe Congemi posted:
MartyE posted:

Just curious with MTH upper management made up of Mike, Andy, and Rich Foster, who would be in line to take over the company.  These guys have been with Mike forever and much like us don't want to work forever.  Are there other folks there that would take over the reigns?

I'm sure they have a bench to choose candidates from.

Not that simple ...  

Maybe the best guess is the hobby isn't dead, or dying ... but probably not going to experience a lot of growth, and perhaps contract a bit before the dust settles.  Money is also very tight for younger folks and couples ... takes a big dent to order a $1,000 locomotive, or invest $6-7,000 in constructing a fair sized layout.

 

Babajaga posted:

The problem with this hobby is that it was always for the rich kids and now there are even less parents with disposable income for toys. We had a train set growing up but it was a simple oval with a plastic house or two. Most parents were not about to spend hundreds of dollars for toys of any sorts. 

What will hurt the companies even more is that now they moved all their manufacturing to China and use slave labor but yet their prices remain insanely high. If you ask a kid what would he rather have, a new toy or a hundred dollar piece of switch track, it's a pretty simple choice.

A locomotive should now cost about a hundred bucks, track should be a dollar or 2 and a freight car maybe 5 bucks since everything is basically made of junk plastic. O gauge will always be around but most people will only buy starter sets and leave it at that. 

 

We've gifted our three grandsons starter sets over the years, and after a week or two then all ended up dumped in a corner of their garage, ignored and then thrown out after a year or so.

Hope your luck is better with yours.

 

Kerrigan posted:

Maybe the best guess is the hobby isn't dead, or dying ... but probably not going to experience a lot of growth, and perhaps contract a bit before the dust settles.  Money is also very tight for younger folks and couples ... takes a big dent to order a $1,000 locomotive, or invest $6-7,000 in constructing a fair sized layout.

 

To be fair, I don't know of any kids that ever got a 1k loco as a gift. It was never a cheap hobby that is why all kids could only dream about owning a certain train or accessory. Luckily for most young kids now there is railking and lionchief which cost much less than most gadgets.

It's almost like it was always a hobby destined for when you retire and are done with other things like vacations and now have time to buy that expensive train and spend all day building a layout, that is if your kids don't claim your trains for themselves ��

Last edited by Babajaga

Just for jollies I looked up the msrp of my 1950 Santa Fe set, 2161W.  There it was, printed on the end of the box.....$67.50.

So then we go to the official government calculator for the value of a dollar today in comparison to years past.  A 1950 dollar has the same 'power' () as $10.23 today.

Ergo, my set would cost about $690.00+  today.  Train and track, only.

Traditional.  Not scale.

No fancy electronics or sound.  Just an ol' Ray-o-Vac D cell in the horn chamber.

No smoke.

Four operating cars and lighted caboose, though.

Just a perspective.  Something to ruminate about.........or not.

If they were alive, I'd thank Mom & Dad....I mean, Santa...all over again!  ( I remember with the 99.9% mental clarity of an old septuagenarian phart that the box, wrapped in white paper with a red ribbon bow was, indeed, marked to me, "from Santa".)

So, how much did you say that annual, renewable, upgradable subscription for your kid's Blackberry cell phone...with all the giga-giggles required to be socially acceptable...cost you?  Or that nifty  CYBERPowerPC Gamer Ultra GUA610 w/AMD FX-8320 3.5GHz Gaming Computer cost you to put a smile on the kid's face?  Hmmmmmmm?  Or, more simply, the latest/greatest laptop for kindergarten to avoid having Spanky and the rest of the gang snicker...or, better yet, Spanky's parents seethe with envy?

Then, there's trains.   Pricey trains.  

