Would anyone care to guess what the market share is per manufacturer???

Well, we certaintly have plenty of marketing experts here to give us the answer. However, are we talking "O" only...or the real world?

Since most of the companies don't release sales figures, we can only guess.  And what what would be the point of that?

It's Friday and we're on a train forum, why not...

It's a toy train forum, O course!

O gauge only... here goes, based on $ revenue. Train companies, only, no track, scenery, etc.

And only cause it's Friday and I'm bored.

Lionel           53%

MTH            27%

Weaver          5%

3rd Rail/GGD  10%

Atlas           3%

Others           2%

No!  Nor do I care.

You must have cared enough to tell us you don't care!! 

If you don't care then DON'T POST

It just seems odd guessing something you can't know. 

On the other hand, no one can be wrong!

Guesses? No interest at all.

Verifiable data? Yes, I would find that minor-league interesting.

BTW - tr18 seems to have left out Williams, a very big fish in our tiny pond.

David, I completely forgot about Williams. Is your 9% based on MSRP or Closeout prices

3rd Rail may not do a lot of volume but everything they do cost $1000+

Since the title says "care to guess" 

Here is my guess.

Lionel = 86.66% 

The remaining 13.34% shared among everyone else.

Sounds good to me!!!  

YEA Let these guys talk about whatever they want to talk about.

Lionel 35%

MTH 35%

Others 30%

As they are all private company's we will never know who has the hot hand nor who is profitable.

Their solvency could be an issue on your pre-orders. Lets say you place an order for several engines with your favorite manufacturer and they go belly. COuld you get your money back??

Well, if one ventures back to the time of the settlement of the lawsuit between Lionel and MTH, it was stated then that Lionel had 60% of the O gauge market and MTH had 30% of it.

I don't think too much has changed since 2007. A few points one way or another, but a 15% drop... highly unlikely. Since that time, Lionel has announced Legacy and their starter set line continues to grow every year.

Mike Wolf said the lawsuit hurt MTH in many ways, including declining sales. This might explain why MTH has put a lot more effort into their HO line and their European trains. From all accounts, the European trains have done very well, and their HO line is gaining repect. Not to mention their purchase of the S-Helper tooling. Mike at one time said the Railking line was the best selling of the MTH catalog... who knows now. The semi-scale lines of Railking have been blurred with so much of the older scale Premiere line tooling becoming the Railking line.

Atlas has been plagued by severe production problems after the big Sanda Kan shakeup, so it's unlikely their share has grown all that much. If anything, the production problems Atlas has had have probably benefitted Weaver. And given the smaller line up and very low production numbers, probably 3% for 3rd Rail is being very generous.

It's possible Williams could be growing since being under Bachmann. Yes, there have been quite a few blowouts (with some roads being very hard now to find new). But between all the Williams and RMT sales, one notices very few separate sale conventional lower-end locomotives being cataloged from Lionel.

I'm sure Lionel still has the leading position, just from what I see being stocked in hobby shops and listed in the magazine advertisements... the vast majority being Lionel.

You win!

Based upon what is stocked in Hobby stores and online, you don't see too many hobby stores that have the majority of their stock being MTH or other brands.  Generally, most hobby stores have more Lionel in stock and then some MTH.  My opinion is 60% Lionel, 25% MTH, 15% others. 

I can't see that changing in the future.  Lionel continues to be more innovated bring out more new stuff and also they have a stronger name recognition over the other manufactures which helps them to be the lead in the market.  Ken  

Vapor ware - 70%

unfounded rumors - 26%

Lionel - 2%

MTH - 1%

Atlas - see vapor ware 

Jeff C

Go back before the lawsuit to about 2000 and have Mike Wolf claiming that MTH passed Lionel in Sales..so I'd say it was MTH 50% & Lionel 40%

He also claimed he was 6' 2"

Hear Hear TR18.  I'm sick and tired of cyberbullies like Hot Water getting behind their keyboards and anonymously dismissing topics that others might find interesting just because they don't find it interesting.  People like HotWater are what kill forums from being cordial places for a free and easy exchange of information.

I wouldn't venture so far as to call them cyber bullies, you have to actually care enough to let them be bullies in the electronic world.  Keyboard commandos maybe or even keyboard gangsters, with either being humorous they also summarily dismiss them for what they are.  Calling them bullies gives them way to much stature of which they are undeserving.

