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Sunday Oct. 18th 52 deg. Partly Cloudy

Monday Oct. 19th 56 deg. Sunny

Tuesday Oct. 20th 68 deg. Sunny

Wednesday Oct. 21st 72 deg. Mostly Sunny

Thursday Oct. 22nd 71 deg. Partly cloudy 

Friday Oct. 23rd 65 deg. Sunny

Saturday Oct. 24th 64 deg. Sunny

Last edited by eddie g
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Originally Posted by eddie g:

Sunday Oct. 18th 57 deg. Sunny

Monday Oct. 19th 61 deg. Partly cloudy

Eddie, thanks for posting this but historically, forecasts of more than a week aren't that accurate and as Jack noted, the majority of attendees can only come for that Thursday thru Saturday span at most rather than making it a week long vacation event.

Last edited by ogaugeguy
Originally Posted by Marty Fitzhenry:

Bill has it right.  I pay no attention to weather people today.  Weather forcasting was better 50 years ago.

Why I wouldn't go that far, Marty does have a point.  Remember seven days out they had that last hurricane hitting the east coast.  Everyone was sure the mid Atlantic states were going to get hit and boy what happen?  Went out to sea and no one said anything about how wrong their computer models were.

 

Another example is the last three years the National weather service has been pushing their climate change BS and stating how the Northeast is going to have a warmer than normal winter.  Well, the last three years have been record breaking for cold and snow fall.   I give more credibility to the Farmers Almanac than I do to a Gov run hack agency.

 

But with that said, looks like you guys will have better weather(if it holds to predictions) than I had last April.  Cold and windy it was.

Last edited by superwarp1
Originally Posted by superwarp1:
Originally Posted by Marty Fitzhenry:

Bill has it right.  I pay no attention to weather people today.  Weather forcasting was better 50 years ago.

Why I wouldn't go that far, Marty does have a point.  Remember seven days out they had that last hurricane hitting the east coast.  Everyone was sure the mid Atlantic states were going to get hit and boy what happen?  Went out to sea and no one said anything about how wrong their computer models were.

 

Hurricanes are notorious for always being a roll of the dice. Sometimes they move in the usual arc across the tropics and loop back alongside the east coast, and sometimes they stagger across the ocean like drunken sailors. Sometimes they do both. I've seen more than one instance where a hurricane's path made literal loop-de loops. Sandy basically came straight up out of the Caribbean and hooked a left turn into the Northeast:

 

I think much of the huhhub about H. Joachim was that it reached Cat 4, and the eastern seaboard was within the "cone of uncertainty". Much of the preparation was in mind of Sandy, in which there were a number of highly-publicized "caught with one's pants down" incidents (not the least of which was NJ Transit leaving a large chunk of its fleet in a sea-level yard in the Meadowlands).

 

For what its worth, I use the National Weather Service forecasts as a guide. Since they don't depend on ratings like local news broadcasts, their output is devoid of sensationalism. During Joachim's approach, their forecasts never gave me the impression that it was much of a threat, only that its path was taking it farther and farther out to sea as its "due date" neared.

 

Looking at the NWS' behind-the-scenes-ish "forecast discussion" link over time shows a lot of "interesting stuff" that crops up in the various computer models that never makes it to the official forecast because they're of such low probability that they often wash out as time marches on. I've also seen significant weather events come to pass that started out as insignificant-looking wiggles in long-term outlooks (though in my observation, if they do come to pass, they tend to arrive a day or so later than when initially forecast). So it pays to eyeball forecasts every day in case something emerges from the noise.

 

My guess is that even though any competent forecaster knows that predictions more than two or three days out are dice rolls, there'd be a nationwide uproar if weather forecasts were capped at 24-36 hours. We as a society have come to expect 7-day outlooks, even though the information presented at their outer limits has seldom been  anything more than a curiosity.

 

---PCJ

Last edited by RailRide

From FOX 43 in YORK....but it will change just like you change your underwear.

 

         Partly Cloudy

34° 52°
Precip 10% Wind WNW at 13mph
 
Partly cloudy, breezy, and chilled.  Few flakes/drops NW.
Mon 19
Mostly Sunny
32° 54°
Precip 0% Wind WSW at 6mph
Tue 20
Sunny
38° 64°
Precip 0% Wind S at 9mph
Wed 21
Mostly Sunny
44° 68°
Precip 0% Wind S at 8mph
Thu 22
Partly Cloudy
48° 68°
Precip 20% Wind SSW at 8mph
Fri 23
Sunny
40° 62°
Precip 0% Wind N at 10mph
Sat 24
Sunny
42° 61°
Precip 10% Wind NE at 5mph

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