KD

Last edited by dkdkrd

When I was a kid and word got out that the new Lionel Catalog was out at the hobby shop. Everyone raced their bikes to get one. This was in the very early 50's. I knew I would never, ever get the center fold Santa Fe with passenger cars for "only" $89. Most likely never see one even at the hobby shop. It was fun looking at those models but I could wish and ask for a log car, maybe an 027 passenger car or coal loader. I knew our family limits as most of the kids on the block. I don't think a young kid today is any different. They don't want or expect a thousand dollar engine. They want a simple train set of their own. Just a thought. Don

There are a lot of kids (maybe 11-12 & up) around here that have iPhones. I am pretty sure one could get a very nice starter set (and probably some add-on items) for less than an iPhone. And then as dkdkrd says above there are the monthly fees associated with the phone. I bet the first year of iPhone ownership is close to or maybe even above 1k? 

"There are a lot of kids (maybe 11-12 & up) around here that have iPhones."

I don't think the analogy is correct. To those who use them for texting, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, web browsing, email, etc. as well as for telephoning, smart phones are in constant use throughout the waking hours, not to mention as alarm clocks, memo pads, newspapers, etc.  They are central to the lives of younger people and lots of older people.  A toy train is something one might play with for 15-30 minutes a day, maximum.  Older people not involved in smart phone usage may look down on this way of living as it is so different from what we did and many still do, but this approach to being alive is a reality for many if not most children and young adults.  

Not only for young adults.  I'm in my 40's and my cell phone has become an integral part of my business though social networking, managing multiple email accounts for multiple business lines, and for business travel without having to bring a computer.  It's my watch, my calendar, my phone book, and when needed I can open AutoCAD files and use Word, Excel, and Powerpoint.  Granted it's a tiny surface, but when traveling light is necessary, it the way to go.

Trains and the children I see who enjoy them often have a mentor who guides them through the hobby.  Like any good mentor relationship, both the mentor and the mentored learn together.

Landsteiner posted:

" I'm in my 40's"

That's young in my book .  I'm 20-25 years older, and my phone is used in very similar ways to those you describe.  I also like toy trains.

My father is the same age and he also loves his tech items. But he also built us our first computer when they first came out for the public while others were probably saying computers are evil and unnecessary.

Some people have jobs were they adapt to technology faster and with open arms while people like my grandparents had laborer jobs without the need for technology and never even owned a car.

Last edited by Babajaga
Babajaga posted:
Landsteiner posted:

" I'm in my 40's"

That's young in my book .  I'm 20-25 years older, and my phone is used in very similar ways to those you describe.  I also like toy trains.

My father is the same age and he also loves his tech items. But he also built us our first computer when they first came out for the public while others were probably saying computers are evil and unnecessary.

Some people have jobs were they adapt to technology faster and with open arms while people like my grandparents had laborer jobs without the need for technology and never even owned a car.

My dad sounds similar.  He turns 75 in September and is my computer tech, train tech, and still my counselor when I need solid logical advice.  He loves to repair trains, has fixed several "bad" Protosounds locomotives, and upgraded several others.  He still builds HO steam locomotive kits.  He repairs everything computer related down to iPhones, iPads, any brand and type of computer and other electronics.  My mom yelled at him when I was in high school because the dryer broke and had been simply repairing for over 20 years.  She wanted a new one.  It helped he spent 25 years with Bell Labs.  We had the first DOS computer in my community, a Zenith Heathkit. 

However, he refuses to get a smart phone.  Go figure! 

I enjoy fixing things myself, but career and life don't give me the time.

Now back to the regularly scheduled topic.  What were we talking about? 

GG1 4877 posted:
Babajaga posted:
Landsteiner posted:

" I'm in my 40's"

That's young in my book .  I'm 20-25 years older, and my phone is used in very similar ways to those you describe.  I also like toy trains.

My father is the same age and he also loves his tech items. But he also built us our first computer when they first came out for the public while others were probably saying computers are evil and unnecessary.

Some people have jobs were they adapt to technology faster and with open arms while people like my grandparents had laborer jobs without the need for technology and never even owned a car.