As for the guesses, it could be anywhere along the spectrum.  It would be interesting if there were some good educated guesses based on numbers somewhere.  The problem comes from deciding whose numbers would be most accurate when making your educated guess.

So here is my uneducated guess based on the wind blowing outside and it being very cold and wet.

Lionel and MTH fairly close with Lionel in the lead.  Atlas and Williams fighting for 3rd, Weaver, GGD, and others somewhere after that.

Anyway, happy weekend to all and may we all stay warm.

I have no idea, but I do think it is a very interesting question and I would like to know the real numbers.

In the mean time it is interesting to know what everyone thinks.

thanks for asking!

HAY HW - No likee no clickee.

The only thing I care to guess is that 100% of the market is shared by the various manufacturers.

No, wait!  I hereby also guess that MTH has a larger percentage share of the HO market than it does of the O market.

Pete

This is an interesting topic, if someone were overly concerned; he or she would ask each of us to email to them a list of how many cars/engines of each manufacturer in their inventory not by name only 50 Lionel rolling stock 20 engines 50 MKT 50 Atlas etc.

Not overly concerned but 96% of my toys is Lionel

Brent

not so sure about the MTH HO market, starting to see blowout sales on MTH HO

I'd guess the 2007-08 figures that were made public in bankruptcy court of Lionel about 60%, MTH 30%, everybody else about 10% are not far from today's numbers in three rail O gauge. K-Line at its peak was no more than 10% as I recall, to give you an idea of what number three was doing at the time of their demise.

HO overall is still dominated by Athearn, Bachmann, Kato, Atlas, Walthers, etc. and for locomotives, Broadway Limited and MTH likely have  relatively small (<10% each) market shares based upon advertising expenditures in the magazines.

Go back before the lawsuit to about 2000 and have Mike Wolf claiming that MTH passed Lionel in Sales..so I'd say it was MTH 50% & Lionel 40%

Keep dreaming Chuck. The 60% Lionel / 30% MTH was made at some point of the trial and I don't recall Mike Wolf being in disagreement with it (and qwhen he disagreed, he let people know about it).

In statements made by Mike Wolf himself during the lawsuit period, he stated himself that MTH sales dropped significantly during that time period, forcing amoungst other cutbacks, the layoffs of half his stateside workforce.

Reference the thread about MTH parts and read how there are only two people handing parts. I'd say things are still pretty tight. I highly doubt MTH has bounced back in O gauge since the lawsuit period.

And if sales and market share in 3-rail have/are increasing for MTH, then why is all the effort going into Eurpoean trains and the HO line? Mike Wolf is no fool. If he was making loads of money in 3-rail right now, that's where all his effort would be.

I'm not knocking MTH. They make a fine product for certain. And MTH certainly has loyal customers. But let's be real... the market belongs to Lionel, which is why in the early days, Mike said it was his dream to actually own Lionel. Even he knows the power of the name.

All this speculation, and not a single hard fact.  If you folks are REALLY interested in finding out this information, go to a site like Piers.com, pay your money, and start analyzing the import records of all of companies that compete in this market. 

Even at that, you won't be able to break things out that tell you what the market share is for just O scale / gauge, as all of the major importers for O scale / gauge compete in two or more scales (MTH, Lionel, Weaver, 3rd Rail, Atlas, Bachmann). 

Those that also manufacture some of their product domestically, such as Weaver,  I have no idea how you would determine what their total revenue would be when they are privately owned.

But feel free to carry on with heresay and conjecture.  For some, that is a hobby in itself.  I've even wasted about 15 minutes on this thread that I'll never get back.  

GNNPNUT 

Amen!

ROTFL!!!!!

Cyber bullies?  Keyboard Commandos?  Keyboard gangsters?  Wow.  Isn't the concept of a FORUM based on both positive and negative feedback to the subject matter?  This isn't the first time, nor will it be the last time that pros and cons will be written about a thread.

Lionel--45%

MTH--30%

Williams--9%

Weaver--8%

3rd rail--3%

Atlas--5%

my guess and only a guess would be

Lionel 45%

MTH 30%

Atlas 9%

Williams 8%

Weaver 5%

3rd Rail 3%

Lionel--43%

MTH----37%

Williams--15%

Weaver--28%

3rd rail--33%

Atlas-----57%

Other----11%

Ebay ----13%

I don't believe ebay is considered a manufacturer, though I'm certain they move a lot of O Gauge product