My dad sounds similar.  He turns 75 in September and is my computer tech, train tech, and still my counselor when I need solid logical advice.  He loves to repair trains, has fixed several "bad" Protosounds locomotives, and upgraded several others.  He still builds HO steam locomotive kits.  He repairs everything computer related down to iPhones, iPads, any brand and type of computer and other electronics.  My mom yelled at him when I was in high school because the dryer broke and had been simply repairing for over 20 years.  She wanted a new one.  It helped he spent 25 years with Bell Labs.  We had the first DOS computer in my community, a Zenith Heathkit. 

However, he refuses to get a smart phone.  Go figure! 

I enjoy fixing things myself, but career and life don't give me the time.

Now back to the regularly scheduled topic.  What were we talking about? 

He probably doesn't have enough friends on Facebook to justify having a smartphone, lol.

I'm up there with a lot of you in years.  Did spend 41 years in the IT industry, from coder to systems architect.  Automation, in general,  is dehumanizing.  I have an old PC which does the job (like now) and a stupid phone with receives and makes calls; no text, etc.

Get along just fine in this automated society.

And, even after 41 years, I still don't like computers and automation ... DCS and TMCC is about the limit for me in that category. 

:-)

"We had the greatest time and country. "

Every generation thinks and says that.  It's part of getting to be older,  I think.  Born in 1948 myself.  Just glad to still be here, and enjoying the benefits of modern life, including smartphones.  

I communicate with our adult children a lot more regularly than I did with my own parents decades ago when only snail mail and landline were available. Mostly email and texting these days.  Good for communicating when you are trying to meet someone at the airport, amongst other things.  

Not to mention that life expectancy has never been longer, and children who used to die of acute lymphocytic leukemia, the most common childhood cancer,  at a rate of 100% when I was a young man are now surviving at a rate of 90% now.  I'll take today over 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, etc. any day.

Be grateful you weren't born in 1890 when life expectancy was about 40 years, give or take, and 5-10% of children never made it to adulthood.

Landsteiner posted:

"We had the greatest time and country. "

Every generation thinks and says that.  It's part of getting to be older,  I think.  Born in 1948 myself.  Just glad to still be here, and enjoying the benefits of modern life, including smartphones.  

I communicate with our adult children a lot more regularly than I did with my own parents decades ago when only snail mail and landline were available. Mostly email and texting these days.  Good for communicating when you are trying to meet someone at the airport, amongst other things.  

Not to mention that life expectancy has never been longer, and children who used to die of acute lymphocytic leukemia, the most common childhood cancer,  at a rate of 100% when I was a young man are now surviving at a rate of 90% now.  I'll take today over 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, etc. any day.

Be grateful you weren't born in 1890 when life expectancy was about 40 years, give or take, and 5-10% of children never made it to adulthood.

I'm with you on this one. Im not as old as you guys but I never really cared for the 80's and some 90's technology wise. I remember sitting by the radio or tv waiting for a good song or movie to hit the record button instead of just downloading it or not being able to keep in touch with family or friends in Europe very much because there was a thing called long distance and snail mail which was a chore to use. Now I can keep in touch with everyone and my parents can see their Grand kids over Skype whenever they want. 

sdmann posted:

As for Sunset Models / 3rd Rail and GGD, we are a boutique model producer /  importer, and we can expand and contract with this market or that.  It can be in a warehouse with employees or at home with just me and my wife. That's how my Dad ran the business for the first 5 years.

As long as we are having fun, we will keep producing models for interested customers. For me, my hobby is running this business. Can't ask for a better job.

It shows.  

I tend to be in the younger range of people in the hobby, being 30. I may not have a lot of equipment, and I am already thinking about redoing my current layout. My 5 year old loves running my Polar Express set I have, or being a tunnel when I run my RailKing 4-4-0 steam engine. I grew up with computers mostly and I do have a smart phone. I also tend to get a new phone every two years. Though I do know what a rotary style phone is. I had a landline phone growing up. I don't think any of the major companies for model trains are going to end in the very near future, I enjoy my trains. 

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